Trade idea
Trade idea
Taking a short position on MU and buying at a lower price to take a leg
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Entry / triggertraded MU pre-market with a short position
SpeakerSasnov
high confidenceVerify in video at 02:07 ↗
Episode
Teflon Markets, a Walk Down Y'all St. & Tony's Trades | 7.16 | One Lucky Dog LIVE!
Watch full episode ↗Trade ideas
Trade idea
Trade idea Short 70 puts in Netflix
Netflix is similar to Nike and has been difficult to trade
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StrategyShort 70 puts in Netflix
Entry / triggerIf Netflix acts during the day today
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
high confidenceVerify in video at 05:36 ↗
Trade idea
Trade idea selling puts
software stocks are being beaten up and offer advantageous prices
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Strategyselling puts
Entry / triggerstocks that were grossly oversold
Target / exitadvantageous prices
SpeakerThe Bat
high confidenceVerify in video at 12:02 ↗
Trade idea
Trade idea short strangle
high volatility in Meta (Meta) is a good trade opportunity
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Strategyshort strangle
Entry / triggerhigh volatility
Speakerspeaker
high confidenceVerify in video at 25:59 ↗
Trade idea
Trade idea
Day traders should focus on futures markets and avoid fading intraday moves unless it's a strong reversal.
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Time horizonIntraday trading should avoid fading moves unless it's a strong reversal. Longer-term plays can be considered for stocks with potential.
Entry / triggerLook at futures markets as the leader, not individual stocks. Avoid fading intraday moves unless it's a strong reversal.
Invalidation / stopAvoid buying individual stocks that are down significantly intraday. Focus on longer-term plays for stocks that show potential.
SpeakerTony
Risks
- Fading weak moves can lead to losses
- Overtrading in volatile markets
high confidenceVerify in video at 28:39 ↗
Trade idea
Trade idea call diagonal with call skew
relatively cheap
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Strategycall diagonal with call skew
Assetoptions
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonmonth of August and September
Entry / triggerif you're a little bit bullish
Target / exitplay a little bit
Invalidation / stopif you're a little bit bearish
SpeakerTony Battista
Structure / legs
- September 145
- August 165
Risks
- if you're a little bit bearish, you can do a put diagonal, but you'll pay a lot more
high confidenceVerify in video at 34:33 ↗
Trade idea
IBM call diagonal spread
long bullish trade
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Strategycall diagonal spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizon60ish days
Entry / triggerIBM stock price
Target / exit225
Invalidation / stopIBM has a big move lower or higher
SpeakerSosnoff
Structure / legs
- September 225 call
- August 240 call
Risks
- max risk $7.25
- not a trade to put on when IBM is higher
high confidenceVerify in video at 37:28 ↗
Trade idea
Trade idea put ratio spread
Micron is a favorable trade
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Strategyput ratio spread
Entry / triggerMicron coming out as your favorite trade
SpeakerTony
high confidenceVerify in video at 41:50 ↗
Insights
Insight
Market Behavior of IPO Stocks
The transcript discusses how certain stocks, like SpaceX and Cerebrus, initially surged above their IPO prices but have since retreated below them. This suggests a pattern where initial hype and demand may not be sustained, leading to a correction. The speaker notes that this is an interesting observation, indicating that market sentiment can shift rapidly, and that some investors may have bought in during the hype and are now facing losses.
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Applicable when
- IPO stocks
- market sentiment
- correction patterns
Limitations
- Not applicable to all stocks
- Depends on market conditions
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:00:21 ↗
Insight
Profit Taking Strategy
Profit taking decisions are not based on duration but on the success of the trade itself. The speaker emphasizes taking profits early if the trade is successful, moving on to the next trade. They also mention that profit taking is not about letting profits run but about managing trades effectively.
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Applicable when
- Active Trading
- Profit Management
Limitations
- Not applicable to passive investors
- Requires active monitoring of trades
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:14:13 ↗
Insight
Recognizing when to exit a trade
The speaker emphasizes the importance of recognizing when to close a trade, especially when it's not yielding significant returns. They suggest that traders should evaluate if they would still enter the trade if they didn't have it, highlighting the need for a clear rationale for holding a position.
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Applicable when
- When a trade is not yielding significant returns
- When the trade is not aligned with the trader's strategy
Limitations
- Requires self-reflection and discipline
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:19:45 ↗
Q&A
Q&A
What does the divergence tell you and does it change how you would trade any of them from here?
The divergence indicates that the market may not be reacting to earnings as expected, and it may affect trading strategies.
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Actionable takeawayThe divergence may indicate a need to adjust trading strategies based on market reactions to earnings.
high confidenceVerify in video at 00:11 ↗
Q&A
What's a Prada market?
A market where everything is overvalued or inflated.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is using 'Prada market' as a metaphor for a market where prices are inflated.
high confidenceVerify in video at 05:02 ↗
Q&A
What does the divergence between banks and IBM tell you?
The divergence suggests that IBM is underperforming relative to the market, prompting the speaker to consider buying software stocks at discounted prices.
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Actionable takeawayThe divergence indicates a potential buying opportunity in software stocks that have been beaten down.
high confidenceVerify in video at 11:30 ↗
Q&A
Is there any portion of your holdings that you protect from shorter-term trading, or is any position you own vulnerable to a trade?
The speaker mentions having short puts in SPY that they don't touch, and also holds stocks in companies they built that are now public, which they don't trade or hedge.
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Actionable takeawaySome positions are held long-term without short-term interference, such as stocks in companies they built.
high confidenceVerify in video at 15:32 ↗
Q&A
What's the Iron Bowl?
The Iron Bowl is a rivalry game between the University of Alabama and the University of Auburn, typically played on the day after Thanksgiving. It's a significant event in college football, with the town shutting down and being a huge deal.
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Actionable takeawayThe Iron Bowl is a major college football rivalry game between Alabama and Auburn, usually held on the day after Thanksgiving, with significant community involvement and importance.
high confidenceVerify in video at 23:09 ↗
Q&A
How did you find the trade in Meta with high volatility?
The trade was found on the high IVR list, not the high option volume list. The user might have been looking at the wrong index (e.g., Nasdaq or S&P 100) or sorted the list incorrectly.
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Actionable takeawayUse the high IVR list and ensure the correct index is selected when searching for high volatility trades.
high confidenceVerify in video at 23:36 ↗
Q&A
How would you advise a day trader to set their platform up to not get caught on the wrong side of that flow every day?
Focus on futures markets as the leader, avoid fading intraday moves unless it's a strong reversal, and avoid buying individual stocks that are down significantly intraday.
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Actionable takeawayDay traders should focus on futures markets and avoid fading intraday moves unless it's a strong reversal.
high confidenceVerify in video at 28:02 ↗
Q&A
What is the probability of Lucid declaring bankruptcy before July 16th, 2028?
It's very small.
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Actionable takeawayThe probability of Lucid declaring bankruptcy before July 16th, 2028 is very small.
high confidenceVerify in video at 33:21 ↗
Q&A
Would you go to a side knot?
The speaker asked if the listener would go to a side knot for a discount.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker offered a discount if the listener agreed to a side knot.
high confidenceVerify in video at 41:30 ↗
Q&A
What are you talking about?
I did a trade that it that's a week long. It'll be instant gratification. It's the baby.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is referring to a trade that takes a week and provides instant gratification.
high confidenceVerify in video at 42:26 ↗
Q&A
Is the decision to take profits based on duration, price, or something else involved in that?
The decision to take profits is not solely based on duration or price, but involves other factors as well.
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Actionable takeawayProfit-taking decisions involve more than just duration or price; other factors must be considered.
high confidenceVerify in video at 47:41 ↗
Q&A
Does the collar strategy sell calls against the underlying stock and buy puts?
Yes, the collar strategy involves selling calls and buying puts to limit both upside and downside risk.
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Actionable takeawayThe collar strategy is a way to limit both upside and downside risk by selling calls and buying puts.
high confidenceVerify in video at 57:54 ↗
Q&A
Does the new stock exchange hurt traders?
The speaker states that the new exchange does not hurt traders and that it is beneficial for the market by increasing competition and potentially lowering fees. However, it is noted that for retail traders, the impact is minimal.
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Actionable takeawayThe new exchange is seen as a positive development for the market, increasing competition and potentially lowering fees, but it does not directly impact retail traders.
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:02:23 ↗
Q&A
Why would somebody start an exchange?
People start exchanges because they can be worth a lot of money. Exchanges provide value by allowing firms to offset other market activities and reduce hedging costs. They also create competition, leading to lower fees and better price improvement for customers.
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Actionable takeawayExchanges can be profitable due to the value they provide in offsetting other market activities and reducing hedging costs. They also drive competition, leading to better outcomes for customers.
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:05:52 ↗
Q&A
How do you know when to take profits?
The speaker states that profit taking decisions are not based on duration but on the success of the trade itself. They also mention that profit taking is not about letting profits run but about managing trades effectively.
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Actionable takeawayTake profits early if the trade is successful and move on to the next trade.
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:14:13 ↗
Q&A
Can the statistical and machine learning approaches be combined?
The speaker acknowledges the question and states that it's an ongoing debate, referencing Nassim Taleb's work on black swan events and the importance of risk management. They emphasize the need for a consistent, high-probability approach with limited profitability.
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Actionable takeawayCombining statistical and machine learning approaches requires careful consideration of risk and the potential for outlier events.
medium confidenceVerify in video at 1:21:58 ↗
Q&A
What do you think of single stock futures recently introduced by the CME?
The speaker is skeptical about single stock futures, noting their rocky history and past failures. They mention that these futures have not worked well in the past and are unlikely to succeed again, despite the CME's attempts. The speaker also notes that the CFTC does not allow the CME to offer them directly, but other firms can.
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Actionable takeawaySingle stock futures have a history of failure and are unlikely to succeed again, despite recent attempts by the CME.
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:26:53 ↗
Q&A
What is the schedule for the live podcast with Dylan Ratigan?
The live podcast with Dylan Ratigan is scheduled for today at 11:00 and can be heard on Spotify or on X.
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Actionable takeawayThe live podcast with Dylan Ratigan is scheduled for today at 11:00 and can be heard on Spotify or on X.
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:28:07 ↗