Trade idea
ORCL puts
short puts can be profitable if the stock rises
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Strategyputs
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerOracle's stock price is lower than the strike price
Target / exitprofit from the stock rising
Invalidation / stopif the stock falls below the strike price
Speakerunknown
Risks- if the stock falls below the strike price
Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Silver is currently at 10.50, and the speaker suggests that the price movement is 'ridiculous,' indicating a potential overcorrection. The speaker implies that the price may drop to a lower level, making a short position a viable strategy. The speaker also mentions that there is no upper limit circuit breaker in the front month, suggesting that the market may continue to move in the short-term direction. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the price will revert to a more reasonable level.
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Strategyshorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver is at 10.50
Target / exitsilver drops to a lower level
Invalidation / stopsilver continues to rise
SpeakerTom
Risks- silver could continue to rise
- market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker mentions that silver has experienced a significant move upwards, reaching $10.50, and expresses a desire for it to drop to $80. This indicates a short-term bearish bias. The speaker also references a previous ratio calculation, suggesting that the current price may be overvalued relative to gold. The trade idea is to short silver with a target at $80, given the potential for a correction based on the gold-to-silver ratio.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSilver price is above $10.50
Target / exitSilver price drops to $80
Invalidation / stopIf silver price rises above $110
Speakerunknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The trade may be invalidated if silver continues to rise above $110.
- The short-term nature of the trade requires quick execution and monitoring.
Trade idea
SPX contrarian
The market is currently in a phase of rapid upward movement, with significant volatility. The speaker suggests that the next downturn could be severe, potentially leading to a 2,000-point drop in the NASDAQ. This indicates a potential overbought condition, making a short position a viable contrarian strategy. The VIX levels suggest heightened uncertainty, supporting the idea that a correction is likely.
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Strategycontrarian
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is overbought and shows signs of a potential correction
Target / exit2,000 points down
Invalidation / stopIf the market continues to move upward without correction
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market may continue to move upward
- Volatility could lead to unexpected price swings
Trade idea
SPCE sell the news
The speaker believes that SpaceX is not priced to perfection and that there is still room for the stock to trade below its current price. The speaker suggests that the stock may trade at 135, which is below the current price of 220, indicating a potential short-term opportunity. The speaker also mentions that the market's reaction to news can be random, and that the stock may trade lower if the fundamentals do not support the current price.
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Strategysell the news
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the stock trades under the IPO price
Target / exit135
Invalidation / stopif the stock trades above 135
SpeakerJohn
Risks- Market volatility
- unexpected news
- change in fundamentals
Trade idea
MOO Shorting a stock that has experienced a significant upward move
The speaker shorted MOO after it had experienced a significant upward move, expecting a correction. The rationale is based on the belief that such rapid gains are unsustainable and the market may correct. The risk is that the stock could continue to rise, leading to a loss.
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StrategyShorting a stock that has experienced a significant upward move
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock has moved significantly upward in a short period
Target / exitPotential profit from the stock's downward correction
Invalidation / stopLoss if the stock continues to rise
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market continuation in the upward direction
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected news affecting the stock
Trade idea
Oil Strangles
The speaker believes that oil prices will revert to the 70-80 range by midyear due to the resolution of the Iran war. The current volatility is already priced in, so the best play is to short premium by selling strangles. This strategy is based on the expectation that the price will not continue to rise beyond the 125-130 range.
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StrategyStrangles
AssetCommodity
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonMidyear
Entry / triggerPrice is above the 70-80 range
Target / exitPrice reverts to the 70-80 range
Invalidation / stopIf the price continues to rise above 125 or 130, the trade may be invalidated.
SpeakerTimmer and Scott
Structure / legs- Sell puts at 65 or 70
- Sell calls above 125 or 130
Risks- The price may not revert to the 70-80 range.
- The market may continue to rise beyond the 125-130 range, invalidating the trade.
- Volatility may increase further, making the trade less effective.
Trade idea
USO selling calls
The speaker took a short position by selling calls on USO at 30 and 3040 when it hit a dark pool at 127 and 18 cents. The trade was based on the idea that dark pools could provide insights into market movements, and the speaker believed that the price action in dark pools could be used to inform trading decisions. The trade was executed with the expectation that the price would not move significantly beyond the dark pool levels.
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Strategyselling calls
AssetETF
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerUSO hit a dark pool at 127 and 18 cents
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Inability to execute trades at desired prices
Trade idea
Bloom Energy (BE) strangles
The speaker discusses trading Bloom Energy (BE) with a strategy involving strangles, noting that the stock has experienced significant volatility with +5% daily moves. The speaker mentions that the stock is currently at 119, with options expiring in 3 days showing a wide range. The speaker suggests that the volatility is around 120, and that spreads may not move significantly, so the strategy involves trading around mid-price. The speaker also notes that they would not trade anything naked in this environment due to the high volatility and risk.
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Strategystrangles
Assetstock
Expiration3 days
Time horizon3 days
Entry / triggerstock price at 119
Target / exit119
Invalidation / stop119
SpeakerMike
Risks- High volatility can lead to significant losses if the stock moves against the position.
- The speaker's strategy is based on personal experience and may not be suitable for all traders.
- The speaker does not provide specific details on the execution of the trade or the exact strike prices used.
Trade idea
SPY naked calls
Selling naked calls in SPY can provide a pure short delta exposure, capturing potential downside if the market declines. This strategy is suitable for traders who expect a pullback or consolidation phase, with the risk of losing if the market rallies. The trade should be managed with clear profit-taking levels based on the trader's risk tolerance.
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Strategynaked calls
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket pullback or consolidation
Target / exitprofit from short-term volatility
Invalidation / stoploss if market rallies
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market rally can lead to losses
- Volatility can increase the risk of large losses
Trade idea
NASDAQ Sell NASDAQ futures if the trade is considered extreme
The speaker suggests selling NASDAQ futures and buying Bitcoin futures if the trade is considered extreme. This indicates a belief that the current market conditions may be at an extreme, and the trade should be adjusted accordingly. The speaker's skepticism about the trade suggests a cautious approach to the strategy.
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StrategySell NASDAQ futures if the trade is considered extreme
Assetfutures
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerIf the trade is considered extreme
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerSpeaker 1
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect assessment of market extremes
- Potential for significant losses if the trade is not properly managed
Trade idea
SPOS shorting a rising asset
The speaker expressed dissatisfaction with a short position on SPOS, which had risen 75% before the show. This indicates a potential trade idea of shorting SPOS, with the expectation that the rally might not continue. The invalidation would be if the price continues to rise, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation of the trend.
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Strategyshorting a rising asset
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore the show started
Invalidation / stopmarket rally
SpeakerSpeaker 1
Risks- Market rally
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected news events
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker is in a strangle position on SLV, shorting the 101 call and the 119 put with 18 days to expiration. The position is considered misaligned due to the current price of SLV being $81, which is significantly below the put strike price of 119. The speaker is advised to recenter the trade by buying back the guts and adjusting the position to allow for some upside delta. The rationale is that the position is not aligned with the current market conditions, and the trader needs to adjust the strategy to account for the current price level and volatility.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationMarch 20th
Time horizon18 days
Entry / triggercurrent price of SLV is $81
Target / exitwaiting for IV to flatten
Invalidation / stopposition makes no sense due to misalignment between strike prices and current price
SpeakerDaniel
Structure / legs- short 101 call
- short 119 put
Risks- Misalignment between strike prices and current price
- Volatility may not flatten as expected
- Potential for large losses if the underlying asset moves significantly
Trade idea
Trade idea put spread
For a trader who has already engaged in a 'poor man's covered call' strategy, the next logical step is to consider selling a put spread slightly below the market. This strategy offers a similar risk profile while providing a defined risk and reward structure. It is suitable for traders who believe the stock will move upward but want to limit downside risk. The put spread allows for capturing premium while maintaining a directional bias.
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Strategyput spread
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the trader believes the stock will move upward
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the position
SpeakerScott
Risks- limited upside potential
- risk of assignment if the stock moves significantly against the position
Trade idea
Silver strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle on silver, which involves selling both a put and a call option at different strike prices. This strategy is suitable when the market is expected to remain within a certain range, allowing the seller to profit from the premium collected. The speaker also mentions that this trade is less aggressive compared to others, indicating a conservative approach.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is expected to remain within a certain range
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected
Invalidation / stopif the price moves outside the expected range
SpeakerVic
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movements
- slippage in illiquid markets
Trade idea
SPACEX volatility expansion
The speaker sold out-of-the-money calls and puts on SpaceX, anticipating a potential price decline or limited volatility expansion. The rationale is that a $10 move is considered a decent side move, and the speaker does not expect significant volatility expansion to the downside unless there is a big move. The trade idea is based on the expectation of a pullback or limited price movement, with the potential for profit if the price declines or remains stable.
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Strategyvolatility expansion
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket pullback or significant price movement
Target / exitprice decline of $10
Invalidation / stopprice increase or significant volatility expansion
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- out of the money calls
- out of the money puts
Risks- Market volatility could exceed expectations
- Price could move in the opposite direction
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
SPY straddle
The speaker suggests selling a straddle given the current market conditions, indicating a belief in a range-bound movement for the S&P 500. This strategy is typically used when the market is expected to trade within a narrow range, and the trader profits from the premium collected. The speaker's suggestion is based on the current market environment, which includes a meandering S&P and a relatively stable NASDAQ.
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Strategystraddle
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket conditions suggest a potential range-bound movement
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Risks- Market moves beyond the anticipated range
- Time decay of the options
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
BONDS sell puts on bonds
The speaker believes that rates are going higher, which would lead to lower bond prices. Therefore, selling puts on bonds is a strategy to profit from this expected decline. The speaker also mentions that bonds have underperformed other assets in the long term, suggesting a potential for further underperformance.
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Strategysell puts on bonds
Assetfixed_income
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the speaker believes rates are going higher, which implies bonds are going lower
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- market risk
- interest rate risk
- liquidity risk
Trade idea
ORCL call spread
The speaker proposed a call spread strategy for Oracle (ORCL) with a strike range of 280 to 320, expecting a price move of $25. The trade was structured to avoid naked shorting by using a spread, which reduces capital requirements and risk. The expected move was based on historical earnings performance and the current stock price of 211. The trade was considered a balanced approach to capitalize on potential price increases while limiting risk.
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerOracle stock at 211
Target / exit280
Invalidation / stopOracle stock price exceeding 320
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Oracle's stock price could exceed the upper strike price, leading to losses
- Market volatility could affect the expected price movement
- The trade requires careful monitoring to ensure the spread remains effective
Trade idea
N/A premium selling
In high volatility environments, selling out-of-the-money puts is a viable strategy to capitalize on elevated premium prices. The speaker emphasizes that this approach is straightforward and leverages the mechanics of premium selling, which has been refined over years. The trade is managed at 50% or 21dt, and the strategy is most effective when the market is getting 'a little cheaper' (i.e., volatility is moderate but not extreme). This is a contrarian approach, suitable for markets with high volatility, where put prices are high and basis is low.
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Strategypremium selling
Assetoptions
ExpirationN/A
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility (VIX > 20)
Target / exitmanaged at 50% or 21dt
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions shift to low volatility or significant price movement
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market conditions shift to low volatility
- Significant price movement
- Liquidity issues in options markets
Trade idea
GME volatility shorting
The trader made money back by shorting volatility during the GME meme stock explosion in 2021. The strategy was based on the expectation of a reversion to the mean in both volatility and price. The trader noted that the market's reversion to the mean in volatility and price was a key factor in the success of the trade. The trader also emphasized the importance of gravity in the market, suggesting that market corrections are a natural part of the trading environment.
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Strategyvolatility shorting
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerVolatility reversion to the mean
Target / exitVolatility reversion to the mean
Invalidation / stopVolatility not reverting to the mean
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility not reverting to the mean
- Market not correcting as expected
Trade idea
SLV volatility premium
The speaker is short volatility in the silver ETF (SLV) due to the recent sharp move in the price of silver. They are short both puts and calls, expecting the market to rally back $3, which would bring them back to a flat position. The strategy relies on the market moving in a specific direction, and the risk is that the market could move against the short position, leading to losses. The speaker acknowledges the illiquidity of the SI options and prefers SLV for better liquidity and execution.
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Strategyvolatility premium
Assetcommodity
ExpirationMarch
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket rally back $3
Target / exitflat position
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the short position
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market moves against the short position
- volatility increases
- liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
Micro Strategies selling out-of-the-money puts
The speaker suggests selling out-of-the-money puts on Micro Strategies due to the high volatility of the stock, which is tied to Bitcoin. The put strike price is set at 80, with a premium of 505-520. The speaker estimates an 85% probability of profit due to the low delta (15 delta) of the put, indicating a high likelihood of the stock price remaining above the strike price. The trade is considered a low-risk, high-reward opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
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Strategyselling out-of-the-money puts
Assetstock
Expiration43 days
Time horizonShort-term (43 days)
Entry / triggerMarket conditions as of the time of the transcript
Target / exitCollect premium from the put sale
Invalidation / stopIf the stock price rises significantly above the put strike price
SpeakerPhoenix in the Dog Pound
Risks- Significant downside if the stock price drops below the put strike price
- Market volatility could affect the effectiveness of the trade
Trade idea
IBM strangle
The speaker sold IBM puts and scalped them intraday, anticipating a potential downside move following a large pre-earnings announcement. The speaker noted that the stock had experienced a significant down move and that the downside risk had increased, leading to a shift in the pricing of puts. The trade was executed with the expectation of a short-term move, leveraging the volatility and market expectations around the earnings announcement.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly 22nd
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerpre-earnings announcement
Target / exitintraday scalp
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerTom
Risks- unexpected earnings results
- volatility spikes
- market sentiment shifts
Trade idea
TLT bearish option trade
If inflation remains sticky and long-term yields stay elevated, a bearish option trade in TLT is a valid strategy. This is because TLT is inversely correlated with bond yields, and a short position in TLT would benefit from rising yields. The speaker suggests that ZB or ZN are cleaner alternatives, but TLT is still a viable option for smaller positions.
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Strategybearish option trade
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerinflation remains sticky and long-term yields stay elevated
Invalidation / stopif inflation or yields move contrary to expectations
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected changes in inflation or yields
Trade idea
AAPL credit spread
The trade involves a short credit spread on Apple (AAPL) with the 220 calls short and 235 calls long. The strategy is based on the assumption that the stock will remain above 320, and the trader is bearish on the stock. The trade is managed by staying in the position unless the stock price moves significantly against the trade. The trader suggests that if the stock price is above 320, there is nothing to do, but if the stock price is below 320, the trader can sell out of the money put spread against it. The trade is considered a credit spread, and the trader is looking to collect the premium from the spread.
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Strategycredit spread
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonUntil expiration
Entry / triggerStock price above 320
Target / exitCredit received from the spread
Invalidation / stopIf the stock price moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerMark
Structure / legs- short 220 calls
- long 235 calls
Risks- If the stock price moves significantly against the trade, the trader may lose money
- The trade is subject to the expiration date, and the trader may need to adjust the position if the stock price moves significantly against the trade
Trade idea
NFLX put ladder
The trade involves selling a put ladder on Netflix, which is expected to have a high probability of profit (83%) and a low implied volatility risk (IVR 94). The expected move of 540 points is projected to bring the stock down to the strike prices, making the trade profitable. The speaker notes that the stock has had a significant downtrend and that the downside risk is likely exhausted, making this a viable short-term trade.
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Strategyput ladder
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly 3-day and August
Time horizonEarnings report date
Entry / triggerNetflix earnings report
Target / exitProfit of $1.88
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves above the strike prices
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Structure / legs- July 3-day expiration 68 puts
- August 65 puts
Risks- The stock could open above the strike prices, leading to losses
- Market volatility could increase, affecting the trade's outcome
- The earnings report could have unexpected results, impacting the stock price
Trade idea
Dell Strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle in Dell due to the high implied volatility and the expected move of $91. The trade involves selling options at $14, with the potential for a 96% pop. The speaker adjusts the strike prices based on the stock's movement, suggesting a strangle with options at $300 and $700. The trade is considered a contrarian play, leveraging the high volatility and the potential for a significant price movement.
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StrategyStrangle
AssetEquity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizon30 days
Entry / triggerStock price at $14
Target / exit400 points wide
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- Sell August 300 put
- Sell August 700 call
Risks- Significant price movement against the trade
- Market conditions changing rapidly
Trade idea
MU shorting the Nasdaq
The speaker suggests that shorting the Nasdaq is a better position than trading MU, as the Nasdaq is expected to decline. The speaker is moving into a short position on the Nasdaq, indicating a bearish outlook on the market. The rationale is that the Nasdaq is down while other indices like the S&P 500 and Russell are up, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment. The speaker also mentions that the Nasdaq is expected to have a bigger move than MU, making it a more attractive trade.
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Strategyshorting the Nasdaq
Assetequity
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerMarket conditions where the Nasdaq is expected to decline
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market risk due to potential upward movement in the Nasdaq
- Liquidity risk if the Nasdaq becomes illiquid
- Execution risk if the trade is not executed at the desired price
Trade idea
SLV volatility trading
The speaker suggests that silver is experiencing extreme volatility due to retail participation, similar to meme stocks. The market is expected to experience a sell-off, with potential for a significant price drop. The strategy involves shorting silver during this period, with a focus on the potential for a rapid decline. The risks include the possibility of a sudden price reversal or continued rally.
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Strategyvolatility trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term (days to weeks)
Entry / triggerHigh volatility and large price swings in silver
Target / exitPrice drop of $10 per day for a week
Invalidation / stopPrice reversal or sustained rally
SpeakerLarry
Risks- Price reversal
- Sustained rally
- High volatility
Trade idea
Trade idea shorting futures
The speaker mentions selling futures on the Nasdaq at a level 100 points lower than the current price, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. The rationale is based on the belief that the Nasdaq may experience a pullback from recent highs. The invalidation point would be if the Nasdaq continues to rise, suggesting a potential reversal of the short position.
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Strategyshorting futures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerspecific price levels
Target / exit100 points lower in the Nasdaq
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions or price movements
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect price movement
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nasdaq Micro Futures iron condor
The speaker suggests waiting until the middle of next week or after the weekend to close the iron condor position. The reasoning is that the position is already in the middle of its life, and waiting a bit longer could allow for potential profit. The speaker also notes that rolling the position is not advisable, and the focus should be on closing it out at the right time. The risk is that the market could move against the trade, leading to a loss.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetfutures
ExpirationJuly 31
Time horizonWeeks
Entry / triggerPosition has been open for 22 days
Target / exitWait until the middle of next week or after the weekend
Invalidation / stopClose the position if the market moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerSteve
Structure / legs- short strike at 28,000
- long strike at 31,100
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential loss if the trade moves against the position
Trade idea
SPACEX selling puts
The speaker believes that the implied volatility of SpaceX is high, making out-of-the-money puts at $90 a good opportunity for selling puts. The speaker is not bullish on the stock but is long deltas, indicating a bullish stance on the underlying asset. The trade idea involves selling puts as a way to generate income, even though the speaker is not confident in the stock's long-term direction.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading below IPO price
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Potential for stock price to rise above strike price
- Implied volatility may decrease
- Market volatility could increase
Trade idea
SPX iron condor
The speaker suggests that iron condors on the SPX with zero DTE are only viable when placed just outside the expected move and managed early. The strategy involves taking profits up to 25% and is considered a last resort due to its marginal returns in bull markets.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetindex
Expirationzero DTE
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerjust outside the expected move
Target / exitmanage early with max 25% of profits
Invalidation / stopmarket moves beyond expected range
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Time decay
Trade idea
COINBASE put spread
The trade involves selling an August put spread in Coinbase, with strikes at 120 and 100, collecting a premium of $2. The trade is based on the expectation that Coinbase will remain below its year-to-date low of 145. The probability of profit is estimated at 90%, with the expected move being 32 points. The trade is considered favorable due to the risk-reward ratio and the inverse relationship between the strike width and the probability of profit.
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Strategyput spread
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerCoinbase is trading below its year-to-date low
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected
Invalidation / stopif Coinbase moves significantly higher
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- put spread with strikes at 120 and 100
- premium collected: $2
Risks- Significant price movement in Coinbase could result in losses.
- Volatility could affect the expected move and probability of profit.
Trade idea
JP Morgan sell out of the money puts
The speaker suggests that trading JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley around their earnings reports could be a use case for understanding how premiums expand and contract. The expected move is estimated to be around 3%, but the actual move could be between 4% and 6%. The speaker advises being one-dimensional and directional, suggesting selling out of the money puts if bullish on JP Morgan. The trade is considered risky due to the potential for a larger-than-expected move, which could lead to significant losses if the market moves against the trade.
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Strategysell out of the money puts
Assetstock
Expirationnext week
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore the opening on the 14th
Target / exit335
Invalidation / stopif the move exceeds 3% or if the earnings are significantly better or worse than expected
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Large unexpected move
- Earnings report surprises
- Volatility spikes
Trade idea
MSFT strangle
The speaker suggests that the strangle on Microsoft (MSFT) is currently profitable and advises exiting the trade before earnings, as volatility is expected to increase significantly around the earnings date. The rationale is that the earnings period will likely cause a spike in volatility, making the strangle less effective. The speaker also recommends taking partial profits and exiting the trade before the earnings announcement to avoid potential losses.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonShort-term (1-2 weeks)
Entry / triggerCurrent price level
Target / exit26% profit
Invalidation / stopEarnings date (July 29th) and volatility changes
SpeakerSam from Miami
Structure / legs- put strike 325
- call strike 450
Risks- Earnings may result in a significant price movement that invalidates the strangle
- Volatility may not increase as expected, reducing the trade's effectiveness
Trade idea
Hood rolling to August
The speaker suggests rolling the Hood trade to August to re-center the position after a significant upward move. This is done because the stock has already experienced a large move, and the volatility is considered decent. The speaker believes that re-centering the trade in August can help manage risk, especially given the stock's history of missing earnings and the potential for continued volatility.
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Strategyrolling to August
Assetequity
Expiration2023-07-29
Time horizonuntil August
Entry / triggercurrent volatility is high
Target / exitre-centering the trade in August
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues to move significantly before August
SpeakerSam
Risks- The stock may continue to move significantly before August
- Volatility may not remain at current levels
- Earnings reports could impact the stock's performance
Trade idea
HOOD short strangle
The speaker has a short strangle in HOOD, which they believe is positioned around the expected price movement. They have been bullish on HOOD throughout the year and have been buying it whenever it dips into the 70s, which has worked for them. The trade idea is based on the expectation that the price will move within the expected range, allowing for profit from the strangle.
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Strategyshort strangle
Assetstock
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice movement within expected range
Target / exitProfit from price decline
Invalidation / stopPrice moves beyond expected range
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Price moves beyond expected range
- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
S&P 500 pre-market anticipation using CFDs
The speaker suggests that traders can use CFDs to anticipate the opening of the S&P 500 by monitoring European markets. This provides a potential edge in predicting market movements before official trading hours. The strategy involves using pre-market data to inform trading decisions, with a target of a 30 basis point decline. The invalidation point is if the market opens significantly higher than the pre-market indication, indicating that the anticipated movement was incorrect.
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Strategypre-market anticipation using CFDs
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term (within 1-2 trading sessions)
Entry / triggerMonitor European markets via CFD platforms like IG for pre-market movements
Target / exit30 basis points down
Invalidation / stopIf the market opens significantly higher than the pre-market indication
SpeakerBeth
Risks- Inaccurate pre-market data
- Regulatory risks due to CFDs being illegal in the U.S.
- Market volatility
Trade idea
ZN Put Selling
The speaker suggests selling 110 puts in ZN for April as a way to play for a bounce in the price of ZN. They note that the delta on the 10 puts is around 29, implying a 70% probability of profit. The break-even point is around 109.5, and the trade is based on the expectation that interest rates will decrease, leading to a rise in ZN prices. The speaker also mentions that the trade is a way to bet on either the end of a war or the continuation of the current status quo.
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StrategyPut Selling
AssetFutures
ExpirationApril
Time horizonShort-term (April expiration)
Entry / triggerZN at 110.27
Target / exitBounce in ZN price
Invalidation / stopIf ZN price falls below 109.5
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- If ZN price falls below 109.5, the trade could result in a loss.
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the trade.
- The trade is based on the assumption that interest rates will decrease, which may not materialize.
Trade idea
Gold strangle
The speaker is short a strangle on gold with a wide range of 1200 points, but the position has narrowed to 800 points. The speaker needs gold to rally another 100 points to roll down calls or adjust the position. The thesis is that gold prices need to stabilize for the next 30 days to allow for position management, with the expectation that the price will eventually decline to the 2000s. The invalidation is if gold prices do not stabilize or move significantly.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril
Time horizon30 days
Entry / triggergold prices stabilize for 30 days
Target / exitroll down calls or close position
Invalidation / stopif gold prices do not stabilize or move significantly
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- market volatility
- failure to stabilize gold prices
- loss on short position
Trade idea
SPX put selling
The speaker sold puts on the S&P 500 (SPX) when it was at 41 and has since seen it rise to 66. They are continuing to sell more as the market moves higher, indicating a strategy of profiting from potential price declines during rallies. The speaker believes that rallies are often followed by corrections, making put selling a viable strategy. The entry point was at 41, and the target is a price reversion to a previous level, with the invalidation being a significant upward move beyond the expected range.
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Strategyput selling
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is in a rally phase
Target / exitPrice reverts to a previous level
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward move beyond expected range
SpeakerTom Stnoff
Risks- Market moves significantly higher than anticipated
- Volatility increases, leading to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
S&P 500 selling short with a defined risk
The speaker is short the S&P 500 and looks forward to market rallies, as they provide opportunities to sell higher. The speaker mentions selling some positions this morning and buying them back, with an average slightly lower than the current price. The speaker also notes that the market's behavior is characterized by rotating flow, where traders chase what's currently hot, and that the current rally is seen as a good spot to sell into. The target for the trade is set at 880, with the understanding that the trade may not close even at that level, but it is considered a valid trade.
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Strategyselling short with a defined risk
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket rallies, particularly in the morning
Target / exit880
Invalidation / stopMarket rallies beyond the target or significant news events
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market rallies beyond the target level
- Significant news events affecting the market
- Liquidity issues in the market
Trade idea
TSLA rolling short puts
The speaker discusses rolling short puts on Tesla (TSLA) and suggests continuing to roll the puts as long as they are underwater, as the strategy allows for lower capital requirements compared to holding the shares. The speaker argues that taking the shares is not optimal if the puts are underwater, as it would mean missing out on potential gains from further declines in the stock price.
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Strategyrolling short puts
Assetequity
Time horizonmultiple roll periods
Entry / triggerrolling short puts when the underlying asset is declining
Target / exitprofit from the decline in the underlying asset
Invalidation / stopif the underlying asset starts to rise significantly
Speakerspeaker
Risks- significant risk if the underlying asset rises sharply
- increased exposure with multiple roll periods
Trade idea
Salana shorting a rally
The speaker shorted Salana at 135, expecting it to drop to 50. This is based on the speaker's belief that the price had overbought and was expected to correct. The speaker acknowledges the risk of being wrong and the potential for a significant drop.
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Strategyshorting a rally
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the price was at 135
Target / exit50
Invalidation / stop50
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Price could continue to rise instead of falling
- Market volatility could affect the trade outcome
Trade idea
crude oil call spread
The speaker proposes a call spread strategy on crude oil, selling 64 puts and buying 7476 calls for $229. The trade has no risk to the upside, and the speaker believes the market will stay within the expected range. The trade is considered conservative compared to naked short puts, and the speaker highlights the potential for profit if crude oil remains stable.
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Strategycall spread
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust 17th
Time horizon50 days
Entry / triggercurrent price around 64
Target / exitno risk to the upside
Invalidation / stopif crude oil moves significantly beyond the expected range
SpeakerMichael Sailor
Structure / legs- sell 64 puts
- buy 7476 calls
Risks- significant price movement beyond expected range
- volatility changes
Trade idea
SLV put
Silver's been kind of beat up
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Strategyput
Assetequity
ExpirationAUG
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSLV was down this morning but is now up 50 cents
Target / exit1%
Invalidation / stopAdjustment on the trade if SLV moves significantly
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movements
Trade idea
META short premium
The speaker suggests that Meta could be an interesting short premium trade due to its low implied volatility (IVR of 29). However, the speaker also notes that there are better short premium opportunities in stocks with higher volatility, such as Micron and Nvidia. The speaker is not bullish on Meta and believes that the market may experience a healthy sell-off, which could be beneficial for short positions.
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Strategyshort premium
Assetstock
Time horizonShort-term, with the speaker indicating that the trade is not long-term.
Entry / triggerMarket has digested recent news and volatility is low.
Target / exitUncertain, but the speaker suggests it could be an interesting trade.
Invalidation / stopIf the stock continues to rise or volatility increases significantly.
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market could move against the short position if volatility increases or if the stock continues to rise.
- The speaker's personal dislike for Meta's market behavior may influence the trade decision.
Trade idea
RTY credit spreads
The speaker mentions selling credit spreads or puts against the RTY with a snark, indicating a short-term, high-volatility strategy. This approach is suitable for traders looking to capitalize on near-term price movements, though it requires careful monitoring due to the limited time horizon and increased risk of directional moves.
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Strategycredit spreads
Assetindex
Expirationshort-term
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility
Target / exitpremium collected
Invalidation / stopsignificant price movement
SpeakerDean
Risks- rapid price changes
- time decay
- implied volatility changes
Trade idea
Nasdaq volatility and market weakness
The Nasdaq is currently weak due to underperformance of major tech stocks like Meta, Lou, and Nvidia. The speaker suggests that the Nasdaq's weakness could lead to further declines, especially if volatility remains elevated. The Nasdaq's performance is expected to impact the broader S&P index, making it a key indicator for traders to monitor.
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Strategyvolatility and market weakness
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNasdaq down 250 points
Target / exitNasdaq down 400 points
Invalidation / stopIf Nasdaq rallies above 250 points or volatility decreases significantly
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The Nasdaq may rally if positive news emerges.
- The speaker's analysis is based on short-term market conditions and may not account for long-term trends.
Trade idea
silver short calls and puts
The recent sharp move in silver and its subsequent consolidation suggest a potential reversal. By shorting calls and puts, the trader can profit from the price range. This strategy is suitable for short-term traders who can monitor the market closely and adjust positions as needed.
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Strategyshort calls and puts
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price has experienced a sharp move and is consolidating
Target / exitprofit from the price consolidation
Invalidation / stopif silver continues to move in a new direction
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- short calls above
- short puts below
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movement
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NG strangle
The speaker discusses a short strangle on natural gas (NG) with puts at 375/380 and calls at 450/455. They note a significant gap down on the opening, which they attribute to the inherent volatility of natural gas. The strategy is based on the expectation of a reversion to the mean after a large move up. The speaker acknowledges the difficulty of trading natural gas due to its high implied volatility and the potential for large price swings.
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Strategystrangle
Assetfutures
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility reversion
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerVinny
Risks- High volatility
- Large price gaps
- Market maker behavior
Trade idea
GLD short puts with call protection
The trader is short GLD puts with a combined Delta of 50, which exposes them to risk if gold rises. To mitigate this, they sell calls with a Delta of 15 or 20, reducing their risk by 35%. This strategy is based on the idea that selling calls can offset some of the risk from being short puts, while also maintaining a capital-efficient position. However, if gold continues to rise, the calls provide no protection, and the trader may face losses.
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Strategyshort puts with call protection
Assetequity
ExpirationMarch 31st
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort puts with a combined Delta of 50
Target / exitreduce risk by 35% through the sale of calls with a Delta of 15 or 20
Invalidation / stopif gold breaks further, the calls have no protection
Speakeranonymous
Structure / legs- short March 31st GLD puts (one in the money, one out of the money)
- sell calls against the position
Risks- If gold breaks further, the calls have no protection
- Rolling out in time may reduce risk by 20%, but it involves entering an illiquid option series
- The trader must stay in the March expiration and avoid rolling out to a less liquid series
Trade idea
Bitcoin buying during corrections and selling during rallies
The speaker believes that Bitcoin could trade into the 60s and 50s, which would allow for shorting the asset as some longs start to puke. The speaker wants Bitcoin to trade lower to create opportunities for shorting, as they believe the asset is non-levered and will be around for a long time. The strategy involves nibbling during corrections and selling during rallies.
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Strategybuying during corrections and selling during rallies
Assetcrypto
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerBitcoin trading into the 60s and 50s
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- market volatility
- potential for further price drops
Trade idea
Nasdaq 100 Short the Nasdaq 100 due to the potential for a market correction caused by overexposure to the AI narrative and the forced buying by index funds.
The Nasdaq 100 is overvalued due to the AI narrative and the forced buying by index funds. This overvaluation may lead to a market correction as the AI narrative fails to deliver on its promises. The forced buying by index funds may also lead to a decline in the Nasdaq 100 as the market adjusts to the reality of the AI narrative.
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StrategyShort the Nasdaq 100 due to the potential for a market correction caused by overexposure to the AI narrative and the forced buying by index funds.
AssetIndex
Time horizonShort-term to medium-term
Entry / triggerIf the Nasdaq 100 continues to show signs of overvaluation and the AI narrative fails to deliver on its promises.
Target / exitPotential for a decline in the Nasdaq 100 due to the forced buying by index funds and the overexposure to the AI narrative.
Invalidation / stopIf the Nasdaq 100 continues to rise despite the AI narrative, the trade may need to be adjusted or closed.
SpeakerMichael
Risks- The AI narrative may still have long-term value despite current overvaluation
- Market corrections can be influenced by multiple factors beyond AI narratives
- The Nasdaq 100 may continue to rise despite the AI narrative
Trade idea
6J short puts
The speaker has been short puts on the Japanese yen (6J) for 4 or 5 years, with the 64, 65, and 66 puts currently in the money. The premium has been coming in nicely, and the speaker believes this has been one of the best trades on the board. The strategy is to wait for a rally in the Japanese yen, with the August 7th 62.5 puts sold for 450, equivalent to $562. The speaker is also short a 70-75 call spread in Micron and a strangle in Netflix, indicating a diversified approach to short positions.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetcurrency
ExpirationAugust 7th
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggercurrent price in the money
Target / exitwaiting for a rally in the Japanese yen
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
SpeakerScott
Risks- Potential for further price declines in the Japanese yen
- Risk of the rally not occurring
- Market volatility affecting the premium
Trade idea
SPY iron condor
The speaker suggests trading delta three wide SPY iron condors, which are designed to profit from a range-bound market. The strategy is positioned to benefit from the current up and down market conditions, though the speaker notes that the market has not tested the positions yet. The speaker's approach involves selling both call and put options at different strike prices to create a risk-defined range.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetequity
Expiration38 to 45 days
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerup and down market
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Risks- Market moves beyond the defined range
- Volatility changes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SPY iron condor
The speaker discusses the use of delta three wide spy iron condors and the importance of staying mechanical. The strategy involves entering the trade with 38 to 45 days to expiration and managing the position by rolling it to 21 days. The speaker suggests that the sweet spot for maximizing returns is during the decay curve, and the optimal profit level is around 25%. The trade should be exited or rolled out when the position reaches this sweet spot to avoid holding into the last week of the expiration, which increases risk with minimal reward.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetequity
Expiration21 days to expiration
Time horizon21 days to expiration
Entry / triggerWhen the market is in a range-bound or volatile environment
Target / exit25% of max profit
Invalidation / stopIf the position is held into the last week of the expiration, due to increased risk and minimal reward
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected events
- Inability to redeploy capital efficiently
Trade idea
Nvidia range breakout
The speaker believes that Nvidia is at the upper end of a range and expects a reversal to the downside. They sold some shares based on this expectation, anticipating a pullback. The speaker also mentions the potential for a gap up on the next day, suggesting a short-term reversal strategy. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will retrace from the upper range boundary.
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Strategyrange breakout
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice at the upper end of a range
Target / exitPrice reversal to the downside
Invalidation / stopPrice continuation above the range
SpeakerJim
Risks- Price continues to the upside
- Volatility may not materialize as expected
- Earnings report could impact sentiment
Trade idea
NVDA call ratio spreads
The speaker executed a call ratio spread by buying the 05s and selling the 10s, expecting a 5% move in Nvidia. The trade was initiated with a small credit or debit, and the speaker acknowledges that the trade could be improved. The thesis is based on the expectation of a limited price movement, with the trade designed to profit from a downward move or a limited upward move.
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Strategycall ratio spreads
Assetequity
Expirationtwo days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia's current price at 196
Target / exit5% move
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves beyond the 10s strike
SpeakerTom
Risks- If the stock moves beyond the 10s strike, the trade could result in a loss.
- The trade is sensitive to volatility and the accuracy of the expected move.
Trade idea
NVDA sell on a higher print
The speaker is considering selling Nvidia futures if the stock rises, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. The rationale is that a higher print may signal a potential reversal or overbought condition, prompting a sell decision. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock may not sustain the upward movement, and the speaker is prepared to act if the price increases.
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Strategysell on a higher print
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif Nvidia goes up tonight
Invalidation / stopif the price does not rise
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The trade is based on a short-term outlook, which may not account for longer-term trends.
Trade idea
gold contrarian
The speaker suggests that after a large move in gold, a contrarian approach may be appropriate. They mention selling puts as a strategy, which implies a bullish bias, but also note that the market is volatile and requires careful risk management. The speaker's focus on micro contracts suggests a preference for smaller positions to mitigate risk in such environments.
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Strategycontrarian
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerafter a large move in gold
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerunknown
Risks- large price movements
- volatility
- market direction reversal
Trade idea
SPX iron condor
The speaker discusses their strategy of selling 20 delta 45-day SPX iron condors with $20 wings, maintaining delta neutrality. They note that the put legs are further away than the call legs, and suggest tightening the put side to earn more premium. The speaker acknowledges that skewing the condors can be beneficial, depending on market outlook, and suggests adjusting the put legs closer to the call legs to collect more premium while accepting a slight delta imbalance.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetindex
Expiration45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdelta neutral with 20 delta wings
Target / exitpremium collection
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the position
SpeakerMike
Risks- market volatility
- delta imbalance
- expiration risk
Trade idea
ORCL put selling
The speaker is short put options on Oracle (ORCL) with the expectation that the stock will not fall below the strike prices of the puts. The speaker expresses a contrarian view, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued despite a significant drop over six months. The trade is based on the belief that the stock will not decline further, and the put options are sold at a premium to profit from the time decay and the potential for the stock to remain above the strike prices.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
ExpirationMarch and April
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerOracle (ORCL) price at $1.31
Target / exit75 cents
Invalidation / stopOracle price rising above $1.31
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- short 125 puts (March, 3 days to expiration)
- short 135 puts (April, 3 days to expiration)
Risks- Oracle's price could fall below the strike prices, resulting in losses
- Market volatility could cause unexpected price movements
- Time decay may not be sufficient to offset potential losses if the stock declines
Trade idea
MU wide strangle
The speaker is short a wide strangle in MU with a $300 width, adjusting it frequently and referring to it as a grinding trade.
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Strategywide strangle
Assetstock
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggernot specified
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Trade idea
silver spread trading
The speaker suggests that the spread between gold and silver is a false hedge, as it has fluctuated significantly over time. The speaker indicates that the spread was previously $51 but has since dropped to lower levels, suggesting that the hedge is not reliable. The speaker also mentions that trading copper against silver might be a better alternative, but acknowledges that copper is less liquid and has wider options, requiring caution.
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Strategyspread trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the spread between gold and silver is at a high level
Target / exitthe spread reverts to a lower level
Invalidation / stopif the spread continues to widen beyond historical levels
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The spread may continue to widen beyond historical levels
- The liquidity of copper is lower than that of silver
- The options for copper may be wider, increasing the risk of large losses
Trade idea
Nike put spread
profit from downside risk if stock remains below strike price
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Strategyput spread
Assetstock
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock at multi-year low
Target / exitsell at a dollar
Invalidation / stopstock price movement
SpeakerVinnie
Risks- stock price rises
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Trade idea put
Market may not move significantly, allowing the put position to expire worthless
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Strategyput
Assetoptions
Expiration2023-08-18
Time horizon2 days
Entry / triggerSold 90 puts in August expiring on Friday
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market moves against the position
- Volatility spikes
Trade idea
Trade idea strangle
high implied volatility and call skew
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizon45 days
Entry / triggerpost earnings
Target / exit80% pop
Invalidation / stopmarket makers on
Speakerspeaker
Risks- earnings announcement
- market volatility
Trade idea
QQQ call credit spread
the trade has a 2/3 chance of making money
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Strategycall credit spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSEP
Time horizonshort period of time
Entry / triggerinside of the expected move
Target / exitabout a dollar 70 today
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves beyond the expected move
Speakerspeaker
Risks- if the stock moves beyond the expected move
Trade idea
Trade idea scalping
Scalping involves taking small positions based on immediate market conditions, such as when the market appears heavy. The trader starts with a small position (e.g., one or a few futures contracts) and adjusts based on market flow. If the trade goes in the intended direction, the trader may take profit or add to the position. If the trade goes against the position, the trader may sell another one or take off the position. The goal is to profit from short-term price movements without holding the position overnight.
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Strategyscalping
Assetfutures
Time horizonIntraday
Entry / triggerMarket looks heavy
Target / exitProfit on short-term price movements
Invalidation / stopIf market moves against the position, sell another one or take off the position
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market moves against the position
- Liquidity issues
- High transaction costs
Trade idea
CL call spread
take advantage of market condition
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Strategycall spread
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercrude oil is up 250
Target / exitcollect between one-third to 25% of the width of strikes
Invalidation / stopcall skew in crude oil
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market reversal
- volatility drop
Trade idea
TQQQ volatility trading
Trading volatility through short puts and calls in TQQQ can be more profitable than in QQQ due to higher liquidity in TQQQ. However, the options in TQQQ are less liquid, which may affect the edge and risk profile. The underlying stock and options markets are influenced by the same models, but liquidity differences can impact trade execution and edge. The strategy is suitable for short-term trading, but traders should be cautious about the liquidity of options and the potential for wider spreads.
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Strategyvolatility trading
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term (weeks to months)
Entry / triggerwhen the underlying stock is actively traded and options are less liquid
Invalidation / stopif the underlying stock or options show significant liquidity issues or market volatility beyond expected levels
SpeakerMitch
Risks- liquidity risk in options
- market volatility
- execution risk due to lower liquidity in options
Trade idea
HOOD put selling
The speaker is short a bunch of puts on HOOD, expecting a price movement of 8 bucks. The expected move is based on the current price of $87, and the speaker is fingers crossed for the outcome. The trade is based on the anticipated price movement after earnings, with the risk being that the price may move beyond the expected range.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
Expirationafter the close
Time horizonday
Entry / triggercurrent price at $87
Target / exit8 bucks
Invalidation / stopprice movement beyond expected range
SpeakerSteve
Risks- unexpected price movement
- earnings report impact
Trade idea
SAN shorting Micron
The speaker is shorting Micron (MU) at a price of $550, which they consider a bad price. They mention that they started getting short when they put out an alert about selling MU, and they believe it was a poor decision. The speaker is still in the trade despite it being their worst trade in multiple years. The reasoning is that the speaker believes the stock is overvalued and expects a decline, but the exact target and stop-loss are not specified.
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Strategyshorting Micron
Assetequity
Time horizonNot specified
Entry / triggerEarnings report on 813
Target / exitNot specified
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- Potential for further price increases
- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nasdaq volatility crush
The speaker notes that the Nasdaq and S&P have experienced a sharp rally, indicating a risk-off environment. The speaker advises against buying individual stocks at current prices, suggesting that the market is in a state of consolidation or correction. The speaker also mentions that volatility has been crushed, indicating that the market may not sustain the rally. The speaker's personal trading decisions include selling positions in the overnight session, suggesting a short-term bearish outlook.
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Strategyvolatility crush
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket rally of over 4% in a single day
Target / exitMarket consolidation or correction
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or continued rally
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility increase
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SPX iron condors
Rodrigo suggests that when volatility is low, it's better to ladder iron condors across multiple expirations to synthetically create higher implied volatility in longer durations. However, when volatility is high, focusing on near-month expirations is more effective. The strategy involves opening one iron condor per day, with a focus on the front month and the next month. This approach allows for flexibility in managing volatility and maximizing returns based on market conditions.
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Strategyiron condors
Assetindex
Expiration45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerlow volatility
Target / exitvolatility increase
Invalidation / stopvolatility decrease
SpeakerRodrigo
Risks- volatility may not increase as expected
- market direction may move against the short position
- liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
SPX iron condor
Given the current high volatility, the speaker suggests focusing on the near-month options, specifically March and April, for an iron condor strategy. This is based on the idea that high volatility creates a synthetic higher volatility environment, which is more suitable for such strategies. If volatility were to drop significantly, the strategy would need to be adjusted to longer-dated options.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetindex
ExpirationMarch, April
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh implied volatility
Target / exitsynthetic higher volatility environment
Invalidation / stopif volatility drops below 15 in the VIX or VIX futures
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility could drop below the threshold, requiring a strategy adjustment.
- Market direction could move against the short delta position.
- Implied volatility could change rapidly, affecting the effectiveness of the strategy.
Trade idea
silver straddle/strangle
The speaker discusses the risks of being long silver during a sharp decline, suggesting that a short position or a straddle/strangle strategy could have been used to protect against downside risk. The strategy involves adjusting delta to ensure net exposure is slightly short, which can help mitigate losses during a downturn. The invalidation level is if silver moves upward or volatility decreases, which would indicate the strategy is no longer effective.
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Strategystraddle/strangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen silver is expected to move significantly downward
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopif silver moves upward or volatility decreases
SpeakerLarry
Risks- volatility risk
- market direction risk
- execution risk
Trade idea
NASDAQ Sell on the bounce
The speaker sold NASDAQ futures on the bounce after a decline, targeting a specific price level. The trade was based on the expectation of a short-term rebound, with a stop at the previous low. The trade was executed with a clear entry point and a defined target, indicating a disciplined approach to short-term trading.
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StrategySell on the bounce
AssetFutures
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket bounce after a decline
Target / exit30,299
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or significant news event
SpeakerTony Batista
Risks- Market reversal
- Slippage
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Dell Double Ratio
The speaker suggests a double ratio strategy involving buying the 90 put and selling the 80 put for a $2 credit. This trade is considered more effective when the stock price is down two and a half. The strategy is based on the idea that the stock price is expected to remain within a certain range, allowing the trader to profit from the credit received while limiting risk.
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StrategyDouble Ratio
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price down two and a half
Target / exitCredit of $2
Invalidation / stopStock price moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility could cause the stock price to move beyond the expected range
- The trade may not generate the expected credit if the stock price moves against the trade
Trade idea
MU rolling calls
The trader rolled calls on MU due to uncertainty about the stock's movement, but the stock's unexpected rally to $1050 raised concerns. The trade idea is based on the trader's belief that the stock's movement was not aligned with expectations, leading to a short position. The trader's thesis is that the stock's movement was not in line with the broader market sentiment, which was holding steady.
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Strategyrolling calls
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term, as the trader was rolling calls and monitoring the stock's movement.
Entry / triggerStock price was up 20% but the trader rolled calls due to uncertainty about the stock's movement.
Target / exitNot explicitly stated, but the trader expressed concern about the stock's movement.
Invalidation / stopThe trader's invalidation point was the stock's unexpected rally to $1050, which was not anticipated.
SpeakerTrader
Risks- The stock could continue to rally, leading to losses on the short position
- Market sentiment could shift, affecting the stock's performance
Trade idea
MNQ scalping
The speaker mentions selling MNQs and having bids in, indicating a short-term scalping strategy. The discussion around the NASDAQ's performance and the speaker's positive scalp suggests a focus on short-term price movements. The trade idea is based on the speaker's actions and the market context provided.
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Strategyscalping
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket price above the bid
Target / exitImmediate profit from short-term price movements
Invalidation / stopMarket price drops below the bid
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected price movements
Trade idea
ZN selling puts
The speaker is selling June 108 puts in the ZN (10-year Treasury Note) futures contract for approximately 30 ticks. This trade is based on the expectation that the market price will not fall below the strike price of 108, allowing the seller to keep the premium. The trade is considered a short-term opportunity, and the speaker notes that the exact price at the time of writing is not specified, indicating that the trade is based on current market conditions.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetbond
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket price at the time of writing
Target / exit30 ticks
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market price could fall below the strike price, resulting in a loss if the put is exercised.
Trade idea
ZN selling puts
The speaker is selling June 108 puts in ZN (10-year Treasury Notes) at around 30 ticks. The trade is based on the expectation that the price will not fall below the strike price, allowing the seller to keep the premium. The speaker mentions a pop of 70% and an IVR of 37, indicating a potential profit if the market moves as expected. The trade is considered a good opportunity due to the high IVR and the potential for a significant move.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetfutures
ExpirationJune
Time horizon39 days
Entry / triggerwhen the put price is around 30 ticks
Target / exitpop of 70%
Invalidation / stopif the price moves significantly against the trade
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- unexpected price movements
- changes in interest rates affecting the underlying asset
Trade idea
SAN strangle
The speaker executed a strangle in SanDisk (SAN) based on the stock's price movement, indicating a short position. The trade was based on the stock's recent decline, with the expectation of further downward movement. The speaker expressed uncertainty about the trade's effectiveness, noting that the stock had moved $200 a day but had recently declined by $3 to $5. The trade was not recommended to others, suggesting a personal strategy rather than a general recommendation.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice movement below a certain threshold
Target / exitPrice decline of $3 to $5
Invalidation / stopPrice increase above a certain threshold
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Price reversal
- Volatility
- Market conditions
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL selling puts
The speaker sells puts on crude oil, expecting the price to remain below the strike price. The speaker notes that the puts have a delta of 23, indicating a moderate sensitivity to price changes. The speaker acknowledges that this trade has been a losing one so far but believes that the market may provide better opportunities in the future. The speaker also mentions that the trade is part of a broader strategy of being short crude oil, which has been a long-term position.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercrude oil price is below a certain level
Target / exitprice increase to a specified level
Invalidation / stopprice drops below a certain level
Speakerspeaker
Risks- the price could drop below the strike price
- the market could move against the position
- the trade could result in a loss
Trade idea
WENDY'S short-term trading based on meme stock dynamics
The stock has shown significant volatility and is influenced by social media and meme stock dynamics. The speaker suggests that such stocks have shorter runs than traditional assets like gold or oil. The idea is to short the stock based on the expectation that the price will decline after a period of rapid increase.
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Strategyshort-term trading based on meme stock dynamics
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term, within days to weeks
Entry / triggerPrice at $8, with a history of volatility and social media-driven price movements
Target / exitPotential short-term price decline to $6 or lower
Invalidation / stopPrice rising above $10 or significant positive news
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- High volatility
- Potential for rapid price increases
- Market sentiment changes
Trade idea
MU shorting MU with earnings after market close
The speaker is short MU and believes that the larger move is not priced in. They expect a larger than expected move to the downside, as everything is skewed to the upside. The speaker acknowledges the possibility of a move to the upside but believes the downside is more likely.
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Strategyshorting MU with earnings after market close
Assetequity
Time horizonImmediate
Entry / triggerEarnings after market close
Target / exitAssumed $10 lower or $10 higher on the close
Invalidation / stopIf there's a larger than expected move to the downside
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected earnings report
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
AAPL strangle
volatility is high and stock is expected to move $21
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
ExpirationSE
Time horizonshort term
Entry / triggerpost earnings
Target / exitdelta neutral
Invalidation / stopif stock sticks around 300
Speakerunknown
Risks- adjust strikes if needed
- stock could move more than expected
Trade idea
Trade idea iron condor
iron condor is delta neutral and has no directional risk
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Strategyiron condor
Assetoptions
Entry / triggerwhen IVR is super high
Speakerunknown
Risks- market movement
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Nasdaq Spike Trade
The speaker sold Nasdaq due to a spike trade, indicating a short-term strategy based on market volatility. The trade was executed on a spike, suggesting a belief that the market would reverse or consolidate. However, the exact entry point, target, and stop-loss levels are not specified, making it a speculative trade based on emotional reaction rather than a well-defined strategy.
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StrategySpike Trade
AssetEquity Index
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket spike
Target / exitNot specified
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity risk
- Emotional bias
Trade idea
SOXS Scalping
The speaker discusses a trade on SOXS, where they bought the stock in the morning and immediately sold it out after a short-term reversal. The trade was based on the idea of scalping, which involves taking advantage of short-term price movements. The speaker mentions that they had too much of the stock already, so they decided to buy and sell quickly. The trade was successful, as the stock reversed out of spite, indicating a short-term reversal in price. The trade was executed with a clear entry and exit point, and the speaker notes that it usually works out well.
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StrategyScalping
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPre-market rally
Target / exitImmediate reversal
Invalidation / stopOverbought condition or continued rally
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Short-term price movements
- Overexposure to the stock
Trade idea
Nike Put
The speaker is short the 40 puts in Nike, expecting the stock to remain range-bound. The trade is considered a small loser until today, but the speaker likes the play due to the implied volatility and the potential for a break-even or small loss. The trade is a short-term play with limited risk.
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StrategyPut
AssetEquity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock has been range-bound for months
Target / exitBreak-even or small loss
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward movement
SpeakerScott
Risks- Significant upward movement could lead to losses
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
S&P put spread
The speaker suggests selling a put spread with a $10 or $15 wide range to hedge against potential downturns in the S&P. The idea is to manage risk by limiting the downside while allowing for potential upside. The strategy is to get back to even and then start with a new position, indicating a short-term approach with a focus on risk management.
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Strategyput spread
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket reversal
Target / exitreaching even
Invalidation / stopmarket reversal
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Limited capital
- Spread costs
Trade idea
SPX put spread
The probability of a 20% meltdown in the SPX by December 2026 is 30%, based on the delta of the 5600 put. A short put spread strategy can be used to capitalize on this probability, with a focus on higher probability trades (e.g., 65-75% chance) to reduce risk. This approach allows for a more realistic and strategic position, balancing potential gains with the risk of market movements.
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Strategyput spread
Assetindex
Expiration2026-12-31
Time horizon2026
Entry / triggerMarket reaches 5600
Target / exit30% probability of reaching 5600
Invalidation / stopMarket does not reach 5600
SpeakerDavid
Structure / legs- 5600 put
- far out of the money put
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect probability assumptions
- Liquidity issues in options trading
Trade idea
Trade idea put spread or call spread
The speaker suggests using a put spread or call spread to short a position with a high probability of a move, aiming for a 65-75% chance of success. The strategy involves giving the position time to work, with a time horizon of 50 to 70 days. The idea is to reduce the risk of a large downside move while maintaining some upside potential.
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Strategyput spread or call spread
Assetoptions
Time horizon50 to 70 days
Entry / triggerwhen the probability of a move is between 65-75%
Invalidation / stopif the market moves against the position
SpeakerDavid
Structure / legs- far out of the money put spread
- out of the money call spread
Risks- market moves against the position
- time decay
- implied volatility changes
Trade idea
natural gas strangle
The speaker suggests selling strangles with deltas between 16 and 20, placing calls 2.5 times further out of the money than puts. This strategy accounts for the asymmetric risk profile of natural gas, where upside potential is theoretically unlimited while downside is capped. The speaker also mentions that straddles are not suitable for natural gas due to its high volatility and limited downside potential.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerwhen natural gas is trading under three bucks
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopif natural gas moves significantly against the position
SpeakerVince
Risks- significant downside risk if natural gas moves against the position
- limited upside potential if natural gas remains within the strangle range
Trade idea
6E sell calls or call spreads
The dollar is expected to rebound, which would likely result in a decline in the euro. To capitalize on this, one can sell call options on the euro (6E) as the most liquid futures options. This strategy assumes the inverse relationship between the dollar and euro, which is a common market dynamic. The trade requires futures trading approval and is suitable for traders with a $15,000 account.
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Strategysell calls or call spreads
Assetfutures
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdollar rebound expected
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopdollar does not rebound or euro does not decline
SpeakerTom and Scott
Risks- Market conditions may change the inverse relationship
- Liquidity issues in the euro futures market
- Need for futures trading approval
Trade idea
ROBINHOOD put selling
The speaker is short puts on Robinhood, which has experienced a significant move from 75 to 71.87. The strategy involves selling puts to collect premium, with the expectation that the stock will remain within a certain range. The speaker is debating whether to hold the position until the earnings report, which could impact the stock's price. The trade is considered a good one due to the move, but there is uncertainty about the outcome of the earnings report.
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Strategyput selling
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading at 75 bucks
Target / exit71.87
Invalidation / stopearnings report
SpeakerBogey
Risks- Earnings report could cause significant price movement
- Potential for unlimited loss if the stock drops sharply
Trade idea
S&P 500 shorting the S&P 500 after a recent upward move
The speaker mentions being 'happy' with the recent upward move of the S&P 500 and plans to 'get a little short' as a response to the move. This indicates a short-term trade idea based on the recent upward trend, with the intention to profit from a potential reversal or consolidation.
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Strategyshorting the S&P 500 after a recent upward move
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerafter a significant upward move
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerBogey
Risks- Market reversal could lead to losses
- Volatility could increase the risk of a short position
Trade idea
SLV Put buying before a potential market crash
Buying puts on silver (SLV) before a market crash can capture significant gains if the underlying asset drops by 30%. The trade should be exited once the target is reached, and profits should be taken to avoid overexposure. This strategy requires identifying early signs of a market downturn and acting decisively to secure profits.
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StrategyPut buying before a potential market crash
AssetETF
Time horizonShort-term (days to weeks)
Entry / triggerBefore a significant market downturn
Target / exit30% drop in underlying asset
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or failure to reach target
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Failure to reach target
- Volatility risk
Trade idea
SOXS Writing calls against underlying stocks to benefit from option decay
Writing calls against SOXS (a bear three times semiconductor ETF) can benefit from a bull market and option decay. The strategy involves writing calls to capitalize on the decay of the premium, which naturally decreases over time. The goal is to approach a zero basis, which indicates that the cost basis of the position is effectively eliminated. This strategy is suitable in a bull market where the underlying asset is expected to appreciate, allowing the premium to decay while the position remains profitable.
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StrategyWriting calls against underlying stocks to benefit from option decay
AssetETF
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerBull market with positive option decay
Target / exitBasis approaching zero
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or significant volatility
SpeakerNeil
Risks- Market reversal
- Significant volatility
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
XLU Mean Reversion
The speaker has consistently lost money on XLU over a 10-year period, with every year showing a negative P&L. This indicates a mean reversion opportunity, as the ETF has not moved significantly despite long-term trading. The strategy is to short the ETF, expecting a reversal to a more neutral or positive trend. The invalidation is if the ETF shows a sustained upward trend or significant volume increase, indicating a potential reversal.
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StrategyMean Reversion
AssetETF
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerWhen the ETF is in a prolonged downtrend with no signs of reversal
Target / exitBreak even on initial investment
Invalidation / stopIf the ETF shows signs of a sustained upward trend or significant volume increase
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Potential for extended downtrend
Trade idea
null short premium across the board
The speaker is short premium across the board due to market uncertainty and liquidity concerns. This strategy is based on the idea that the market is in a 'no man's land' with potential for both upward and downward movements. The speaker is cautious about liquidity and suggests a 'typical Tom strategy' with a short delta and short premium.
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Strategyshort premium across the board
Assetnull
Expirationnull
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility and uncertainty
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernull
Risks- Market direction could move against the short position
- Liquidity issues may affect execution
Trade idea
SPX Iron Condor
The trader is managing a $30 wide iron condor with a 21 DTE expiration. The strategy involves selling calls and puts at the outer strikes while buying calls and puts at the inner strikes to limit risk. The trader is concerned about market corrections or crashes that could wipe out the position. The suggested adjustment is to skew the iron condor with a small amount of negative delta to provide embedded protection without paying excessive premiums for VIX calls.
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StrategyIron Condor
AssetEquity Index
Expiration21 DTE
Time horizon21 DTE
Entry / triggerMarket within the defined range
Target / exitDefined risk based on strike prices
Invalidation / stopMarket moves outside the defined range
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- Short Call at $30 strike
- Short Put at $20 strike
- Long Call at $40 strike
- Long Put at $10 strike
Risks- Market moves outside the defined range
- High cost of VIX calls
- Difficulty in timing the market for VIX calls
Trade idea
Nvidia selling upside calls
The speaker suggests selling upside calls on Nvidia as a strategy to profit from potential price declines while limiting downside risk. However, the speaker acknowledges that this is not an easy trade and requires precise timing. The speaker also notes that shorting Nvidia has been a poor strategy in the past, indicating the need for careful execution and market analysis.
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Strategyselling upside calls
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the stock is overvalued and the market is expected to decline
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected if the stock price remains below the strike price
Invalidation / stopif the stock price rises significantly above the strike price, the trade could result in substantial losses
Speakerunknown
Risks- significant losses if the stock price rises
- difficulty in timing the market
- potential for large losses if the stock price moves against the position
Trade idea
Trade idea strangle
The speaker advocates for short strangles as a go-to strategy, particularly in volatile markets. This approach is based on the idea that market movements provide opportunities, and liquidity is a key factor in executing trades. The strategy is not tied to specific symbols but rather to the overall market conditions, emphasizing flexibility and responsiveness to market dynamics.
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Strategystrangle
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility and liquidity
Invalidation / stopmarket movement and liquidity
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market movement against the position
- Liquidity issues
- Volatility decay
Trade idea
gold put selling
The speaker mentions buying back gold puts that were sold the previous day, indicating a short position in gold. The puts were sold when the price was around $7 or $8 lower than the previous day's price, which was up $100. The speaker considers this a 'good trade' and suggests that the position was closed or adjusted. The thesis is that the speaker is short gold, and the trade was based on the expectation that the price would not rise significantly, allowing the puts to be profitable.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice at a certain level
Target / exitprice at a lower level
Invalidation / stopprice at a higher level
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- price increase
- volatility
- time decay
Trade idea
META strangles
The speaker sold strangles in Meta and the chip stock ETF SMH due to their belief that implied volatility was excessively high, indicating overpriced options. The reasoning is that high IVR may reflect speculative behavior rather than true risk, creating an opportunity to short the volatility. The trade was based on the assumption that the market was inflating volatility, not reflecting actual risk. The speaker emphasized that this approach is mechanical and relies on IVR as a key indicator.
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Strategystrangles
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR at 100, which is the highest over the last year for Meta
Invalidation / stopIf IVR drops significantly or if the market shows signs of genuine risk increase
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market may not be mispricing risk, leading to potential losses if volatility is justified by fundamentals
- Volatility could spike further, increasing the risk of losses
Trade idea
EUR strangle
The speaker has been short strangles on the euro for the entire year, noting that while the returns have not been great, they are up money. They mention that the euro is the most liquid of all the currencies and that they like selling puts here. The speaker also notes that the IVR is currently at 60%, which they find high for the euro, and that they are looking to sell naked puts on Rocket Lab.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcurrency
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR at 60%
Target / exitpremium destruction
Invalidation / stopif the euro moves significantly against the short position
SpeakerLarry Olsson
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for significant losses if the euro moves against the short position
- The strategy may not be suitable for all traders
Trade idea
70 to 75 puts short put
The speaker is short the 70 to 75 puts ahead of earnings, expecting the stock to decline. The rationale is based on the stock's recent performance and the potential for a decline due to earnings. The speaker is not covering the positions, indicating a commitment to the trade. The risk is that the stock could rise, leading to a loss on the short put position.
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Strategyshort put
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort the 70 to 75 puts ahead of earnings
Target / exitprofit from the stock's potential decline
Invalidation / stopif the stock rises above the strike price
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The stock could rise, leading to a loss on the short put position.
- Earnings could be better than expected, leading to a decline in the put's value.
Trade idea
META strangles
The speaker proposed selling strangles on Meta (META) due to the high IVR, expecting a volatility drop post-earnings. The trade was based on the assumption that the high IVR would decrease, allowing for profit. The speaker emphasized closing the trade if the IVR dropped significantly or if the underlying assumption (e.g., volatility) changed. The trade was considered risky if the position became too capital-intensive, and the speaker suggested reducing the size or rolling the position if necessary.
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Strategystrangles
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term (around earnings event)
Entry / triggerhigh IVR (Implied Volatility Ratio) due to earnings
Target / exitIVR drops significantly or underlying assumption changes
Invalidation / stopposition too capital intensive or deemed too risky
SpeakerTom
Risks- IVR does not drop significantly
- underlying assumption changes
- position becomes too capital-intensive
Trade idea
MU trading vehicle
The speaker views Micron (MU) as a great trading vehicle due to its high volatility and range-bound behavior. The speaker suggests that the market is ignoring risks and may eventually decline significantly, making MU a potential short-term trading opportunity. The speaker also notes that the evaluations of MU and other stocks like SanDisk are considered silly and stupid, indicating a potential overvaluation.
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Strategytrading vehicle
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is in a range-bound state with high volatility.
Target / exit200 to 210
Invalidation / stopMarket breaks out of the range or shows signs of a sustained trend.
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market may not follow the expected pattern.
- Volatility could lead to significant losses if the trade goes against the position.
Trade idea
yen futures sell puts
The yen is trading at a 5-year low, and the speaker has been long yen futures for three years while shorting puts. The strategy involves selling puts to collect premium while being prepared for downside risk. The yen's historical performance and current low suggest a potential long-term bullish trend, making this strategy viable. However, the speaker notes that the yen has not moved significantly in three to four years, indicating the need for careful position management.
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Strategysell puts
Assetcurrency
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggeryen trading at a 5-year low
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- downside risk if the yen declines
- limited liquidity in certain options
- volatility risk
Trade idea
SIL shorting silver ETF
The speaker shorted silver at 52, expecting a significant move to 112 or 113. The move was described as a rare and extreme event, with the speaker noting that it was a multi-standard deviation move. The speaker also discussed the challenges of hedging such a position, noting that gold only hedged 15-20% of the losses.
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Strategyshorting silver ETF
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price at 52
Target / exitsilver price at 112 or 113
Invalidation / stopsilver price moving against the short position
SpeakerRyan
Risks- Large potential losses if the position moves against the short
- Difficulty in hedging such a large position effectively
Trade idea
MU selling calls
The speaker suggests that selling calls closer to the money is a better approach than the wheel strategy for shorting MU. The rationale is that the stock is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the risk-reward ratio is more favorable with shorter-dated options. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of position sizing and the need to consider the time frame of the trade. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the stock will not continue its upward trend and that the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
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Strategyselling calls
Assetstock
ExpirationMarch
Time horizonshort-term (2 days)
Entry / triggerbefore earnings report
Target / exitprofit from potential downward move
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues its upward trend
SpeakerScott
Risks- The stock could continue its upward trend, leading to a loss
- Shorter-dated options carry higher risk due to limited time to recover from a wrong trade
Trade idea
Trade idea volatility
the implied volatility of SpaceX will settle into around 60
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Strategyvolatility
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort volatility and short premium in SpaceX
Target / exit60
Invalidation / stopif volatility holds near 100%
SpeakerTom Stoff
Risks- calls exploding on sharp rally
Trade idea
RKLB put selling
Rocket Labs is expected to decline, making the put sell strategy viable
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Strategyput selling
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwait for Rocket Labs to come back down a little bit
Target / exit20% return
Invalidation / stopstock price rising above 45
SpeakerTom
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movement
Trade idea
Trade idea ratio spread
low risk, low reward trade
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Strategyratio spread
Assetstock
Time horizon50 days
Entry / triggerstock on its lows
Target / exit50 cents
Invalidation / stopstock needs to come back down
Speakerunknown
Trade idea
Hood selling puts
The speaker mentions selling 73 puts on Hood, indicating a short position. They also express a preference for buying Hood in the low 70s, suggesting a potential bullish outlook. The speaker's strategy involves selling puts to collect premiums, which is a common options strategy for generating income. The trade idea is based on the speaker's belief that the stock may not move significantly, allowing them to profit from the premium collected.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetstock
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket is at a certain level
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The stock could move beyond the strike price, resulting in a loss if the put is exercised.
Trade idea
ZB volatility selling
The trader sold volatility on ZB when IVR was high and observed a decrease in IVR, resulting in a profit. The strategy involves selling volatility when IVR is high and buying back when it decreases. This approach is effective in tracking changes in implied volatility and can be applied to other assets with similar volatility patterns.
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Strategyvolatility selling
Assetbond
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR is high
Target / exitIVR decreases
Invalidation / stopIVR increases
SpeakerTP
Risks- IVR may increase, leading to losses
- market conditions may change rapidly
- trading platform limitations
Trade idea
NKE selling puts
The speaker discusses selling puts on Nike (NKE) with the intention of profiting from a potential rise in the stock price. The trade was initiated at a price of $43, with the puts sold at $2. The speaker acknowledges that the stock price dropped, resulting in a loss, and suggests that waiting for a better entry point might have been more effective. The thesis is that selling puts can be a viable strategy if the trader is confident in the stock's ability to rise above the strike price before expiration.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
Expiration43 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price at 43
Target / exitstock price at 45
Invalidation / stopstock price drops below 43
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Stock price drops below the strike price
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
ES Put Spread
In a high volatility environment, shorting put spreads on the ES (E-mini S&P 500) can be a profitable strategy. By selling put spreads and widening the spread, traders can capitalize on market rallies while limiting downside risk. This approach is particularly effective when volatility is elevated, as it allows traders to take advantage of market movements without overexposing their positions. The strategy should be adjusted based on market conditions, with a focus on managing risk and taking profits when the market moves in the desired direction.
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StrategyPut Spread
AssetFutures
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigh volatility environment
Target / exitProfit from market rallies
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the short position
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market moves against the short position
- Volatility decreases
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SPY call spread
high probability profit with a wide spread
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember 18th
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket up
Target / exithigh probability profit
Invalidation / stopmarket moves beyond expected range
SpeakerTony AI
Risks- market moves beyond expected range
Trade idea
Trade idea calendar spreads
short puts in the yen can be a viable strategy for profiting from volatility
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Strategycalendar spreads
Assetcurrency
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort puts in the yen
Target / exitprofit from volatility
SpeakerTom
Risks- market direction
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Nvidia Shorting calls on Nvidia
The speaker sold 205 puts and 250 calls on Nvidia, expecting limited price movement. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will not move significantly, allowing the seller to profit from the premium. The speaker plans to cover the position at $1.50 if the price reaches that level, aiming for a 25% return. The trade is considered high-risk due to the potential for significant price movements.
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StrategyShorting calls on Nvidia
AssetEquity
ExpirationFriday
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia closes at 204
Target / exit167
Invalidation / stopIf the price rises above 250
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Significant price movement in either direction
- Failure to cover the position at the planned price
- Market volatility leading to unexpected outcomes
Trade idea
Gas put selling
The speaker discusses a trade idea involving selling June 250 puts on gas, which is at its lowest level in a long time. The trade has an 88% probability of profit, with a capital requirement of approximately $1,400. The trade is considered a low-risk, high-reward opportunity with a potential return of over 20% within a short time frame. The speaker suggests that this trade is a good example of how to capitalize on a market at its lowest point.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice at or near all-time low
Target / exit350
Invalidation / stopprice moves significantly higher
SpeakerMax
Risks- Price could move significantly higher
- Market volatility could increase
Trade idea
S&P 500 sell at 7361
The speaker sold the S&P 500 at 7361, indicating a short position. The market has since returned to that level, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the market may not continue upward beyond the previous high, but the exact target and stop are not specified.
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Strategysell at 7361
Assetindex
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggersell at 7361
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Risks- market reversal
- volatility
- slippage
Trade idea
CL pairs trade
The speaker suggests that while crude oil and gold may show divergence, they are not a classic pair with high correlation. Therefore, a pairs trade between CL and GC is not recommended as a reliable hedge. However, if a trader chooses to proceed, they should focus on micro-level trades and be aware of the low correlation and potential for divergence.
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Strategypairs trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerCrude oil near recent highs
Target / exitGold near recent lows
Invalidation / stopHigh correlation between crude oil and gold is required for the trade to be effective
SpeakerScott
Risks- Low correlation between assets
- Market volatility
- Potential for divergence
Trade idea
MU buying an inverse index fund to profit from a decline in the market
The speaker discusses buying an inverse index fund (MU) as a cheaper alternative to shorting an $800 stock. The speaker believes that the market is overvalued and that a decline is imminent, making the inverse fund a viable investment. The speaker also mentions that they have bought the fund at around 1850 and 1705, indicating a belief in the market's potential for a decline.
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Strategybuying an inverse index fund to profit from a decline in the market
Assetinverse index fund
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket decline
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further market decline
- Liquidity issues with inverse funds
Trade idea
GLD strangle
The speaker mentions selling a strangle in gold, indicating a short volatility strategy. The strangle involves selling both a put and a call option at different strike prices, aiming to profit from a range-bound market. The speaker's focus on volatility suggests that the trade is based on the expectation of limited price movement in the near term.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggermarket volatility
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market moves beyond the strangle's range
- Implied volatility decreases
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
null shorting gold and crude oil premiums
The speaker's two biggest positions are short gold and crude oil premiums, indicating a belief that these premiums are overvalued. The speaker suggests that these are the two favorite short premium plays on the board, implying that the speaker believes the premiums are likely to decline. The speaker also notes that the IVR (Implied Volatility Ratio) for these assets is high, suggesting that the premiums may be overbought and could experience a correction.
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Strategyshorting gold and crude oil premiums
Assetnull
Expirationnull
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggergold and crude oil premiums are high
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTommy Scott
Risks- Market conditions may change, leading to unexpected price movements.
- The speaker's positions may be affected by broader market trends or macroeconomic factors.
Trade idea
IBIT strangle
stock will stay in a narrow range
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
Time horizon52 days
Entry / triggerstock price movement
Target / exitpositive delta
Invalidation / stopstock movement
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL short crude oil
crude oil is more of a seller rather a buyer
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Strategyshort crude oil
Assetcommodity
Entry / triggercurrent price at 85
Target / exitprice jumps back up to 86-88
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Trade idea
silver shorting silver based on its recent price movement
The speaker sold silver above $76 in the morning, anticipating a price drop. The trade is based on the expectation that silver would move lower, with a target at $73. The invalidation level is set at $78, indicating that if silver rises above this level, the trade would be considered invalid. The trade is part of a broader strategy involving gold and silver pairs, with the speaker noting that the trade is moving all over the place due to the volatility of silver.
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Strategyshorting silver based on its recent price movement
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver traded above $76
Target / exitsilver price drops to $73
Invalidation / stopsilver price rises above $78
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Price could move against the trade if silver rises instead of falling
- Volatility could lead to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
micro silver futures rolling out the position
The speaker is short Jan 66 calls for micro silver futures, which has experienced a parabolic move. The speaker is uncertain about whether to close, hold, roll out, or add a stop loss. The speaker suggests rolling out the position due to the high premium and the potential for a reversal. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of managing multiple positions and not letting a single trade dictate the entire portfolio.
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Strategyrolling out the position
Assetfutures
ExpirationJan
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort Jan 66 calls
Target / exitreversal to 66 or 60
Invalidation / stopstop at 87
SpeakerTom
Risks- The trade could result in significant losses if the price continues to rise
- The high premium may not be justified if the price does not reverse
- The market conditions could change rapidly, affecting the trade's outcome
Trade idea
SLV strangles or iron condors
The speaker recommends short strangles or iron condors in SLV when IVR is high, as the ETF's smaller size and high volatility make it a suitable candidate for volatility-based strategies. The strategy involves rolling positions forward to Feb rather than Jan, and avoiding adding to existing positions. The rationale is that high IVR indicates potential for large price swings, making volatility-based strategies more profitable. The risks include the potential for large losses if IVR drops unexpectedly or if the market moves against the position.
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Strategystrangles or iron condors
AssetETF
ExpirationFeb
Time horizonShort-term, with rolling positions forward
Entry / triggerHigh IVR
Target / exitUncertain, depends on IVR and market movement
Invalidation / stopIf IVR drops significantly or market moves against the position
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Large losses if IVR drops
- Market movement against the position
- Need for careful position management
Trade idea
NDX short premium
The speaker is considering taking a short premium position in the Nasdaq (NDX) due to its proximity to a 52-week high. The speaker is cautious about a potential rally and plans to start shorting on Friday. The speaker also mentions that the short premium play has worked out nicely and is considering covering some short premium. The speaker is aware of the IV ranks and plans to take a little bit of short premium here, even though the IV ranks are still above 30.
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Strategyshort premium
Assetindex
ExpirationApril
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNasdaq near 52-week high
Target / exit26,000
Invalidation / stopMarket rally or significant volatility
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market rally
- Significant volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nasdaq shorting the Nasdaq based on the expectation of a reversal
The speaker believes that the Nasdaq is overbought and that a reversal is imminent, based on the expectation of a gap up opening and an intraday reversal. The speaker has previously attempted to short the Nasdaq without success and is now considering the possibility of a reversal. The thesis is based on the speaker's analysis of market conditions and the expectation of a reversal.
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Strategyshorting the Nasdaq based on the expectation of a reversal
Assetindex
Time horizonintraday
Entry / triggerbased on the expected gap up opening and intraday reversal
Target / exit100 points in the S&P or similar
Invalidation / stopif the market continues to move higher without a reversal
SpeakerScott
Risks- The market could continue to move higher without a reversal
- The reversal could be smaller than expected
Trade idea
natural_gas strangle
The speaker is short strangles on natural gas, adjusting positions daily by buying the guts and selling them back out. The strategy involves maintaining small positions and adjusting based on IV levels. The thesis is that the price will reverse or the IV will drop, allowing for profit. However, the risk is that the price could continue to rise, invalidating the trade.
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Strategystrangle
Assetfutures
Expirationcurrent_month
Time horizonshort-term (days to weeks)
Entry / triggerprice near 20-30 delta
Target / exitprice reversal or IV drop to 90
Invalidation / stopprice continues to rise beyond 30 delta or IV remains above 130
Speakertrader
Risks- High volatility can lead to rapid losses
- Price could continue to rise beyond expected levels
- IV may not drop as anticipated
Trade idea
gold mean reversion
The speaker believes that gold is overbought and may correct from its current level of $4,900. They suggest that the market may be in a state of extreme price, which could lead to a mean reversion. The speaker also mentions that they are short silver and long gold as a hedge, indicating a strategic position based on the relative performance of the two metals.
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Strategymean reversion
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggergold at $4,900
Target / exitgold at $4,650
Invalidation / stopgold at $5,000
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Opinions are subjective and not guaranteed to be accurate
Trade idea
MO shorting a parabolic stock
The speaker is shorting MO (Microsoft) due to its recent parabolic move, which has been described as excessive. The speaker believes the stock is overbought and expects a correction. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the stock's recent performance is unsustainable and that the market will correct the overvaluation.
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Strategyshorting a parabolic stock
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock rallies up today
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Potential for continued upward movement
- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
ZB sell bond puts
The speaker suggests that the bond market is signaling a potential policy shift, such as a Trump put, and that the yield curve is wide, indicating a potential for further movement in the market. The speaker proposes selling bond puts as a trade, with a target of 114 and a stop at the low 114s. The trade is based on the idea that the bond market is acting as a 'bond vigilante' pushing yields down in anticipation of policy changes.
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Strategysell bond puts
Assetbond
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the bond market is signaling a potential policy shift, such as a Trump put, and the yield curve is wide
Target / exit114
Invalidation / stopif the bond market does not signal a policy shift or if the yield curve narrows
SpeakerRyan
Risks- The trade is speculative and based on market sentiment rather than concrete data.
- The bond market may not signal a policy shift, leading to a loss on the trade.
- The yield curve may narrow, reducing the potential for a trade outcome.
Trade idea
SPX volatility-based
The speaker believes that the VIX is approaching 30, which could lead to significant market volatility. The inverse relationship between crude oil and the S&P index is highlighted as a key factor to monitor. The speaker suggests that the market may experience wild swings if the VIX reaches 30, and that traders should be cautious and prepared for increased volatility. The speaker also mentions that triple witching next week could provide trading opportunities, but the market is expected to be volatile.
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Strategyvolatility-based
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerVIX approaching 30
Target / exitVIX reaching 30
Invalidation / stopVIX dropping below 25
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to significant losses
- The inverse relationship may not hold consistently
- The speaker's personal position is not disclosed
Trade idea
AAPL put spread
contrarian play
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Strategyput spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price down 235
Target / exit235
Invalidation / stopstock price up
Speakerunknown
Structure / legs- September 295 put
- September 285 put
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected stock price movement
Trade idea
AAPL put spread
Apple's weakness after a downgrade could be exploited with a put spread
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Strategyput spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerApple going lower
Target / exit266
Invalidation / stopmarket going higher
SpeakerScott
Risks- market reversal
- volatility changes
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL sell premium
The speaker suggests that crude oil is rangebound and advises selling premium if necessary. They believe the price is unlikely to hold above 74 and prefer being at 67. They are not willing to go short at 74 but would consider selling premium. If the price approaches 80, they would be more open to selling short. The trade idea is to sell premium in the current range, with a target of 77 to 80 and an invalidation level at 74.
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Strategysell premium
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice above 74
Target / exit77 to 80
Invalidation / stopprice drops below 74
Speakerspeaker
Risks- price drops below 74
- volatility increases
- market sentiment shifts
Trade idea
Dell selling calls and puts
The speaker believes that the IBR being above 100 indicates a potential trade opportunity for Dell. By selling 600 calls and 300 puts for August, the speaker anticipates a price range that could result in a profit of five to six bucks. The strategy is based on the assumption that the IBR will move above 100 and that the stock will trade within the predicted range.
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Strategyselling calls and puts
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIBR above 100
Target / exitfive to six bucks
Invalidation / stopIf the IBR remains below 100 or if the stock price moves outside the predicted range
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility affecting the stock price
- Incorrect interpretation of the IBR
- Potential for the stock to move outside the predicted range
Trade idea
soybeans strangle
The speaker suggests selling a 1290/1120 strangle on soybeans for a credit of $712. This is a delta-neutral trade with a high IVR of 93, indicating a potential for significant returns. The trade is considered attractive due to the high implied volatility and the potential for a 75% pop. The speaker also mentions that this trade is being considered alongside a Dell trade due to the high IVR observed in soybeans.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price level
Target / exitcredit of $712
Invalidation / stopif the price moves beyond the strangle range
SpeakerThe bat
Structure / legs- sell 1290 call
- sell 1120 put
Risks- volatility risk
- time decay
- market movement beyond the strangle range
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker is short strangles on SLV, with the put at 51.48 and the call at 52.49. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock is on its lows and will not move significantly. The speaker mentions that the trade is expected to have a 64% pop and an IVR of 31. The trade is considered a good opportunity due to the current market conditions and the potential for a profit.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock is on its lows
Target / exit1.00
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerTony
Structure / legs- short put at 51.48
- short call at 52.49
Risks- Significant market movement against the trade
- Time decay reducing the value of the options
Trade idea
IWM premium selling
The speaker has been short premium in IWM throughout the year, but it has not been a good trade so far. The speaker suggests that IWM has been the worst performer among major indices, and the strategy is to collect premium by selling calls. The thesis is that the market rally may continue, and IWM could be a good candidate for premium selling if it continues to underperform.
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Strategypremium selling
Assetindex
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket rally
Target / exitpremium collection
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues to underperform
SpeakerSheridan
Risks- Market downturn
- Underperformance of IWM
- Volatility in the market
Trade idea
ZN selling out-of-the-money puts
The speaker is selling out-of-the-money puts on ZN (109 or 108.5) and buying a call spread on 109-110, based on low implied volatility and a directional bias. The trade is expected to profit from the directional movement of the bond market, with a focus on short-term expiration. The strategy is based on the speaker's default approach of using delta ranges and expiration periods.
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Strategyselling out-of-the-money puts
Assetbond
Expiration45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerimplied volatility is low
Target / exitprofit from directional movement
Invalidation / stopif the market moves against the directional bias
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- put on 109 or 108.5
- call spread on 109-110
Risks- Market moves against the directional bias
- Implied volatility increases
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
Bonds put selling
The speaker is shorting the 110 puts on bonds, which are trading around 58. They sold them at 54 and 50, indicating a belief that the market will not move significantly against their short position. The speaker notes that bonds are down 24 ticks, suggesting a potential for the put positions to profit if the market continues to decline. However, the risk of the market moving against the short position is a key consideration.
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Strategyput selling
Assetfixed_income
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket down 24 ticks
Target / exit54 and 50
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the short position
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- increased volatility
- unexpected economic events
Trade idea
ZB selling puts
The trader is selling puts on ZB (30-year Treasury bonds) with an August expiration, targeting a strike price of 110. The trade is considered a high probability trade with a break-even point at 109. The trader believes that the market is unlikely to reach the break-even level due to the current economic environment. The trade is designed to collect a premium while limiting downside risk. The trader also mentions similar strategies for ZN (10-year Treasury notes), selling puts at a strike price of 108.5 with a break-even point at 108.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetbond
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price around 110 handle
Target / exitbreak-even at 109
Invalidation / stopif bonds fall below 109
SpeakerLisa
Structure / legs- August expiration
- strike price of 110
- premium collected
Risks- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Potential for unexpected volatility
- Need for accurate market analysis
Trade idea
MEES scalping
The speaker advises against hedging or spreading off a losing scalp trade. Instead, a scalp trade should be treated as a standalone position, and one should either take profit or accept the loss without attempting to hedge or spread off the losing scalp. This approach prevents confusion and potential worsening of the situation. The speaker also mentions that MEES is a liquid micro future with a $125 per tick and $5 a point, and a decent scalping range is 20 to 40% of the expected one-day move.
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Strategyscalping
Assetfutures
Time horizonshort-term (scalping)
Entry / triggershorting a future in crude oil or gold
Target / exit20-40% of the expected one-day move
Invalidation / stop2x loss is considered optimal
Speakerunknown
Risks- Confusion from hedging strategies
- Potential for increased losses if hedging is attempted
Trade idea
SPX selling zero-day options and buying long wings
The speaker suggests that selling zero-day options and buying long wings can be a strategy for managing risk in the SPX. They note that adjustments are necessary due to SPX fluctuations, and the approach involves frequent recentering of long wings. The strategy is based on the idea that frequent adjustments can help capture volatility while managing risk.
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Strategyselling zero-day options and buying long wings
Assetindex
Expiration3 weeks
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdaily trading with frequent adjustments
Target / exitrecentering long wings based on SPX fluctuations
Invalidation / stopadjustments based on SPX movements
SpeakerSol
Structure / legs- zero-day short
- long wings (3 weeks out)
Risks- volatility in SPX
- need for frequent adjustments
- potential for large losses if SPX moves against the position
Trade idea
MU shorting a directional stock with high volatility
MU is a directional stock with high volatility. Shorting it when it is at a new high can be profitable if the price reverts to a previous level or consolidates. However, the risk of a significant upward move must be managed, and the trade should be monitored closely.
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Strategyshorting a directional stock with high volatility
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term, with potential for quick reversal
Entry / triggerStock is at a new high, with high volatility
Target / exitPrice reverts to a previous level or consolidates
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward move beyond expected range
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility can lead to larger-than-expected price swings
- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Liquidity issues in the stock
Trade idea
SPX volatility-based
The speaker mentions selling S&P futures (SPX) when the VIX indicates higher volatility but the market does not move as expected. This suggests a strategy of shorting the index when volatility signals are misleading, with the expectation that the market will not follow the volatility trend. The speaker also notes that they held NASDAQ futures (QQQ) and adjusted their positions based on market conditions, indicating a dynamic approach to managing risk.
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Strategyvolatility-based
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigher volatility with lower actual market movement
Target / exitUncertain, based on market conditions
Invalidation / stopMarket movement exceeding volatility signals
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market movement exceeding volatility signals
- Incorrect interpretation of volatility signals
- Liquidity issues in futures markets
Trade idea
Trade idea covered call
the market has come back and forth, making it a great selling opportunity
View full notes
Strategycovered call
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is in a two-sided market
Target / exitsell some stuff when the market is a great selling opportunity
Invalidation / stopif the market rallies back up again, sell them again
Speakerunknown
Risks- market rally
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Trade idea selling premium
The speaker prefers trading NASDAQ futures or futures options to avoid single stock risk.
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Strategyselling premium
Assetfutures
Entry / triggershort NQ
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Single stock risk if short MOO
Trade idea
IVR strangle
strangle strategy with specific strike prices and expiration date
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Strategystrangle
Assetcurrency
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock's up today
Target / exitmax profit of $39
Invalidation / stopstock's movement
Speakerunknown
Risks- stock's movement
- market volatility
Trade idea
ROBINHOOD put selling
The speaker sold 74 puts against Robinhood, expecting the stock to trade within a certain range. However, the stock opened lower than expected, indicating a potential downside surprise. The trade's validity depends on the stock's movement relative to the strike price. The speaker acknowledges the risk of paying for the move, highlighting the need for careful risk management in such trades.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
Expirationunknown
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price around 72.5
Target / exitunknown
Invalidation / stopstock price moving against the trade
SpeakerTom
Risks- downside surprises
- volatility
- unexpected market movements
Trade idea
META strangle
The speaker is short a skewed strangle on oil, expecting a $10 or $15 drop before a $10 rise. The trade is based on the belief that the market is long oil, and the speaker is taking a short position to capitalize on potential downside. The trade is considered low risk due to the skewed strangle structure, which limits upside risk while capturing potential downside.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket opens
Target / exitOil price drops $10 or $15
Invalidation / stopIf oil price rises $10
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- short calls with twice the delta of puts
Risks- Oil price rises unexpectedly
- Volatility decreases, reducing the effectiveness of the strangle
Trade idea
Nasdaq selling puts
The speaker is considering selling puts on the Nasdaq index, particularly on large tech stocks like Meta, Microsoft, and Google, as a hedge against their existing short position. However, they express reluctance due to the potential risk of losing money if the market moves against their position. The speaker acknowledges that selling puts is typically done on stocks one is willing to own, but they are not interested in owning these stocks at current levels.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerearnings reports
Invalidation / stopmarket movement against the short position
SpeakerScott
Risks- loss if the market moves against the short position
- potential for large losses if the stock price drops significantly
Trade idea
NASDAQ sell premium
A significant market decline, such as a 1,600 handle drop in the NASDAQ, can signal the end of a bullish trend. This creates an opportunity for short positions due to the high implied volatility and potential for price changes in stocks. The strategy involves selling premium to capitalize on the expected market consolidation or reversal.
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Strategysell premium
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerSignificant market decline
Target / exitPrice reversal or consolidation
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or continued bullish trend
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility not materializing
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
COINBASE put spread
The speaker mentions a trade involving a put spread on Coinbase that was closed on Friday afternoon. They note that the trade was not executed this morning due to the stock's price increase of $7. The trade was considered a good opportunity at the time, but the speaker acknowledges that the trade would not be repeated due to the price movement.
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Strategyput spread
Assetequity
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerclosed on Friday afternoon
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopstock price increase of $7
SpeakerBat
Risks- price increase
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Silver sell on the open
The speaker suggests that silver had a significant sell-off and a small bounce back, but is now showing no movement. The speaker believes that the price will break back down, and proposes selling on the open. The speaker also mentions that they would love to go short on the open, but acknowledges that it is not possible. The speaker's reasoning is based on the belief that the price will continue to decline, and that the small float of the stock will lead to significant price movements.
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Strategysell on the open
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersell on the open
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- The price may not break back down as expected
- The small float may not lead to significant price movements
- The speaker's personal experience may not be universally applicable
Trade idea
SPX options wheeling
The trader uses the premium from a mag 10 wheeling strategy on SPX to roll into short-dated options. The strategy involves balancing between zero-dated and one-day options, with a focus on the mathematical aspects of SPX. The trader acknowledges that the 45-day SPX options caused issues in April, but the overall approach remains effective. The trader views the VIX move as an opportunity for buying dips, with the VIX at 1835 indicating a potential range-bound market.
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Strategyoptions wheeling
Assetindex
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerpremium from wheeling strategy
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopmarket move against the position
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- short-dated options
- zero-dated options
Risks- Market volatility
- inability to exit positions during sharp moves
- changes in market regime
Trade idea
CRUDE OIL options selling
The speaker believes crude oil is overrated due to excessive buying activity and inflated premium levels in options. They sold calls on crude oil, expecting the premium to revert to more normal levels. The trade is based on the idea that the market has overreacted to bullish sentiment, and the premium will eventually normalize. The risks include continued bullish momentum and unexpected price increases.
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Strategyoptions selling
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril 16th
Time horizonshort-term (day trading)
Entry / triggermarket opens with elevated premium
Target / exitpremium reverts to previous levels
Invalidation / stoppremium continues to rise beyond initial levels
SpeakerJerry
Risks- continued bullish momentum
- unexpected price increases
- volatility spikes
Trade idea
Walmart iron condor
Close the position to avoid earnings event and free up capital
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Strategyiron condor
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust 20th
Time horizon32 days
Entry / triggerIVR over 30
Target / exit20% profit
Invalidation / stopEarnings event
SpeakerConstantine
Risks- Earnings event could impact the position negatively
Trade idea
IVR put
Better than 50/50 and IVR
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Strategyput
Assetequity
Entry / triggerNasdaq futures are up about 150
Target / exit34 bid
SpeakerTom
Trade idea
FLYYQ shorting a pink sheet stock
The speaker expresses a strong aversion to trading the stock of FLYYQ, a pink sheet stock, due to its low price and potential volatility. They suggest that it is an interesting dilemma for the government, but they do not propose a specific trade action. The speaker's uncertainty about the stock's price and the potential for a price increase indicates a cautious approach to trading this stock.
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Strategyshorting a pink sheet stock
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price below a dollar
Target / exitpotential price increase
Invalidation / stopprice increase above a certain level
Speakerspeaker
Risks- high volatility
- low liquidity
- regulatory risks
Trade idea
Micron shorting Micron
The speaker shorted Micron at lower prices, expecting a move of $41 for the week. However, the move was larger than expected at $45, leading to a loss. The speaker acknowledges that the trade was not good and that the puts bought for $25 may not be effective unless the sell-off is significant. The trade is considered a short-term play with a high risk of market reversal.
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Strategyshorting Micron
Assetequity
Time horizonweek
Entry / triggershort Micron at lower prices
Target / exitexpected move of $41 for the week
Invalidation / stopif the sell-off is minor, the puts may be 'killed'
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market reversal
- unexpected price movement
- limited upside potential
Trade idea
silver short-term trading
The speaker executed a short-term trading strategy on silver, selling at higher price levels and buying at lower ones. They emphasized the importance of timing and market conditions, indicating that traders should be vigilant about price movements and adjust their positions accordingly. The strategy involves active monitoring and quick decision-making to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations.
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Strategyshort-term trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice reaches a specific level (e.g., 93)
Target / exitPrice drops to a lower level (e.g., 87)
Invalidation / stopPrice moves against the trade (e.g., rises above 93)
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Timing errors
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
COIN put selling
The speaker suggests selling the July 130 puts on COIN, as the stock is near its 52-week low and the put premium is attractive. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock will remain near the low, allowing the seller to profit from the premium. The speaker notes that the put premium has increased due to higher volatility, making the trade more attractive.
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Strategyput selling
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term, with a focus on the July expiration
Entry / triggerStock price near the 52-week low
Target / exitPotential profit from the put premium
Invalidation / stopIf the stock price rises significantly above the strike price
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- If the stock price rises significantly above the strike price, the put seller may incur a loss.
- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
Trade idea
COINBASE ratio spread
The speaker suggests selling the July 13 puts at 70 for Coinbase as a trade idea. The trade is based on the assumption that the market is overbought and the potential reward is equal to the potential risk. The trade is considered a balanced play due to the equal risk and reward. The speaker also mentions that the trade is still doable and that the market is expected to move in the expected direction.
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Strategyratio spread
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly 13
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is overbought
Target / exitMarket moves down to 70
Invalidation / stopMarket moves up or the trade is closed
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market moves up
- Market moves in the opposite direction
- The trade is not suitable for long-term holding
Trade idea
NFLX Put selling
The speaker sold put options on Netflix (NFLX) with a strike price around 90, expecting the price to remain above that level. The rationale is based on the belief that the stock is overpriced and that the recent earnings report, while positive, may not justify the current price. The trade idea is to profit from a potential decline in the stock price, with the put options acting as a hedge against downward movement.
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StrategyPut selling
AssetEquity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice above 93.5
Target / exitPrice below 90
Invalidation / stopPrice above 95
SpeakerSol
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected earnings report
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NASDAQ sell now
The speaker suggests that every rally is a sell now, implying a short-term bearish outlook. The current levels are described as an interesting spot to risk a little to make a lot, but the speaker also acknowledges the risk of a small gain. The reasoning is based on the idea that the market is at levels of complacency and leverage, which may lead to a sudden shift once external factors change.
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Strategysell now
Assetequity_index
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent levels
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market may continue to rally, leading to losses on a short position.
- The speaker's view is speculative and not based on concrete data or models.
Trade idea
SPX short puts
The speaker suggests that if the market is not expected to continue breaking down, selling puts on the SPX is a viable strategy to capture premium. This is based on the idea that the market may rally, and the puts would be profitable if the market moves against the short position. However, the strategy is invalid if the market continues to decline, as the puts would be in the money and result in losses. The speaker also mentions that selling calls can be an alternative strategy, but the calls are more risky as they can be 'killed' if the market rallies.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket is not expected to continue breaking down
Target / exitpremium capture
Invalidation / stopmarket continues to break down
SpeakerTom
Risks- market continues to break down
- premium erosion
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
IBM range trading
The speaker is considering shorting IBM as it approaches the lower end of its range. The reasoning is that the market could rebound, but the speaker is cautious and is only nibbling on small positions. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the price will not break below the lower end of the range, making it a short-term range trading opportunity.
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Strategyrange trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice approaching the lower end of the range
Target / exitprice rebounding to the upper end of the range
Invalidation / stopprice breaking below the lower end of the range
SpeakerRyan
Risks- price breaking below the lower end of the range
- unexpected market volatility
Trade idea
COIN call spreads
Selling out-of-the-money call spreads on COIN at the expected move of $34 in April is a strategic way to hedge against crypto exposure. The spread is set with a $10 buffer, and the trade is considered a good hedge against cash crypto positions. The strong correlation between COIN and Bitcoin/ETH supports this strategy, and the trade is expected to be profitable if COIN moves up to the expected level.
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Strategycall spreads
Assetcrypto
ExpirationApril
Time horizonApril
Entry / triggerCOIN trading around $176 with an expected move of $34
Target / exit210 or 220
Invalidation / stopIf COIN moves beyond the expected move or if the correlation with Bitcoin/ETH weakens
SpeakerUnknown
Structure / legs- sell 210 calls
- buy 220 calls
Risks- Market volatility could affect the effectiveness of the spread
- The correlation between COIN and Bitcoin/ETH may change over time
Trade idea
MU delta neutralization
The speaker discusses using futures for delta neutralization, specifically mentioning the use of stock for hedging in the case of MU. The strategy involves using futures to hedge against market movements, with a preference for micro futures due to their smaller size and ease of trading. The speaker also mentions the use of ES or NQ futures for hedging delta, indicating a preference for these instruments over stocks for broader market exposure.
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Strategydelta neutralization
Assetstock
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerIf the market moves against the position
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerJeff
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues with specific stocks or futures
- Inability to hedge effectively if the market moves rapidly
Trade idea
SAN Strangle
The speaker is selling strangles on SanDisk (SAN) with a short-term horizon. The strategy involves selling both a put and a call option, with the put having a strike price of $6 or $7 and the call having a strike price of $20. The target is for the price to drop to the put strike price, while the invalidation is if the price rises above the call strike price. The speaker is confident in the short-term volatility of the stock, expecting a price drop.
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StrategyStrangle
AssetEquity
ExpirationN/A
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket price above strike price
Target / exitPrice drops to $6 or $7
Invalidation / stopPrice rises above $20
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Price rises above $20
- Volatility decreases
- Market conditions change
Trade idea
MSTR short-term
The speaker expresses strong skepticism about MicroStrategy (MSTR) and suggests it is a 'death trade' due to its single point of failure and poor performance. The speaker believes the stock is likely to go bankrupt or continue declining, and that no one has made money from it since its peak. The speaker's thesis is based on historical performance and the perceived risks associated with the company's business model.
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Strategyshort-term
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMSTR below 90
Target / exitpotential bankruptcy or significant decline
Invalidation / stopif MSTR recovers significantly
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Company-specific risks
- Potential for further decline
Trade idea
MSTR put options
The speaker proposes selling MSTR August 21 puts at $1.50, indicating a short position on the stock. The rationale is based on the current market conditions and the speaker's belief that the stock is overvalued. The trade idea is supported by the speaker's direct statement to sell the puts immediately.
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Strategyput options
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust 21
Time horizonimmediate
Entry / triggerAugust 21 puts are at $1.50
Target / exitsell at $1.50
Invalidation / stopMarket conditions or price movement beyond the strike price
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Structure / legs- August 21, 45 puts at $1.50
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect assessment of stock value
- Liquidity issues in options market
Trade idea
Trade idea contrarian sentiment analysis
contrarian logic suggests a sell signal when investors are extremely bullish and heavily positioned
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Strategycontrarian sentiment analysis
Time horizonbefore the market turn
Entry / triggerextreme bullish sentiment and heavy positioning
Speakerspeaker
Risks- difficulty in timing the market turn
- potential for false signals
Trade idea
Trade idea short put
selling an S&P 12 delta short put
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Strategyshort put
Assetindex
Entry / triggerwhen the market is at a certain level
SpeakerTom Snoff
Trade idea
Trade idea strangles
strangles can be effective if the stock price moves within expected range
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Strategystrangles
Assetfutures
Time horizonintraday
Entry / triggerearnings report
Target / exit55 or 60 cents
Invalidation / stopstock price movement
Speakerspeaker
Risks- unexpected volatility
- earnings surprises
Trade idea
crude oil selling 245 puts and 3 to 305 call spread for 570
no risk to the upside
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Strategyselling 245 puts and 3 to 305 call spread for 570
Assetcommodity
Entry / triggerno risk to the upside
Target / exitpop of 80%
Invalidation / stopexplosive up moves
Speakerunknown
Trade idea
S&P 500 shorting the S&P 500 due to its upward movement
The speaker decided to short the S&P 500 due to its upward movement, indicating a belief that the market would reverse. This decision was based on the speaker's observation of the market's behavior and their personal trading strategy. The speaker also mentioned selling call spreads in the Qs and other instruments, suggesting a diversified approach to shorting the market.
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Strategyshorting the S&P 500 due to its upward movement
Assetindex
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggermarket moving upward
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market can continue to move upward
- Leverage can increase potential losses
- Market volatility can lead to unexpected price movements
Trade idea
NFLX put selling
The speaker suggests that during earnings cycles with low volatility, selling puts on stocks like Netflix (NFLX) can be a profitable strategy. The implied moves are expected to be around 6-7%, and the puts are relatively cheap due to the low volatility environment. The speaker emphasizes that the key is to trade outside the expected move, as trading inside the expected move is less profitable. The risk is increased if there is a market shock, as the risk is not adequately priced into the options.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
Expirationunknown
Time horizonEarnings event
Entry / triggerEarnings cycle with low baseline volatility
Target / exitImplied move of 6-7%
Invalidation / stopMarket shock or significant move beyond expected range
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market shock
- Significant move beyond expected range
- Low volatility environment may not persist
Trade idea
SMH call spread
The speaker suggests selling a call spread on SMH, which has shown hyperbolic price movements. The expected move is significantly higher than the current price, and the options have a high IVR. The trade offers a substantial pop with a favorable risk-reward ratio, making it an attractive opportunity for shorting a hyperbolic asset.
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Strategycall spread
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock has been hyperbolic and is trading above the expected move
Target / exitUpwards of $30, possibly closer to $35
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerUnknown
Structure / legs- July 725 call
- July 730 call
Risks- Large potential losses if the stock moves against the trade
- Illiquidity of options
- Inaccurate prediction of price movement
Trade idea
Uber strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle on Uber despite its low price, citing its non-AI status and decent implied volatility. The strategy involves skewing the strangle slightly to account for upside risk, with the rationale that the stock's current position near its lows makes it a viable candidate for a short strangle. The thesis is based on the assumption that the stock's low price and volatility provide a favorable risk-reward profile.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading near its lows with decent implied volatility
Invalidation / stopif the stock breaks out significantly upward
Speakerunknown
Risks- Potential for significant upside movement
- Volatility may not materialize as expected
- Market news could disrupt the trade
Trade idea
SPCE credit spread
The speaker suggests a credit spread strategy for SpaceX (SPCE) based on its high expected move of $37. The trade involves buying 105 puts 5 times and selling 95 puts 12 times, resulting in a credit of $425-$430. The expected move is expected to take the stock down to $127, with a break-even point at $90. The trade is considered a short premium trade, and the speaker is cautious about the stock crashing. The trade is not long-term and is executed with a small position size.
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Strategycredit spread
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock trading at 164
Target / exitCredit of $425-$430
Invalidation / stopStock crashing
SpeakerUnknown
Structure / legs- Buy 105 puts 5 times
- Sell 95 puts 12 times
Risks- Stock crashing
- The credit collected is dependent on the stock's movement
- The trade is not long-term
Trade idea
SPX volatility trade
The speaker is short puts at the 100 level, anticipating a decline in volatility. The expected move by August expiration is 38 bucks, with the speaker adjusting their view to 37 bucks. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will close lower than its current price, with the potential for a short-term decline. The risk is that the stock may close higher, invalidating the trade. The trade is structured as a volatility trade, leveraging the expected decrease in volatility.
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Strategyvolatility trade
Assetindex
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility has been coming down a little
Target / exit38 bucks
Invalidation / stopif the stock closes higher than expected
Speakerspeaker
Structure / legs- puts at around the 100 level
Risks- The stock may close higher than expected, leading to a loss
- Volatility may not decrease as expected
- Market conditions may change, affecting the trade outcome
Trade idea
Trade idea put
The speaker suggests shorting a put option, indicating a bearish outlook on the underlying asset. The trade idea is based on the belief that the price is near 11, and the speaker is confident in the odds of the trade. The speaker mentions buying the asset at the IPO price of $135, suggesting a potential entry point. The trade is considered a short put, which implies the speaker expects the price to remain above the strike price. The speaker also mentions the potential for owning 100 shares at the IPO price, indicating a possible long position if the trade is adjusted or reviewed.
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Strategyput
Entry / triggerprice near 11
SpeakerKaton in Illinois
Risks- The price could move against the short put position, leading to losses.
- The underlying asset could experience volatility that affects the trade's outcome.
- The trade may require adjustments if the market moves unexpectedly.
Trade idea
SPX shorting the S&P 500 after a rally
The speaker has sold S&P 500 contracts at 7557 and has since bought some back at 47 and sold more at 67. The speaker is currently short and believes the market is rallying, with the S&P 500 being 10-13 points higher than the entry point. The thesis is that the market is in a rally, and the speaker is taking advantage of the upward movement by being short.
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Strategyshorting the S&P 500 after a rally
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerRally into the close
Target / exit10 points higher than the entry point
Invalidation / stopIf the market continues to rally beyond the target
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NASDAQ shorting from lower prices
The speaker is shorting the NASDAQ from lower prices, indicating a belief that the market may not sustain its recent rally. They mention being short from lower prices than current levels and express a cautious outlook, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation in the near term.
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Strategyshorting from lower prices
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading at lower prices than recent levels
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- Market reversal
- unexpected volatility
- short-term price gaps
Trade idea
S&P Market order
The speaker placed a short order on the S&P at 7100, expecting a rally after a market decline. The order was filled on the opening, and the speaker adjusted their position as the market rallied. The thesis is based on the belief that the market would rally after a decline, but the speaker acknowledges the uncertainty of market movements.
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StrategyMarket order
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket opens down
Target / exit7100
Invalidation / stopMarket rallies back
SpeakerTom Scott Sohl
Risks- Market could rally quickly
- Order could be filled at unfavorable prices
Trade idea
Trade idea fading the move
Fading the move involves betting against a trend when the market reaches a price extreme or a point of capitulation. The strategy is based on the idea that all trends eventually reverse, and the key is to identify the timing of that reversal. The example given is shorting Microsoft on Thursday and Friday, with the goal of a 1-2% decline. The trade is considered a swing trade, not a long-term bear market bet. The risk is that the trend may continue, invalidating the trade.
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Strategyfading the move
Time horizonShort-term, typically a few days to a week.
Entry / triggerIdentify a price extreme or point of capitulation in a trending market.
Target / exitA short-term reversal, such as a swing trade, with a target of a 1-2% decline.
Invalidation / stopIf the trend continues without reversal, the trade may be invalid.
SpeakerScott
Risks- The trend may continue without reversal
- Timing the reversal is subjective and can be difficult
- Market volatility may affect the trade outcome
Trade idea
spy selling puts
Selling puts on SPY is a capital-efficient strategy that has historically performed well, especially in markets where downside risk is more likely. This strategy is preferred over skewed strangles due to its simplicity and effectiveness in capturing premium while maintaining delta neutrality. The key is to ensure the market does not drift significantly upward, which could erode the profitability of the trade.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term to medium-term
Entry / triggerMarket conditions favoring downside risk
Target / exitPremium collected from put sales
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward movement or market volatility
SpeakerMaria from the dog pound
Risks- Market volatility
- Significant upward movement
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
S&P 500 short straddle
The current call skew in the S&P 500 options market is an extremely rare occurrence and is interpreted as a red flag. This suggests that the market is pricing in an unusual perception of upside risk, which is not typical. The speaker believes this is unsustainable and may lead to a significant market correction. A short straddle strategy could be considered to capitalize on the potential for a market move, either to the downside or a reversal in the skew.
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Strategyshort straddle
Assetindex
Expirationunknown
Time horizonunknown
Entry / triggercall skew is observed in the S&P 500 options market
Target / exitunknown
Invalidation / stopmarket moves significantly to the downside
Speakerunknown
Risks- The market may continue to trade in a bullish direction
- The skew may persist longer than expected
- The strategy may result in losses if the market moves in an unexpected direction
Trade idea
SPACEX shorting on the second day of trading
The speaker suggests that SpaceX stock will be available for shorting on the second day of its IPO, as there will be no stock available on the first day. The speaker also mentions that the stock is expected to be liquid and that options will be available within a day or two. The speaker advises caution due to the volatility of the stock and the lack of liquidity on the first day.
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Strategyshorting on the second day of trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort on the second day of trading
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Volatility
- Lack of liquidity on the first day
- Uncertainty in the stock's price range
Trade idea
Trade idea covered call
maximize profit with minimal action
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Strategycovered call
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock closes over 220 and profit is maximized
Target / exitmoney in account by next week
Invalidation / stopstock closes below 220
SpeakerTony
Risks- stock price drops below 220
Trade idea
Trade idea wheel strategy
short premium when no premium to roll
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Strategywheel strategy
Assetfutures options
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen futures options are in the money and no premium to roll
Target / exitlet expire into futures contract
SpeakerNotre Doggus
Risks- delivery risk
- market movement
Trade idea
SPX sell calls or puts
Trading zero DTE options involves selling premium either through calls or puts, with a focus on small positions due to the lack of time to adjust. The strategy emphasizes making a decision based on the expected market movement for the day, with the trader typically acting as a seller rather than a buyer. The key is to stay small and be cautious due to the high risk of rapid price movements without time to respond.
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Strategysell calls or puts
Assetindex
Expirationzero DTE
Time horizonDay
Entry / triggerMarket expected to be range-bound or move in a specific direction
Target / exitProfit from premium decay
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the expected direction
SpeakerTom
Risks- High risk due to lack of time to adjust
- Requires strong conviction in market direction
- Small position sizing is critical to manage risk
Trade idea
NVIDIA Strangle
The speaker sold out-of-the-money puts on NVIDIA at the 75 level expiring tomorrow and executed a one-for-two call ratio spread by buying the 205 and selling the 210s. The trade was successful as the puts were bought back for 10 cents and the call spread yielded about 15 cents. The strategy relies on the price remaining within the expected range, and the speaker noted that the trade worked out despite the overall market conditions.
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StrategyStrangle
AssetEquity
ExpirationTomorrow
Time horizonShort-term (within a day)
Entry / triggerPrice opens down $2
Target / exit15 cents profit from the call spread
Invalidation / stopIf the price moves beyond the expected range
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- Sell out-of-the-money puts at the 75 level expiring tomorrow
- Buy a one-for-two call ratio spread with the 205 sold and 210s bought
Risks- Price moves beyond the expected range
- Volatility changes
- Market conditions affecting the trade
Trade idea
NVIDIA sell earnings
The speaker proposed selling NVIDIA futures ahead of the earnings announcement, anticipating a negative market reaction. The trade was executed as a short position on futures, with the expectation that the earnings would lead to a decline in the stock price. The speaker noted that the trade was not successful, indicating that the market reaction did not align with the initial thesis.
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Strategysell earnings
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNVIDIA earnings announcement
Invalidation / stopmarket reaction to earnings
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility around earnings announcements
- Incorrect earnings guidance leading to adverse price movement
- Liquidity issues in futures markets
Trade idea
SPX shorting during sharp price declines
The speaker shorted the S&P 500 (SPX) at 7210 and 7209.5, taking profits as the price reversed to 7163. The trade was based on the expectation of a sharp reversal due to the high volatility and the completion of earnings plays. The speaker took partial profits and exited the trade without holding it long-term, indicating a short-term trading strategy.
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Strategyshorting during sharp price declines
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersharp price decline with high volatility
Target / exit50-point reversal
Invalidation / stopif the price continues to decline beyond the initial trade setup
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market reversal against the trade
- Increased volatility leading to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
NVIDIA shorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
The speaker suggests shorting NVIDIA after a significant drop, indicating a belief that the stock may continue to decline. The rationale is based on the idea that the stock has already dropped significantly and that the market may continue to punish it, especially if there are underlying issues such as earnings disappointments or broader market sentiment. The speaker also mentions that the stock is down $10, which is seen as a potential opportunity to short it further.
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Strategyshorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price down by $10
Target / exitprice drops to $30
Invalidation / stopprice rises above $40
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected earnings reports
Trade idea
AAPL Earnings trade
The speaker is considering selling puts against Apple's earnings, leaning towards selling the 57.5 puts with one day to expiration. The rationale is that the VIX is high, and selling premium early in the day is not ideal. The trade is expected to benefit from a potential rally, but the speaker is cautious due to the volatility and the need to avoid market shocks.
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StrategyEarnings trade
AssetEquity
ExpirationEnd of day
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerEarnings announcement
Target / exitUncertain, depends on market reaction
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the trade
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected earnings results
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea sell puts
Sell volatility in a large-cap company with high volatility
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Strategysell puts
Assetequity
Entry / triggerSell puts at 10, 105 volatility, 110 volatility
SpeakerKathy Woods
Trade idea
META strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle on Meta (META) with a strike range of 500 puts and 950 calls, based on an IVR of 113 and an expected move of $95. The trade is considered high-risk due to the high IVR and the potential for significant price movement. The speaker acknowledges the trade's volatility and suggests adjusting the strikes slightly and considering an iron condor if the trade is not desired. The trade is presented as a non-directional play, relying on the volatility and expected price movement.
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term, with adjustment after the show
Entry / triggerIVR of 113 and expected move of $95
Target / exitProfit from the strangle at $6.10
Invalidation / stopIf IVR drops significantly or the stock moves outside the expected range
SpeakerTom
Risks- High IVR and volatility
- Potential for significant price movement
- Risk of assignment if the stock moves below the strike price
Trade idea
NFLX credit spread
Netflix (NFLX) is a liquid stock with a history of significant price movements around earnings. Credit spreads can be used to collect premium before earnings, but the risk is that the price may move beyond the expected range, invalidating the trade. The strategy is suitable for a small account due to the limited capital required for the spread.
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Strategycredit spread
Assetequity
Expirationearnings date
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore earnings announcement
Target / exitpremium collected
Invalidation / stopsignificant price movement beyond expected range
SpeakerSteve
Risks- Significant price movement beyond expected range
- Volatility may affect the effectiveness of the spread
- Liquidity issues if the stock is not liquid
Trade idea
MU short position
The speaker and another individual have a short position on Micron (MU) and are discussing the probability of MU trading at $600 by the end of June. The speaker notes that statistically, the probability is likely zero, but they are using the platform to explore the prediction. This indicates a speculative short position based on the belief that the price will not reach $600 by the specified time.
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Strategyshort position
Assetequity
Expirationend of June
Time horizonmonth and a half
Entry / triggercurrent price
Target / exit600
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The price could rise above $600, leading to potential losses
- The prediction platform's accuracy is not guaranteed
Trade idea
MES futures shorting futures with defined risk
The speaker is shorting MES futures at 7475, 7485, and 7495, with the current price at 7518. The trade is based on the expectation that the futures will not continue to rise significantly beyond the initial risk. The speaker is considering taking profits at 7518, which is a 50% move from the entry point. However, the speaker is skeptical about the continued upward movement and suggests that the trade may need to be adjusted or closed if the price continues to rise.
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Strategyshorting futures with defined risk
Assetfutures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershorting at 7475, 7485, and 7495
Target / exit7518
Invalidation / stopif the futures continue to rise significantly beyond the initial risk
SpeakerStewart
Risks- continued upward movement of futures
- unexpected market volatility
Trade idea
MES Averaging down
The speaker sold MES futures at 7200 and discussed the potential for averaging down. They mentioned the market's volatility and the impact of events like Trump's plane trip on market movements. The speaker expressed uncertainty about holding the position but suggested holding due to the potential for further price movements.
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StrategyAveraging down
AssetFutures
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerSold at 7200
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further losses
- Uncertainty about market direction
Trade idea
SPX short put
The speaker discusses a scenario where a short put position was taken on the SPX, and the market experienced a significant drop. The trade was based on the expectation of a market decline, but the actual outcome was a crash that invalidated the trade. The speaker acknowledges the risk of such positions during periods of high volatility and uncertainty.
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Strategyshort put
Assetindex
Expirationnot_specified
Time horizonshort_term
Entry / triggermarket volatility or unexpected news
Target / exitnot_specified
Invalidation / stopnot_specified
Speakernot_specified
Risks- Market crashes can lead to significant losses.
- Systemic risks may invalidate trades.
- Liquidity issues can prevent execution of orders.
Trade idea
Bonds selling puts
The speaker is selling puts on bonds at 112, anticipating a potential price drop to 110. The rationale is based on the current yield levels being the highest in 19 years, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend. The risk is limited to the premium paid for the puts, and the trade is considered a hedge against a short position in the broader market. The invalidation level is set at 116, indicating a potential reversal of the trend.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetfixed_income
Expirationunknown
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbond prices at 110
Target / exit110
Invalidation / stop116
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected Fed policy changes
- Interest rate fluctuations
Trade idea
NKE put selling
The speaker suggests that the Nike trade is a cheap put to sell, but it requires a down tick in the stock. They also mention that the Vix not up-ticking could be a signal to pause short-side actions. This trade idea is based on the current market conditions and the speaker's analysis of the Vix and Nasdaq movements.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdown tick in the stock
Invalidation / stopif the Vix doesn't up-tick at all
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Failure to execute the down tick
- Potential for increased market downturn
Trade idea
S&P 500 shorting the S&P 500 due to a perceived overbought condition
The speaker mentions that the S&P 500 is currently trading near 6965, with the market being 1% away from new highs. The speaker had started to get a little short due to a perceived overbought condition, indicating a belief that the market may correct. The speaker also notes that the market is near the 7,000 level, which was a target for the short position. The thesis is based on the idea that the market may be overbought and could experience a pullback.
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Strategyshorting the S&P 500 due to a perceived overbought condition
Assetindex
ExpirationApril expiration
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerS&P 500 near 7,000
Target / exitS&P 500 at 6965
Invalidation / stopIf the S&P 500 continues to rise above 7,000
SpeakerScott
Risks- The market could continue to rise, resulting in a loss on the short position.
- The short position may be forced to close at a loss if the market moves against the trade.
- The market may not correct as expected, leading to a loss on the trade.
Trade idea
gold put selling
The speaker discusses selling puts in gold when the price was down $90, indicating a short position. The idea is to profit from a potential recovery in gold prices. The speaker acknowledges the risk of the market continuing to decline, which would invalidate the trade. The trade was executed based on the market's movement and the speaker's awareness of the opportunity.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggergold price drops significantly
Target / exitgold price recovers to a certain level
Invalidation / stopgold price continues to decline beyond expected levels
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market continues to decline
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected market volatility
Trade idea
ORCL short straddle
The speaker sold the 280 puts and 275 puts in Oracle, indicating a short straddle strategy. This suggests a belief in low volatility, as the strategy profits from a range-bound market. The speaker's action implies a short-term trade with a focus on market volatility, but the exact entry, target, and invalidation levels are not specified.
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Strategyshort straddle
Assetequity
Expirationunknown
Time horizonunknown
Entry / triggermarket volatility
Target / exitunknown
Invalidation / stopunknown
Speakerunknown
Risks- volatility increase
- market movement beyond expected range
Trade idea
NASDAQ range trading
The speaker believes the market is entering a phase of choppy trading with a narrow range between 7500 and 6900. They expect rallies to be met with selling, and the market is likely to stay within this range. Traders should consider shorting rallies that approach the upper end of the range, with a stop at the lower end of the range.
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Strategyrange trading
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket rallies to 7500 or higher
Target / exit7500
Invalidation / stopBreak below 6900
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market may break below the lower range
- Unexpected macroeconomic events could disrupt the range
Trade idea
SPACEX range trading
The speaker suggests that SpaceX stock may test or fall below its IPO price of 135, indicating potential short-term volatility. The trade idea is based on the expectation of downward pressure due to market conditions and the stock's recent performance. The speaker advises caution after any potential decline, suggesting a short-term range trading strategy.
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Strategyrange trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice testing or breaking below the IPO price of 135
Target / exit135
Invalidation / stopPrice rising above 165 or significant positive news
SpeakerMr. Sheridan
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected positive news
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Crude Oil selling puts
The speaker has been selling puts on crude oil, indicating a short bias. They note that crude has been volatile and that the market has been slightly bullish. The speaker suggests that selling puts is a better strategy than selling calls in this environment, as they believe the market is unlikely to move significantly higher. The speaker also mentions that the market has been up every day, suggesting a potential for a pullback.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term to medium-term
Entry / triggermarket is in a range-bound or slightly bullish trend
Target / exitmarket reverts to a lower range or shows signs of weakness
Invalidation / stopmarket breaks above a key resistance level or shows strong bullish momentum
SpeakerScott
Risks- market moves against the short position
- volatility increases beyond expected levels
Trade idea
GC short puts
The speaker is short puts in gold (GC) at the 3500 strike price, having sold them a couple of days ago at around 19.5-20 bucks. The trade idea is based on the belief that gold will not trade above 3500, and the speaker is looking to profit from the premium collected. The strategy is considered a short-term trade, with the potential for profit if the price of gold remains below the strike price. The risk is that if gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated, and the speaker may have to buy back the puts at a higher price.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerSold puts at about 19.5-20 bucks
Target / exitProfit from the put selling strategy
Invalidation / stopIf gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- If gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated and the speaker may have to buy back the puts at a higher price.
Trade idea
Nike put selling
The speaker suggests selling the 38 puts on Nike, assuming the stock is priced around $41.50. The expected move is estimated at $3.50, and the trade is considered a marginal play due to the limited premium. The speaker also mentions considering a vertical spread by buying the 41 call and selling the 42.5 call as an alternative strategy. The trade is based on the assumption that Nike is undervalued and the market is bullish, making it a short-term strangle strategy.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
Expirationweekly
Time horizon2 days
Entry / triggerstock price at $41.50
Target / exit38 strike price
Invalidation / stopif the stock price drops below $38, the trade is invalid
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Potential loss if the stock price drops significantly
- Limited premium may not justify the risk
- Market volatility could affect the trade outcome
Trade idea
Nvidia Strangles
The speaker shorted strangles and a ratio spread call, expecting the stock to move within the expected range. However, the stock did not move significantly, leading to a loss on the premium sold. The thesis was based on the assumption that the stock would move within the expected range, but the actual movement was minimal, resulting in a non-event. The strategy was to capitalize on the expected move, but the lack of movement invalidated the trade.
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StrategyStrangles
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the expected move is higher than the current price movement
Target / exitUncertain, based on market movement
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly beyond the expected move
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect expected move prediction
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SPX put position
the speaker believes the move will be outside of the expected move
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Strategyput position
Assetindex
Entry / triggerif the expected move is 20 bucks
Target / exitmove outside of the expected move
SpeakerTom
Risks- the move could be within the expected range
Trade idea
PALANTEER call spread
the move has already happened
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
Expiration135
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility is high
Target / exit146
Invalidation / stopafter an up move
SpeakerTom
Risks- volatility is low
- market direction is not as expected
Trade idea
yen put selling
market is expected to stay within range
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Strategyput selling
Assetcurrency
ExpirationOctober
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket within range
Target / exitcredit pop of 25%
Invalidation / stopmarket outside range
SpeakerScott
Risks- market moves outside range
- orders not filled
Trade idea
SPAC strangle
short strangle on SpaceX with 41% expected move
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Entry / triggerstock trading at $41
Target / exit41%
Speakerunknown
Trade idea
Trade idea short Microsoft after a 100 point rally in two days
Microsoft is a good risk-reward opportunity to the downside
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Strategyshort Microsoft after a 100 point rally in two days
Entry / triggerafter a 100 point rally in two days
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea
Oil shorting during a rapid upward move
The speaker discusses their experience of shorting oil during a rapid upward move, where they sold at a lower price after the price retraced. The strategy involves identifying a rapid upward move and selling at a lower price after the price retraces. The entry condition is a rapid upward move, and the target is to sell at a lower price after the price retraces. The stop or invalidation is if the price continues to rise without retracing. The time horizon is short-term.
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Strategyshorting during a rapid upward move
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerDuring a rapid upward move in oil prices
Target / exitSell at a lower price after the price retraces
Invalidation / stopIf the price continues to rise without retracing
SpeakerBarry
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect timing of the trade
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CL selling rallies
The speaker suggests selling rallies in the oil market, particularly using strangles on the CL contract. The idea is based on the belief that oil prices can move rapidly, and the speaker has previously sold premium on the CL contract, expecting the market to revert to a range. The strategy involves taking advantage of the volatility and the liquidity of the oil market, with a focus on short-term price movements.
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Strategyselling rallies
Assetfutures
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen oil prices are rising rapidly
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopif oil prices continue to rise beyond the initial range
SpeakerBarry
Risks- Market can continue to rise, leading to losses
- Liquidity issues in the options market
- Volatility can lead to unexpected price swings
Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
The speaker expresses a belief that silver is overvalued at its current price level, suggesting a short position as a potential trade. They acknowledge that their previous positions in silver were large and painful, indicating a need for caution. The thesis is based on the idea that price extremes can signal potential reversals, and the speaker is looking for a reversal to $84 as a target.
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Strategyshorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price above $120
Target / exitsilver price reverts to $84
Invalidation / stopsilver price continues to rise above $130
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected demand spikes
- Incorrect price reversal
Trade idea
MCL straddle/strangle
The trader is short a straddle on micro CL futures at 71 strike, which expires March 17th. If the market remains within a range, the trader can profit from time decay. If the market moves significantly, the trader may need to roll the position to April, selling a put at a higher strike (e.g., 100) to hedge against potential assignment. This strategy is based on the expectation that the market will not move significantly, allowing the trader to profit from the decay of the options.
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Strategystraddle/strangle
Assetfutures
ExpirationMarch 17th
Time horizonUntil expiration
Entry / triggerMarket remains within a range
Target / exitProfit from time decay and potential assignment
Invalidation / stopMarket moves significantly beyond the range
SpeakerEric
Structure / legs- short put at 71 strike
- short call at 71 strike
- short put at 100 strike (April expiration)
Risks- Assignment if the market moves significantly
- Time decay may not be sufficient for profit
Trade idea
SLV scalping
The speaker discusses selling SLV at 108 and 109, then scalping the position as the price dropped. This indicates a short-term scalping strategy where the trader sells at a higher price and buys back at a lower price to profit from the price decline. The thesis is based on the trader's ability to identify short-term price movements and execute trades quickly to capitalize on the price difference.
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Strategyscalping
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice above a certain level
Target / exitPrice below the entry level
Invalidation / stopPrice above the entry level
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Price could move against the trade
- Slippage in execution
- Market volatility
Trade idea
NASDAQ sell-off
The speaker mentions a 2% sell-off in the NASDAQ and suggests that it's too early to start buying, implying a short-term bearish outlook. However, the speaker also notes that the market is not at a record low and that there are cracks in the floorboards, indicating potential for further declines. The speaker's uncertainty about the market's direction is reflected in the suggestion that it's too early to buy, suggesting a cautious approach to shorting.
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Strategysell-off
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / trigger2% sell-off in the NASDAQ
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Volatility
Trade idea
CLX iron condor
The speaker is short an iron condor on Clorox (CLX) and is concerned about the potential for early exercise of out-of-the-money calls due to an upcoming dividend. The discussion clarifies that early exercise of out-of-the-money options is not typically done for dividend purposes, and the email was a general alert to all holders of options on Clorox with an upcoming dividend. The speaker is advised that there is no risk of assignment for out-of-the-money options, and the email was sent as a precautionary measure.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdividend announcement
Invalidation / stopdividend date
SpeakerTJ
Risks- Dividend risk
- Market volatility
- Early exercise risk
Trade idea
NFLX Put Selling
The speaker suggests selling puts on Netflix (NFLX) at a strike price of 455-465, expecting the stock to trade above the strike price. The rationale is that Netflix has underperformed compared to other stocks, and the speaker believes the stock may not move significantly. The trade is considered a short-term play, with the expectation that the stock will not drop below the strike price. The risk is that the stock could fall below the strike price, resulting in a loss.
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StrategyPut Selling
AssetEquity
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price at 86
Target / exitStock price above 455
Invalidation / stopStock price below 455
SpeakerLoki
Structure / legs- Put with strike price 455
- Put with strike price 465
Risks- Stock price could fall below the strike price
- Market volatility could impact the trade
Trade idea
NASDAQ shorting the NASDAQ index
The speaker is selling the NASDAQ index, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. The decision is based on the current market conditions and the speaker's assessment of the market's direction. The trade idea is to capitalize on a potential decline in the index, with the risk of being wrong if the market moves against the short position.
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Strategyshorting the NASDAQ index
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent market conditions
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions that suggest a reversal or significant change in trend
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
VIX Buy VIX futures and sell out-of-the-money calls on VIX
The speaker suggests a trade involving buying VIX futures and selling out-of-the-money calls on VIX, which is described as an expensive trade due to the lack of margin relief on either side. The trade is considered capital-intensive and not easy to make, but it is presented as an intelligent way to put the trade.
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StrategyBuy VIX futures and sell out-of-the-money calls on VIX
AssetVolatility Index
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonNot specified
Entry / triggerVolatility under $19
Target / exitNot specified
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- Buy VIX futures
- Sell out-of-the-money calls on VIX
Risks- High capital requirement
- Complex execution
- Potential for significant losses if the market moves against the trade
Trade idea
Trade idea sell into strength
The speaker suggests that the current market conditions, characterized by a lack of downticks and orderly upward movement, may present an opportunity to short at these prices. The thesis is based on the idea that the market's resilience could lead to a sharp decline later in the week due to 'sell into strength.' The proposed action is to short the market, with the expectation that the upward momentum will reverse, leading to a decline. The risks include the possibility of continued upward movement or a reversal that does not materialize as predicted.
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Strategysell into strength
Time horizonweek
Entry / triggercurrent price levels
Target / exitsharp decline by the end of the week
Invalidation / stopupward movement or reversal
SpeakerTom Safon
Risks- Market continues to move upward
- Unexpected macroeconomic events
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Bonds Shorting June 112 puts
The speaker is short June 112 puts on bonds, having sold them last week when bonds were lower. The rationale is based on the current market conditions and the speaker's assessment of bond prices. The trade idea is to profit from a potential rise in bond prices, with the puts acting as a hedge against downward movement.
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StrategyShorting June 112 puts
AssetFixed Income
ExpirationJune
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerBonds were four or five ticks lower than current levels
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Interest rate changes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nasdaq shorting the Nasdaq index
The speaker is shorting the Nasdaq index, believing it will fall from higher prices. This is based on the index's recent performance, which has seen a significant drop after a strong gain on the previous Friday. The speaker acknowledges the risk involved in this trade, as it has been a brutal week for short sellers.
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Strategyshorting the Nasdaq index
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNasdaq is at higher prices
Target / exitNasdaq falls from higher prices
Invalidation / stopNasdaq continues to rise
SpeakerS0058
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NVIDIA shorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
The speaker mentions that NVIDIA has dropped $6 and expresses a desire for it to rise. This indicates a short-term trade idea where the speaker is shorting NVIDIA, expecting a reversal or a rise in price. The trade is based on the speaker's personal sentiment and the recent price movement of the stock.
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Strategyshorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNVIDIA down $6
Target / exitNVIDIA higher
Invalidation / stopNVIDIA continues to decline
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market reversal
- Unexpected news affecting the stock
Trade idea
GLD Put selling
The speaker sold puts in GLD (Gold ETF) earlier when gold was down, and now it's up $69, indicating a potential reversal. The trade idea is to capitalize on the upward movement by selling puts, expecting the price to remain above the strike price. The strategy involves leveraging the increased volatility around the Fed meeting, with the expectation that gold will continue its upward trend.
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StrategyPut selling
AssetETF
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerGold price below a certain level
Target / exitPrice movement upwards
Invalidation / stopSignificant downward movement or market reversal
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility contraction
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CL put selling
The speaker sold 64 puts on crude oil (CL) for $1.71, indicating a bearish outlook. The rationale is that crude oil prices had dropped back down, suggesting a potential for further declines. The trade idea is to profit from the put sale if the price continues to fall. The invalidation level is if crude oil prices rise significantly, which would reduce the value of the put options.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerCrude oil price drops
Target / exitProfit from the put sale
Invalidation / stopIf crude oil price rises significantly
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- If crude oil prices rise, the value of the put options will decrease, leading to potential losses.
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the trade.
Trade idea
CL strangles
The speaker suggests that crude oil is a range-bound market with high implied volatility, making it suitable for short strangles or iron condors. By selling strangles at 70 and 150, traders can collect premium while profiting from the price range. The strategy relies on the market staying within the defined range, and the high implied volatility supports the potential for significant premium collection.
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Strategystrangles
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice within the range of 80 to 110
Target / exitprofit from the wide price range and high implied volatility
Invalidation / stopprice breaking out of the range or significant volatility drop
SpeakerTom
Risks- Price breaking out of the range
- Volatility drop
- Market liquidity issues
Trade idea
VIX volatility trading
The speaker suggests that if the VIX is above its long-term average and the market does not confirm macro narratives, it may be a good time to consider shorting the VIX. The rationale is that the VIX is a measure of fear, and if the market is not confirming macro narratives, it may indicate that the current level of fear is not justified. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of reducing delta before getting long vol, suggesting that shorting the VIX could be a more prudent approach in this scenario.
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Strategyvolatility trading
Assetvolatility
Time horizonShort-term (days to weeks)
Entry / triggerIf the VIX is above its long-term average and the market does not confirm macro narratives
Target / exitThe VIX returning to its long-term average
Invalidation / stopIf the VIX continues to rise above the long-term average
SpeakerMarket Talk
Risks- The VIX could continue to rise above the long-term average
- Market conditions could change rapidly
- The VIX is not a guaranteed predictor of future market movements
Trade idea
Trade idea shorting near market tops
The speaker is shorting certain stocks like silver and micron, believing they are near market tops. The speaker emphasizes that they are not at a price extreme and prefer to short near market tops when they believe the market is close to those extremes. The speaker also mentions that they are not taking long positions due to the current market conditions.
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Strategyshorting near market tops
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggernear market tops
Invalidation / stopmarket bottoms or significant price movement
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market could move against the short position
- Volatility could increase unexpectedly
- The speaker's assessment of market tops may be incorrect
Trade idea
Oil short put
The speaker discusses their short put position on oil, noting that the market has moved against their position. They mention covering a small portion of the position at $880 to reduce losses, indicating a strategy of limiting downside risk. The speaker acknowledges that the position was initially a disaster but has since been adjusted to cut losses by 60%.
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Strategyshort put
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket movement against the short position
Target / exitPrice level of $880
Invalidation / stopPrice reaching $1250
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected price movements
Trade idea
SPX ratio spread
The speaker executed a ratio spread on the S&P 500 (SPX) by shorting 100 calls and longing 200 puts, with an entry at 72. The target was set at 67, with a stop at 72. The strategy was based on the expectation of a price decline, which was supported by the speaker's observation of the market's lower levels. The trade was adjusted by adding to the position, indicating a belief in the continued downward trend.
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Strategyratio spread
Assetindex
Expiration2023-08-18
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice below 72
Target / exitprice below 67
Invalidation / stopprice above 72
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Structure / legs- short 100 calls
- long 200 puts
Risks- Price could move against the short position
- Volatility could increase the risk of losses
Trade idea
SPCE put ratio spread
The speaker suggests selling 100 puts and buying 105 puts to create a put ratio spread, which synthetically shorts the stock. The strategy is based on the belief that the stock may drop significantly, potentially by a third, by August. The speaker acknowledges the risk of this strategy, noting that it is a tall order and that the market may have other issues if the stock drops significantly.
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Strategyput ratio spread
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonAugust
Entry / triggerstock price below IPO price
Target / exitstock price drops by a third by August
Invalidation / stopif the stock price does not drop by a third by August
SpeakerScott
Risks- Significant potential loss if the stock price does not drop as expected
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the strategy
- The strategy is speculative and not suitable for all investors
Trade idea
PLTR call spread
The speaker is selling a call spread on PLTR, which has had a significant rally. The strategy is based on the belief that the stock may not continue its upward trend, and the call spread is expected to profit from the premium. The speaker acknowledges the risk of the stock continuing to rise due to factors like AI-related hype, but believes the position is still viable given the current market conditions.
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Strategycall spread
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading around $134
Target / exit310 credit
Invalidation / stopif the stock rallies significantly or if the market moves against the position
SpeakerScott
Risks- significant rally in the stock
- market volatility
- earnings announcements
Trade idea
AAPL iron condor
The speaker suggests rolling the call spread to August 320-330 and adjusting the put spread to maintain a small credit. The reasoning is that the current price is slightly below the strike price, and rolling the position to a later expiration could provide more time for the trade to work out. The risks include potential losses if the price moves significantly against the position.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly 24th
Time horizontwo weeks
Entry / triggercurrent price at 311
Target / exitsmall credit
Invalidation / stopif price moves significantly against the position
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Structure / legs- call spread: 300-310
- put spread: (not specified)
Risks- Price movement against the position
- Market volatility
- Time decay
Trade idea
AAPL call spread
The speaker suggests rolling a call spread to August 320 and 330 as a strategy when Apple's price is down to the 310 level. This is a short-term strategy that involves a small credit and rolling the position to August. The idea is to capitalize on the downward movement of Apple's price while managing risk through the spread.
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerApple's price is down to the 310 level
Target / exitRoll the call spread to August 320 and 330
Invalidation / stopIf the price moves significantly against the short call spread
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
- The spread may not perform as expected if the price does not move in the anticipated direction
Trade idea
S&P 500 shorting with partial coverage
The speaker is shorting the S&P 500, having covered 10% of their position. This suggests a bearish outlook on the index, with a strategy of partial coverage to manage risk. The decision to cover part of the position indicates a cautious approach to potential market movements.
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Strategyshorting with partial coverage
Assetindex
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerMarket conditions indicate a potential decline
Target / exitNot explicitly stated, but partial coverage was executed
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Unforeseen economic events
Trade idea
NASDAQ short puts
The speaker is short puts on NASDAQ, covering them when the market is up. This suggests a strategy of profiting from a potential decline in the underlying asset, with the expectation that the market will not rise significantly. The speaker also mentions covering 10% of their position, indicating a partial hedge or risk management approach.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is up
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the short position
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market moves against the short position
- Liquidity issues in options markets
- Time decay may reduce the value of the short position
Trade idea
S&P 500 gap down
The speaker mentions that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened lower, with the S&P down 40-65 points. The speaker bought in at 7127.5 and sold back out, indicating a short-term trading strategy based on the gap down. The thesis is that markets can open lower due to global factors, and traders can capitalize on this by shorting the index if the downward trend continues.
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Strategygap down
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term, within a few trading sessions
Entry / triggerMarket gaps down significantly during Asian trading hours
Target / exitPotential reversal or continuation of the downward trend
Invalidation / stopIf the market reverses upward or shows signs of strength
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Microsoft Shorting Microsoft with a cover at the opening
The speaker sold Microsoft and covered it at the opening price, indicating a short position. The trade was considered a 'nice trade' based on the price movement and execution. The speaker's action suggests a short-term strategy with a focus on the opening price as the entry point.
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StrategyShorting Microsoft with a cover at the opening
AssetEquity
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerOpening price
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerS0001
Risks- Price movement against the short position
- Execution risk at the opening
Trade idea
Microsoft sell on rallies
The speaker is bearish on Microsoft at the current level, having been bearish at 430 and now at 420. The speaker suggests selling on rallies, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The rationale is that the stock has gotten ahead of itself, and the speaker believes it is overvalued. The invalidation level is a continued rise above 430, which would suggest the stock is not overvalued and the bearish thesis is incorrect.
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Strategysell on rallies
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice rallies to 430 or higher
Target / exitprice reverts to 420 or lower
Invalidation / stopprice continues to rise above 430
SpeakerJay
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected positive news
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nasdaq Future Sell a Nasdaq future based on a perceived market downturn
The speaker's daughter was taught to sell a Nasdaq future based on a perceived market downturn. The trade was intended to profit from a decline in the index, but the market continued to rise, leading to a loss. This highlights the importance of market timing and the risks associated with shorting during a bullish trend.
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StrategySell a Nasdaq future based on a perceived market downturn
AssetFutures
Time horizonShort-term, with a focus on immediate market movements
Entry / triggerMarket at a perceived peak, with signs of a potential downturn
Target / exitProfit from a decline in the Nasdaq index
Invalidation / stopMarket continues to rise, invalidating the short position
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market continues to rise
- Lack of stop orders
- Emotional decision-making
Trade idea
CAR bull call spread with put purchase
The trader executed a bull call spread and purchased puts to capitalize on a short squeeze in CAR. The strategy aimed to profit from the upward movement of the stock, which was expected to reach a peak due to the short squeeze. The trader missed the peak by 2 hours but still captured gains on both sides of the squeeze. The strategy was based on the expectation of a rapid price increase due to the short squeeze, which is a common phenomenon in markets with significant short positions.
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Strategybull call spread with put purchase
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort squeeze
Target / exitpeak of short squeeze
Invalidation / stopfailure to reach peak or reversal in trend
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- bull call spread
- put purchase
Risks- Failure to reach the peak
- Market reversal
- Slippage in execution
Trade idea
AMD divergence
The speaker notes that AMD was a significant mover the previous day but was down this morning. This divergence from the broader market trend could indicate a potential short-term reversal or consolidation. The speaker is looking for such divergences to identify trading opportunities. The thesis is based on the idea that divergences can signal underlying market sentiment shifts, and the speaker is monitoring these for potential trades.
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Strategydivergence
Assetstock
Time horizonShort-term (1-3 days)
Entry / triggerIf AMD shows a strong divergence from the overall market trend
Target / exitPotential short-term reversal or consolidation
Invalidation / stopIf AMD continues to move in line with the broader market
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- False signals
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker believes that silver is overvalued and recommends shorting it, citing that the price has dropped from 9575 to 9425. The speaker has been shorting silver since Sunday night, scalping it without touching their core position, and has not made a losing trade. However, their core position has been significantly impacted. The speaker emphasizes that while shorting can be profitable, it requires careful execution and that the market may be overblown.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerOvervaluation of silver
Target / exitPrice drop to 9425 or lower
Invalidation / stopPrice increase above 9575
SpeakerScott
Risks- Price increase above 9575
- Market volatility
- Execution risk in scalping strategy
Trade idea
VIX selling premium into rich volatility
The speaker prefers selling premium into rich volatility, as it allows traders to get paid for taking risk. This strategy is more effective when volatility is high, as it provides a better risk-reward profile. The speaker expresses caution about low volume stocks during earnings season, suggesting that the strategy should be applied with care in such environments.
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Strategyselling premium into rich volatility
Assetvolatility_index
Expirationnear-term
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility is high
Target / exitvolatility reverts to lower levels
Invalidation / stopvolatility continues to rise
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- short straddle
- short strangle
Risks- volatility continues to rise
- earnings announcements may cause unexpected price movements
- low volume stocks may not provide sufficient liquidity for effective premium selling
Trade idea
Trade idea volatility trading
During midterm election years, the S&P 500 historically experiences a drawdown of around 17% to 19.4%. The speaker suggests selling out-of-the-money puts as a way to capitalize on increased volatility and premium capture. This strategy allows for exposure to market movements without the need to own the underlying asset. The speaker emphasizes that this approach is safer than buying long shares and involves taking small, incremental steps to manage risk. The strategy is suitable for investors comfortable with contrarian strategies and willing to take calculated risks.
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Strategyvolatility trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket drawdown during midterm election years
Target / exitvolatility increase and premium capture
Invalidation / stopmarket rally or failure to capture volatility
SpeakerIsile
Risks- Market rally
- Failure to capture volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
MICRON short calls
The speaker is short calls on Micron, expecting the stock to rally but not exceed $555. The trade is based on the belief that the stock has already rallied significantly and that further gains are unlikely. The speaker acknowledges the risk of being 'killed' but remains confident in the trade despite past losses.
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Strategyshort calls
Assetequity
Expiration3 days
Time horizon3 days
Entry / triggerMicron earnings after close
Target / exitstrike price of $555
Invalidation / stopif the stock rallies above $555
SpeakerThe speaker
Structure / legs- 3-day calls at $555 strike
- two and a half times the expected move
Risks- The stock could rally beyond the expected move
- Earnings could surprise positively, leading to higher prices
- Market volatility could impact the trade
Trade idea
SMH broken wing butterfly
The speaker is considering a broken wing butterfly trade on SMH, which is at its highs. The trade involves buying the 700, 710, and 730 strikes for a credit. The speaker notes that the trade has a high probability of profit (87%) and a high implied volatility ratio (IVR) of 93 due to semiconductor stocks. However, the speaker acknowledges that the trade has a high risk-reward ratio, with a potential risk of $930 and a potential reward of $1070. The speaker is cautious about entering the trade due to the stock's current position and the potential for a pullback.
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Strategybroken wing butterfly
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock at its highs
Target / exitcredit for a few pennies more than the initial trade
Invalidation / stopif the stock pulls back significantly
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- The stock could pull back significantly, reducing the trade's profitability.
- The trade has a high risk-reward ratio, which could lead to significant losses if the stock moves against the trade.
Trade idea
MICRON scalping
Scalping Micron (MICRON) is viable if the daily expected move is $30. A target of $3 (10% of the expected move) is reasonable. The trade should be exited if the move exceeds expectations or if the market moves against the position. This approach leverages tight market conditions and high liquidity, with no commissions to enhance profitability.
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Strategyscalping
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term (minutes to hours)
Entry / triggerDaily expected move is $30
Target / exit$3
Invalidation / stopIf the daily expected move is exceeded or the trade goes against the expected direction
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Execution risk
- Liquidity risk after hours
Trade idea
SPACEX broken-wing butterfly
The broken-wing butterfly strategy was executed with a 25 cent credit, targeting a $18 expected move. The trade is designed to profit from a range-bound stock, with the 235 strike as the maximum profit point. The trade was adjusted for a $10 drop in stock price, and the speaker suggests further adjustments to the strike prices based on market conditions.
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Strategybroken-wing butterfly
Assetequity
Expirationweekly
Time horizonshort-term (1-2 days)
Entry / triggerstock price at 215
Target / exit235
Invalidation / stopstock price moves beyond expected range of $18
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility contraction
- Unexpected price movement beyond expected range
- Margin requirements
Trade idea
ZN Fade the initial move following a Fed announcement
The speaker suggests selling ZN (10-year Treasury Notes) if bonds move higher on a Fed announcement, as they have been trending higher. The speaker notes that fading the initial spike has not been very successful, but waiting a day or so and then fading the spike has been more effective. The speaker also mentions that they prefer ZN over ZB for shorting due to its lower volatility. The trade is intended to be a quick profit trade, not a long-term holding.
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StrategyFade the initial move following a Fed announcement
AssetFutures
Time horizonShort-term (scalp trade)
Entry / triggerIf bonds move higher on a Fed announcement, sell ZN
Target / exit10 ticks
Invalidation / stopIf the move continues beyond the initial spike
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- The initial move may continue beyond the expected range
- Market volatility may affect the trade outcome