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SEASONALITY, Insider Selling & TRADES TO AVOID | 8.10 | One Lucky Dog

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Trade ideas

Trade idea

Trade idea

The market is heating up, and there's potential for a fun week of trading.

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Time horizonFun week trading wise because I think we've been uh we've been heating up a little. It's taken 7 months. Uh we're heating up a little bit.
Entry / triggerIf the expected move was 20 bucks for a whole month but we had it on the right side. It worked out.
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Trade idea

Trade idea Short strangle on SpaceX

Volatility in SpaceX is unsustainable and will contract into the 70s

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StrategyShort strangle on SpaceX
Entry / triggerVolatility contraction in the 70s
Target / exit10-15 more handles of volatility contraction
SpeakerTony Batista
Trade idea

Trade idea

sell into strength

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Time horizonAugust expiration
Entry / triggersell into strength
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea

Trade idea long diagonal spreads

short-term, long diagonal spreads can be used on unleveraged products

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Strategylong diagonal spreads
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggeron unleveraged products
Target / exitshort-term profit
SpeakerTonyy
Trade idea

Trade idea Zero day put spread in the S&P

Taking profits quickly on strong days can be effective, but traders must be cautious of market reversals.

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StrategyZero day put spread in the S&P
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStrong market conditions
Target / exitProfit from the highs of the day
Invalidation / stopMarket sell-offs or unexpected volatility
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks
  • Market reversals
  • Unexpected volatility
Trade idea

SPY call spread

high probability profit with a wide spread

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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember 18th
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket up
Target / exithigh probability profit
Invalidation / stopmarket moves beyond expected range
SpeakerTony AI
Structure / legs
  • 800
  • 805
Risks
  • market moves beyond expected range
Trade idea

Microsoft Sell a call spread with strikes 535 and 545

The trade is based on the expectation that the stock will not move significantly beyond the strike prices

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StrategySell a call spread with strikes 535 and 545
AssetEquity
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price is near all-time highs
Target / exitCollect around $1.10 to $1.15
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly higher or lower
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Structure / legs
  • 535
  • 545
Risks
  • If the stock moves beyond the strike prices, the trade could result in a loss
Trade idea

Trade idea calendar spreads

short puts in the yen can be a viable strategy for profiting from volatility

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Strategycalendar spreads
Assetcurrency
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort puts in the yen
Target / exitprofit from volatility
SpeakerTom
Risks
  • market direction
  • volatility changes
Trade idea

Trade idea Counter spreads

Counter spreads are a low-risk strategy that can be used to make a small profit with minimal risk.

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StrategyCounter spreads
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the front month volatility is higher than the back month volatility
Target / exitProfit from the difference in volatility
Invalidation / stopIf the front month volatility is significantly lower than the back month volatility
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks
  • Market volatility can change rapidly
  • Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea

Trade idea Writing out of the money calls against the OTC DS market

To reduce basis by writing out of the money calls against the OTC DS market

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StrategyWriting out of the money calls against the OTC DS market
Entry / triggerIf you're a big fund and you're trying to reduce basis
Trade idea

Trade idea

short S&P futures and NASDAQ futures

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Entry / triggersell S&P futures and NASDAQ futures
SpeakerSNOV

Insights

Insight

Profit Taking Strategy

The speaker suggests taking profits quickly in a range, with 25 to 50% or 35 to 45% being statistically better. This indicates a strategy of locking in gains early to avoid potential losses.

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Applicable when
  • Range-bound markets
  • Short-term trading
Limitations
  • Does not specify exact market conditions or instruments
Insight

Risk Management in Trading

The speaker emphasizes the importance of managing risk by focusing on strategies that involve minimal risk, such as counter spreads, where the risk is proportional to the potential reward. This approach is recommended for beginners to learn the fundamentals of trading without exposing themselves to significant financial loss.

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Applicable when
  • beginner traders
  • low-risk strategies
Limitations
  • Not applicable to high-risk strategies
  • Requires understanding of market dynamics
Insight

Control What You Can

The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on controllable factors in trading and investing, rather than worrying about uncontrollable systemic risks. They suggest that successful individuals should concentrate on decisions they can influence.

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Applicable when
  • trading
  • investing
Limitations
  • Systemic risks are not entirely avoidable, but they should not be a primary concern for individual traders or investors.

Q&A

Q&A

Did we trade over 7,800?

The NASDAQ traded over 7,800, but the S&P 500 did not. The S&P 500 was at 7796781, unchanged.

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Actionable takeawayThe NASDAQ traded over 7,800, but the S&P 500 did not.
Q&A

Bonds are down. They're weak. 109 and change. 10906. Down six ticks. Is this going to hurt her?

Bonds being down indicates mortgage rates are likely at their highest levels, which could hurt the daughter's mortgage rates.

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Actionable takeawayHigh bond yields suggest higher mortgage rates, which could be costly for the daughter's mortgage.
Q&A

Does the market always rally in January?

The markets are more random than previously thought, and seasonality is not a reliable strategy.

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Actionable takeawaySeasonality is not a reliable strategy for trading.
Q&A

What is the logic to long stock versus long calls?

Long calls have premiums attached, even if deep in the money, while long stock is a 50-50 shot with 100 deltas. Long stock uses more buying power than long calls, but buying the call and selling the put can use less buying power.

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Actionable takeawayLong calls are costlier due to premiums, while long stock has higher leverage but more risk. Combining calls and puts can reduce capital usage.
Q&A

What would be the most liquid underlyings to use?

Leveraged ETFs like SQQQ or TQQQ are mentioned as having high volume and liquidity.

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Actionable takeawayLeveraged ETFs like SQQQ or TQQQ are considered liquid underlyings for trading.
Q&A

On days like Friday, would you cover when the market is so strong?

The speaker suggests covering the spread before noon for a small profit, emphasizing the importance of taking profits quickly and not overthinking.

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Actionable takeawayTraders should consider taking profits quickly on strong days to avoid potential losses.
Q&A

Will there be another $1 trillion IPO in 2026?

56% of viewers said yes, 25% said no, and 25% said no. The speaker mentioned that Anthropic and Open AI are on the trillion-dollar path, but the majority of the audience believed it would not happen.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker's audience was split on the likelihood of another $1 trillion IPO in 2026, with a majority (56%) believing it would occur.
Q&A

Why did you choose to go outside the expected move for the SPY call spread?

To maximize the probability of a pop profit by positioning outside the expected move.

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Actionable takeawayPositioning outside the expected move can increase the probability of a pop profit in call spreads.
Q&A

Is buying the back month and selling the front month the best approach to take for calendar spreads?

Calendar spreads can be effective for small accounts, but the speaker suggests exploring diagonal spreads for better risk-reward profiles. They emphasize the importance of managing risk and profit targets.

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Actionable takeawayConsider diagonal spreads for better risk-reward profiles, especially with small accounts.
Q&A

What is the size of the OTC derivatives market?

The OTC derivatives market is currently valued at 846 trillion dollars, with the speaker noting that this is a significant increase from June 2025.

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Actionable takeawayThe OTC derivatives market is one of the largest financial markets, with a significant increase in size compared to previous years.
Q&A

Is writing calls against a large position risky?

The speaker suggests that writing calls against a large position is not risky to the market, but it could be risky for the counterparty. They emphasize that the market is not typically involved in such large trades.

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Actionable takeawayWriting calls against a large position may not be risky to the market, but it could be risky for the counterparty.
Q&A

What was the stock market value in 2008?

The stock market was trading at 7,000 in 2008.

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Actionable takeawayThe stock market value in 2008 was significantly lower than current levels.
Q&A

Should insider selling make anyone nervous?

The speaker suggests that insider selling should not necessarily make anyone nervous, as it could be due to tax obligations. They also mention that insiders might think prices are high, but this is not a definitive indicator.

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Actionable takeawayInsider selling may be driven by factors like tax obligations and does not always indicate a negative market signal.
Q&A

Have you ever used market indicators such as trend T R I N or P call puts in the call ratio, things like that, for entry or exits or risk on, risk off, that kind of thing?

The speaker mentions there are 8,000 advanced decline, unchanged stocks indicators and that they don't look at them for an opening trade. They also mention not looking at tren or any of those things in 30 years.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker does not use market indicators like trend T R I N or P call puts for entry or exits, and has not used them in 30 years.
Q&A

Are there certain financial products that we stay away from investing no matter what?

The speaker lists penny stocks, pink sheet stocks, meme stocks, meme coins, vanity coins, structured ETFs with high fees, and private structured products as financial products to avoid. They emphasize the risks associated with these products, such as high fees, lack of transparency, and potential for significant losses.

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Actionable takeawayAvoid high-risk financial products like penny stocks, meme stocks, and structured ETFs with high fees due to their potential for significant losses and lack of transparency.
Q&A

Is that good? Is that what it is?

It's about cryptocasino gambling, which the speaker considers gambling for fun, not a serious investment.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker views crypto casino gambling as a form of entertainment, not a viable investment strategy.
Q&A

You think about buying a little volatility besides instead of selling the market?

Never. I sell volatility.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker does not recommend buying volatility, instead advocating for selling it.