Trade idea
ORCL puts
short puts can be profitable if the stock rises
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Strategyputs
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerOracle's stock price is lower than the strike price
Target / exitprofit from the stock rising
Invalidation / stopif the stock falls below the strike price
Speakerunknown
Risks- if the stock falls below the strike price
Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Silver is currently at 10.50, and the speaker suggests that the price movement is 'ridiculous,' indicating a potential overcorrection. The speaker implies that the price may drop to a lower level, making a short position a viable strategy. The speaker also mentions that there is no upper limit circuit breaker in the front month, suggesting that the market may continue to move in the short-term direction. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the price will revert to a more reasonable level.
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Strategyshorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver is at 10.50
Target / exitsilver drops to a lower level
Invalidation / stopsilver continues to rise
SpeakerTom
Risks- silver could continue to rise
- market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker mentions that silver has experienced a significant move upwards, reaching $10.50, and expresses a desire for it to drop to $80. This indicates a short-term bearish bias. The speaker also references a previous ratio calculation, suggesting that the current price may be overvalued relative to gold. The trade idea is to short silver with a target at $80, given the potential for a correction based on the gold-to-silver ratio.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSilver price is above $10.50
Target / exitSilver price drops to $80
Invalidation / stopIf silver price rises above $110
Speakerunknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The trade may be invalidated if silver continues to rise above $110.
- The short-term nature of the trade requires quick execution and monitoring.
Trade idea
SOLANA buying on a perceived dip
The speaker bought Solana last night after it dipped to a level they considered cheap. They believed the price was undervalued and decided to take a long position. However, the price continued to fall, leading to a loss on the initial trade. The speaker's rationale was based on their perception of the asset's value rather than fundamental or technical analysis.
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Strategybuying on a perceived dip
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice dipped to a level considered cheap by the speaker
Invalidation / stopPrice continued to fall below the entry point
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Price continued to fall below the entry point
- Market volatility could lead to further losses
Trade idea
SPX contrarian
The market is currently in a phase of rapid upward movement, with significant volatility. The speaker suggests that the next downturn could be severe, potentially leading to a 2,000-point drop in the NASDAQ. This indicates a potential overbought condition, making a short position a viable contrarian strategy. The VIX levels suggest heightened uncertainty, supporting the idea that a correction is likely.
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Strategycontrarian
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is overbought and shows signs of a potential correction
Target / exit2,000 points down
Invalidation / stopIf the market continues to move upward without correction
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market may continue to move upward
- Volatility could lead to unexpected price swings
Trade idea
SPCE sell the news
The speaker believes that SpaceX is not priced to perfection and that there is still room for the stock to trade below its current price. The speaker suggests that the stock may trade at 135, which is below the current price of 220, indicating a potential short-term opportunity. The speaker also mentions that the market's reaction to news can be random, and that the stock may trade lower if the fundamentals do not support the current price.
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Strategysell the news
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the stock trades under the IPO price
Target / exit135
Invalidation / stopif the stock trades above 135
SpeakerJohn
Risks- Market volatility
- unexpected news
- change in fundamentals
Trade idea
Natty Gas Put Vertical Spread
The speaker suggests selling a put vertical spread for Natty Gas, expecting a price increase. The trade has a limited risk and uses minimal buying power. The speaker acknowledges that the trade may be affected by market movements and advises acting quickly if the trade is not executed.
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StrategyPut Vertical Spread
AssetEquity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerSell the put vertical spread for Natty Gas
Target / exitA 66-point pop in the stock price
Invalidation / stopIf the stock price rises significantly, the trade may be worse
SpeakerJohn
Risks- Market risk
- Limited upside potential
- Execution risk
Trade idea
BABA call spread
The trade involves selling July 10 puts and the 120125 call spread on Alibaba (BABA), which is a bullish play with a delta of 10. This is equivalent to being long 10 shares of stock. The trade is considered a straight bullish play and has a target of 520. The strategy is adjusted by moving the put down to the 105 puts and the call spread to 1520, reducing risk while maintaining the bullish bias. The trade is considered a good opportunity due to the market conditions and the potential for profit.
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Strategycall spread
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket price at mid-point
Target / exit520
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the bullish bias
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- July 10 puts
- July 120125 calls
Risks- market moves against the bullish bias
- volatility
- liquidity
Trade idea
MOO Shorting a stock that has experienced a significant upward move
The speaker shorted MOO after it had experienced a significant upward move, expecting a correction. The rationale is based on the belief that such rapid gains are unsustainable and the market may correct. The risk is that the stock could continue to rise, leading to a loss.
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StrategyShorting a stock that has experienced a significant upward move
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock has moved significantly upward in a short period
Target / exitPotential profit from the stock's downward correction
Invalidation / stopLoss if the stock continues to rise
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market continuation in the upward direction
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected news affecting the stock
Trade idea
SOLANA buying dips
The speaker mentions buying Solana when it dropped to 126, considering it cheap, and later it traded at 76. This suggests a strategy of buying dips in the market, assuming the price will rebound to previous levels. The speaker's actions indicate a belief in the potential for a rebound, even though the price has since dropped further.
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Strategybuying dips
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen price dips below a certain level
Target / exitprice rebound to previous levels
Invalidation / stopif price continues to decline below the support level
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further price declines
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
6E strangle
The euro is considered the best currency for a strangle due to its liquid markets and the speaker's personal position as a long holder. The speaker is short puts in the yen and suggests that the euro's market is more favorable for options trading compared to the British pound, which has less liquid options markets. The speaker believes the euro will rally to 1.36 and potentially higher, with a stop-loss at 1.10.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcurrency
ExpirationMay
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket conditions suggest a potential rally in the euro
Target / exit1.36 and 1.45, with 1.50 as an ideal target
Invalidation / stop1.10 as a stop-loss level
SpeakerDave
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues in the British pound options
- Failure to meet the target price
Trade idea
WeBull scalping
The speaker discusses their personal experience with WeBull, noting that they bought shares at $5.90 or $6 and scalped a 50-cent profit. They suggest that the risk-reward at current levels is favorable, and they might consider buying again after the show. The speaker also mentions that they have a history of buying Robinhood and other brokerage stocks, indicating a potential bullish outlook on the sector.
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Strategyscalping
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket cap at $2.52 billion, 52-week low at $4.77
Target / exit50 cents profit
Invalidation / stopMarket cap decline below $2.52 billion
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further decline in stock price
- Uncertainty in economic conditions
Trade idea
gold buying on a perceived bottom
The speaker believes gold has made a bottom and is long gold, indicating a bullish outlook on the commodity. This is based on the observed market behavior and the speaker's assessment of the broader market conditions.
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Strategybuying on a perceived bottom
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerconfirmed bottoming action in gold
Invalidation / stopif gold continues to decline below the identified bottom
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Potential for continued decline if the bottoming action is not confirmed
- Market volatility due to external factors like crude oil prices
Trade idea
SPY naked calls
Selling naked calls in SPY can provide a pure short delta exposure, capturing potential downside if the market declines. This strategy is suitable for traders who expect a pullback or consolidation phase, with the risk of losing if the market rallies. The trade should be managed with clear profit-taking levels based on the trader's risk tolerance.
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Strategynaked calls
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket pullback or consolidation
Target / exitprofit from short-term volatility
Invalidation / stoploss if market rallies
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market rally can lead to losses
- Volatility can increase the risk of large losses
Trade idea
SPOS shorting a rising asset
The speaker expressed dissatisfaction with a short position on SPOS, which had risen 75% before the show. This indicates a potential trade idea of shorting SPOS, with the expectation that the rally might not continue. The invalidation would be if the price continues to rise, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation of the trend.
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Strategyshorting a rising asset
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore the show started
Invalidation / stopmarket rally
SpeakerSpeaker 1
Risks- Market rally
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected news events
Trade idea
silver short strangle
The current short strangle position is not optimal due to the high risk-to-reward ratio. By re-centering the trade in April, the trader can capture additional premium and reduce the risk of a large adverse move. This strategy is effective when volatility remains high, as it allows for capturing the premium while reducing the risk of a large adverse move. The break-even point is around 92, and the trader needs to make back the lost money on the trade.
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Strategyshort strangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility remains high
Target / exitcapture additional premium
Invalidation / stopif silver does not rally
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- volatility may decrease
- silver may not rally
- transaction costs may eat into profits
Trade idea
Trade idea put spread
For a trader who has already engaged in a 'poor man's covered call' strategy, the next logical step is to consider selling a put spread slightly below the market. This strategy offers a similar risk profile while providing a defined risk and reward structure. It is suitable for traders who believe the stock will move upward but want to limit downside risk. The put spread allows for capturing premium while maintaining a directional bias.
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Strategyput spread
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the trader believes the stock will move upward
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the position
SpeakerScott
Risks- limited upside potential
- risk of assignment if the stock moves significantly against the position
Trade idea
TLT Put-selling
The speaker is selling June 85 puts for TLT, expecting the price to remain above the strike price. The trade is based on the assumption that the price of TLT will not fall below 85, allowing the seller to keep the premium. The speaker mentions that they sold puts in bonds yesterday and are applying the same strategy here.
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StrategyPut-selling
AssetETF
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerSell June 85 puts for about 90 cents
Target / exitHigher than 90 cents
Invalidation / stopIf the price of TLT drops below the strike price of 85
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- If the price of TLT falls below 85, the seller may be obligated to buy the underlying asset at the strike price, resulting in a loss.
Trade idea
Silver strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle on silver, which involves selling both a put and a call option at different strike prices. This strategy is suitable when the market is expected to remain within a certain range, allowing the seller to profit from the premium collected. The speaker also mentions that this trade is less aggressive compared to others, indicating a conservative approach.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is expected to remain within a certain range
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected
Invalidation / stopif the price moves outside the expected range
SpeakerVic
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movements
- slippage in illiquid markets
Trade idea
SPACEX volatility expansion
The speaker sold out-of-the-money calls and puts on SpaceX, anticipating a potential price decline or limited volatility expansion. The rationale is that a $10 move is considered a decent side move, and the speaker does not expect significant volatility expansion to the downside unless there is a big move. The trade idea is based on the expectation of a pullback or limited price movement, with the potential for profit if the price declines or remains stable.
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Strategyvolatility expansion
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket pullback or significant price movement
Target / exitprice decline of $10
Invalidation / stopprice increase or significant volatility expansion
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- out of the money calls
- out of the money puts
Risks- Market volatility could exceed expectations
- Price could move in the opposite direction
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
SPY straddle
The speaker suggests selling a straddle given the current market conditions, indicating a belief in a range-bound movement for the S&P 500. This strategy is typically used when the market is expected to trade within a narrow range, and the trader profits from the premium collected. The speaker's suggestion is based on the current market environment, which includes a meandering S&P and a relatively stable NASDAQ.
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Strategystraddle
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket conditions suggest a potential range-bound movement
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Risks- Market moves beyond the anticipated range
- Time decay of the options
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
BONDS sell puts on bonds
The speaker believes that rates are going higher, which would lead to lower bond prices. Therefore, selling puts on bonds is a strategy to profit from this expected decline. The speaker also mentions that bonds have underperformed other assets in the long term, suggesting a potential for further underperformance.
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Strategysell puts on bonds
Assetfixed_income
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the speaker believes rates are going higher, which implies bonds are going lower
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- market risk
- interest rate risk
- liquidity risk
Trade idea
ORCL call spread
The speaker proposed a call spread strategy for Oracle (ORCL) with a strike range of 280 to 320, expecting a price move of $25. The trade was structured to avoid naked shorting by using a spread, which reduces capital requirements and risk. The expected move was based on historical earnings performance and the current stock price of 211. The trade was considered a balanced approach to capitalize on potential price increases while limiting risk.
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerOracle stock at 211
Target / exit280
Invalidation / stopOracle stock price exceeding 320
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Oracle's stock price could exceed the upper strike price, leading to losses
- Market volatility could affect the expected price movement
- The trade requires careful monitoring to ensure the spread remains effective
Trade idea
IBIT Put Buy
The speaker suggests buying July 34 puts on IBIT, which are priced near $120. The put has a pop of 67%, with an IVR of 43 and an expected move of $3.70. The trade requires $1,400 in buying power, with 10% allocated to the trade. The speaker views this as a favorable risk-reward opportunity for a long Bitcoin position.
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StrategyPut Buy
AssetETF
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice near $120
Target / exitPop of 67%
Invalidation / stopPrice movement against the trade
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Price movement against the trade
- Volatility changes affecting the put's value
Trade idea
N/A premium selling
In high volatility environments, selling out-of-the-money puts is a viable strategy to capitalize on elevated premium prices. The speaker emphasizes that this approach is straightforward and leverages the mechanics of premium selling, which has been refined over years. The trade is managed at 50% or 21dt, and the strategy is most effective when the market is getting 'a little cheaper' (i.e., volatility is moderate but not extreme). This is a contrarian approach, suitable for markets with high volatility, where put prices are high and basis is low.
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Strategypremium selling
Assetoptions
ExpirationN/A
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility (VIX > 20)
Target / exitmanaged at 50% or 21dt
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions shift to low volatility or significant price movement
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market conditions shift to low volatility
- Significant price movement
- Liquidity issues in options markets
Trade idea
GME volatility shorting
The trader made money back by shorting volatility during the GME meme stock explosion in 2021. The strategy was based on the expectation of a reversion to the mean in both volatility and price. The trader noted that the market's reversion to the mean in volatility and price was a key factor in the success of the trade. The trader also emphasized the importance of gravity in the market, suggesting that market corrections are a natural part of the trading environment.
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Strategyvolatility shorting
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerVolatility reversion to the mean
Target / exitVolatility reversion to the mean
Invalidation / stopVolatility not reverting to the mean
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility not reverting to the mean
- Market not correcting as expected
Trade idea
SLV volatility premium
The speaker is short volatility in the silver ETF (SLV) due to the recent sharp move in the price of silver. They are short both puts and calls, expecting the market to rally back $3, which would bring them back to a flat position. The strategy relies on the market moving in a specific direction, and the risk is that the market could move against the short position, leading to losses. The speaker acknowledges the illiquidity of the SI options and prefers SLV for better liquidity and execution.
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Strategyvolatility premium
Assetcommodity
ExpirationMarch
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket rally back $3
Target / exitflat position
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the short position
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market moves against the short position
- volatility increases
- liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
IBM strangle
The speaker sold IBM puts and scalped them intraday, anticipating a potential downside move following a large pre-earnings announcement. The speaker noted that the stock had experienced a significant down move and that the downside risk had increased, leading to a shift in the pricing of puts. The trade was executed with the expectation of a short-term move, leveraging the volatility and market expectations around the earnings announcement.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly 22nd
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerpre-earnings announcement
Target / exitintraday scalp
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerTom
Risks- unexpected earnings results
- volatility spikes
- market sentiment shifts
Trade idea
TLT bearish option trade
If inflation remains sticky and long-term yields stay elevated, a bearish option trade in TLT is a valid strategy. This is because TLT is inversely correlated with bond yields, and a short position in TLT would benefit from rising yields. The speaker suggests that ZB or ZN are cleaner alternatives, but TLT is still a viable option for smaller positions.
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Strategybearish option trade
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerinflation remains sticky and long-term yields stay elevated
Invalidation / stopif inflation or yields move contrary to expectations
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected changes in inflation or yields
Trade idea
SPCE selling puts
The speaker suggests that if you are bullish on SpaceX, you should consider selling puts as it could be a better entry point compared to buying at higher prices. The speaker also notes that the stock has settled back to its IPO price of 135 and may continue to trade below this level.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf the stock is trading below the IPO price of 135
Target / exitA rally in the stock price
Invalidation / stopIf the stock continues to trade below the IPO price
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- The stock may continue to trade below the IPO price
- The speaker does not provide specific entry or exit points for trades
Trade idea
SKHY Options selling
The speaker suggests selling premium in SKHY due to high implied volatility. They recommend skewing the premium based on bullish or bearish sentiment. The speaker also mentions that SKHY has options available, but the exact strike prices and expiration dates are not specified.
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StrategyOptions selling
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerimplied volatility is high
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the position
Speakernot specified
Structure / legs- sell puts
- sell calls
- sell straddles
Risks- Implied volatility could decrease, leading to losses
- Market movements could result in significant losses if the position is not properly managed
Trade idea
null scalping futures
The speaker prefers scalping futures over options due to their simplicity and ease of execution. When scalping options, they typically use contracts with 45 days to expiration (DTE) as they prefer the next monthly cycle. Profit targets are set at 15-25% of the premium collected, reflecting a conservative approach to risk management. This strategy is suitable for traders seeking quick, low-risk returns in volatile markets.
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Strategyscalping futures
Assetnull
Expirationnull
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerscalping futures for short-term price movements
Target / exit15-25% of premium collected
Invalidation / stoploss if price moves against the trade
Speakernull
Risks- Market volatility can lead to rapid price changes
- Liquidity issues in less active contracts
Trade idea
gold-silver ratio ratio trade
The speaker suggests buying two gold futures contracts for every one silver futures contract, based on the current gold-silver ratio of approximately 47. The trade is intended to capitalize on the ratio moving towards a more balanced level. The speaker notes that the ratio may need adjustment based on market conditions, and that the trade should be monitored closely due to the high volatility of the micro contracts. The trade is considered a short-term opportunity, with the potential for significant movement in either direction.
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Strategyratio trade
Assetcommodities
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the gold-silver ratio is around 47
Target / exitto capitalize on the ratio moving towards a more balanced level
Invalidation / stopif the ratio moves significantly against the trade
Speakerthe dog pound
Risks- High volatility of micro contracts
- Potential for significant losses if the ratio moves against the trade
- Need for frequent adjustments based on market conditions
Trade idea
silver short-term bullish trade
The speaker discusses a poll indicating that 64% of respondents believe silver will make a new high, with the results coming in as 64% to 36%. This suggests a bullish sentiment towards silver, and the speaker implies that the market may be on the verge of a new high. The speaker's comment about the results being 'your 2/3 1/3' indicates a strong majority in favor of a new high. This could be interpreted as a bullish trade idea, with the entry condition being the confirmation of a new high in silver.
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Strategyshort-term bullish trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSilver making a new high
Target / exitNew high in silver
Invalidation / stopFailure to make a new high
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal
- Failure to reach the new high
- Volatility in silver prices
Trade idea
Trade idea sector-based allocation
The speaker suggests buying Solana and Bitcoin on a downtick, indicating a potential long-term bullish outlook for digital currencies. The strategy involves allocating a small percentage of the portfolio (1-3%) to these assets, with the rationale that they may be undervalued relative to other sectors. The speaker also mentions being over 10% in financial stocks, suggesting a sector-based allocation strategy.
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Strategysector-based allocation
Assetdigital_currency
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggeron a downtick in the digital currency market
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further price declines
- Limited exposure due to small allocation
Trade idea
Trade idea shorting futures
The speaker mentions selling futures on the Nasdaq at a level 100 points lower than the current price, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. The rationale is based on the belief that the Nasdaq may experience a pullback from recent highs. The invalidation point would be if the Nasdaq continues to rise, suggesting a potential reversal of the short position.
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Strategyshorting futures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerspecific price levels
Target / exit100 points lower in the Nasdaq
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions or price movements
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect price movement
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CL calendar spread
The current spread of $9 in crude oil is due to uncertainty in the front month, which is priced higher than the back month. While the spread may narrow, it is not guaranteed, and traders should be cautious about assuming mean reversion. The spread reflects market sentiment and physical deliverables, not arbitrage opportunities. Traders should consider the risk of further widening and the potential for the spread to remain wide.
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Strategycalendar spread
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWide spread due to uncertainty in front month
Target / exitPotential narrowing of the spread
Invalidation / stopSpread widening further
SpeakerScott
Risks- Spread widening further
- Market conditions changing
- Uncertainty in future delivery
Trade idea
ZFM6 micro futures trading
The speaker is currently trading the ZFM6 futures contract, which is a medium-term US Treasury note. They suggest that for another suitable future options instrument, micro crude (MCL) or micro ES (MES) could be considered. The speaker also notes that ZFM6 is a viable option for micro futures trading, but other instruments like ZN or ZB are recommended for longer-term bond trading.
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Strategymicro futures trading
Assetfutures
ExpirationZFM6
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermedium-term US Treasury notes
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerSolomon
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Correlation with existing positions
Trade idea
AMD rotation
The speaker suggests a rotation from tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia to AMD and Micron (MU). This rotation is based on the idea that certain stocks have outperformed others, and the market is shifting focus. The speaker also mentions that Micron was expected to trade down to 880 but instead traded back up to 1015, indicating a potential reversal or continued upward momentum. The trade idea is to go long on AMD and MU as part of this rotation strategy.
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Strategyrotation
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket rotation towards AMD
Target / exitNot specified
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market rotation can reverse quickly
- Earnings reports may impact stock performance
- Volatility can increase during earnings periods
Trade idea
Trade idea selling puts or going long on stocks that are oversold
The speaker suggests selling puts or going long on stocks that are oversold during a market move. They mention specific stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, or Micron as potential candidates, but emphasize that the decision should be based on the stock's current state rather than a specific trend. The speaker also notes that they avoid the trend game and prefer to focus on opportunities in oversold stocks. The thesis is that selling puts or going long on oversold stocks can be a viable strategy when the market is moving and the stock appears to be undervalued.
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Strategyselling puts or going long on stocks that are oversold
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstocks that are oversold on a move
Invalidation / stoptrend continues lower
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market continues lower
- Stock does not rebound
- Overtrading due to gut feelings
Trade idea
SPACEX selling puts
The speaker believes that the implied volatility of SpaceX is high, making out-of-the-money puts at $90 a good opportunity for selling puts. The speaker is not bullish on the stock but is long deltas, indicating a bullish stance on the underlying asset. The trade idea involves selling puts as a way to generate income, even though the speaker is not confident in the stock's long-term direction.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading below IPO price
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Potential for stock price to rise above strike price
- Implied volatility may decrease
- Market volatility could increase
Trade idea
SPX iron condor
The speaker suggests that iron condors on the SPX with zero DTE are only viable when placed just outside the expected move and managed early. The strategy involves taking profits up to 25% and is considered a last resort due to its marginal returns in bull markets.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetindex
Expirationzero DTE
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerjust outside the expected move
Target / exitmanage early with max 25% of profits
Invalidation / stopmarket moves beyond expected range
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Time decay
Trade idea
COINBASE put spread
The trade involves selling an August put spread in Coinbase, with strikes at 120 and 100, collecting a premium of $2. The trade is based on the expectation that Coinbase will remain below its year-to-date low of 145. The probability of profit is estimated at 90%, with the expected move being 32 points. The trade is considered favorable due to the risk-reward ratio and the inverse relationship between the strike width and the probability of profit.
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Strategyput spread
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerCoinbase is trading below its year-to-date low
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected
Invalidation / stopif Coinbase moves significantly higher
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- put spread with strikes at 120 and 100
- premium collected: $2
Risks- Significant price movement in Coinbase could result in losses.
- Volatility could affect the expected move and probability of profit.
Trade idea
JP Morgan sell out of the money puts
The speaker suggests that trading JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley around their earnings reports could be a use case for understanding how premiums expand and contract. The expected move is estimated to be around 3%, but the actual move could be between 4% and 6%. The speaker advises being one-dimensional and directional, suggesting selling out of the money puts if bullish on JP Morgan. The trade is considered risky due to the potential for a larger-than-expected move, which could lead to significant losses if the market moves against the trade.
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Strategysell out of the money puts
Assetstock
Expirationnext week
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore the opening on the 14th
Target / exit335
Invalidation / stopif the move exceeds 3% or if the earnings are significantly better or worse than expected
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Large unexpected move
- Earnings report surprises
- Volatility spikes
Trade idea
HOOD short strangle
The speaker has a short strangle in HOOD, which they believe is positioned around the expected price movement. They have been bullish on HOOD throughout the year and have been buying it whenever it dips into the 70s, which has worked for them. The trade idea is based on the expectation that the price will move within the expected range, allowing for profit from the strangle.
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Strategyshort strangle
Assetstock
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice movement within expected range
Target / exitProfit from price decline
Invalidation / stopPrice moves beyond expected range
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Price moves beyond expected range
- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CRUDE OIL put spread
The speaker discusses the impact of high volatility on options strategies, particularly for those who are short a put spread. The speaker explains that in a high volatility environment, the market may not move much in the short term, making it difficult for strategies that rely on directional movement. The speaker suggests that the market is pricing in the expectation of significant movement, which can delay actual price changes. This indicates that the speaker is cautioning traders about the risks of shorting options in a high volatility environment, as the market may not move as expected.
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Strategyput spread
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility environment
Target / exitno specific target mentioned
Invalidation / stopmarket movement or volatility decrease
SpeakerTom
Risks- market movement
- volatility decrease
- time decay
Trade idea
SPX put selling
The speaker sold puts on the S&P 500 (SPX) when it was at 41 and has since seen it rise to 66. They are continuing to sell more as the market moves higher, indicating a strategy of profiting from potential price declines during rallies. The speaker believes that rallies are often followed by corrections, making put selling a viable strategy. The entry point was at 41, and the target is a price reversion to a previous level, with the invalidation being a significant upward move beyond the expected range.
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Strategyput selling
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is in a rally phase
Target / exitPrice reverts to a previous level
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward move beyond expected range
SpeakerTom Stnoff
Risks- Market moves significantly higher than anticipated
- Volatility increases, leading to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
S&P 500 selling short with a defined risk
The speaker is short the S&P 500 and looks forward to market rallies, as they provide opportunities to sell higher. The speaker mentions selling some positions this morning and buying them back, with an average slightly lower than the current price. The speaker also notes that the market's behavior is characterized by rotating flow, where traders chase what's currently hot, and that the current rally is seen as a good spot to sell into. The target for the trade is set at 880, with the understanding that the trade may not close even at that level, but it is considered a valid trade.
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Strategyselling short with a defined risk
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket rallies, particularly in the morning
Target / exit880
Invalidation / stopMarket rallies beyond the target or significant news events
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market rallies beyond the target level
- Significant news events affecting the market
- Liquidity issues in the market
Trade idea
Salana shorting a rally
The speaker shorted Salana at 135, expecting it to drop to 50. This is based on the speaker's belief that the price had overbought and was expected to correct. The speaker acknowledges the risk of being wrong and the potential for a significant drop.
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Strategyshorting a rally
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the price was at 135
Target / exit50
Invalidation / stop50
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Price could continue to rise instead of falling
- Market volatility could affect the trade outcome
Trade idea
SPO buy the dip
The speaker suggests buying the dip after a significant price increase, indicating a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 index (SPO). The speaker notes that the index has been up 400 points and views this as positive bullish action. The idea is based on the belief that the market is showing signs of optimism and potential for further gains.
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Strategybuy the dip
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerafter a significant price increase
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerBrex
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further price declines
- Uncertainty in market sentiment
Trade idea
NVIDIA Call options on NVIDIA
If the stock price is around 310-330, and the IVR is low, the call options could be considered relatively cheap. The strategy is to buy call options on NVIDIA if the stock price is around 310-330, assuming the IVR is low. The target is for the stock price to rise above 320, which would indicate a bullish trend. The stop or invalidation is if the stock price falls below 310, indicating a bearish trend. The time horizon is short-term, as the options are for a one-year expiration.
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StrategyCall options on NVIDIA
Assetstock
Expirationone year
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerStock price around 310-330
Target / exitStock price rising above 320
Invalidation / stopStock price falling below 310
SpeakerTony
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect assumption about IVR
- Liquidity issues in options
Trade idea
SPAC buying before inclusion in major indices
The speaker suggests buying SPAC before its inclusion in the NASDAQ 100, as analysts predict passive funds may purchase up to $7.3 billion due to its inclusion. However, the speaker cautions against buying ahead of the inclusion, indicating a potential opportunity for those who can time the market. The speaker also notes that the inclusion date is July 7th, and the market reaction may be observed on the following Tuesday.
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Strategybuying before inclusion in major indices
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore inclusion in the NASDAQ 100
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility could impact the trade
- The inclusion may not result in the expected price movement
- Timing the market is inherently risky
Trade idea
SLV put
Silver's been kind of beat up
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Strategyput
Assetequity
ExpirationAUG
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSLV was down this morning but is now up 50 cents
Target / exit1%
Invalidation / stopAdjustment on the trade if SLV moves significantly
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movements
Trade idea
null buy the dip
The speaker advocates for buying on dips, particularly when price extremes are reached, as a strategy to capitalize on market volatility. The speaker mentions buying stocks on dips and using a minimum allocation approach, which suggests a disciplined approach to entering trades. The strategy is based on the idea that markets can be tradeable even in extreme conditions, and the speaker emphasizes the importance of position sizing based on conviction.
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Strategybuy the dip
Assetnull
Expirationnull
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbuying on dips when price extremes are reached
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility could lead to significant losses if the dip is not a reversal.
- The strategy may not work in a trending market where prices continue to move in one direction.
Trade idea
ES pairs trade
The speaker suggests that a pairs trade could be executed by going long on ES and short on oil, based on the current inverse correlation between the two assets. However, the speaker also notes that the trade could be simplified by either going long ES or short oil, as they are inversely correlated. The trade should be kept small due to the potential risks involved.
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Strategypairs trade
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerES is cheap and oil is expensive
Target / exitES and oil move inversely
Invalidation / stopIf ES and oil are not inversely correlated
SpeakerRon
Risks- Market volatility
- Inverse correlation may break
- Regulatory scrutiny
Trade idea
RTY credit spreads
The speaker mentions selling credit spreads or puts against the RTY with a snark, indicating a short-term, high-volatility strategy. This approach is suitable for traders looking to capitalize on near-term price movements, though it requires careful monitoring due to the limited time horizon and increased risk of directional moves.
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Strategycredit spreads
Assetindex
Expirationshort-term
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility
Target / exitpremium collected
Invalidation / stopsignificant price movement
SpeakerDean
Risks- rapid price changes
- time decay
- implied volatility changes
Trade idea
Nasdaq volatility and market weakness
The Nasdaq is currently weak due to underperformance of major tech stocks like Meta, Lou, and Nvidia. The speaker suggests that the Nasdaq's weakness could lead to further declines, especially if volatility remains elevated. The Nasdaq's performance is expected to impact the broader S&P index, making it a key indicator for traders to monitor.
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Strategyvolatility and market weakness
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNasdaq down 250 points
Target / exitNasdaq down 400 points
Invalidation / stopIf Nasdaq rallies above 250 points or volatility decreases significantly
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The Nasdaq may rally if positive news emerges.
- The speaker's analysis is based on short-term market conditions and may not account for long-term trends.
Trade idea
silver short calls and puts
The recent sharp move in silver and its subsequent consolidation suggest a potential reversal. By shorting calls and puts, the trader can profit from the price range. This strategy is suitable for short-term traders who can monitor the market closely and adjust positions as needed.
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Strategyshort calls and puts
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price has experienced a sharp move and is consolidating
Target / exitprofit from the price consolidation
Invalidation / stopif silver continues to move in a new direction
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- short calls above
- short puts below
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movement
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NG strangle
The speaker discusses a short strangle on natural gas (NG) with puts at 375/380 and calls at 450/455. They note a significant gap down on the opening, which they attribute to the inherent volatility of natural gas. The strategy is based on the expectation of a reversion to the mean after a large move up. The speaker acknowledges the difficulty of trading natural gas due to its high implied volatility and the potential for large price swings.
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Strategystrangle
Assetfutures
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility reversion
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerVinny
Risks- High volatility
- Large price gaps
- Market maker behavior
Trade idea
GLD short puts with call protection
The trader is short GLD puts with a combined Delta of 50, which exposes them to risk if gold rises. To mitigate this, they sell calls with a Delta of 15 or 20, reducing their risk by 35%. This strategy is based on the idea that selling calls can offset some of the risk from being short puts, while also maintaining a capital-efficient position. However, if gold continues to rise, the calls provide no protection, and the trader may face losses.
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Strategyshort puts with call protection
Assetequity
ExpirationMarch 31st
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort puts with a combined Delta of 50
Target / exitreduce risk by 35% through the sale of calls with a Delta of 15 or 20
Invalidation / stopif gold breaks further, the calls have no protection
Speakeranonymous
Structure / legs- short March 31st GLD puts (one in the money, one out of the money)
- sell calls against the position
Risks- If gold breaks further, the calls have no protection
- Rolling out in time may reduce risk by 20%, but it involves entering an illiquid option series
- The trader must stay in the March expiration and avoid rolling out to a less liquid series
Trade idea
Trade idea Taking profits on the way down
The speaker suggests taking profits on the way down when volatility is decreasing, as this is when volatility will come out. This is based on the observation that volatility drops on down moves and increases on up moves. The speaker advises exiting the position to avoid further losses and to get some sleep.
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StrategyTaking profits on the way down
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen volatility is decreasing on down moves
Target / exitExit position to avoid further losses
Invalidation / stopIf volatility continues to drop or the position moves against the trader
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility on up moves
- Emotional decision-making
Trade idea
UNH buying after a pullback
The speaker bought UnitedHealth (UNH) after it traded down to a low of 282, with the stock currently at 290. The trade idea is based on the belief that the stock had previously been undervalued and that the pullback presented an opportunity to enter a long position. The speaker also mentioned selling puts in Boeing, indicating a mixed approach to risk management.
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Strategybuying after a pullback
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading down to a low of 282
Target / exit290
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further pullbacks
Trade idea
MU Iron Condor
The speaker recommends selling an iron condor on Micron (MU) due to the stock's recent price movement and high implied volatility. The trade is structured with a wide range and is considered a classic iron condor setup. The speaker emphasizes the potential for profit given the current market conditions and the stock's volatility.
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StrategyIron Condor
AssetEquity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price at 630
Target / exitProfit from volatility and price range
Invalidation / stopIf stock price moves outside the range
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- Call spread: 1450-1460
- Put spread: 630-640
Risks- Market volatility
- Price movement outside the expected range
Trade idea
QQQI overlay with NDX options
The QQQI ETF allows investors to borrow against their portfolio, leveraging the yield to offset loan costs. This strategy is effective in a rising market, as the yield from the portfolio offsets the interest rate cost. The overlay with NDX options provides additional leverage, but the strategy is vulnerable to market downturns, where the collateral can be liquidated. The success of this strategy depends on the market continuing to rise, and the risk is primarily market-related.
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Strategyoverlay with NDX options
AssetETF
Expirationvariable
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerrising market
Target / exitmarket continues to rise
Invalidation / stopmarket decline
Speakeranonymous
Risks- market downturn
- collateral liquidation
- interest rate changes
Trade idea
Nvidia range breakout
The speaker believes that Nvidia is at the upper end of a range and expects a reversal to the downside. They sold some shares based on this expectation, anticipating a pullback. The speaker also mentions the potential for a gap up on the next day, suggesting a short-term reversal strategy. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will retrace from the upper range boundary.
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Strategyrange breakout
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice at the upper end of a range
Target / exitPrice reversal to the downside
Invalidation / stopPrice continuation above the range
SpeakerJim
Risks- Price continues to the upside
- Volatility may not materialize as expected
- Earnings report could impact sentiment
Trade idea
QQQ straddle
The strategy involves buying straddles in the QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) due to its lower implied volatility (24) compared to Nvidia (NVDA) with higher implied volatility (56). The idea is to capitalize on the volatility difference by buying the QQQ straddles and selling the NVDA straddles, weighted by volatility. This approach aims to profit from the difference in implied volatility, assuming the market behavior aligns with the volatility forecasts.
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Strategystraddle
AssetETF
Expirationmonth
Time horizonshort_term
Entry / triggerimplied_volatility_difference
Target / exitvolatility_profit
Invalidation / stopvolatility_convergence
Speakerunknown
Risks- volatility_convergence
- liquidity_constraints
- market_movement
Trade idea
NVDA call ratio spreads
The speaker executed a call ratio spread by buying the 05s and selling the 10s, expecting a 5% move in Nvidia. The trade was initiated with a small credit or debit, and the speaker acknowledges that the trade could be improved. The thesis is based on the expectation of a limited price movement, with the trade designed to profit from a downward move or a limited upward move.
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Strategycall ratio spreads
Assetequity
Expirationtwo days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia's current price at 196
Target / exit5% move
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves beyond the 10s strike
SpeakerTom
Risks- If the stock moves beyond the 10s strike, the trade could result in a loss.
- The trade is sensitive to volatility and the accuracy of the expected move.
Trade idea
NVDA sell on a higher print
The speaker is considering selling Nvidia futures if the stock rises, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. The rationale is that a higher print may signal a potential reversal or overbought condition, prompting a sell decision. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock may not sustain the upward movement, and the speaker is prepared to act if the price increases.
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Strategysell on a higher print
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif Nvidia goes up tonight
Invalidation / stopif the price does not rise
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The trade is based on a short-term outlook, which may not account for longer-term trends.
Trade idea
ZB strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle when volatility is super high, as seen in ZB due to the recent down move. This strategy is preferred over selling a single put or call when the trader believes the market is oversold. The strangle allows for capturing volatility while skewing the position to benefit from a potential reversal. The speaker also notes that the strangle should be skewed with a closer at-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call to capitalize on the perceived oversold condition.
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Strategystrangle
Assetbond
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility
Invalidation / stopvolatility not reaching super high levels
SpeakerMaria
Risks- volatility not reaching expected levels
- market moving against the strangle
- execution issues during high volatility
Trade idea
gold contrarian
The speaker suggests that after a large move in gold, a contrarian approach may be appropriate. They mention selling puts as a strategy, which implies a bullish bias, but also note that the market is volatile and requires careful risk management. The speaker's focus on micro contracts suggests a preference for smaller positions to mitigate risk in such environments.
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Strategycontrarian
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerafter a large move in gold
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerunknown
Risks- large price movements
- volatility
- market direction reversal
Trade idea
Trade idea strangle
short premium play
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Strategystrangle
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerselling a strangle in SanDisk with zero directional bias
Target / exittwo times the expected move on the call side and three times on the put side
Invalidation / stopno directional bias, emotional neutrality
SpeakerTony
Risks- emotional neutrality
- volatility contraction
Trade idea
SPY monthly strangles
challenge to go shorter dated with strategy
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Strategymonthly strangles
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerusing $60,000 buying power
Target / exitmaximize account size
Invalidation / stopdefine risk, $20 wide iron condor or synthetic strangles
SpeakerNotredogus
Risks- volatility at lows down 50%
- account size limitations
Trade idea
SLV scalping
The speaker mentions SLV as one of their favorite stocks to trade, indicating a preference for this ETF. The strategy involves scalping, which requires quick entry and exit to capture small profits. The speaker's focus on active trading in the equity marketplace suggests that SLV is a viable candidate for scalping due to its liquidity and market activity.
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Strategyscalping
AssetETF
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerActive trading in the equity marketplace
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity risk
- Execution risk
Trade idea
SPX iron condor
The speaker discusses their strategy of selling 20 delta 45-day SPX iron condors with $20 wings, maintaining delta neutrality. They note that the put legs are further away than the call legs, and suggest tightening the put side to earn more premium. The speaker acknowledges that skewing the condors can be beneficial, depending on market outlook, and suggests adjusting the put legs closer to the call legs to collect more premium while accepting a slight delta imbalance.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetindex
Expiration45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdelta neutral with 20 delta wings
Target / exitpremium collection
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the position
SpeakerMike
Risks- market volatility
- delta imbalance
- expiration risk
Trade idea
Trade idea Iron Condor
The speaker suggests adjusting the put legs of an iron condor to collect more premium when the market is neutral to slightly bullish. This involves moving the put legs up while maintaining a slight long delta. The strategy is based on market sentiment and allows for flexibility. The trader should consider the market's overbought or oversold conditions to adjust the skew accordingly.
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StrategyIron Condor
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerNeutral to slightly bullish market
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the skew
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market moves against the skew
- Volatility changes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SPX contrarian trading
The speaker discusses a trade where they went long the SPX (S&P 500) at a specific level, which was later validated by the market moving higher. They describe this as a contrarian trade, indicating that they entered the trade when the market was at a lower level, expecting a rebound. The trade was successful, and the speaker acknowledges it as a good example of a contrarian approach. The trade idea is based on identifying market dips and entering long positions with the expectation of a rebound.
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Strategycontrarian trading
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket dips to a certain level
Target / exitmarket reaches a higher level
Invalidation / stopmarket continues to decline
SpeakerJeff
Risks- Market continues to decline
- Volatility increases
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
gold straddles
Long straddles on gold and silver have been profitable due to market volatility. The strategy works when there is anticipated price movement, and the trader is willing to accept the risk of a stable market. The market maker's need to hedge the trade influences the execution price, which should be close to the midpoint for liquid markets.
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Strategystraddles
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility or anticipated price movement
Target / exitprofit from price movement
Invalidation / stoploss if price remains stable
SpeakerSteven
Risks- Market remains stable
- Liquidity issues
- Execution price not favorable
Trade idea
ORCL put selling
The speaker is short put options on Oracle (ORCL) with the expectation that the stock will not fall below the strike prices of the puts. The speaker expresses a contrarian view, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued despite a significant drop over six months. The trade is based on the belief that the stock will not decline further, and the put options are sold at a premium to profit from the time decay and the potential for the stock to remain above the strike prices.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
ExpirationMarch and April
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerOracle (ORCL) price at $1.31
Target / exit75 cents
Invalidation / stopOracle price rising above $1.31
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- short 125 puts (March, 3 days to expiration)
- short 135 puts (April, 3 days to expiration)
Risks- Oracle's price could fall below the strike prices, resulting in losses
- Market volatility could cause unexpected price movements
- Time decay may not be sufficient to offset potential losses if the stock declines
Trade idea
Trade idea buying bonds
the bond market has been performing well and the speaker has been long bonds
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Strategybuying bonds
Assetbond
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbonds moving up
Target / exit104
Invalidation / stopno specific stop mentioned
SpeakerThomas
Trade idea
Trade idea covered call
The trade idea involves maintaining the covered call position while considering the possibility of rolling the call to a higher strike price to keep the wheel alive.
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Strategycovered call
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia wheel with 2,000 shares, cost basis $136, current price $218
Target / exitRoll the call higher and keep the wheel alive
Invalidation / stopBetter setups elsewhere may not be available at expiration
SpeakerPat
Risks- Potential loss if the stock price drops significantly
- Opportunity cost of not pursuing better setups elsewhere
Trade idea
Hood strangle
the 8115 strangle for about 240 is a marginal trade
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading right there right now
Target / exitalmost twice as much room to the upside as the downside
Invalidation / stopcall skew in Robin Hood
Speakerspeaker
Structure / legs- 80 strike put
- 115 strike call
Risks- call skew
- market volatility
Trade idea
Trade idea Trading earnings with a focus on high volatility and avoiding premium buying
Trading earnings is most effective when volatility is high and risk is managed carefully.
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StrategyTrading earnings with a focus on high volatility and avoiding premium buying
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigh volatility during earnings season
Target / exitSmall wins by staying outside the expected move
Invalidation / stopLarge losses if the stock moves outside the expected move
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Large losses if the stock moves outside the expected move
Trade idea
UBER selling puts
The speaker suggests selling June 65 puts on Uber at a price of $52, assuming the stock is trading around $70. The rationale is that the stock is at its lowest point, and the put option could be a profitable trade if the stock price drops below $65. The risk is that the stock price could rise above $70, resulting in a loss.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price at $70
Target / exitPrice below $65
Invalidation / stopPrice above $70
SpeakerAI
Risks- Price could rise above $70
- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
UBER Sell Puts
The speaker suggests selling June 65 puts on Uber, which is near its lowest point. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock will rebound from its recent low. The implied volatility is considered acceptable, and the expected move is used to determine the break-even point. The trade is considered viable if the stock moves upward, allowing the seller to profit from the premium received.
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StrategySell Puts
AssetEquity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock near its lowest point
Target / exitBreak-even at 63.50
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves below 63.50
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- If the stock continues to decline below the strike price
- Volatility may not support the expected move
- Market conditions may change rapidly
Trade idea
VXM volatility_betting
The speaker describes VXM as a synthetic spy trade that is cheaper than trading SPY directly. It is recommended for those looking to bet on market volatility. The trade is considered a way to bet on lower market prices, with a one-for-one correlation with volatility. The speaker suggests it as an alternative to VIX options, which they personally dislike.
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Strategyvolatility_betting
Assetvolatility
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket volatility is expected to increase.
Invalidation / stopMarket volatility decreases or the trade moves against the position.
SpeakerSaul
Risks- Market volatility may not increase as expected.
- The trade could be affected by broader market movements.
- The synthetic nature of VXM may introduce additional risks not present in direct SPY trading.
Trade idea
HG Hedging
The speaker suggests that copper may offer more upside potential compared to other metals like silver, which are perceived as overbought. However, the speaker cautions that hedging with copper is not a guaranteed strategy and depends on the context of the trade. If the goal is to keep the position open for hedging purposes, copper could be considered, but if the trade can be exited, it's better to do so. The speaker also notes that the relationship between silver, gold, and copper as hedges is not well-defined and may not be reliable.
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StrategyHedging
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf the trader is short silver and wants to hedge the position, buying copper contracts could be considered as a hedge.
Target / exitThe speaker suggests that copper has more room to the upside compared to other metals, but the exact target is not specified.
Invalidation / stopThe speaker warns that if the trade can be exited, it's better to do so, implying that the trade may be invalid if the market moves against the hedge.
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- The effectiveness of copper as a hedge is uncertain
- The market conditions are volatile and unpredictable
- The speaker has no personal experience with copper trading
Trade idea
silver spread trading
The speaker suggests that the spread between gold and silver is a false hedge, as it has fluctuated significantly over time. The speaker indicates that the spread was previously $51 but has since dropped to lower levels, suggesting that the hedge is not reliable. The speaker also mentions that trading copper against silver might be a better alternative, but acknowledges that copper is less liquid and has wider options, requiring caution.
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Strategyspread trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the spread between gold and silver is at a high level
Target / exitthe spread reverts to a lower level
Invalidation / stopif the spread continues to widen beyond historical levels
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The spread may continue to widen beyond historical levels
- The liquidity of copper is lower than that of silver
- The options for copper may be wider, increasing the risk of large losses
Trade idea
BTC buy on dips
The speaker believes that Bitcoin is likely to move lower in the near term, with a target of 75,000. They advocate for a 'buy on dips' strategy, suggesting that investors should buy during pullbacks rather than at current levels. The speaker also highlights the long-term bullish potential of crypto, advocating for holding Bitcoin and Ethereum as core positions, while suggesting a small allocation to other cryptocurrencies for diversification. The speaker notes that while they are long crypto, they are not short, and they recommend allocating 1-2% of a portfolio to crypto for diversification and upside potential due to its high volatility.
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Strategybuy on dips
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerBitcoin reaching 75,000
Target / exit75,000
Invalidation / stopIf Bitcoin fails to reach 75,000, the trade may be invalidated
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further declines
- Uncertainty in market conditions
Trade idea
Nike put spread
profit from downside risk if stock remains below strike price
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Strategyput spread
Assetstock
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock at multi-year low
Target / exitsell at a dollar
Invalidation / stopstock price movement
SpeakerVinnie
Risks- stock price rises
- volatility changes
Trade idea
BABA earnings play
BABA's earnings play is a trade idea
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Strategyearnings play
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerearnings play
Target / exitpop of 61%
Invalidation / stopmarket volatility
SpeakerScott
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected earnings results
Trade idea
Trade idea selling
NQ puts are more capital efficient than QQQ puts
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Strategyselling
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerselling a 12 delta put on NQ
Target / exit10 times the size
Invalidation / stoptrade size
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea
Trade idea Roll up put spread
Adjust position if close to 21 days
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StrategyRoll up put spread
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf you're 24-28 days out
Target / exitCollect 20-30 cents
Invalidation / stopRisk of whipsawed movement
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- More risk on the downside
Trade idea
Bonds put options
The speaker is considering buying put options on bonds if they fall below 113 handle, anticipating a potential rebound. The strategy is based on the belief that a break below 6,000 on the S&P 500 could trigger a flight to quality, pushing bond prices higher. The trade is positioned as a short-term opportunity with a defined risk and reward profile.
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Strategyput options
Assetfixed_income
ExpirationMay
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerBonds fall below 113 handle
Target / exitBonds rise to around 114 handle
Invalidation / stopIf bonds do not fall below 113 handle, the trade is invalid
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market conditions may not support the anticipated rebound
- Interest rate changes could impact bond prices
Trade idea
ZB buying puts
The speaker is considering buying May 112 puts on ZB (likely U.S. Treasury bonds) due to the belief that the market may reach a new low. The speaker acknowledges that the puts have reached nearly their highest level again, indicating a potential for further decline. The speaker is hesitant to execute the trade immediately but is prepared to act after the show, suggesting a strategic wait for confirmation of market conditions.
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Strategybuying puts
Assetbond
ExpirationMay
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent market conditions
Target / exitnearly this high again
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market may not reach the expected low
- Volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
Trade idea Strangles
Skew strangles based on market sentiment and stock valuation
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StrategyStrangles
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen stocks are beaten up or too expensive
SpeakerSpeaker
Trade idea
CL call spread
take advantage of market condition
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Strategycall spread
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercrude oil is up 250
Target / exitcollect between one-third to 25% of the width of strikes
Invalidation / stopcall skew in crude oil
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market reversal
- volatility drop
Trade idea
Trade idea strangle
The speaker and their friend Jules attempted to sell a strangle in every strike of the S&P, which resulted in a significant loss. The trade was based on a lack of attention to volatility levels and market conditions. The trade idea highlights the importance of understanding volatility and market dynamics before entering complex options strategies. The failure of the trade serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of overleveraging and not considering market conditions.
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Strategystrangle
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerselling a strangle in every single strike in the S&P
Invalidation / stopvolatility and market moves
SpeakerScott
Risks- volatility
- market moves
- overleveraging
Trade idea
COST Put selling
The speaker discusses selling puts on Costco stock at the 900 and 875 levels when the stock was trading around 850. The speaker believed that the stock would eventually rise above these levels, indicating a bullish outlook. The speaker also mentions that the stock has been on a tear to the upside after a period of weakness.
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StrategyPut selling
AssetEquity
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonNot specified
Entry / triggerStock price at 850 level
Target / exitStock price above 900 level
Invalidation / stopStock price below 850 level
SpeakerThe speaker
Structure / legs- Put at 900 level
- Put at 875 level
Risks- The stock could fall below the put strike price, resulting in a loss
- Market volatility could impact the stock price
- The stock could trade below the put strike price before expiration
Trade idea
IBM Delta Neutral Strangle
The speaker suggests selling a delta-neutral strangle on IBM, with puts at 315 and calls at 490. The strategy is based on the stock being 'beaten up' and the expected move being 'one and a half times the expected move at each side'. The speaker notes that this strategy has been profitable in Microsoft trades, but requires rolling down the untested side and adjusting as needed.
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StrategyDelta Neutral Strangle
AssetEquity
ExpirationAugust 200
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock is down $47
Target / exitCollect around $605-$610
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly against the position
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Stock price movement against the position
- Execution risk
Trade idea
Nasdaq volatility crush
The speaker notes that the Nasdaq and S&P have experienced a sharp rally, indicating a risk-off environment. The speaker advises against buying individual stocks at current prices, suggesting that the market is in a state of consolidation or correction. The speaker also mentions that volatility has been crushed, indicating that the market may not sustain the rally. The speaker's personal trading decisions include selling positions in the overnight session, suggesting a short-term bearish outlook.
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Strategyvolatility crush
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket rally of over 4% in a single day
Target / exitMarket consolidation or correction
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or continued rally
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility increase
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
S&P 500 Two-sided risk
The speaker suggests that the risk has flipped, indicating a two-sided market with potential for both upward and downward movements. The speaker believes that the upside is less attractive than it was previously, and the risk is now more balanced. The speaker also mentions that the April expiration could take a lot of risk off the table, suggesting a potential for market consolidation or a shift in direction. The thesis is based on the speaker's assessment of market sentiment and volatility.
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StrategyTwo-sided risk
Assetindex
ExpirationApril
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket at 6800
Target / exitUncertain
Invalidation / stopUncertain
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Uncertainty in market direction
- Potential for unexpected events
Trade idea
Trade idea put credit spreads
The speaker advises widening the spread when scaling a trading strategy, as it allows for additional buying power and risk. This is particularly relevant for strategies like five delta wide put credit spreads, where the risk limit can accommodate multiple spreads. The recommendation is to always widen the spreads first before adding contracts or other forms of buying power.
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Strategyput credit spreads
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading lower-priced instruments within a risk limit
Target / exitmultiple five delta wide spreads
Invalidation / stopif the price of the instrument moves beyond the risk limit
SpeakerD Penn
Risks- increased risk due to wider spreads
- potential for larger losses if the market moves against the position
Trade idea
SPX iron condors
Rodrigo suggests that when volatility is low, it's better to ladder iron condors across multiple expirations to synthetically create higher implied volatility in longer durations. However, when volatility is high, focusing on near-month expirations is more effective. The strategy involves opening one iron condor per day, with a focus on the front month and the next month. This approach allows for flexibility in managing volatility and maximizing returns based on market conditions.
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Strategyiron condors
Assetindex
Expiration45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerlow volatility
Target / exitvolatility increase
Invalidation / stopvolatility decrease
SpeakerRodrigo
Risks- volatility may not increase as expected
- market direction may move against the short position
- liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
SPX iron condor
Given the current high volatility, the speaker suggests focusing on the near-month options, specifically March and April, for an iron condor strategy. This is based on the idea that high volatility creates a synthetic higher volatility environment, which is more suitable for such strategies. If volatility were to drop significantly, the strategy would need to be adjusted to longer-dated options.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetindex
ExpirationMarch, April
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh implied volatility
Target / exitsynthetic higher volatility environment
Invalidation / stopif volatility drops below 15 in the VIX or VIX futures
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility could drop below the threshold, requiring a strategy adjustment.
- Market direction could move against the short delta position.
- Implied volatility could change rapidly, affecting the effectiveness of the strategy.
Trade idea
silver straddle/strangle
The speaker discusses the risks of being long silver during a sharp decline, suggesting that a short position or a straddle/strangle strategy could have been used to protect against downside risk. The strategy involves adjusting delta to ensure net exposure is slightly short, which can help mitigate losses during a downturn. The invalidation level is if silver moves upward or volatility decreases, which would indicate the strategy is no longer effective.
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Strategystraddle/strangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen silver is expected to move significantly downward
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopif silver moves upward or volatility decreases
SpeakerLarry
Risks- volatility risk
- market direction risk
- execution risk
Trade idea
NASDAQ Sell on the bounce
The speaker sold NASDAQ futures on the bounce after a decline, targeting a specific price level. The trade was based on the expectation of a short-term rebound, with a stop at the previous low. The trade was executed with a clear entry point and a defined target, indicating a disciplined approach to short-term trading.
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StrategySell on the bounce
AssetFutures
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket bounce after a decline
Target / exit30,299
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or significant news event
SpeakerTony Batista
Risks- Market reversal
- Slippage
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Meta fade the move
The speaker suggests that in a choppy market, one can fade every move. For example, if a stock like Meta moves down 18% in a day, it could be a candidate for a defined risk trade to fade the move to the upside. Alternatively, if the stock continues to move in the same direction, it may be a sign of a larger trend.
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Strategyfade the move
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock has moved significantly in one direction
Target / exitfade the move to the upside or downside
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues to move in the same direction without reversal
Speakerspeaker
Structure / legs- call spread
- defined risk trade
Risks- Market can reverse quickly
- Liquidity issues in the options market
- Volatility can increase the cost of the trade
Trade idea
Trade idea defined risk trade
The speaker recommends using a bullish strategy on a down day, such as a vertical spread, to capitalize on potential upward movement. This approach is considered a defined risk trade, which limits potential losses while allowing for profit if the stock moves in the desired direction.
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Strategydefined risk trade
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggeron a down day
SpeakerTony
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect assumptions about stock behavior
Trade idea
Dell Double Ratio
The speaker suggests a double ratio strategy involving buying the 90 put and selling the 80 put for a $2 credit. This trade is considered more effective when the stock price is down two and a half. The strategy is based on the idea that the stock price is expected to remain within a certain range, allowing the trader to profit from the credit received while limiting risk.
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StrategyDouble Ratio
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price down two and a half
Target / exitCredit of $2
Invalidation / stopStock price moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility could cause the stock price to move beyond the expected range
- The trade may not generate the expected credit if the stock price moves against the trade
Trade idea
MNQ scalping
The speaker mentions selling MNQs and having bids in, indicating a short-term scalping strategy. The discussion around the NASDAQ's performance and the speaker's positive scalp suggests a focus on short-term price movements. The trade idea is based on the speaker's actions and the market context provided.
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Strategyscalping
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket price above the bid
Target / exitImmediate profit from short-term price movements
Invalidation / stopMarket price drops below the bid
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected price movements
Trade idea
Trade idea Defined risk trade
If IVR remains elevated, it is preferable to defend and adjust the position. This is based on the idea that defined risk trades have a 60% chance of reaching the strike price. If volatility collapses, the position should be closed as it may be exposed to significant risk. The strategy involves reducing delta by 50% if the trade is a defined risk strategy.
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StrategyDefined risk trade
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf IVR remains elevated
Target / exitDefend and adjust the position
Invalidation / stopIf the trade is a loser and volatility collapses, close the position
SpeakerMichael
Risks- Market movements could lead to losses if the trade is a loser.
- Volatility collapse could result in significant losses if the position is not closed in time.
Trade idea
ZN selling puts
The speaker is selling June 108 puts in the ZN (10-year Treasury Note) futures contract for approximately 30 ticks. This trade is based on the expectation that the market price will not fall below the strike price of 108, allowing the seller to keep the premium. The trade is considered a short-term opportunity, and the speaker notes that the exact price at the time of writing is not specified, indicating that the trade is based on current market conditions.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetbond
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket price at the time of writing
Target / exit30 ticks
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market price could fall below the strike price, resulting in a loss if the put is exercised.
Trade idea
ZN selling puts
The speaker is selling puts on the 10-year note (ZN) to gain exposure to a potential decline in interest rates. The strategy is based on the expectation that rates will decrease, which would increase the value of the note. The trade is considered bullish, and the speaker is willing to take on short delta to benefit from the anticipated move. The risk is that if rates do not decline, the put could be exercised, resulting in a loss.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetinterest rate
Expiration10-year note
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerexpecting interest rates to decline
Target / exitinterest rates come down a little
Invalidation / stopif rates do not decline
Speakerunknown
Risks- Interest rates may not decline as expected
- Market volatility could impact the note's price
Trade idea
SAN strangle
The speaker executed a strangle in SanDisk (SAN) based on the stock's price movement, indicating a short position. The trade was based on the stock's recent decline, with the expectation of further downward movement. The speaker expressed uncertainty about the trade's effectiveness, noting that the stock had moved $200 a day but had recently declined by $3 to $5. The trade was not recommended to others, suggesting a personal strategy rather than a general recommendation.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice movement below a certain threshold
Target / exitPrice decline of $3 to $5
Invalidation / stopPrice increase above a certain threshold
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Price reversal
- Volatility
- Market conditions
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL selling puts
The speaker sells puts on crude oil, expecting the price to remain below the strike price. The speaker notes that the puts have a delta of 23, indicating a moderate sensitivity to price changes. The speaker acknowledges that this trade has been a losing one so far but believes that the market may provide better opportunities in the future. The speaker also mentions that the trade is part of a broader strategy of being short crude oil, which has been a long-term position.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercrude oil price is below a certain level
Target / exitprice increase to a specified level
Invalidation / stopprice drops below a certain level
Speakerspeaker
Risks- the price could drop below the strike price
- the market could move against the position
- the trade could result in a loss
Trade idea
Nasdaq short-term volatility trade
The speaker notes that the Nasdaq is down more than 100, suggesting a potential short-term volatility trade. The speaker also mentions that the options market is rich, indicating potential for a short-term trade. The speaker suggests that the market may continue to decline, with the Nasdaq potentially reaching a lower level.
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Strategyshort-term volatility trade
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNasdaq down more than 100
Target / exitNasdaq down 150
Invalidation / stopNasdaq up 50
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility decrease
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea Sell Puts on Bonds
The speaker suggests selling puts on bonds as a trade idea, based on the belief that bonds may be a buy at 113.25. The speaker acknowledges that the expectation of bonds reaching 115 is not fixed and that the trade should be flexible. The speaker emphasizes that the trade should not be based on fixed expectations but rather on the opportunity presented by the current market conditions.
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StrategySell Puts on Bonds
Time horizonShort term
Entry / triggerBonds are at 113.25
Target / exitBonds trade at 115
Invalidation / stopIf bonds do not reach 115 within a short timeframe
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market may not reach the target price
- Potential for significant losses if the market moves against the trade
Trade idea
Trade idea Premium selling with high implied volatility
The speaker emphasizes the importance of high implied volatility, liquidity, and subjective price extremes when entering a trade. This suggests a strategy focused on premium selling, where the trader profits from the decay of options premiums. The rationale is that high implied volatility indicates a greater potential for price movement, which can be exploited by selling options. The trade idea is based on the premise that these conditions create opportunities for profit, though the specific instrument or market is not mentioned.
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StrategyPremium selling with high implied volatility
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigh implied volatility and liquidity
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility can lead to losses if the price movement does not align with the trader's expectations
- Liquidity issues may prevent the execution of the trade at the desired price
Trade idea
AAPL strangle
volatility is high and stock is expected to move $21
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
ExpirationSE
Time horizonshort term
Entry / triggerpost earnings
Target / exitdelta neutral
Invalidation / stopif stock sticks around 300
Speakerunknown
Risks- adjust strikes if needed
- stock could move more than expected
Trade idea
Trade idea rolling options with consistent duration and strikes
being consistent with duration and mechanics is key
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Strategyrolling options with consistent duration and strikes
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen IVR remains heightened
Target / exitprofit from volatility collapse
Invalidation / stopif IVR collapses, move on
Speakerunknown
Risks- defined risk is given up
- profitability depends on theta decay
Trade idea
Nasdaq Spike Trade
The speaker sold Nasdaq due to a spike trade, indicating a short-term strategy based on market volatility. The trade was executed on a spike, suggesting a belief that the market would reverse or consolidate. However, the exact entry point, target, and stop-loss levels are not specified, making it a speculative trade based on emotional reaction rather than a well-defined strategy.
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StrategySpike Trade
AssetEquity Index
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket spike
Target / exitNot specified
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity risk
- Emotional bias
Trade idea
SOXS Scalping
The speaker discusses a trade on SOXS, where they bought the stock in the morning and immediately sold it out after a short-term reversal. The trade was based on the idea of scalping, which involves taking advantage of short-term price movements. The speaker mentions that they had too much of the stock already, so they decided to buy and sell quickly. The trade was successful, as the stock reversed out of spite, indicating a short-term reversal in price. The trade was executed with a clear entry and exit point, and the speaker notes that it usually works out well.
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StrategyScalping
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPre-market rally
Target / exitImmediate reversal
Invalidation / stopOverbought condition or continued rally
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Short-term price movements
- Overexposure to the stock
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker is considering a strangle on SLV with a strike price of 6080, noting that the IVR has decreased from 100 to 32. They believe the expected move of $9 is still significant, and the trade is considered liquid enough. The speaker suggests that this is a trade worth considering due to the potential for upside and the current volatility levels.
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price around $66-67
Target / exitexpected move of $9
Invalidation / stopIVR down to 32
SpeakerScott
Risks- Volatility may not materialize as expected
- Market conditions can change rapidly
- The trade may not perform as anticipated due to unexpected news or events
Trade idea
COIN Wide Iron Condor or Wide Strangle
The speaker suggests that COIN (Coinbase) is a viable candidate for wide iron condors or wide strangles due to its liquidity and the potential for a wide range. The speaker notes that COIN has had a significant price movement and is currently at a level that could allow for a wide spread, making it an attractive option for collecting premiums. The strategy is based on the idea that the market may not move significantly within the range, allowing the trader to profit from the premium collected.
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StrategyWide Iron Condor or Wide Strangle
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket conditions allow for wide strangles or condors
Target / exitCollect premium from wide range
Invalidation / stopMarket volatility or unexpected news
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected news or events
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nike Put
The speaker is short the 40 puts in Nike, expecting the stock to remain range-bound. The trade is considered a small loser until today, but the speaker likes the play due to the implied volatility and the potential for a break-even or small loss. The trade is a short-term play with limited risk.
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StrategyPut
AssetEquity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock has been range-bound for months
Target / exitBreak-even or small loss
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward movement
SpeakerScott
Risks- Significant upward movement could lead to losses
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
Apple Identify trade opportunities in volatile underlyings
The speaker suggests that Apple's price drop of $8 or $9 could be an ideal opportunity to look for a trade. This is based on the idea that volatile underlyings with significant price movements can offer trading opportunities. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of focusing on liquid and volatile stocks, which can provide more reliable signals for trade entry.
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StrategyIdentify trade opportunities in volatile underlyings
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice drops by $8 or $9
Invalidation / stopPrice moves against the trade
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect timing of entry
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
S&P put spread
The speaker suggests selling a put spread with a $10 or $15 wide range to hedge against potential downturns in the S&P. The idea is to manage risk by limiting the downside while allowing for potential upside. The strategy is to get back to even and then start with a new position, indicating a short-term approach with a focus on risk management.
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Strategyput spread
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket reversal
Target / exitreaching even
Invalidation / stopmarket reversal
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Limited capital
- Spread costs
Trade idea
6E sell calls or call spreads
The dollar is expected to rebound, which would likely result in a decline in the euro. To capitalize on this, one can sell call options on the euro (6E) as the most liquid futures options. This strategy assumes the inverse relationship between the dollar and euro, which is a common market dynamic. The trade requires futures trading approval and is suitable for traders with a $15,000 account.
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Strategysell calls or call spreads
Assetfutures
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdollar rebound expected
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopdollar does not rebound or euro does not decline
SpeakerTom and Scott
Risks- Market conditions may change the inverse relationship
- Liquidity issues in the euro futures market
- Need for futures trading approval
Trade idea
SPX broken_wing_butterfly
The broken wing butterfly strategy on the put side with 5 and 10 delta strikes is a high-probability trade that can be rolled out when tested. This strategy is suitable for traders who believe the market is trending upwards, as it allows for rolling the put side if necessary. The trade involves using two separate put spreads if the entire spread cannot be rolled due to platform limitations.
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Strategybroken_wing_butterfly
Assetindex
Expiration1DTE
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertested
Target / exitroll the vertical part of the trade
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the trade
SpeakerEugene
Risks- market moves against the trade
- platform limitations may restrict rolling the entire spread
Trade idea
ROBINHOOD put selling
The speaker is short puts on Robinhood, which has experienced a significant move from 75 to 71.87. The strategy involves selling puts to collect premium, with the expectation that the stock will remain within a certain range. The speaker is debating whether to hold the position until the earnings report, which could impact the stock's price. The trade is considered a good one due to the move, but there is uncertainty about the outcome of the earnings report.
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Strategyput selling
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading at 75 bucks
Target / exit71.87
Invalidation / stopearnings report
SpeakerBogey
Risks- Earnings report could cause significant price movement
- Potential for unlimited loss if the stock drops sharply
Trade idea
S&P 500 shorting the S&P 500 after a recent upward move
The speaker mentions being 'happy' with the recent upward move of the S&P 500 and plans to 'get a little short' as a response to the move. This indicates a short-term trade idea based on the recent upward trend, with the intention to profit from a potential reversal or consolidation.
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Strategyshorting the S&P 500 after a recent upward move
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerafter a significant upward move
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerBogey
Risks- Market reversal could lead to losses
- Volatility could increase the risk of a short position
Trade idea
TENS/TWOS pairs trading
The yield curve trade involves buying the higher side (tens) and selling the lower side (twos) based on the expectation of mean reversion. The ratio is determined by volatility and notional value, with a typical ratio of 1:4 or 1:5. The trade is based on the idea that the spread is wider than usual and is expected to narrow, reflecting the market's expectation of mean reversion in the yield curve.
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Strategypairs trading
Assetinterest_rate
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerspread wider than usual
Target / exitmean reversion to narrower spread
Invalidation / stopspread continues to widen
SpeakerRick
Risks- Spread may not revert as expected
- Volatility may increase
- Notional value and volatility may change
Trade idea
null short premium across the board
The speaker is short premium across the board due to market uncertainty and liquidity concerns. This strategy is based on the idea that the market is in a 'no man's land' with potential for both upward and downward movements. The speaker is cautious about liquidity and suggests a 'typical Tom strategy' with a short delta and short premium.
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Strategyshort premium across the board
Assetnull
Expirationnull
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility and uncertainty
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernull
Risks- Market direction could move against the short position
- Liquidity issues may affect execution
Trade idea
null scalping
The speaker suggests that individual stocks, particularly in sectors like software, have been effective for scalping due to increased volatility and activity. This strategy is suitable when there is significant short-term price movement in specific sectors, but it requires monitoring market conditions and liquidity. The speaker also notes that micro futures are better for scalping than leveraged ETFs, but ETFs can be a viable alternative if they are liquid.
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Strategyscalping
Assetnull
Expirationnull
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility in specific sectors (e.g., software stocks)
Target / exitshort-term price movements
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions change or liquidity decreases
SpeakerDave
Risks- market conditions can change rapidly
- liquidity issues in specific stocks or ETFs
- increased exposure to short-term volatility
Trade idea
AMD buying dips
The speaker mentions adding to a position in AMD after a dip, indicating a belief in the stock's potential for a rebound. This suggests a strategy of buying dips when the stock is oversold, with the expectation of a price retest of previous resistance levels.
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Strategybuying dips
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice dips below a key support level
Target / exitprice retests previous resistance
Invalidation / stopbreak below support level
Speakerunknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nvidia selling upside calls
The speaker suggests selling upside calls on Nvidia as a strategy to profit from potential price declines while limiting downside risk. However, the speaker acknowledges that this is not an easy trade and requires precise timing. The speaker also notes that shorting Nvidia has been a poor strategy in the past, indicating the need for careful execution and market analysis.
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Strategyselling upside calls
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the stock is overvalued and the market is expected to decline
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected if the stock price remains below the strike price
Invalidation / stopif the stock price rises significantly above the strike price, the trade could result in substantial losses
Speakerunknown
Risks- significant losses if the stock price rises
- difficulty in timing the market
- potential for large losses if the stock price moves against the position
Trade idea
Trade idea upside calls
In a high market environment, selling upside calls is a recommended strategy. This approach is based on the assumption that the market may not continue to rise indefinitely, and the seller can profit from the premium collected if the underlying asset does not exceed the strike price. The strategy is particularly suited for markets at all-time highs, where the potential for a pullback is higher.
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Strategyupside calls
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket at all-time highs
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market continues to rise beyond the strike price
- Volatility may affect the premium collected
Trade idea
Trade idea strangle
The speaker advocates for short strangles as a go-to strategy, particularly in volatile markets. This approach is based on the idea that market movements provide opportunities, and liquidity is a key factor in executing trades. The strategy is not tied to specific symbols but rather to the overall market conditions, emphasizing flexibility and responsiveness to market dynamics.
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Strategystrangle
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility and liquidity
Invalidation / stopmarket movement and liquidity
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market movement against the position
- Liquidity issues
- Volatility decay
Trade idea
IBM Buy on pullback
The speaker discusses IBM's price drop and considers buying it at a lower price. The reasoning is that the price drop may represent a buying opportunity, and the proposed action is to buy the stock if it reaches a lower price. The invalidation level is a break below the key support level, indicating that the trade idea is based on a potential reversal.
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StrategyBuy on pullback
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice drops below a key support level
Target / exitPrice reaches a previous resistance level
Invalidation / stopPrice breaks below a key support level
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect price movement
Trade idea
gold put selling
The speaker mentions buying back gold puts that were sold the previous day, indicating a short position in gold. The puts were sold when the price was around $7 or $8 lower than the previous day's price, which was up $100. The speaker considers this a 'good trade' and suggests that the position was closed or adjusted. The thesis is that the speaker is short gold, and the trade was based on the expectation that the price would not rise significantly, allowing the puts to be profitable.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice at a certain level
Target / exitprice at a lower level
Invalidation / stopprice at a higher level
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- price increase
- volatility
- time decay
Trade idea
META strangles
The speaker sold strangles in Meta and the chip stock ETF SMH due to their belief that implied volatility was excessively high, indicating overpriced options. The reasoning is that high IVR may reflect speculative behavior rather than true risk, creating an opportunity to short the volatility. The trade was based on the assumption that the market was inflating volatility, not reflecting actual risk. The speaker emphasized that this approach is mechanical and relies on IVR as a key indicator.
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Strategystrangles
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR at 100, which is the highest over the last year for Meta
Invalidation / stopIf IVR drops significantly or if the market shows signs of genuine risk increase
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market may not be mispricing risk, leading to potential losses if volatility is justified by fundamentals
- Volatility could spike further, increasing the risk of losses
Trade idea
EUR strangle
The speaker has been short strangles on the euro for the entire year, noting that while the returns have not been great, they are up money. They mention that the euro is the most liquid of all the currencies and that they like selling puts here. The speaker also notes that the IVR is currently at 60%, which they find high for the euro, and that they are looking to sell naked puts on Rocket Lab.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcurrency
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR at 60%
Target / exitpremium destruction
Invalidation / stopif the euro moves significantly against the short position
SpeakerLarry Olsson
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for significant losses if the euro moves against the short position
- The strategy may not be suitable for all traders
Trade idea
70 to 75 puts short put
The speaker is short the 70 to 75 puts ahead of earnings, expecting the stock to decline. The rationale is based on the stock's recent performance and the potential for a decline due to earnings. The speaker is not covering the positions, indicating a commitment to the trade. The risk is that the stock could rise, leading to a loss on the short put position.
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Strategyshort put
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort the 70 to 75 puts ahead of earnings
Target / exitprofit from the stock's potential decline
Invalidation / stopif the stock rises above the strike price
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The stock could rise, leading to a loss on the short put position.
- Earnings could be better than expected, leading to a decline in the put's value.
Trade idea
Rocket Labs strangle
If a trader sells a put on Rocket Labs and the stock price drops significantly, the put becomes a losing trade. To adjust, the trader can roll the call down or recenter the position by buying the guts and selling the wings in the same month. This allows for delta neutralization and risk reduction. Rolling to the next expiration also adds duration and lowers delta, reducing risk. The primary method for risk reduction is adjusting the untested side of the strangle.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price moves down $10
Target / exitadjust delta by rolling the call down or rolling the put up
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues to move against the position, roll the call down or recenter the trade
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market movement against the position
- Transaction costs
- Slippage in execution
Trade idea
MU earnings trade
The speaker is adjusting the strike prices for a Micron (MU) earnings trade, expecting a move of around 10 to 12%. The speaker believes that the increased volatility today makes earnings trades more favorable, as the pop in volatility can lead to better outcomes. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock will move up by the expected amount, with the strike prices adjusted to reflect this. The risks include the possibility that the stock does not move as expected, which could result in a loss.
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Strategyearnings trade
Assetstock
Expirationtomorrow
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggeradjust everything $100 down
Target / exit100 and 140
Invalidation / stopif the expected move does not materialize
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- 1405 14 15 call
- 975 965 call
Risks- the stock may not move as expected
- volatility may not continue at the current level
- the earnings report may be disappointing
Trade idea
SPACEX Butterfly spread
The speaker suggests that a butterfly spread on SpaceX could be constructed with an expected move of $42. The strategy involves setting the width of the strikes based on the expected move, with the put side being adjusted more aggressively if the trader is bullish. The speaker also notes that the volatility in SpaceX is still relatively high, making the butterfly spread potentially more expensive. The thesis is based on the expected move and the volatility levels, with the potential for profit if the stock moves within the expected range.
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StrategyButterfly spread
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerExpected move of $42
Target / exit42 higher
Invalidation / stopIf the expected move is not realized
SpeakerScott
Risks- Volatility could lead to higher costs
- The expected move may not materialize
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
MU trading vehicle
The speaker views Micron (MU) as a great trading vehicle due to its high volatility and range-bound behavior. The speaker suggests that the market is ignoring risks and may eventually decline significantly, making MU a potential short-term trading opportunity. The speaker also notes that the evaluations of MU and other stocks like SanDisk are considered silly and stupid, indicating a potential overvaluation.
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Strategytrading vehicle
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is in a range-bound state with high volatility.
Target / exit200 to 210
Invalidation / stopMarket breaks out of the range or shows signs of a sustained trend.
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market may not follow the expected pattern.
- Volatility could lead to significant losses if the trade goes against the position.
Trade idea
YEN Sell out-of-the-money puts on futures
To get long yen, the speaker suggests selling out-of-the-money puts on futures. This strategy allows for participation in the upside while limiting downside risk. The speaker emphasizes the importance of selecting the active cycle and staying small due to low liquidity in the yen futures market. The trade is based on the expectation that the yen will appreciate against the dollar, which has been weakened recently.
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StrategySell out-of-the-money puts on futures
Assetcurrency
Expiration35 days
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket direction is expected to be positive
Target / exitMarket moves in the expected direction
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the position
SpeakerTom Stnoff
Risks- Market moves against the position
- Low liquidity in yen futures
- Inability to exit the position if the market moves against the trade
Trade idea
SIL shorting silver ETF
The speaker shorted silver at 52, expecting a significant move to 112 or 113. The move was described as a rare and extreme event, with the speaker noting that it was a multi-standard deviation move. The speaker also discussed the challenges of hedging such a position, noting that gold only hedged 15-20% of the losses.
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Strategyshorting silver ETF
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price at 52
Target / exitsilver price at 112 or 113
Invalidation / stopsilver price moving against the short position
SpeakerRyan
Risks- Large potential losses if the position moves against the short
- Difficulty in hedging such a large position effectively
Trade idea
Micron Buy Micron later in the day
The speaker suggests that Micron is a product of the day and that most traders will be trading it later in the day. This indicates a potential short-term bullish outlook on Micron, possibly due to positive news or market sentiment. The trade idea is based on the speaker's recommendation to trade Micron, suggesting a long position.
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StrategyBuy Micron later in the day
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerLater in the day
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unfavorable news
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea volatility
the implied volatility of SpaceX will settle into around 60
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Strategyvolatility
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort volatility and short premium in SpaceX
Target / exit60
Invalidation / stopif volatility holds near 100%
SpeakerTom Stoff
Risks- calls exploding on sharp rally
Trade idea
RKLB put selling
Rocket Labs is expected to decline, making the put sell strategy viable
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Strategyput selling
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwait for Rocket Labs to come back down a little bit
Target / exit20% return
Invalidation / stopstock price rising above 45
SpeakerTom
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movement
Trade idea
Hood selling puts
The speaker mentions selling 73 puts on Hood, indicating a short position. They also express a preference for buying Hood in the low 70s, suggesting a potential bullish outlook. The speaker's strategy involves selling puts to collect premiums, which is a common options strategy for generating income. The trade idea is based on the speaker's belief that the stock may not move significantly, allowing them to profit from the premium collected.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetstock
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket is at a certain level
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The stock could move beyond the strike price, resulting in a loss if the put is exercised.
Trade idea
Trade idea Wait for options to become available
Retail investors should wait for options to become available after the IPO before participating in trading. This is because there are no shorting or options mechanisms available during the initial phase of an IPO. The best approach is to buy and hope for price appreciation, as there are no other trading mechanisms available. The thesis is based on the discussion that IPOs are difficult to trade for retail investors due to limited access and the lack of shorting or options during the initial phase.
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StrategyWait for options to become available
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWait for options to become available after the IPO
Invalidation / stopNo clear stop or invalidation level mentioned
SpeakerTom and Scott
Risks- High subscription demand may lead to oversubscription
- Limited access to IPO allocations
- Price volatility during the initial phase
Trade idea
ZB volatility selling
The trader sold volatility on ZB when IVR was high and observed a decrease in IVR, resulting in a profit. The strategy involves selling volatility when IVR is high and buying back when it decreases. This approach is effective in tracking changes in implied volatility and can be applied to other assets with similar volatility patterns.
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Strategyvolatility selling
Assetbond
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR is high
Target / exitIVR decreases
Invalidation / stopIVR increases
SpeakerTP
Risks- IVR may increase, leading to losses
- market conditions may change rapidly
- trading platform limitations
Trade idea
NKE selling puts
The speaker discusses selling puts on Nike (NKE) with the intention of profiting from a potential rise in the stock price. The trade was initiated at a price of $43, with the puts sold at $2. The speaker acknowledges that the stock price dropped, resulting in a loss, and suggests that waiting for a better entry point might have been more effective. The thesis is that selling puts can be a viable strategy if the trader is confident in the stock's ability to rise above the strike price before expiration.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
Expiration43 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price at 43
Target / exitstock price at 45
Invalidation / stopstock price drops below 43
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Stock price drops below the strike price
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea vertical_spread
The speaker suggests buying a vertical spread and taking profit at a specific percentage. They also mention the possibility of placing a butterfly spread for a credit, indicating a strategy that involves multiple options legs. The trade idea is based on the expectation of market movement, with a focus on defined risk and limited exposure.
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Strategyvertical_spread
Assetoptions
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerBuy a vertical spread when the market is expected to move in a specific direction
Target / exitTake profit at X percent
Invalidation / stopIf the market moves against the spread, the trade may be adjusted or closed
SpeakerS0001
Risks- Market movement against the spread
- Liquidity issues in the options market
- Regulatory changes affecting the market
Trade idea
ES Put Spread
In a high volatility environment, shorting put spreads on the ES (E-mini S&P 500) can be a profitable strategy. By selling put spreads and widening the spread, traders can capitalize on market rallies while limiting downside risk. This approach is particularly effective when volatility is elevated, as it allows traders to take advantage of market movements without overexposing their positions. The strategy should be adjusted based on market conditions, with a focus on managing risk and taking profits when the market moves in the desired direction.
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StrategyPut Spread
AssetFutures
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigh volatility environment
Target / exitProfit from market rallies
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the short position
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market moves against the short position
- Volatility decreases
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea long diagonal spreads
short-term, long diagonal spreads can be used on unleveraged products
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Strategylong diagonal spreads
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggeron unleveraged products
Target / exitshort-term profit
SpeakerTonyy
Trade idea
Trade idea Zero day put spread in the S&P
Taking profits quickly on strong days can be effective, but traders must be cautious of market reversals.
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StrategyZero day put spread in the S&P
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStrong market conditions
Target / exitProfit from the highs of the day
Invalidation / stopMarket sell-offs or unexpected volatility
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversals
- Unexpected volatility
Trade idea
SPY call spread
high probability profit with a wide spread
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember 18th
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket up
Target / exithigh probability profit
Invalidation / stopmarket moves beyond expected range
SpeakerTony AI
Risks- market moves beyond expected range
Trade idea
Microsoft Sell a call spread with strikes 535 and 545
The trade is based on the expectation that the stock will not move significantly beyond the strike prices
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StrategySell a call spread with strikes 535 and 545
AssetEquity
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price is near all-time highs
Target / exitCollect around $1.10 to $1.15
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly higher or lower
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- If the stock moves beyond the strike prices, the trade could result in a loss
Trade idea
Trade idea calendar spreads
short puts in the yen can be a viable strategy for profiting from volatility
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Strategycalendar spreads
Assetcurrency
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort puts in the yen
Target / exitprofit from volatility
SpeakerTom
Risks- market direction
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Trade idea Counter spreads
Counter spreads are a low-risk strategy that can be used to make a small profit with minimal risk.
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StrategyCounter spreads
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the front month volatility is higher than the back month volatility
Target / exitProfit from the difference in volatility
Invalidation / stopIf the front month volatility is significantly lower than the back month volatility
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility can change rapidly
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
Nvidia Shorting calls on Nvidia
The speaker sold 205 puts and 250 calls on Nvidia, expecting limited price movement. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will not move significantly, allowing the seller to profit from the premium. The speaker plans to cover the position at $1.50 if the price reaches that level, aiming for a 25% return. The trade is considered high-risk due to the potential for significant price movements.
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StrategyShorting calls on Nvidia
AssetEquity
ExpirationFriday
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia closes at 204
Target / exit167
Invalidation / stopIf the price rises above 250
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Significant price movement in either direction
- Failure to cover the position at the planned price
- Market volatility leading to unexpected outcomes
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker suggests maintaining the same strangle or adjusting the strikes up by a buck for SLV, given the stock is up slightly. This trade idea is based on the assumption that the stock will continue to move in a favorable direction, allowing for profit from the strangle. The expected move of $8 is mentioned, indicating a potential for significant price movement. The trade is considered a short-term strategy with a focus on capturing volatility.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expiration215
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock is up small
Target / exitmove the strikes up by a buck
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the trade
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movements
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
Bonds hedge
The speaker is long bonds, having bought them last night and sold them out, but still holding short puts. They consider bonds a good hedge, especially given their recent performance as a market leader. The speaker suggests that bonds will indicate the direction of the market, making them a useful indicator for future market movements.
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Strategyhedge
Assetfixed_income
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerBonds have been the leader for the last couple of days
Target / exitNot specified
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Interest rate changes
- Economic downturn
Trade idea
MSFT Buy on pullbacks
The speaker suggests that Microsoft may present a buying opportunity following a pullback, given the perceived overvaluation and the tendency of investors to repurchase after selling. This implies a potential short-term reversal or consolidation phase.
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StrategyBuy on pullbacks
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPotential pullbacks following overvaluation concerns
Target / exitNot specified
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Overvaluation may persist
- Lack of clear entry point
Trade idea
Gas put selling
The speaker discusses a trade idea involving selling June 250 puts on gas, which is at its lowest level in a long time. The trade has an 88% probability of profit, with a capital requirement of approximately $1,400. The trade is considered a low-risk, high-reward opportunity with a potential return of over 20% within a short time frame. The speaker suggests that this trade is a good example of how to capitalize on a market at its lowest point.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice at or near all-time low
Target / exit350
Invalidation / stopprice moves significantly higher
SpeakerMax
Risks- Price could move significantly higher
- Market volatility could increase
Trade idea
LNG volatility trading
The speaker mentions that natural gas (LNG) has been a poor performer in their portfolio, despite not taking any directional bets. They are short strangles, which have resulted in losses. The speaker suggests that natural gas has been difficult to trade profitably, indicating that the strategy may not be effective in the current market environment. The trade idea is based on the speaker's personal experience with LNG and their observation of its performance.
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Strategyvolatility trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggernatural gas price movements
Invalidation / stopprice movement against the short strangles
SpeakerScott
Risks- Gamma risk from short strangles
- Volatility risk
- Market direction risk
Trade idea
CL pairs trade
The speaker suggests that while crude oil and gold may show divergence, they are not a classic pair with high correlation. Therefore, a pairs trade between CL and GC is not recommended as a reliable hedge. However, if a trader chooses to proceed, they should focus on micro-level trades and be aware of the low correlation and potential for divergence.
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Strategypairs trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerCrude oil near recent highs
Target / exitGold near recent lows
Invalidation / stopHigh correlation between crude oil and gold is required for the trade to be effective
SpeakerScott
Risks- Low correlation between assets
- Market volatility
- Potential for divergence
Trade idea
MU buying an inverse index fund to profit from a decline in the market
The speaker discusses buying an inverse index fund (MU) as a cheaper alternative to shorting an $800 stock. The speaker believes that the market is overvalued and that a decline is imminent, making the inverse fund a viable investment. The speaker also mentions that they have bought the fund at around 1850 and 1705, indicating a belief in the market's potential for a decline.
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Strategybuying an inverse index fund to profit from a decline in the market
Assetinverse index fund
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket decline
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further market decline
- Liquidity issues with inverse funds
Trade idea
SPX scalping
The speaker's trade idea involves buying the dip on the S&P during high volatility. The strategy is based on identifying short-term price dips and capitalizing on them. The speaker's example involved buying the S&P at a dip of around 41 and scalping 10 points. This approach is effective in volatile markets where prices fluctuate rapidly, allowing traders to profit from short-term movements.
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Strategyscalping
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIdentify short-term price dips in volatile markets
Target / exit10 points
Invalidation / stopPrice drops below the entry point or market conditions change
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Potential for losses if the dip is not correctly identified
Trade idea
silver shorting silver based on its recent price movement
The speaker sold silver above $76 in the morning, anticipating a price drop. The trade is based on the expectation that silver would move lower, with a target at $73. The invalidation level is set at $78, indicating that if silver rises above this level, the trade would be considered invalid. The trade is part of a broader strategy involving gold and silver pairs, with the speaker noting that the trade is moving all over the place due to the volatility of silver.
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Strategyshorting silver based on its recent price movement
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver traded above $76
Target / exitsilver price drops to $73
Invalidation / stopsilver price rises above $78
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Price could move against the trade if silver rises instead of falling
- Volatility could lead to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
gold buying at 4417-4420 range
The speaker bought gold at 4417-4420, indicating a bullish outlook on gold. The speaker's action is based on the recent price movements and the market's reaction to the moves in gold and silver. The trade idea is to capitalize on the upward trend in gold, with the entry point set at the mentioned range. The speaker's strategy is to participate in the market's short-term movements, as they have made multiple trades in the morning.
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Strategybuying at 4417-4420 range
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice above 4417-4420 range
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerBraard
Risks- Market volatility
- Price reversal
- Execution risk
Trade idea
micro silver futures rolling out the position
The speaker is short Jan 66 calls for micro silver futures, which has experienced a parabolic move. The speaker is uncertain about whether to close, hold, roll out, or add a stop loss. The speaker suggests rolling out the position due to the high premium and the potential for a reversal. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of managing multiple positions and not letting a single trade dictate the entire portfolio.
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Strategyrolling out the position
Assetfutures
ExpirationJan
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort Jan 66 calls
Target / exitreversal to 66 or 60
Invalidation / stopstop at 87
SpeakerTom
Risks- The trade could result in significant losses if the price continues to rise
- The high premium may not be justified if the price does not reverse
- The market conditions could change rapidly, affecting the trade's outcome
Trade idea
ES/NQ pairs trading
Pairs trading between ES and NQ is a viable strategy due to their high correlation. The spread between these two contracts is likely to mean revert, providing opportunities for profit. Start with microcontracts and adjust the ratio based on market conditions. The key is to identify subjective extremes in the spread and start with small positions before moving to larger contracts.
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Strategypairs trading
Assetfutures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerspread between ES and NQ is at an extreme
Target / exitmean reversion of the spread
Invalidation / stopspread continues to move away from the extreme
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market volatility
- incorrect spread identification
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea Market Talk
The speaker discusses market conditions with a focus on liquidity and volume, noting that the NASDAQ is showing some strength but with caution due to light liquidity. The speaker also mentions that positions are generally small, and the market is in a period of low volume. The speaker advises caution in such conditions, suggesting that traders should be careful with their positions due to the thin market environment.
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StrategyMarket Talk
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket volatility and liquidity conditions
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopLight liquidity and thin markets may lead to increased risk
SpeakerMark
Risks- Increased risk due to low liquidity
- Potential for larger price swings in thin markets
Trade idea
NDX short premium
The speaker is considering taking a short premium position in the Nasdaq (NDX) due to its proximity to a 52-week high. The speaker is cautious about a potential rally and plans to start shorting on Friday. The speaker also mentions that the short premium play has worked out nicely and is considering covering some short premium. The speaker is aware of the IV ranks and plans to take a little bit of short premium here, even though the IV ranks are still above 30.
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Strategyshort premium
Assetindex
ExpirationApril
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNasdaq near 52-week high
Target / exit26,000
Invalidation / stopMarket rally or significant volatility
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market rally
- Significant volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
natural_gas strangle
The speaker is long strangles on natural gas, indicating a bullish outlook. They mention experiencing significant daily moves (10% to 50%) and are considering rolling positions or taking a loss. The strategy involves profiting from volatility, with the speaker acknowledging the risks of large moves and the need for a therapist due to the stress involved.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket move
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Large price swings
- Volatility risk
- Emotional stress from high-risk trades
Trade idea
gold mean reversion
The speaker believes that gold is overbought and may correct from its current level of $4,900. They suggest that the market may be in a state of extreme price, which could lead to a mean reversion. The speaker also mentions that they are short silver and long gold as a hedge, indicating a strategic position based on the relative performance of the two metals.
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Strategymean reversion
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggergold at $4,900
Target / exitgold at $4,650
Invalidation / stopgold at $5,000
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Opinions are subjective and not guaranteed to be accurate
Trade idea
MO shorting a parabolic stock
The speaker is shorting MO (Microsoft) due to its recent parabolic move, which has been described as excessive. The speaker believes the stock is overbought and expects a correction. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the stock's recent performance is unsustainable and that the market will correct the overvaluation.
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Strategyshorting a parabolic stock
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock rallies up today
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Potential for continued upward movement
- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
yen range-bound trading
The yen has been range-bound between 63 and 67 for three years, making it an ideal candidate for a sell puts strategy. The speaker has successfully used this strategy for two consecutive years, leveraging the high volatility and the predictable range. The strategy is based on the assumption that the market will remain within this range, allowing the seller of puts to collect premiums. The invalidation level is if the yen breaks out of the range, which would indicate a shift in market dynamics.
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Strategyrange-bound trading
Assetcurrency
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket range-bound between 63 and 67
Target / exitcollect premium from put sales
Invalidation / stopmarket breaks out of the range
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility could increase
- Range could break
- Premiums may not cover potential losses
Trade idea
Trade idea High IVR trades
When the VIX is elevated, it is rare to find low IVR across the board. High IVR is typically associated with elevated VIX, and low IVR is more common in post-earnings stocks. This suggests a strong correlation between market volatility (VIX) and implied volatility (IVR). Therefore, when the VIX is elevated, it is advisable to stick with high IVR trades. The rationale is that high IVR indicates higher expected volatility, which aligns with the elevated VIX. The invalidation would be if IVR is low despite a high VIX, which is rare. The time horizon is short-term, as the correlation may not hold in all market regimes or during extreme volatility events.
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StrategyHigh IVR trades
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerElevated VIX
Invalidation / stopLow IVR
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility may change rapidly
- IVR may not remain high despite elevated VIX
Trade idea
ZB sell bond puts
The speaker suggests that the bond market is signaling a potential policy shift, such as a Trump put, and that the yield curve is wide, indicating a potential for further movement in the market. The speaker proposes selling bond puts as a trade, with a target of 114 and a stop at the low 114s. The trade is based on the idea that the bond market is acting as a 'bond vigilante' pushing yields down in anticipation of policy changes.
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Strategysell bond puts
Assetbond
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the bond market is signaling a potential policy shift, such as a Trump put, and the yield curve is wide
Target / exit114
Invalidation / stopif the bond market does not signal a policy shift or if the yield curve narrows
SpeakerRyan
Risks- The trade is speculative and based on market sentiment rather than concrete data.
- The bond market may not signal a policy shift, leading to a loss on the trade.
- The yield curve may narrow, reducing the potential for a trade outcome.
Trade idea
SPX volatility-based
The speaker believes that the VIX is approaching 30, which could lead to significant market volatility. The inverse relationship between crude oil and the S&P index is highlighted as a key factor to monitor. The speaker suggests that the market may experience wild swings if the VIX reaches 30, and that traders should be cautious and prepared for increased volatility. The speaker also mentions that triple witching next week could provide trading opportunities, but the market is expected to be volatile.
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Strategyvolatility-based
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerVIX approaching 30
Target / exitVIX reaching 30
Invalidation / stopVIX dropping below 25
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to significant losses
- The inverse relationship may not hold consistently
- The speaker's personal position is not disclosed
Trade idea
Trade idea short-term trades
short-term trades are key for leverage ETFs
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Strategyshort-term trades
Assetleverage ETFs
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort-term trades
SpeakerTom
Trade idea
Trade idea naked put
taking profits at 30% rather than waiting for 50%
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Strategynaked put
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif a stock is lower and the trader is bullish on the market
Target / exit30% profit within 3-4 days
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves against the trader's position
SpeakerConstantine
Risks- the stock could move against the trader's position
- the trader could lose money if the stock moves against the position
Trade idea
AAPL put spread
contrarian play
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Strategyput spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price down 235
Target / exit235
Invalidation / stopstock price up
Speakerunknown
Structure / legs- September 295 put
- September 285 put
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected stock price movement
Trade idea
AAPL put spread
Apple's weakness after a downgrade could be exploited with a put spread
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Strategyput spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerApple going lower
Target / exit266
Invalidation / stopmarket going higher
SpeakerScott
Risks- market reversal
- volatility changes
Trade idea
NASDAQ scalping
The speaker scalped NASDAQ futures by buying at lower levels, indicating a short-term bullish bias. They mentioned buying NASDAQ futures down 450 last night and noted that the market was trading lower, suggesting a potential for short-term gains. The speaker also mentioned buying in 10% increments, indicating a cautious approach to position sizing.
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Strategyscalping
Assetfutures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbuying at lower levels
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market reversal
- Slippage in fast-moving markets
- Inability to exit at desired levels
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL sell premium
The speaker suggests that crude oil is rangebound and advises selling premium if necessary. They believe the price is unlikely to hold above 74 and prefer being at 67. They are not willing to go short at 74 but would consider selling premium. If the price approaches 80, they would be more open to selling short. The trade idea is to sell premium in the current range, with a target of 77 to 80 and an invalidation level at 74.
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Strategysell premium
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice above 74
Target / exit77 to 80
Invalidation / stopprice drops below 74
Speakerspeaker
Risks- price drops below 74
- volatility increases
- market sentiment shifts
Trade idea
PLTR strangle
The speaker suggests widening the strike range of a strangle position in PLTR from 130-150 to 100-180 to capture more call skew and improve comfort during volatility expansion. This adjustment is based on the observation that the current position is underperforming due to the puts moving in the money. The strategy assumes that volatility will continue to expand, which is supported by recent market conditions. The risk is that volatility may contract, leading to a loss.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility expansion
Target / exit100-180 strike range
Invalidation / stopvolatility contraction
SpeakerTony
Risks- volatility contraction
- premium costs
Trade idea
Dell selling calls and puts
The speaker believes that the IBR being above 100 indicates a potential trade opportunity for Dell. By selling 600 calls and 300 puts for August, the speaker anticipates a price range that could result in a profit of five to six bucks. The strategy is based on the assumption that the IBR will move above 100 and that the stock will trade within the predicted range.
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Strategyselling calls and puts
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIBR above 100
Target / exitfive to six bucks
Invalidation / stopIf the IBR remains below 100 or if the stock price moves outside the predicted range
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility affecting the stock price
- Incorrect interpretation of the IBR
- Potential for the stock to move outside the predicted range
Trade idea
soybeans strangle
The speaker suggests selling a 1290/1120 strangle on soybeans for a credit of $712. This is a delta-neutral trade with a high IVR of 93, indicating a potential for significant returns. The trade is considered attractive due to the high implied volatility and the potential for a 75% pop. The speaker also mentions that this trade is being considered alongside a Dell trade due to the high IVR observed in soybeans.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price level
Target / exitcredit of $712
Invalidation / stopif the price moves beyond the strangle range
SpeakerThe bat
Structure / legs- sell 1290 call
- sell 1120 put
Risks- volatility risk
- time decay
- market movement beyond the strangle range
Trade idea
SPACEX put
The speaker recommends selling 90 puts on SpaceX with a 94% probability of profit and an expected move of $32. The trade offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, with the stock trading at $150 and the puts priced at $125-$135. The speaker emphasizes that this is a high-probability trade with a significant return on capital, even though it's not guaranteed to work out. The speaker also notes that the IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) may not be reliable for new offerings, but the IVX (Implied Volatility Index) is more trustworthy.
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Strategyput
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock trading at $150
Target / exit125-135
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- The trade is not guaranteed to work out
- The IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) may not be reliable for new offerings
- The expected move may not materialize as anticipated
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker is short strangles on SLV, with the put at 51.48 and the call at 52.49. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock is on its lows and will not move significantly. The speaker mentions that the trade is expected to have a 64% pop and an IVR of 31. The trade is considered a good opportunity due to the current market conditions and the potential for a profit.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock is on its lows
Target / exit1.00
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerTony
Structure / legs- short put at 51.48
- short call at 52.49
Risks- Significant market movement against the trade
- Time decay reducing the value of the options
Trade idea
IWM premium selling
The speaker has been short premium in IWM throughout the year, but it has not been a good trade so far. The speaker suggests that IWM has been the worst performer among major indices, and the strategy is to collect premium by selling calls. The thesis is that the market rally may continue, and IWM could be a good candidate for premium selling if it continues to underperform.
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Strategypremium selling
Assetindex
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket rally
Target / exitpremium collection
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues to underperform
SpeakerSheridan
Risks- Market downturn
- Underperformance of IWM
- Volatility in the market
Trade idea
ZN selling out-of-the-money puts
The speaker is selling out-of-the-money puts on ZN (109 or 108.5) and buying a call spread on 109-110, based on low implied volatility and a directional bias. The trade is expected to profit from the directional movement of the bond market, with a focus on short-term expiration. The strategy is based on the speaker's default approach of using delta ranges and expiration periods.
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Strategyselling out-of-the-money puts
Assetbond
Expiration45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerimplied volatility is low
Target / exitprofit from directional movement
Invalidation / stopif the market moves against the directional bias
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- put on 109 or 108.5
- call spread on 109-110
Risks- Market moves against the directional bias
- Implied volatility increases
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
Bonds put selling
The speaker is shorting the 110 puts on bonds, which are trading around 58. They sold them at 54 and 50, indicating a belief that the market will not move significantly against their short position. The speaker notes that bonds are down 24 ticks, suggesting a potential for the put positions to profit if the market continues to decline. However, the risk of the market moving against the short position is a key consideration.
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Strategyput selling
Assetfixed_income
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket down 24 ticks
Target / exit54 and 50
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the short position
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- increased volatility
- unexpected economic events
Trade idea
ZB selling puts
The trader is selling puts on ZB (30-year Treasury bonds) with an August expiration, targeting a strike price of 110. The trade is considered a high probability trade with a break-even point at 109. The trader believes that the market is unlikely to reach the break-even level due to the current economic environment. The trade is designed to collect a premium while limiting downside risk. The trader also mentions similar strategies for ZN (10-year Treasury notes), selling puts at a strike price of 108.5 with a break-even point at 108.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetbond
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price around 110 handle
Target / exitbreak-even at 109
Invalidation / stopif bonds fall below 109
SpeakerLisa
Structure / legs- August expiration
- strike price of 110
- premium collected
Risks- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Potential for unexpected volatility
- Need for accurate market analysis
Trade idea
SPX selling zero-day options and buying long wings
The speaker suggests that selling zero-day options and buying long wings can be a strategy for managing risk in the SPX. They note that adjustments are necessary due to SPX fluctuations, and the approach involves frequent recentering of long wings. The strategy is based on the idea that frequent adjustments can help capture volatility while managing risk.
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Strategyselling zero-day options and buying long wings
Assetindex
Expiration3 weeks
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdaily trading with frequent adjustments
Target / exitrecentering long wings based on SPX fluctuations
Invalidation / stopadjustments based on SPX movements
SpeakerSol
Structure / legs- zero-day short
- long wings (3 weeks out)
Risks- volatility in SPX
- need for frequent adjustments
- potential for large losses if SPX moves against the position
Trade idea
SPX strangle
The strategy involves selling a zero-day strangle and buying long wings at the 30-day expected move. Adjustments are only necessary on days with significant price movements (over 1/2%). The speaker emphasizes that the difference in results between staying in the zeros or adjusting is minimal, and the strategy is based on extensive backtesting over 2 years.
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Strategystrangle
Assetindex
Expirationzero-day
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / trigger30-day expected move levels
Target / exitprofit from volatility compression
Invalidation / stopsignificant price movements (over 1/2%)
SpeakerRaphael
Structure / legs- sell zero-day strangle
- buy long wings at 30-day expected move
Risks- Significant price movements may require adjustments
- Volatility may not compress as expected
- Market conditions may change
Trade idea
Trade idea selling options
The speaker expresses a strong interest in selling options, particularly weekly futures options, as a potential full-time income source. They mention being a 'numbers guy' and being inspired by YouTube gurus who have transitioned to full-time trading. The speaker is torn between their current job and pursuing options trading full-time, but ultimately encourages taking the risk and following one's passion. The idea is based on the speaker's personal desire and belief in the viability of options trading as a sustainable income source.
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Strategyselling options
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading options with a 45-day expiration
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Financial risk due to potential losses in options trading
- Emotional risk of leaving a stable job for an uncertain income source
- Market risk due to the volatility of options trading
Trade idea
SPX volatility-based
The speaker mentions selling S&P futures (SPX) when the VIX indicates higher volatility but the market does not move as expected. This suggests a strategy of shorting the index when volatility signals are misleading, with the expectation that the market will not follow the volatility trend. The speaker also notes that they held NASDAQ futures (QQQ) and adjusted their positions based on market conditions, indicating a dynamic approach to managing risk.
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Strategyvolatility-based
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigher volatility with lower actual market movement
Target / exitUncertain, based on market conditions
Invalidation / stopMarket movement exceeding volatility signals
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market movement exceeding volatility signals
- Incorrect interpretation of volatility signals
- Liquidity issues in futures markets
Trade idea
ETHA volatility trading
The speaker has traded ETHA extensively and notes its high volatility, with the market typically 10 cents wide. They mention that trades can be filled one or two cents off mid-price. The speaker has held a position in ETHA since its inception and suggests it as a viable option for trading Ethereum.
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Strategyvolatility trading
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility environment
Target / exitmid-price + 2 cents
Invalidation / stoploss of 10 cents
SpeakerScott
Risks- high volatility
- slippage
- market gaps
Trade idea
Trade idea short call verticals
short call verticals can be used to add income to a bullish portfolio
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Strategyshort call verticals
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbullish on the underlying asset
Target / exitcapture premium while capping upside risk
Invalidation / stopif the underlying moves against the position
Speakerunknown
Risks- limited downside protection
- capped upside potential
Trade idea
Trade idea covered call
the market has come back and forth, making it a great selling opportunity
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Strategycovered call
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is in a two-sided market
Target / exitsell some stuff when the market is a great selling opportunity
Invalidation / stopif the market rallies back up again, sell them again
Speakerunknown
Risks- market rally
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Trade idea covered calls
the market is expected to correct
View full notes
Strategycovered calls
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the market is expected to correct
Target / exitreduce delta to 50 or 70
Invalidation / stopif the market moves significantly against the position
Speakerunknown
Risks- loss of potential gains if the stock price rises significantly
Trade idea
AAPL put diagonal
bearish on Apple
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Strategyput diagonal
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price lower
Target / exitrisk one to make one
Invalidation / stopvolatility collapse in front month
SpeakerTony
Structure / legs- August 21st 320 put
- August 3rd 310 put
Risks- volatility collapse
- unexpected stock movement
Trade idea
IVR strangle
strangle strategy with specific strike prices and expiration date
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Strategystrangle
Assetcurrency
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock's up today
Target / exitmax profit of $39
Invalidation / stopstock's movement
Speakerunknown
Risks- stock's movement
- market volatility
Trade idea
INTC strangle
Intel's high IVR and liquidity make it an attractive candidate for a strangle trade. The high IVR suggests potential for significant price movement, while liquidity ensures that the trade can be executed efficiently. The trade is skewed towards calls and puts based on the trader's risk preference, with the potential for a 80% pop. The trade is considered high probability due to the high IVR and liquidity.
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
Expirationmonthlies
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIntel has the highest IVR on the board
Target / exitpop of just about 80%
Invalidation / stopIf the market moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- 170 87 and 1/2 strangle for 625
- 170 87 and 1/2 strangle for 625
Risks- Outlier risk
- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
ROBINHOOD put selling
The speaker sold 74 puts against Robinhood, expecting the stock to trade within a certain range. However, the stock opened lower than expected, indicating a potential downside surprise. The trade's validity depends on the stock's movement relative to the strike price. The speaker acknowledges the risk of paying for the move, highlighting the need for careful risk management in such trades.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
Expirationunknown
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price around 72.5
Target / exitunknown
Invalidation / stopstock price moving against the trade
SpeakerTom
Risks- downside surprises
- volatility
- unexpected market movements
Trade idea
META strangle
The speaker is short a skewed strangle on oil, expecting a $10 or $15 drop before a $10 rise. The trade is based on the belief that the market is long oil, and the speaker is taking a short position to capitalize on potential downside. The trade is considered low risk due to the skewed strangle structure, which limits upside risk while capturing potential downside.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket opens
Target / exitOil price drops $10 or $15
Invalidation / stopIf oil price rises $10
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- short calls with twice the delta of puts
Risks- Oil price rises unexpectedly
- Volatility decreases, reducing the effectiveness of the strangle
Trade idea
Nasdaq selling puts
The speaker is considering selling puts on the Nasdaq index, particularly on large tech stocks like Meta, Microsoft, and Google, as a hedge against their existing short position. However, they express reluctance due to the potential risk of losing money if the market moves against their position. The speaker acknowledges that selling puts is typically done on stocks one is willing to own, but they are not interested in owning these stocks at current levels.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerearnings reports
Invalidation / stopmarket movement against the short position
SpeakerScott
Risks- loss if the market moves against the short position
- potential for large losses if the stock price drops significantly
Trade idea
NASDAQ sell premium
A significant market decline, such as a 1,600 handle drop in the NASDAQ, can signal the end of a bullish trend. This creates an opportunity for short positions due to the high implied volatility and potential for price changes in stocks. The strategy involves selling premium to capitalize on the expected market consolidation or reversal.
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Strategysell premium
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerSignificant market decline
Target / exitPrice reversal or consolidation
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or continued bullish trend
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility not materializing
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Marll strangle
The speaker proposed a wide strangle on Marll due to the high IVR of 102. The strategy was designed to capitalize on the volatility without being exposed to the upward bias of the market. The speaker noted that the stock had a significant move on Friday and was up 12% on the day of the trade. The strangle was considered a neutral strategy that could benefit from the high volatility, but the speaker warned that the market could 'run over' the position if it moved against the trade.
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR of 102
Target / exitprofit from volatility
Invalidation / stopmarket moving against the position
Speakerunknown
Risks- market moving against the position
- volatility decreasing
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
Silver sell on the open
The speaker suggests that silver had a significant sell-off and a small bounce back, but is now showing no movement. The speaker believes that the price will break back down, and proposes selling on the open. The speaker also mentions that they would love to go short on the open, but acknowledges that it is not possible. The speaker's reasoning is based on the belief that the price will continue to decline, and that the small float of the stock will lead to significant price movements.
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Strategysell on the open
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersell on the open
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- The price may not break back down as expected
- The small float may not lead to significant price movements
- The speaker's personal experience may not be universally applicable
Trade idea
SPX options wheeling
The trader uses the premium from a mag 10 wheeling strategy on SPX to roll into short-dated options. The strategy involves balancing between zero-dated and one-day options, with a focus on the mathematical aspects of SPX. The trader acknowledges that the 45-day SPX options caused issues in April, but the overall approach remains effective. The trader views the VIX move as an opportunity for buying dips, with the VIX at 1835 indicating a potential range-bound market.
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Strategyoptions wheeling
Assetindex
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerpremium from wheeling strategy
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopmarket move against the position
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- short-dated options
- zero-dated options
Risks- Market volatility
- inability to exit positions during sharp moves
- changes in market regime
Trade idea
VXX calendar and diagonal spreads
The speaker suggests that VXX is a better alternative to VIX for calendar and diagonal strategies due to its more manageable risk profile. They emphasize that VIX calendars can lead to large credits during periods of extreme volatility, which can be detrimental to retail traders. VXX is recommended as it allows for similar strategies without the same level of risk. The thesis is that traders should avoid VIX calendars and instead use VXX for similar strategies, especially when volatility is expected to remain stable.
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Strategycalendar and diagonal spreads
Assetvolatility
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen volatility is expected to remain stable
Target / exitprofit from the decay of time value
Invalidation / stopif volatility spikes or the underlying index moves significantly
SpeakerRon
Structure / legs- calendar spread
- diagonal spread
Risks- volatility spikes
- underlying index movement
- market regime changes
Trade idea
yen put-selling
The speaker suggests selling puts on the yen as it has become cheap, implying a potential for upward movement or a desire to capitalize on the undervaluation. The trade is based on the belief that the yen may rebound or stabilize, allowing the seller to profit from the premium collected. The speaker also mentions selling puts on bonds at a specific strike price, suggesting a similar strategy of profiting from potential price movements.
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Strategyput-selling
Assetcurrency
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the yen is undervalued
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility could lead to losses if the yen declines sharply
- The trade is speculative and requires careful monitoring of market conditions
Trade idea
Trade idea diagonal spreads
short-dated plays are good in ETFs
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Strategydiagonal spreads
Assetoptions
Expirationclosest to 45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerlow volatility environment
Target / exitdirectional
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea
Trade idea calendar spreads
low volatility can be exploited with calendar spreads
View full notes
Strategycalendar spreads
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerlow volatility
SpeakerRon
Trade idea
Trade idea Short squeeze on a meme stock
A short squeeze on a meme stock like Wendy's could be a viable trade if the stock drops under eight bucks at seven and a half.
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StrategyShort squeeze on a meme stock
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf the stock drops under eight bucks at seven and a half
Target / exitPotential short squeeze
Invalidation / stopIf the stock doesn't drop under eight bucks
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- The short squeeze may not materialize
- The stock could continue to decline
Trade idea
FLYYQ shorting a pink sheet stock
The speaker expresses a strong aversion to trading the stock of FLYYQ, a pink sheet stock, due to its low price and potential volatility. They suggest that it is an interesting dilemma for the government, but they do not propose a specific trade action. The speaker's uncertainty about the stock's price and the potential for a price increase indicates a cautious approach to trading this stock.
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Strategyshorting a pink sheet stock
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price below a dollar
Target / exitpotential price increase
Invalidation / stopprice increase above a certain level
Speakerspeaker
Risks- high volatility
- low liquidity
- regulatory risks
Trade idea
silver short-term trading
The speaker executed a short-term trading strategy on silver, selling at higher price levels and buying at lower ones. They emphasized the importance of timing and market conditions, indicating that traders should be vigilant about price movements and adjust their positions accordingly. The strategy involves active monitoring and quick decision-making to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations.
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Strategyshort-term trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice reaches a specific level (e.g., 93)
Target / exitPrice drops to a lower level (e.g., 87)
Invalidation / stopPrice moves against the trade (e.g., rises above 93)
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Timing errors
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Netflix naked put
The speaker suggests that the naked put strategy on Netflix is preferable to a short put spread due to the potential for higher returns and the ability to manage risk through adjustments. The trade involves selling a naked put at the 75 strike with a credit of 188, aiming for a stock price increase to 76. The risk is limited to the difference between the strike price and the stock price if it drops below 73. The speaker emphasizes the importance of adjustments and the cost of spreads in decision-making.
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Strategynaked put
Assetstock
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price at 75
Target / exitstock price at 76
Invalidation / stopstock price drops below 73
SpeakerBrad
Risks- Potential for unlimited downside if the stock price drops significantly
- Need for active management and adjustments
- Higher risk compared to spreads
Trade idea
COINBASE ratio spread
The speaker suggests selling the July 13 puts at 70 for Coinbase as a trade idea. The trade is based on the assumption that the market is overbought and the potential reward is equal to the potential risk. The trade is considered a balanced play due to the equal risk and reward. The speaker also mentions that the trade is still doable and that the market is expected to move in the expected direction.
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Strategyratio spread
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly 13
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is overbought
Target / exitMarket moves down to 70
Invalidation / stopMarket moves up or the trade is closed
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market moves up
- Market moves in the opposite direction
- The trade is not suitable for long-term holding
Trade idea
Trade idea selling puts
selling puts in a stock you want to own but don't want to take ownership of
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Strategyselling puts
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the puts get to a 50, 60 delta
Target / exitroll them to the next month
Invalidation / stopif the trader wants to avoid owning the stock
Speakerunknown
Risks- assignment risk
- premium decay risk
Trade idea
Trade idea put spread
selling a put spread was the perfect call
View full notes
Strategyput spread
ExpirationSep
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerselling a put spread
Target / exitcredit
Invalidation / stopmarket movement
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea
NFLX Put selling
The speaker sold put options on Netflix (NFLX) with a strike price around 90, expecting the price to remain above that level. The rationale is based on the belief that the stock is overpriced and that the recent earnings report, while positive, may not justify the current price. The trade idea is to profit from a potential decline in the stock price, with the put options acting as a hedge against downward movement.
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StrategyPut selling
AssetEquity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice above 93.5
Target / exitPrice below 90
Invalidation / stopPrice above 95
SpeakerSol
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected earnings report
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CAR call spread
The speaker is long a call spread on CAR (Avis), and the stock has been moving higher. The speaker re-centered their position after the stock's upward movement, indicating a strategy to adjust the trade based on market conditions. The trade idea involves managing a long call spread in a rising market, with the goal of re-centering the position to capture potential gains while managing risk.
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price movement upwards
Target / exitre-centered position after stock movement
Invalidation / stopif stock price does not move upwards
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility
- Inadequate position sizing
Trade idea
CAR Rolling both sides up to take profit
The speaker discusses a long call spread on CAR, which has experienced a significant upward move. The strategy involves rolling both sides up to take profit, as the stock's movement is unpredictable. The speaker suggests taking profits at a specific level and moving on, emphasizing the importance of defined profitability and limited risk. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will continue to move higher, but the speaker also acknowledges that the stock may eventually revert to a more reasonable price range.
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StrategyRolling both sides up to take profit
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock is moving higher with a defined risk position
Target / exitTake profits at a predetermined level
Invalidation / stopIf the stock reverses or volatility increases significantly
SpeakerArthur
Risks- Volatility can reduce profitability
- Market reversal may lead to losses
Trade idea
NASDAQ sell now
The speaker suggests that every rally is a sell now, implying a short-term bearish outlook. The current levels are described as an interesting spot to risk a little to make a lot, but the speaker also acknowledges the risk of a small gain. The reasoning is based on the idea that the market is at levels of complacency and leverage, which may lead to a sudden shift once external factors change.
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Strategysell now
Assetequity_index
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent levels
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market may continue to rally, leading to losses on a short position.
- The speaker's view is speculative and not based on concrete data or models.
Trade idea
SPX short puts
The speaker suggests that if the market is not expected to continue breaking down, selling puts on the SPX is a viable strategy to capture premium. This is based on the idea that the market may rally, and the puts would be profitable if the market moves against the short position. However, the strategy is invalid if the market continues to decline, as the puts would be in the money and result in losses. The speaker also mentions that selling calls can be an alternative strategy, but the calls are more risky as they can be 'killed' if the market rallies.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket is not expected to continue breaking down
Target / exitpremium capture
Invalidation / stopmarket continues to break down
SpeakerTom
Risks- market continues to break down
- premium erosion
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
IBM range trading
The speaker is considering shorting IBM as it approaches the lower end of its range. The reasoning is that the market could rebound, but the speaker is cautious and is only nibbling on small positions. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the price will not break below the lower end of the range, making it a short-term range trading opportunity.
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Strategyrange trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice approaching the lower end of the range
Target / exitprice rebounding to the upper end of the range
Invalidation / stopprice breaking below the lower end of the range
SpeakerRyan
Risks- price breaking below the lower end of the range
- unexpected market volatility
Trade idea
SPX vertical_spreads
Trading vertical spreads on SPX can offer tax advantages under Section 1256, which allows for lower tax rates on long-term gains. This strategy is suitable for traders looking to capitalize on market volatility while minimizing tax liability. The cash-settled nature of SPX also provides flexibility in managing positions, as traders do not need to cover out-of-the-money positions at expiration.
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Strategyvertical_spreads
Assetindex
Expirationnone
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility or anticipated price movement
Target / exitprofit from price movement within the spread
Invalidation / stoploss if price moves beyond the spread
Speakeranonymous
Risks- market direction against the trade
- slippage or liquidity issues
- tax implications if not properly managed
Trade idea
oil selling a call option
The trade idea involves selling a call option on oil with the expectation that the price will remain below the strike price, allowing the seller to keep the premium as profit. The strategy is based on the assumption that the market will not move significantly above the strike price within the time frame of the option. This approach is suitable for a short-term horizon and requires monitoring the price movements of oil to ensure the trade remains valid.
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Strategyselling a call option
Assetcommodity
Expirationnext Wednesday the 11th
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerselling a call option on oil
Target / exitprofit from the premium if the price remains below the strike price
Invalidation / stoploss if the price rises above the strike price
SpeakerMark
Structure / legs- 100 call for next Wednesday the 11th
Risks- loss if the price of oil rises above the strike price
- market volatility could impact the outcome
Trade idea
Trade idea Stay small and avoid chasing trades
The speaker suggests that during days of high volatility and liquidity, traders should avoid chasing trades and instead let the market come to them. They emphasize the importance of keeping positions small to manage risk effectively. This approach is suitable for traders looking to capitalize on potential price movements without overexposing themselves to risk.
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StrategyStay small and avoid chasing trades
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigh liquidity and volatility
Invalidation / stopSignificant price movement or market closure
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market closure
- Unexpected news events
- Liquidity drying up
Trade idea
Trade idea call spread or broken wing butterfly
The speaker suggests avoiding buying premium (calls or puts) when implied volatility is expensive, especially before earnings. Instead, they recommend using strategies like a call spread or a broken wing butterfly to limit risk while still participating in potential upside. This is particularly relevant for assets like Meta, where the speaker acknowledges the potential for earnings beats but is cautious about high volatility.
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Strategycall spread or broken wing butterfly
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen implied volatility is expensive and earnings are approaching
Target / exitlimited upside with defined risk
Invalidation / stopif volatility remains high or earnings disappoint
Speakerspeaker
Risks- High volatility could lead to losses if the market moves against the position
- Earnings could disappoint, leading to a drop in the underlying asset
Trade idea
Baba selling puts
The speaker is short puts on Alibaba (Baba) and Baidu, believing that the stocks may rebound from their current undervalued state. The strategy involves selling puts to collect premium, with the potential to own the stock if the price drops below the strike price. The speaker acknowledges the risk of the stock continuing to decline and the need for a long-term commitment.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the stock is undervalued
Target / exitthe strike price of the put
Invalidation / stopif the stock price rises above the strike price
SpeakerTony Battista
Risks- The stock could continue to decline, resulting in a loss if the put is exercised. The speaker also notes that being locked into a long position can be risky if the market turns against the position.
Trade idea
NVDA synthetic strangle
The synthetic strangle is a strategy that allows the trader to collect premium while limiting risk. The trader is bullish on Nvidia and believes that the stock will rally, which would make the put side of the trade profitable. The call spread is expected to be worth around $7 if the stock rallies to $200-$215. The trader is willing to take a risk to the downside if the stock moves significantly against the position.
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Strategysynthetic strangle
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia is trading around $194
Target / exitCollecting $3.40 to $15 bucks or more
Invalidation / stopIf the put side of the trade is not trading for a buck or two, the trade may not be profitable
SpeakerBat
Structure / legs- Sell 20/15 call spread
- Sell August put
Risks- Risk to the downside if the stock moves significantly against the position
- Risk of the put side of the trade not being profitable
- Risk of the call spread not being worth the expected amount
Trade idea
ServiceNow put spread
The speaker suggests adjusting the put spread to collect a credit above $5 while keeping the position neutral to bullish. The trade is based on the idea that the stock may not move significantly in either direction, allowing the trader to profit from the premium collected. The speaker also mentions that the trade is equivalent to holding 20 shares of the stock.
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Strategyput spread
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price at $91
Target / exitcredit above $5
Invalidation / stopif the stock price moves significantly against the position
SpeakerPhil
Structure / legs- buy puts at 89 or 90
- sell puts at 92 or 93
Risks- The stock could move against the position, resulting in a loss
- The credit collected may not be sufficient to offset potential losses
Trade idea
SAN Strangle
The speaker is selling strangles on SanDisk (SAN) with a short-term horizon. The strategy involves selling both a put and a call option, with the put having a strike price of $6 or $7 and the call having a strike price of $20. The target is for the price to drop to the put strike price, while the invalidation is if the price rises above the call strike price. The speaker is confident in the short-term volatility of the stock, expecting a price drop.
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StrategyStrangle
AssetEquity
ExpirationN/A
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket price above strike price
Target / exitPrice drops to $6 or $7
Invalidation / stopPrice rises above $20
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Price rises above $20
- Volatility decreases
- Market conditions change
Trade idea
MSTR short-term
The speaker expresses strong skepticism about MicroStrategy (MSTR) and suggests it is a 'death trade' due to its single point of failure and poor performance. The speaker believes the stock is likely to go bankrupt or continue declining, and that no one has made money from it since its peak. The speaker's thesis is based on historical performance and the perceived risks associated with the company's business model.
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Strategyshort-term
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMSTR below 90
Target / exitpotential bankruptcy or significant decline
Invalidation / stopif MSTR recovers significantly
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Company-specific risks
- Potential for further decline
Trade idea
Trade idea calendar spreads
calendar spreads are avoided due to their slow movement and pricing to perfection
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Strategycalendar spreads
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the stock beats the trader
Target / exitquick profits within 10-20 seconds
Invalidation / stopslow movement and pricing to perfection
Speakerspeaker
Risks- low probability of quick returns
- difficulty in making back the cost
Trade idea
coreweave puts
high volatility and potential for large gains
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Strategyputs
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading at 55, implied volatility 107
Target / exit235-250
Invalidation / stopstock price movement
Speakerspeaker
Risks- stock price movement
- implied volatility changes
Trade idea
Trade idea Strangle selling
Despite low volatility, selling strangles into earnings can still be a viable strategy. While low volatility reduces the potential premium, it does not change the probability of profit. The key is to recognize that the edge is still present, albeit with reduced reward potential. The market remains efficient, and the probability of profit remains the same, making it a binary event with clear risk-reward parameters.
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StrategyStrangle selling
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerLow volatility environment
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the trade
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market moves against the trade
- Volatility spikes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NFLX sell puts
The speaker suggests selling puts on Netflix (NFLX) as a strategy for the earnings cycle, given the improved liquidity and market conditions. The rationale is that the probability of profit remains consistent, but the potential reward is higher in high volatility. The speaker also mentions adjusting position sizes based on volatility levels and avoiding vertical spreads due to the lack of liquidity in the past.
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Strategysell puts
Assetequity
Expirationearnings date
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the stock is bullish
Target / exitprofit from the premium
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves below the put strike price
SpeakerScott
Risks- significant loss if the stock moves against the position
- limited liquidity in certain strike prices
Trade idea
SMH call spread
The speaker suggests selling a call spread on SMH, which has shown hyperbolic price movements. The expected move is significantly higher than the current price, and the options have a high IVR. The trade offers a substantial pop with a favorable risk-reward ratio, making it an attractive opportunity for shorting a hyperbolic asset.
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Strategycall spread
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock has been hyperbolic and is trading above the expected move
Target / exitUpwards of $30, possibly closer to $35
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerUnknown
Structure / legs- July 725 call
- July 730 call
Risks- Large potential losses if the stock moves against the trade
- Illiquidity of options
- Inaccurate prediction of price movement
Trade idea
AP covered call
If the stock is near its all-time high and the call option is getting 'destroyed,' the covered call position is still a winner, but the profit potential is capped. The recommended action is to close the covered call and sell an out-of-the-money put to maintain a long delta position with higher capital efficiency and a better probability of profit. This approach allows the trader to stay long the stock while managing risk.
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Strategycovered call
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock near all-time high and call option getting 'destroyed'
Target / exithigher capital efficiency and better probability of profit
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues to rise beyond the put strike price
SpeakerCher
Structure / legs- sell out-of-the-money put
Risks- The put option may not be as profitable as the original call if the stock continues to rise
- The trader may need to close the existing position and enter a new one
Trade idea
Uber strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle on Uber despite its low price, citing its non-AI status and decent implied volatility. The strategy involves skewing the strangle slightly to account for upside risk, with the rationale that the stock's current position near its lows makes it a viable candidate for a short strangle. The thesis is based on the assumption that the stock's low price and volatility provide a favorable risk-reward profile.
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading near its lows with decent implied volatility
Invalidation / stopif the stock breaks out significantly upward
Speakerunknown
Risks- Potential for significant upside movement
- Volatility may not materialize as expected
- Market news could disrupt the trade
Trade idea
SPCE credit spread
The speaker suggests a credit spread strategy for SpaceX (SPCE) based on its high expected move of $37. The trade involves buying 105 puts 5 times and selling 95 puts 12 times, resulting in a credit of $425-$430. The expected move is expected to take the stock down to $127, with a break-even point at $90. The trade is considered a short premium trade, and the speaker is cautious about the stock crashing. The trade is not long-term and is executed with a small position size.
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Strategycredit spread
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock trading at 164
Target / exitCredit of $425-$430
Invalidation / stopStock crashing
SpeakerUnknown
Structure / legs- Buy 105 puts 5 times
- Sell 95 puts 12 times
Risks- Stock crashing
- The credit collected is dependent on the stock's movement
- The trade is not long-term
Trade idea
SPX volatility trade
The speaker is short puts at the 100 level, anticipating a decline in volatility. The expected move by August expiration is 38 bucks, with the speaker adjusting their view to 37 bucks. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will close lower than its current price, with the potential for a short-term decline. The risk is that the stock may close higher, invalidating the trade. The trade is structured as a volatility trade, leveraging the expected decrease in volatility.
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Strategyvolatility trade
Assetindex
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility has been coming down a little
Target / exit38 bucks
Invalidation / stopif the stock closes higher than expected
Speakerspeaker
Structure / legs- puts at around the 100 level
Risks- The stock may close higher than expected, leading to a loss
- Volatility may not decrease as expected
- Market conditions may change, affecting the trade outcome
Trade idea
AAL buying a stock that was removed from an index
The speaker discusses buying American Airlines (AAL) when it was removed from the S&P 500. They bought 100,000 shares at $130, and the stock rallied to $8. The idea is that stocks removed from an index may experience a price increase due to reduced tracking or market sentiment. However, the speaker also notes that some stocks removed from an index may not perform well and could go bankrupt.
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Strategybuying a stock that was removed from an index
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock is removed from an index
Target / exitprice increase following removal
Invalidation / stopprice decline or failure to rally
Speakerunknown
Risks- Price decline
- Market volatility
- Failure to rally
Trade idea
SPACEX ratio spread
The speaker suggests that the short premium side of the market, particularly with stocks like SpaceX, can be a profitable strategy. The ratio spread is recommended as a trade idea, especially when there is an expected move in the stock. The speaker notes that the expected move for SpaceX increased slightly from 37 to 38, indicating a potential for a short premium trade. However, the trade should be executed with caution, as the market's reaction to index inclusion is unpredictable and can vary significantly.
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Strategyratio spread
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the stock is added to an index
Target / exitbased on expected move
Invalidation / stopif the stock does not show a clear move
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market manipulation risks
- Unpredictable market reactions
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SPCX volatility trade
The speaker discusses a trade involving SPCX, where they sold a put at 145 and short calls at 260 and long calls at 265. The trade was executed with the expectation of a bullish market, and the speaker suggests that the calls could be adjusted to be closer to the money for better results. The trade was exited with a 1050 credit, and the speaker believes that the trade could be improved by adjusting the strike prices.
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Strategyvolatility trade
AssetETF
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket price at 150
Target / exit1050 credit
Invalidation / stopmarket price below 145 or above 265
SpeakerAnetta
Structure / legs- short put at 145
- short call at 260
- long call at 265
Risks- Market volatility could lead to losses if the price moves outside the expected range.
- The trade involves complex options strategies that require careful risk management.
Trade idea
SPX shorting the S&P 500 after a rally
The speaker has sold S&P 500 contracts at 7557 and has since bought some back at 47 and sold more at 67. The speaker is currently short and believes the market is rallying, with the S&P 500 being 10-13 points higher than the entry point. The thesis is that the market is in a rally, and the speaker is taking advantage of the upward movement by being short.
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Strategyshorting the S&P 500 after a rally
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerRally into the close
Target / exit10 points higher than the entry point
Invalidation / stopIf the market continues to rally beyond the target
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NASDAQ shorting from lower prices
The speaker is shorting the NASDAQ from lower prices, indicating a belief that the market may not sustain its recent rally. They mention being short from lower prices than current levels and express a cautious outlook, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation in the near term.
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Strategyshorting from lower prices
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading at lower prices than recent levels
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- Market reversal
- unexpected volatility
- short-term price gaps
Trade idea
S&P Market order
The speaker placed a short order on the S&P at 7100, expecting a rally after a market decline. The order was filled on the opening, and the speaker adjusted their position as the market rallied. The thesis is based on the belief that the market would rally after a decline, but the speaker acknowledges the uncertainty of market movements.
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StrategyMarket order
Assetindex
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket opens down
Target / exit7100
Invalidation / stopMarket rallies back
SpeakerTom Scott Sohl
Risks- Market could rally quickly
- Order could be filled at unfavorable prices
Trade idea
SPX put credit spread
The speaker suggests that selling put credit spreads can be a viable strategy when the market is trending up, as the put spreads are cheaper and the market is less likely to crash upwards. However, the speaker also notes that the market can drop significantly in a short period, which could lead to losses. The thesis is based on the idea that the market's skew pricing reflects the risk of downside moves, making put spreads a more attractive option for bearish scenarios.
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Strategyput credit spread
Assetindex
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket trending up
Target / exitpremium collected
Invalidation / stopmarket reversal or significant upside move
SpeakerMichael
Risks- Market reversal
- Significant upside move
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea Trading the underlying asset when options are illiquid or during pre/post-market hours
The speaker suggests that when the underlying options are not liquid, trading the stock directly is more efficient. This is particularly relevant during pre/post-market hours when options are not actively traded. The rationale is that the stock can be adjusted or traded for price changes that occur outside regular market hours. This strategy is applicable when the stock price is low or when the options market is not functioning effectively.
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StrategyTrading the underlying asset when options are illiquid or during pre/post-market hours
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the underlying options are not liquid
Invalidation / stopWhen options become liquid or during regular market hours
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity risk in the underlying asset
- Timing risk in pre/post-market trading
Trade idea
MES directional trade
The speaker believes that MES can be traded directionally, and they personally trade it due to its micro contract size. They mention that they were long MES the previous night, expecting the market to rise, and they believe that the direction of the trade is key. They also suggest that the ratio of MES to other indices like MNQ depends on the current market conditions and notional balance.
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Strategydirectional trade
Assetfutures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the speaker believes the market is moving upward
Target / exitup 50 points
Invalidation / stopif the market moves against the trade
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market volatility
- incorrect directional assumption
- notional imbalance in pairs trading
Trade idea
EWY buy the dip
The KOSPI index, represented by the EWY ETF, has dropped 18% in two days due to the Iran war. This presents a potential buying opportunity. The speaker suggests buying the dip by purchasing call spreads of various durations, focusing on short and long-term options. The rationale is that the market may bounce back, and the call spreads can benefit from the recovery. The entry point is at 54.50, with options prices indicating potential for profit. The risk is the market continuing to decline or not recovering.
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Strategybuy the dip
AssetETF
ExpirationApril 14th
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket down 18% in two days
Target / exitbounce or recovery
Invalidation / stopfurther decline or lack of recovery
SpeakerArthur
Structure / legs- call spreads of various durations
Risks- further decline
- lack of recovery
- volatility
Trade idea
Bitcoin buying on the move
The speaker notes that Bitcoin has been moving up significantly, with a price increase of over 5,000 to almost 74,000. This indicates a strong upward trend, and the speaker suggests that this is a positive move for traders. The thesis is that the upward movement is a result of perceived opportunity, and traders should consider buying on the move. The entry condition is the price increase, and the target is the current price level. The stop or invalidation is a reversal in the trend or a significant market downturn.
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Strategybuying on the move
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerBitcoin catching a bid and moving up
Target / exit74,000
Invalidation / stopMarket conditions or a reversal in price trend
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential reversal in price trend
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SOX covered call
The speaker proposed buying a covered call on SOX with a July 10 strike price. This trade is based on the idea that the market is showing bullish sentiment, as indicated by the call skew. The trade is considered a 'cheapy' (low cost), suggesting the speaker believes the market is overvalued or that the bullish sentiment is not sustainable. The trade is intended to capture potential upside while limiting downside risk through the covered call strategy.
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Strategycovered call
Assetequity_index
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket at a certain level
Target / exitPotential upside from the strike price
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the bullish sentiment
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market moves against the bullish sentiment
- Options may expire worthless
- Volatility could impact the trade
Trade idea
SOXS Covered Call
The speaker suggests buying SOXS at $575-580 and selling a July 10 call option for a risk-reward trade. The strategy is designed to profit from a potential decline in the stock price, with a maximum gain of $5 if the stock falls below $640. The trade is considered a 'cheap shot' to the downside, leveraging the inverse ETF nature of SOXS.
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StrategyCovered Call
AssetEquity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price around $575-580
Target / exitStock price below $640
Invalidation / stopStock price above $640
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Limited upside potential if the stock rises above the strike price
- Market volatility could impact the stock price
- Execution risk if the trade is not filled
Trade idea
MRVL bullish vertical spread
The speaker suggests a bullish vertical spread for Marvell (MRVL) ahead of its earnings report. The strategy involves buying the 250 calls, selling two of the 260s, and buying one of the 280s. The speaker estimates the cost to be around a dollar 20 credit, with a 90% probability of profit. The expected move is $36, and the trade is considered outside the expected range. The speaker also notes that if the earnings are blowout, the 260 strike price could be a target.
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Strategybullish vertical spread
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore earnings report
Target / exit260 strike price if earnings are blowout
Invalidation / stopif the stock is down or unchanged
Speakerunknown
Structure / legs- buy 250 calls
- sell two 260 calls
- buy one 280 calls
Risks- The trade is outside the expected move
- The speaker estimates the cost and probability of profit
- The trade is for July, which is before the earnings report
Trade idea
SPACEX shorting on the second day of trading
The speaker suggests that SpaceX stock will be available for shorting on the second day of its IPO, as there will be no stock available on the first day. The speaker also mentions that the stock is expected to be liquid and that options will be available within a day or two. The speaker advises caution due to the volatility of the stock and the lack of liquidity on the first day.
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Strategyshorting on the second day of trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort on the second day of trading
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Volatility
- Lack of liquidity on the first day
- Uncertainty in the stock's price range
Trade idea
Trade idea
Premium sellers should take profits and reduce size as the market may change.
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Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerThe best four-week stretch of 2026 for premium sellers due to premium contraction and sideways range.
Invalidation / stopReduce size as the market may change.
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market reversal
- Premium contraction
Trade idea
Trade idea covered call
maximize profit with minimal action
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Strategycovered call
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock closes over 220 and profit is maximized
Target / exitmoney in account by next week
Invalidation / stopstock closes below 220
SpeakerTony
Risks- stock price drops below 220
Trade idea
Walmart Covered Call
A covered call can be synthetically replicated by selling a put with the same strike price.
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StrategyCovered Call
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the stock price is expected to have a limited upward move.
Target / exitLock in a loss if the stock price drops significantly.
Invalidation / stopIf the stock price moves significantly against the position.
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Capital exposure if the stock price moves significantly against the position
Trade idea
Trade idea wheel strategy
short premium when no premium to roll
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Strategywheel strategy
Assetfutures options
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen futures options are in the money and no premium to roll
Target / exitlet expire into futures contract
SpeakerNotre Doggus
Risks- delivery risk
- market movement
Trade idea
SPX put selling
The speaker believes that selling puts on SPX is a viable strategy given the current market conditions.
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Strategyput selling
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSPX is down 31
Target / exit105 or something
Invalidation / stopif it gets into the high 120
SpeakerTony
Risks- Market moves against the position
- Volatility changes
Trade idea
Trade idea Rolling short-term options at 21 days for better risk adjustment and return
Selling short-dated premium is not mathematically superior, but it does allow for more money to be made in a shorter period of time, albeit with more risk.
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StrategyRolling short-term options at 21 days for better risk adjustment and return
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen looking to trade short-term options
SpeakerTom
Risks- Taking more risk with faster gamma risk
- Volatility can cause significant changes in the market
Trade idea
NVIDIA sell earnings
The speaker proposed selling NVIDIA futures ahead of the earnings announcement, anticipating a negative market reaction. The trade was executed as a short position on futures, with the expectation that the earnings would lead to a decline in the stock price. The speaker noted that the trade was not successful, indicating that the market reaction did not align with the initial thesis.
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Strategysell earnings
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNVIDIA earnings announcement
Invalidation / stopmarket reaction to earnings
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility around earnings announcements
- Incorrect earnings guidance leading to adverse price movement
- Liquidity issues in futures markets
Trade idea
SPX shorting during sharp price declines
The speaker shorted the S&P 500 (SPX) at 7210 and 7209.5, taking profits as the price reversed to 7163. The trade was based on the expectation of a sharp reversal due to the high volatility and the completion of earnings plays. The speaker took partial profits and exited the trade without holding it long-term, indicating a short-term trading strategy.
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Strategyshorting during sharp price declines
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersharp price decline with high volatility
Target / exit50-point reversal
Invalidation / stopif the price continues to decline beyond the initial trade setup
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market reversal against the trade
- Increased volatility leading to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
NVIDIA shorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
The speaker suggests shorting NVIDIA after a significant drop, indicating a belief that the stock may continue to decline. The rationale is based on the idea that the stock has already dropped significantly and that the market may continue to punish it, especially if there are underlying issues such as earnings disappointments or broader market sentiment. The speaker also mentions that the stock is down $10, which is seen as a potential opportunity to short it further.
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Strategyshorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price down by $10
Target / exitprice drops to $30
Invalidation / stopprice rises above $40
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected earnings reports
Trade idea
AAPL Earnings trade
The speaker is considering selling puts against Apple's earnings, leaning towards selling the 57.5 puts with one day to expiration. The rationale is that the VIX is high, and selling premium early in the day is not ideal. The trade is expected to benefit from a potential rally, but the speaker is cautious due to the volatility and the need to avoid market shocks.
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StrategyEarnings trade
AssetEquity
ExpirationEnd of day
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerEarnings announcement
Target / exitUncertain, depends on market reaction
Invalidation / stopMarket moves against the trade
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected earnings results
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea Putting a trade on a name with a strong bearish thesis
Strong bearish thesis on a specific name
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StrategyPutting a trade on a name with a strong bearish thesis
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the market is moving against the thesis
Invalidation / stopAccepting that the market is telling something the thesis is not
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market moving against the thesis
- Failure to adjust strategy
Trade idea
GOOG naked short put with a call spread kicker
contrarian trade
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Strategynaked short put with a call spread kicker
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerpost earnings
Target / exitaround $5
Invalidation / stopvolatility normalization
SpeakerTony Batista
Structure / legs- August 300 put
- 335-340 call spread
Risks- volatility normalization
- price movement beyond expected range
Trade idea
Service Now Long Call Diagonal Spread
The trade is considered bullish with a focus on upside potential.
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StrategyLong Call Diagonal Spread
AssetEquity
ExpirationAUG
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock is higher by $160
Target / exitUpside play
Invalidation / stopIf the stock is oversold and the puts are not bid
SpeakerKathy Woods
Risks- Market volatility
- Underperformance of the stock
Trade idea
Trade idea scalping
Buy a little AMD here for a scalp
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Strategyscalping
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif not doing this show right now and short the market
Target / exitsell it when it's plus on the day
Trade idea
Microsoft broken wing butterfly
A broken wing butterfly is proposed for Microsoft, with the long legs at 345 and 315 strikes, and the short leg at 335. The trade is expected to profit from a limited downside move, with a small credit of 30-35 cents. The strategy is designed to capitalize on a potential 90% pop and 100% IVR, with low risk and low reward. The trade is suitable for a short-term horizon, with the expectation that the market will move within a narrow range.
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Strategybroken wing butterfly
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMicrosoft trading at 385
Target / exit42
Invalidation / stop345
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- 345 strike
- 335 strike
- 315 strike
Risks- limited upside potential
- risk of market movement beyond expected range
Trade idea
NFLX credit spread
Netflix (NFLX) is a liquid stock with a history of significant price movements around earnings. Credit spreads can be used to collect premium before earnings, but the risk is that the price may move beyond the expected range, invalidating the trade. The strategy is suitable for a small account due to the limited capital required for the spread.
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Strategycredit spread
Assetequity
Expirationearnings date
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbefore earnings announcement
Target / exitpremium collected
Invalidation / stopsignificant price movement beyond expected range
SpeakerSteve
Risks- Significant price movement beyond expected range
- Volatility may affect the effectiveness of the spread
- Liquidity issues if the stock is not liquid
Trade idea
SLV put spread
The speaker sold a put spread on silver (SLV) at a dip, indicating a bullish outlook. The strategy involves buying the 48 put and selling the 51 put, which allows for profit if the price of silver rises above the short put strike price. The trade is considered a good entry point due to the dip in price, and the speaker is looking to capitalize on a potential rebound.
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Strategyput spread
Assetcommodity
Expirationlast week
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdip in silver price
Target / exitprice increase
Invalidation / stopprice drop below 48
SpeakerTom
Risks- If the price of silver drops below the 48 put strike, the trade could result in a loss.
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the put spread strategy.
Trade idea
Lucid directional play
The speaker mentions buying Lucid at $6.07 as a directional play, indicating a belief in the stock's potential for upward movement. The trade is executed with the expectation that the stock will move in the anticipated direction, leveraging the clean delta and commission-free nature of stock trading. The trade is not explicitly timed or structured with options, focusing on the stock's price movement directly.
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Strategydirectional play
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen there's a perceived move in the stock price
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
Speakerspeaker
Risks- capital inefficiency
- market volatility
- execution risk
Trade idea
MNQ pairs trade
A pairs trade is executed by selling one MNQ and buying two M2K. This trade is based on the relative weakness of the Russell compared to the MNQ. The trade is considered risky but offers an 80% reduction in risk. The trade is an example of basis arb or basis trade.
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Strategypairs trade
Assetfutures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMNQ is up 160, Russell is weak compared to MNQ
Target / exit80% reduction in risk
Invalidation / stopMarket conditions change significantly
SpeakerDog ate AI
Risks- Market volatility
- Change in relative performance of the indices
Trade idea
SPY trailing stop-loss
Closing winning trades at 50% or 21 days to expiration is optimal for maximizing profit and minimizing risk, as supported by extensive research and backtesting. This approach aligns with probabilistic and optimization models that suggest these thresholds provide the best risk-adjusted returns. The trade should be executed with a clear entry point and a defined exit strategy based on these thresholds.
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Strategytrailing stop-loss
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerentry at a defined level based on technical analysis
Target / exit50% profit or 21 days to expiration
Invalidation / stoploss exceeding 50% or market conditions deteriorating
Speakertrader
Risks- Market volatility may affect the optimal closure timing
- Unexpected news or events could disrupt the trade's performance
Trade idea
MES futures shorting futures with defined risk
The speaker is shorting MES futures at 7475, 7485, and 7495, with the current price at 7518. The trade is based on the expectation that the futures will not continue to rise significantly beyond the initial risk. The speaker is considering taking profits at 7518, which is a 50% move from the entry point. However, the speaker is skeptical about the continued upward movement and suggests that the trade may need to be adjusted or closed if the price continues to rise.
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Strategyshorting futures with defined risk
Assetfutures
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershorting at 7475, 7485, and 7495
Target / exit7518
Invalidation / stopif the futures continue to rise significantly beyond the initial risk
SpeakerStewart
Risks- continued upward movement of futures
- unexpected market volatility
Trade idea
SPX short put
The speaker discusses a scenario where a short put position was taken on the SPX, and the market experienced a significant drop. The trade was based on the expectation of a market decline, but the actual outcome was a crash that invalidated the trade. The speaker acknowledges the risk of such positions during periods of high volatility and uncertainty.
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Strategyshort put
Assetindex
Expirationnot_specified
Time horizonshort_term
Entry / triggermarket volatility or unexpected news
Target / exitnot_specified
Invalidation / stopnot_specified
Speakernot_specified
Risks- Market crashes can lead to significant losses.
- Systemic risks may invalidate trades.
- Liquidity issues can prevent execution of orders.
Trade idea
Bonds selling puts
The speaker is selling puts on bonds at 112, anticipating a potential price drop to 110. The rationale is based on the current yield levels being the highest in 19 years, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend. The risk is limited to the premium paid for the puts, and the trade is considered a hedge against a short position in the broader market. The invalidation level is set at 116, indicating a potential reversal of the trend.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetfixed_income
Expirationunknown
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerbond prices at 110
Target / exit110
Invalidation / stop116
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected Fed policy changes
- Interest rate fluctuations
Trade idea
NKE Put
The speaker is selling June 40 puts in Nike (NKE) as a trade idea. The stock is near its support level, and the speaker believes it will rebound. The put is priced at $1.12, with a 70% probability of success and an expected move of $3. The trade is based on the idea that the stock is on its butt and is likely to rebound.
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StrategyPut
AssetEquity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price near support level
Target / exitPotential upside if stock rebounds
Invalidation / stopLoss if stock continues to decline below support level
SpeakerScott
Risks- Potential for large losses if the stock continues to decline
- Market volatility could affect the outcome
Trade idea
NKE put selling
The speaker suggests that the Nike trade is a cheap put to sell, but it requires a down tick in the stock. They also mention that the Vix not up-ticking could be a signal to pause short-side actions. This trade idea is based on the current market conditions and the speaker's analysis of the Vix and Nasdaq movements.
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Strategyput selling
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdown tick in the stock
Invalidation / stopif the Vix doesn't up-tick at all
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Failure to execute the down tick
- Potential for increased market downturn
Trade idea
Trade idea Selective market timing
The speaker suggests avoiding buying stocks at all-time highs and instead waiting for a pullback before investing. They emphasize the importance of market timing and adjusting portfolio allocations based on current interest rates and market conditions. The speaker's approach involves a 30-30-40 allocation, with a higher emphasis on cash and treasury equivalents when interest rates are high. They also advocate for the use of capital-efficient instruments like options, futures, and futures options, while adjusting notional sizes based on buying power and risk management.
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StrategySelective market timing
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is near all-time highs
Target / exitStocks lower before investing
Invalidation / stopMarket continues to rise
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market may continue to rise, leading to missed opportunities
- Interest rates may not continue to rise, affecting the allocation strategy
Trade idea
Spoos short-term trading
The speaker believes that if Spoos continue to sell and bonds break, the Vix will rally. The speaker is suggesting that if Spoos continue to go lower, the Vix is going to rally. The speaker is indicating that the market is currently in a state of uncertainty, and that the Vix is a good indicator of market sentiment. The speaker is also suggesting that the market is currently in a state of consolidation, and that the Vix is a good indicator of market sentiment.
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Strategyshort-term trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIf Spoos continue to sell and bonds break
Target / exitClose down 100
Invalidation / stopIf Spoos close down 30
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected news events
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
S&P 500 shorting the S&P 500 due to a perceived overbought condition
The speaker mentions that the S&P 500 is currently trading near 6965, with the market being 1% away from new highs. The speaker had started to get a little short due to a perceived overbought condition, indicating a belief that the market may correct. The speaker also notes that the market is near the 7,000 level, which was a target for the short position. The thesis is based on the idea that the market may be overbought and could experience a pullback.
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Strategyshorting the S&P 500 due to a perceived overbought condition
Assetindex
ExpirationApril expiration
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerS&P 500 near 7,000
Target / exitS&P 500 at 6965
Invalidation / stopIf the S&P 500 continues to rise above 7,000
SpeakerScott
Risks- The market could continue to rise, resulting in a loss on the short position.
- The short position may be forced to close at a loss if the market moves against the trade.
- The market may not correct as expected, leading to a loss on the trade.
Trade idea
Trade idea Gap Trading
The speaker acknowledges that large gaps in the market can be filled at some point, and traders may consider buying or selling based on whether the gap is filled. This is a common strategy among many traders, though the speaker does not personally engage in it. The idea is based on the assumption that gaps will eventually close, and traders can capitalize on this by entering positions accordingly.
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StrategyGap Trading
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerLarge gaps in price movements
Target / exitClosure of the gap
Invalidation / stopMarket conditions not meeting expectations
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Timing errors
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
gold put selling
The speaker discusses selling puts in gold when the price was down $90, indicating a short position. The idea is to profit from a potential recovery in gold prices. The speaker acknowledges the risk of the market continuing to decline, which would invalidate the trade. The trade was executed based on the market's movement and the speaker's awareness of the opportunity.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggergold price drops significantly
Target / exitgold price recovers to a certain level
Invalidation / stopgold price continues to decline beyond expected levels
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market continues to decline
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected market volatility
Trade idea
SPX broken wing butterfly
The speaker suggests a patent-pending broken wing butterfly strategy for SPX, which is a complex options strategy that involves buying and selling multiple strike prices. The idea is to capitalize on the market's volatility and rotation, with the potential for profit if the underlying index moves within a specific range. The strategy is considered a last-minute opportunity, suggesting it is a short-term trade.
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Strategybroken wing butterfly
Assetindex
Expirationlast night
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerlast night
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTony
Structure / legs- short strike
- long strike
- short strike
Risks- The strategy is complex and requires a good understanding of options trading.
- The market could move outside the expected range, leading to losses.
- The strategy is not suitable for all traders, especially those with a long-term investment horizon.
Trade idea
Microsoft put ratio spread
The speaker discusses a put ratio spread on Microsoft, which involves buying one put and selling two puts at a higher strike price. This strategy is used to profit from a decline in the stock price while limiting risk. The speaker mentions that this trade is part of a broader set of strategies, including a diagonal spread on Nvidia and a broken wing butterfly on the S&P. The put ratio spread is considered a 50/50 shot, with the potential for profit from the premium collected on the sold puts.
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Strategyput ratio spread
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket down
Target / exitprofit from premium
Invalidation / stoploss if market moves against the position
SpeakerTom
Risks- loss if the stock price rises
- limited profit potential
- time decay can reduce profitability
Trade idea
NASDAQ range trading
The speaker believes the market is entering a phase of choppy trading with a narrow range between 7500 and 6900. They expect rallies to be met with selling, and the market is likely to stay within this range. Traders should consider shorting rallies that approach the upper end of the range, with a stop at the lower end of the range.
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Strategyrange trading
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket rallies to 7500 or higher
Target / exit7500
Invalidation / stopBreak below 6900
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market may break below the lower range
- Unexpected macroeconomic events could disrupt the range
Trade idea
Trade idea Buy the dip
The speaker suggests that SpaceX's IPO may open too high and then experience a dip, making it a potential opportunity to buy the dip. The speaker also notes that the valuation is speculative and that the market is highly uncertain, with the potential for significant price swings. The speaker advises against investing in SpaceX personally but acknowledges that it could be a play for those who believe in Elon Musk's vision.
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StrategyBuy the dip
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf SpaceX's IPO opens too high and then dips
Target / exitPotential for a decent sized dip
Invalidation / stopIf the dip does not occur or if the market conditions change
SpeakerLoki
Risks- Market volatility
- Speculative nature of the investment
- Potential for significant losses
Trade idea
SPACEX range trading
The speaker suggests that SpaceX stock may test or fall below its IPO price of 135, indicating potential short-term volatility. The trade idea is based on the expectation of downward pressure due to market conditions and the stock's recent performance. The speaker advises caution after any potential decline, suggesting a short-term range trading strategy.
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Strategyrange trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice testing or breaking below the IPO price of 135
Target / exit135
Invalidation / stopPrice rising above 165 or significant positive news
SpeakerMr. Sheridan
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected positive news
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Microsoft covered call
The speaker suggests that for a Microsoft position already held, selling a covered call at the money is preferable if the trader is bullish and wants to keep the stock. If the trader is less bullish but still wants to hold the stock, selling a covered call out of the money is recommended. The reasoning is that at-the-money calls provide more premium, while out-of-the-money calls offer more room for the stock to move upward.
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Strategycovered call
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMicrosoft stock position already held
Target / exitmaximize premium or give room for upside
Invalidation / stopif Microsoft stock moves significantly upward and the trader is willing to lose the stock
SpeakerTony
Structure / legs- covered call on Microsoft position
Risks- Potential loss of upside if the stock moves significantly upward
- Premium received may be lower if the call is out of the money
Trade idea
Nvidia call spread
The speaker suggests a call spread strategy for Nvidia, selling the 225 235 call spread and buying the 160 put, with a target of collecting a 265 credit. The trade is based on the belief that the stock is in a range and that a significant upward move is unlikely. The speaker references a similar trade executed in August, indicating a pattern of using this strategy when the stock is in a range and the trader is moderately bullish.
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Strategycall spread
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price around 196
Target / exitCollect a 265 credit
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly higher or lower
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- sell the 225 235 call spread
- buy the 160 put
Risks- Potential for the stock to move beyond the strike prices
- Volatility could impact the trade's profitability
- Market conditions may change rapidly
Trade idea
NVIDIA covered call
The speaker believes that NVIDIA is a strong stock with significant valuation potential, and the covered call strategy allows for capturing upside while limiting downside risk. The trade is considered viable if the stock price moves within a 20-30% range, with the strike price set near the current price of 170. The speaker acknowledges that the stock could move lower, but the trade is still considered favorable due to the potential for a large move.
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Strategycovered call
Assetequity
ExpirationApril
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price near 170
Target / exitPrice movement of 20-30%
Invalidation / stopMarket downturn or significant price drop
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- strike price: 174
- expiration: April
- credit received: not specified
- probability of profit: not specified
Risks- Market downturn
- Price volatility
- Limited upside potential
Trade idea
gold selling puts
The speaker mentions being a buyer at higher prices in gold and silver, indicating a long position. They suggest selling puts as a strategy, which allows for a defined risk. The target is set at 4,200, with a stop at 4,000. The speaker also notes that buying gold outright would have been a losing proposition, suggesting that the put-selling strategy is more effective in this context.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigher prices
Target / exit4,200
Invalidation / stopunder 4,000
SpeakerTom Saznoff
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for large losses if the price drops below the stop level
Trade idea
GC short puts
The speaker is short puts in gold (GC) at the 3500 strike price, having sold them a couple of days ago at around 19.5-20 bucks. The trade idea is based on the belief that gold will not trade above 3500, and the speaker is looking to profit from the premium collected. The strategy is considered a short-term trade, with the potential for profit if the price of gold remains below the strike price. The risk is that if gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated, and the speaker may have to buy back the puts at a higher price.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerSold puts at about 19.5-20 bucks
Target / exitProfit from the put selling strategy
Invalidation / stopIf gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- If gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated and the speaker may have to buy back the puts at a higher price.
Trade idea
NKE selling puts
The speaker suggests selling puts as a strategy for earnings, leaning bullish or omnishirectional. This approach is suitable when volatility is cheap, and the stock feels like it's trading cheap, even if it's not technically cheap. The rationale is that selling puts can generate income while being long the stock, and the expected move is limited. The trade requires monitoring the stock's performance and adjusting as needed.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen volatility is cheap and earnings are expected to be positive
Target / exitprofit from the put sale if the stock trades above the strike price
Invalidation / stopif the stock drops below the strike price, the trade may need to be adjusted or closed
SpeakerArthur
Risks- If the stock drops below the strike price, the trade may result in a loss
- Volatility could increase, affecting the price of the put
Trade idea
NKE earnings trade
The speaker suggests that earnings trades are more profitable when volatility is higher and there is a decent IVR (Implied Volatility Ratio). This implies that traders should look for opportunities during periods of increased market volatility, particularly around earnings announcements, as these can provide more significant price movements and thus better trading opportunities.
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Strategyearnings trade
Assetequity
Expirationshort-term
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggeraround earnings announcements
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTony
Risks- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Volatility may not materialize as expected
Trade idea
NKE call spread
The speaker suggests that a call spread or directional trade on Nike (NKE) could be a viable strategy when volatility is low. However, they caution that this is a 'cheap shot' and not a reliable strategy for long-term success. The trade requires a strong directional conviction and is not recommended for all traders.
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility is low
Target / exitdirectional move
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves against the trade
Speakerunknown
Risks- loss if the stock moves against the trade
- requires precise timing and directional conviction
Trade idea
CATER Strangle
The speaker suggests using a strangle on Caterpillar stock, where the trader sells both a put and a call option. The strategy is based on the expectation that the stock will move significantly in one direction, with the trader willing to accept a small loss if the stock moves up but can profit from a larger downward move. The potential loss is limited, while the profit potential is significant if the stock moves down. The trader is advised to sell strangles to capitalize on the potential downward movement.
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StrategyStrangle
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock is expected to move significantly in one direction
Target / exitProfit from a significant downward move
Invalidation / stopLoss if the stock moves significantly upward
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Loss if the stock moves significantly upward
- Limited profit potential if the stock moves in the expected direction
Trade idea
Nvidia Strangles
The speaker shorted strangles and a ratio spread call, expecting the stock to move within the expected range. However, the stock did not move significantly, leading to a loss on the premium sold. The thesis was based on the assumption that the stock would move within the expected range, but the actual movement was minimal, resulting in a non-event. The strategy was to capitalize on the expected move, but the lack of movement invalidated the trade.
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StrategyStrangles
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the expected move is higher than the current price movement
Target / exitUncertain, based on market movement
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly beyond the expected move
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect expected move prediction
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
INFQ buying a stock with potential for significant price movement due to news or market sentiment
The speaker mentions holding INFQ at around $11.50 and notes that it has risen to $15.43, indicating a potential for significant price movement. The speaker suggests that the stock's performance is due to news or market sentiment, and that post-earnings cycles are favorable for such trades. The speaker also notes that the stock has had a significant increase, suggesting a potential for further gains.
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Strategybuying a stock with potential for significant price movement due to news or market sentiment
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerpost-earnings cycle
Target / exit15.43
Invalidation / stop9.5
Speakerunknown
Risks- volatility may not continue
- news may not be positive
- market conditions may change
Trade idea
NFLX short strangle
The speaker proposes a short strangle in Netflix with a conservative strike range, based on the expected price movement of $6 outside the range on both sides. The strategy is described as low risk and low reward, suitable for traders looking to participate in potential price movements without significant exposure. The speaker emphasizes the importance of the IVR and the probability of success, suggesting that the trade is appropriate for those seeking to enter a strangle in Netflix with a low risk profile.
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Strategyshort strangle
Assetequity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price within a narrow range
Target / exit75% probability of success (P50)
Invalidation / stopSignificant price movement beyond expected range
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- short put at 82.98
- short call at 88.78
Risks- Limited reward potential
- Risk of significant price movement beyond expected range
Trade idea
PALANTEER call spread
the move has already happened
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
Expiration135
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility is high
Target / exit146
Invalidation / stopafter an up move
SpeakerTom
Risks- volatility is low
- market direction is not as expected
Trade idea
Trade idea
Post earnings trades should be executed with longer-dated options to avoid holding positions during volatile periods.
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Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPost earnings trade
SpeakerScott
Risks- Volatility during earnings season
- Market gaps
Trade idea
yen put selling
market is expected to stay within range
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Strategyput selling
Assetcurrency
ExpirationOctober
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket within range
Target / exitcredit pop of 25%
Invalidation / stopmarket outside range
SpeakerScott
Risks- market moves outside range
- orders not filled
Trade idea
Trade idea calls
selling calls above the strike price to capitalize on expected price movement
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Strategycalls
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the stock gets called away
Target / exitexit the position
Invalidation / stopif the stock rallies and gets called away
SpeakerRoblox
Risks- stock rallies beyond expected move
- volatility changes
Trade idea
Oil shorting during a rapid upward move
The speaker discusses their experience of shorting oil during a rapid upward move, where they sold at a lower price after the price retraced. The strategy involves identifying a rapid upward move and selling at a lower price after the price retraces. The entry condition is a rapid upward move, and the target is to sell at a lower price after the price retraces. The stop or invalidation is if the price continues to rise without retracing. The time horizon is short-term.
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Strategyshorting during a rapid upward move
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerDuring a rapid upward move in oil prices
Target / exitSell at a lower price after the price retraces
Invalidation / stopIf the price continues to rise without retracing
SpeakerBarry
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect timing of the trade
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CL selling rallies
The speaker suggests selling rallies in the oil market, particularly using strangles on the CL contract. The idea is based on the belief that oil prices can move rapidly, and the speaker has previously sold premium on the CL contract, expecting the market to revert to a range. The strategy involves taking advantage of the volatility and the liquidity of the oil market, with a focus on short-term price movements.
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Strategyselling rallies
Assetfutures
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen oil prices are rising rapidly
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopif oil prices continue to rise beyond the initial range
SpeakerBarry
Risks- Market can continue to rise, leading to losses
- Liquidity issues in the options market
- Volatility can lead to unexpected price swings
Trade idea
null short premium on gold and silver
The speaker is currently short premium on gold and silver, suggesting that they believe the prices will not rise significantly. The speaker indicates that this strategy is working, and they are making money from it. The speaker also notes that the positions are not related to gold and silver specifically but are part of a broader market strategy. The speaker is cautious about the risks involved and acknowledges that the market could move against their positions.
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Strategyshort premium on gold and silver
Assetnull
Expirationnull
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent market conditions
Target / exitprofit from short premium
Invalidation / stoprisk of market movement against the short position
SpeakerEduardo
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for significant losses if the short position moves against them
Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
The speaker expresses a belief that silver is overvalued at its current price level, suggesting a short position as a potential trade. They acknowledge that their previous positions in silver were large and painful, indicating a need for caution. The thesis is based on the idea that price extremes can signal potential reversals, and the speaker is looking for a reversal to $84 as a target.
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Strategyshorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price above $120
Target / exitsilver price reverts to $84
Invalidation / stopsilver price continues to rise above $130
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected demand spikes
- Incorrect price reversal
Trade idea
SLV scalping
The speaker discusses selling SLV at 108 and 109, then scalping the position as the price dropped. This indicates a short-term scalping strategy where the trader sells at a higher price and buys back at a lower price to profit from the price decline. The thesis is based on the trader's ability to identify short-term price movements and execute trades quickly to capitalize on the price difference.
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Strategyscalping
AssetETF
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice above a certain level
Target / exitPrice below the entry level
Invalidation / stopPrice above the entry level
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Price could move against the trade
- Slippage in execution
- Market volatility
Trade idea
NASDAQ sell-off
The speaker mentions a 2% sell-off in the NASDAQ and suggests that it's too early to start buying, implying a short-term bearish outlook. However, the speaker also notes that the market is not at a record low and that there are cracks in the floorboards, indicating potential for further declines. The speaker's uncertainty about the market's direction is reflected in the suggestion that it's too early to buy, suggesting a cautious approach to shorting.
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Strategysell-off
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / trigger2% sell-off in the NASDAQ
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Volatility
Trade idea
CLX iron condor
The speaker is short an iron condor on Clorox (CLX) and is concerned about the potential for early exercise of out-of-the-money calls due to an upcoming dividend. The discussion clarifies that early exercise of out-of-the-money options is not typically done for dividend purposes, and the email was a general alert to all holders of options on Clorox with an upcoming dividend. The speaker is advised that there is no risk of assignment for out-of-the-money options, and the email was sent as a precautionary measure.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdividend announcement
Invalidation / stopdividend date
SpeakerTJ
Risks- Dividend risk
- Market volatility
- Early exercise risk
Trade idea
Q's Out of the Money Call Spread
The Q's ETF has a high implied volatility rank (72%), indicating potential for significant price movements. A bearish trader can profit from a call spread by buying a call at $80 and selling a call at $85, capitalizing on the ETF's volatility. The strategy is suitable for a slightly bearish outlook, with a target of 50% of the premium. The risk is limited to the cost of the long call, and the trade should be closed if the market moves significantly higher.
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StrategyOut of the Money Call Spread
AssetETF
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is bearish
Target / exitMax profit of 50% of the premium
Invalidation / stopMarket moves significantly higher
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- Buy a call at $80
- Sell a call at $85
Risks- Market moves higher than expected
- Volatility decreases
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NFLX Put Selling
The speaker suggests selling puts on Netflix (NFLX) at a strike price of 455-465, expecting the stock to trade above the strike price. The rationale is that Netflix has underperformed compared to other stocks, and the speaker believes the stock may not move significantly. The trade is considered a short-term play, with the expectation that the stock will not drop below the strike price. The risk is that the stock could fall below the strike price, resulting in a loss.
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StrategyPut Selling
AssetEquity
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price at 86
Target / exitStock price above 455
Invalidation / stopStock price below 455
SpeakerLoki
Structure / legs- Put with strike price 455
- Put with strike price 465
Risks- Stock price could fall below the strike price
- Market volatility could impact the trade
Trade idea
SPACEX Buy the dip
The speaker acknowledges the high valuation of SpaceX but believes it could still trade higher due to market demand and index inclusion. The proposed action is to buy the dip if the stock trades below its IPO price of 135, with the expectation that it may recover due to continued interest and demand. The risk is that the stock may continue to trade below the IPO price, indicating a lack of market confidence.
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StrategyBuy the dip
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf the stock trades below its IPO price of 135
Target / exitPotential for price increase due to market demand and index inclusion
Invalidation / stopIf the stock continues to trade below 135 and shows no signs of recovery
SpeakerSpeaker 2
Risks- High valuation may not be justified by fundamentals
- Market sentiment could lead to a selloff
Trade idea
NASDAQ shorting the NASDAQ index
The speaker is selling the NASDAQ index, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. The decision is based on the current market conditions and the speaker's assessment of the market's direction. The trade idea is to capitalize on a potential decline in the index, with the risk of being wrong if the market moves against the short position.
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Strategyshorting the NASDAQ index
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent market conditions
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions that suggest a reversal or significant change in trend
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Gold/Silver pair trade
The speaker proposes a short gold, long silver trade based on the gold-silver ratio. The trade is expected to profit from the ratio change, with the speaker noting that the trade has moved $4,000 since Friday. The speaker plans to execute the trade after the show, using micro contracts. The trade is considered a 'widowmaker' due to its potential for significant losses if the ratio moves against the trade.
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Strategypair trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort two gold futures, long one silver futures
Target / exitprofit from the ratio change
Invalidation / stopif the ratio moves against the trade
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Significant losses if the gold-silver ratio moves against the trade
- Volatility in the markets could affect the trade's outcome
- The trade is not suitable for all traders due to its high risk profile
Trade idea
SPACEX volatility spreads
The speaker suggests that when a highly anticipated liquid underlying like SpaceX is about to IPO, traders should use volatility spreads. This is due to the expected high volatility and the likelihood of price swings. The speaker emphasizes that traders should pick a price and leave it in, as the market will eventually fill the order. They also recommend reducing profit targets when trading such volatile assets to manage risk effectively.
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Strategyvolatility spreads
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh anticipated volatility due to IPO
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Structure / legs- short-term volatility spreads
Risks- Volatility can be higher than expected
- Market makers may have different strategies
- The initial price may not be filled at the desired level
Trade idea
SPACEX call spreads
The transcript suggests that due to the expected call skew, call spreads above the market will trade cheap. This makes call spreads an attractive strategy for bullish positions, as they are likely to be undervalued relative to put spreads. The speaker also references historical examples like GameStop, where call spreads were significantly cheaper than put spreads during periods of high volatility.
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Strategycall spreads
Assetequity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility environment
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Structure / legs- call spreads above the market
Risks- Market movement may not align with expectations
- Volatility could decrease, reducing skew
Trade idea
LCID buy the stock
The speaker believes that the Lucid stock is undervalued and has a strong company behind it. Despite the options market being described as 'garbage,' the speaker is willing to buy the stock directly. The speaker also mentions that the stock has experienced a significant drop following a reverse split, which may present an opportunity for a long-term investment.
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Strategybuy the stock
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price of $6.07
SpeakerTom
Risks- The stock could continue to decline if the company's performance does not improve.
- The speaker's valuation is subjective and not based on detailed financial analysis.
Trade idea
Nasdaq shorting the Nasdaq index
The speaker is shorting the Nasdaq index, believing it will fall from higher prices. This is based on the index's recent performance, which has seen a significant drop after a strong gain on the previous Friday. The speaker acknowledges the risk involved in this trade, as it has been a brutal week for short sellers.
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Strategyshorting the Nasdaq index
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNasdaq is at higher prices
Target / exitNasdaq falls from higher prices
Invalidation / stopNasdaq continues to rise
SpeakerS0058
Risks- Market reversal
- Increased volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea selling puts
Selling puts is a strategy that offers limited reward and high probability of success, similar to auto callable notes. It involves betting on market stability, where the underlying asset does not decline significantly. The risk is limited to the premium paid for the put option, and the reward is the premium if the market remains stable. This strategy is suitable for traders who are confident in the market's direction and can tolerate the risk of a potential loss if the market moves against their position.
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Strategyselling puts
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket stability
Target / exitlimited reward
Invalidation / stopmarket downturn
SpeakerScott
Risks- market downturn
- limited reward
- requirement for market stability
Trade idea
SPX expected move butterfly
The expected move butterfly strategy is suitable for short-term trading in highly liquid instruments like the SPX. By widening the strike range and paying a price between $1 and $2, traders can increase their chances of success. The strategy is based on the probability of the market moving within a specific range, with the odds of success proportional to the price paid. This approach is ideal for traders who can tolerate the low probability of success but are willing to take a calculated risk.
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Strategyexpected move butterfly
Assetindex
Expirationshort-term (0 DTE or weekly)
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility and expected directional movement
Target / exitmax profit based on strike width and price paid
Invalidation / stopif the market moves outside the expected range
SpeakerUnknown
Structure / legs- short 25 cents
- short 30 cents
- short 35 cents
Risks- Low probability of success
- Market volatility
- Incorrect assumptions about price movement
Trade idea
NVIDIA Earnings-driven
The speaker suggests that Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday could be a significant factor influencing the market. The speaker notes that Nvidia's performance is a bigger play than the State of the Union address, indicating that the market is closely watching the company's results. The speaker also mentions that Nvidia and Apple are strong, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock. The speaker does not have a position in Nvidia, but the potential for a positive move following the earnings report is highlighted.
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StrategyEarnings-driven
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerEarnings report on Wednesday
Target / exitPrice movement following earnings report
Invalidation / stopMarket downturn or underperformance relative to expectations
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Underperformance of Nvidia relative to expectations
- Overall market downturn
Trade idea
NVIDIA shorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
The speaker mentions that NVIDIA has dropped $6 and expresses a desire for it to rise. This indicates a short-term trade idea where the speaker is shorting NVIDIA, expecting a reversal or a rise in price. The trade is based on the speaker's personal sentiment and the recent price movement of the stock.
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Strategyshorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNVIDIA down $6
Target / exitNVIDIA higher
Invalidation / stopNVIDIA continues to decline
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market reversal
- Unexpected news affecting the stock
Trade idea
GLD Put selling
The speaker sold puts in GLD (Gold ETF) earlier when gold was down, and now it's up $69, indicating a potential reversal. The trade idea is to capitalize on the upward movement by selling puts, expecting the price to remain above the strike price. The strategy involves leveraging the increased volatility around the Fed meeting, with the expectation that gold will continue its upward trend.
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StrategyPut selling
AssetETF
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerGold price below a certain level
Target / exitPrice movement upwards
Invalidation / stopSignificant downward movement or market reversal
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market reversal
- Volatility contraction
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SPAC out-of-the-money call
The speaker suggests that a 'flyer' trade involves buying an out-of-the-money call on a stock that has been beaten down and has high implied volatility. The idea is to capitalize on a potential significant upward move, such as a stock like SpaceX that could rise sharply. However, the speaker also notes that such trades are speculative and should be approached with caution, as the market is crowded and the outcome is uncertain.
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Strategyout-of-the-money call
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen a stock has been beaten down and has high implied volatility
Target / exitsignificant upward move
Invalidation / stopif the stock does not move significantly
Speakerspeaker
Risks- high risk of losing the premium paid for the call
- market volatility can lead to rapid losses
Trade idea
NBIAS short-term trading
The speaker is long NBIAS, which has shown price movement with a recent increase from $25 to $27. The trade idea is based on the potential for continued price movement, though the exact target and stop levels are not explicitly stated. The speaker did not sell the position after a price drop, indicating a possible short-term holding strategy.
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Strategyshort-term trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice at $25 or $27
Target / exitPrice movement based on market conditions
Invalidation / stopPrice drop below $25 or $27
SpeakerGary
Risks- Price volatility
- Market conditions changing rapidly
- Lack of clear exit strategy
Trade idea
COINBASE Put Spread
The speaker sold the August 100 puts for $2, anticipating a rally within the expected range. The trade was based on the stock's premarket movement and the expected price range. The speaker believed the stock would rally within the expected range, making the put spread profitable. The trade was considered successful if the stock moved within the expected range, but it was invalid if the stock moved outside that range.
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StrategyPut Spread
AssetEquity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock is down premarket
Target / exitStock rallies within expected range
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves outside the expected range
SpeakerGary
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movements
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CL put selling
The speaker sold 64 puts on crude oil (CL) for $1.71, indicating a bearish outlook. The rationale is that crude oil prices had dropped back down, suggesting a potential for further declines. The trade idea is to profit from the put sale if the price continues to fall. The invalidation level is if crude oil prices rise significantly, which would reduce the value of the put options.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerCrude oil price drops
Target / exitProfit from the put sale
Invalidation / stopIf crude oil price rises significantly
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- If crude oil prices rise, the value of the put options will decrease, leading to potential losses.
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the trade.
Trade idea
Walmart puts
The speaker suggests selling puts on Walmart as a potential trade idea, indicating a belief that the stock may decline. This is part of a broader discussion about market conditions and the speaker's short positions on the Nasdaq and Moo (likely referring to Microsoft). The speaker's rationale is based on the current market environment and the belief that certain stocks may be beaten down.
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Strategyputs
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket conditions that suggest a potential decline in Walmart's stock price
Invalidation / stopMarket conditions that suggest a reversal or significant increase in Walmart's stock price
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for the stock to rise above the strike price of the put options
Trade idea
CL strangles
The speaker suggests that crude oil is a range-bound market with high implied volatility, making it suitable for short strangles or iron condors. By selling strangles at 70 and 150, traders can collect premium while profiting from the price range. The strategy relies on the market staying within the defined range, and the high implied volatility supports the potential for significant premium collection.
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Strategystrangles
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice within the range of 80 to 110
Target / exitprofit from the wide price range and high implied volatility
Invalidation / stopprice breaking out of the range or significant volatility drop
SpeakerTom
Risks- Price breaking out of the range
- Volatility drop
- Market liquidity issues
Trade idea
Trade idea shorting near market tops
The speaker is shorting certain stocks like silver and micron, believing they are near market tops. The speaker emphasizes that they are not at a price extreme and prefer to short near market tops when they believe the market is close to those extremes. The speaker also mentions that they are not taking long positions due to the current market conditions.
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Strategyshorting near market tops
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggernear market tops
Invalidation / stopmarket bottoms or significant price movement
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market could move against the short position
- Volatility could increase unexpectedly
- The speaker's assessment of market tops may be incorrect
Trade idea
Oil short put
The speaker discusses their short put position on oil, noting that the market has moved against their position. They mention covering a small portion of the position at $880 to reduce losses, indicating a strategy of limiting downside risk. The speaker acknowledges that the position was initially a disaster but has since been adjusted to cut losses by 60%.
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Strategyshort put
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket movement against the short position
Target / exitPrice level of $880
Invalidation / stopPrice reaching $1250
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected price movements
Trade idea
SPX ratio spread
The speaker executed a ratio spread on the S&P 500 (SPX) by shorting 100 calls and longing 200 puts, with an entry at 72. The target was set at 67, with a stop at 72. The strategy was based on the expectation of a price decline, which was supported by the speaker's observation of the market's lower levels. The trade was adjusted by adding to the position, indicating a belief in the continued downward trend.
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Strategyratio spread
Assetindex
Expiration2023-08-18
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice below 72
Target / exitprice below 67
Invalidation / stopprice above 72
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Structure / legs- short 100 calls
- long 200 puts
Risks- Price could move against the short position
- Volatility could increase the risk of losses
Trade idea
MICRON buy the dip
The speaker discusses the concept of 'buying the dip' as a strategy, emphasizing that it has historically worked over the past 16 years with snapback rallies following selloffs. However, the speaker warns that this strategy may not be effective during a significant market pullback, suggesting that it's not a guaranteed solution. The speaker also mentions that they would not buy MICRON at 880 or 550, indicating that the strategy is not currently applicable for this specific stock.
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Strategybuy the dip
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the price is oversold
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market pullbacks may not result in snapback rallies
- Oversold conditions may not lead to immediate price recovery
Trade idea
GOOGL Call Spread
The speaker suggests selling a call spread on GOOGL with a strike price of 405415, expecting limited upside movement. The trade is structured to benefit from a range-bound market, with the speaker noting that Google has not had a significant down tick in the last two years. The trade is considered as a way to capitalize on the skew in the options market, with the speaker acknowledging that they have not made money from similar trades in the past.
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StrategyCall Spread
AssetEquity
ExpirationAugust 21
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket conditions as of the time of the trade
Target / exitUncertain, depends on market movement
Invalidation / stopUncertain, depends on market movement
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for significant losses if the stock moves beyond the call strike price
- Limited upside potential
Trade idea
PLTR call spread
The speaker is selling a call spread on PLTR, which has had a significant rally. The strategy is based on the belief that the stock may not continue its upward trend, and the call spread is expected to profit from the premium. The speaker acknowledges the risk of the stock continuing to rise due to factors like AI-related hype, but believes the position is still viable given the current market conditions.
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Strategycall spread
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading around $134
Target / exit310 credit
Invalidation / stopif the stock rallies significantly or if the market moves against the position
SpeakerScott
Risks- significant rally in the stock
- market volatility
- earnings announcements
Trade idea
Bitcoin contrarian
If Michael Sailor is forced to liquidate Bitcoin, it could create a significant buying opportunity. The speaker suggests buying Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana at the bottom of such a crash, citing historical examples like the LTCM blow-up in 1998 and the 2020 market crash as precedents for contrarian buying opportunities. The speaker believes that a drop to 30,000 would be a buying opportunity, though they acknowledge it as a 'nasty' scenario.
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Strategycontrarian
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerforced liquidation event
Target / exit30,000
Invalidation / stopmarket crash
SpeakerAnton
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further declines
- Liquidity issues during a crash
Trade idea
S&P 500 buying the dip
The speaker suggests that buying the dip is a reasonable strategy, as it involves purchasing assets during a pullback with the expectation that prices will rise again. The reasoning is that markets often rebound from dips, and buying during these periods can be profitable. However, the speaker also notes that buying the dip is difficult, as it requires patience and the ability to withstand short-term volatility. The proposed execution involves identifying pullbacks and entering positions with the expectation of a recovery. The risks include the possibility of further declines, which could invalidate the trade.
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Strategybuying the dip
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerpullback in the market
Target / exitrecovery to previous levels
Invalidation / stopfurther decline below the pullback level
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Further market decline
- Failure to recover to previous levels
- Emotional decision-making during volatile periods
Trade idea
AAPL call spread
The speaker suggests rolling a call spread to August 320 and 330 as a strategy when Apple's price is down to the 310 level. This is a short-term strategy that involves a small credit and rolling the position to August. The idea is to capitalize on the downward movement of Apple's price while managing risk through the spread.
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Strategycall spread
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerApple's price is down to the 310 level
Target / exitRoll the call spread to August 320 and 330
Invalidation / stopIf the price moves significantly against the short call spread
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
- The spread may not perform as expected if the price does not move in the anticipated direction
Trade idea
NASDAQ short puts
The speaker is short puts on NASDAQ, covering them when the market is up. This suggests a strategy of profiting from a potential decline in the underlying asset, with the expectation that the market will not rise significantly. The speaker also mentions covering 10% of their position, indicating a partial hedge or risk management approach.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is up
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the short position
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market moves against the short position
- Liquidity issues in options markets
- Time decay may reduce the value of the short position
Trade idea
Trade idea selling out-of-the-money puts
The speaker discusses selling out-of-the-money puts as a strategy, noting that it can be risky if the underlying asset moves outside the expected range. The example given involves Tesla, where the speaker sold puts despite not being bullish on the stock. The thesis is that this strategy can be effective if the underlying asset remains within the expected move, but it carries the risk of significant losses if the asset moves outside the range.
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Strategyselling out-of-the-money puts
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the underlying asset is trading within the expected move
Target / exitthe strike price
Invalidation / stopif the underlying asset moves outside the expected range
SpeakerTom
Risks- significant losses if the underlying asset moves outside the expected range
- market volatility
Trade idea
Microsoft sell on rallies
The speaker is bearish on Microsoft at the current level, having been bearish at 430 and now at 420. The speaker suggests selling on rallies, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The rationale is that the stock has gotten ahead of itself, and the speaker believes it is overvalued. The invalidation level is a continued rise above 430, which would suggest the stock is not overvalued and the bearish thesis is incorrect.
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Strategysell on rallies
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice rallies to 430 or higher
Target / exitprice reverts to 420 or lower
Invalidation / stopprice continues to rise above 430
SpeakerJay
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected positive news
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CAR bull call spread with put purchase
The trader executed a bull call spread and purchased puts to capitalize on a short squeeze in CAR. The strategy aimed to profit from the upward movement of the stock, which was expected to reach a peak due to the short squeeze. The trader missed the peak by 2 hours but still captured gains on both sides of the squeeze. The strategy was based on the expectation of a rapid price increase due to the short squeeze, which is a common phenomenon in markets with significant short positions.
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Strategybull call spread with put purchase
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort squeeze
Target / exitpeak of short squeeze
Invalidation / stopfailure to reach peak or reversal in trend
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- bull call spread
- put purchase
Risks- Failure to reach the peak
- Market reversal
- Slippage in execution
Trade idea
Trade idea Iron Condor
The speaker suggests that when implied volatility is high, an iron condor strategy can be used to profit from volatility compression. This involves selling premium in a range-bound market where the underlying asset is expected to remain within a certain price range. The trade is based on the expectation that volatility will decrease, leading to a decline in the value of the premium sold. The strategy is suitable when the market is in a range and volatility is high, but it carries the risk of the underlying asset moving beyond the strike prices, leading to a loss.
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StrategyIron Condor
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerHigh implied volatility
Target / exitProfit from volatility compression
Invalidation / stopMarket moves beyond expected range
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market moves beyond the strike prices
- Volatility does not decrease as expected
- Implied volatility increases unexpectedly
Trade idea
ZB Yield Curve Trade
This trade is based on the assumption that the yield curve will narrow as long-term rates fall faster than short-term rates. The trade involves buying one ZB contract and selling two ZN contracts, which is a classic yield curve trade. The trade is low risk and low reward, with potential daily movements of a few hundred dollars. The trade requires around $5,000 in capital and is considered a classic yield curve trade.
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StrategyYield Curve Trade
Assetfutures
ExpirationSEP
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerYield curve widening
Target / exitLong-term rates fall faster than short-term rates
Invalidation / stopIf short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Limited profit potential
- Capital requirements
- Market volatility
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker believes that silver is overvalued and recommends shorting it, citing that the price has dropped from 9575 to 9425. The speaker has been shorting silver since Sunday night, scalping it without touching their core position, and has not made a losing trade. However, their core position has been significantly impacted. The speaker emphasizes that while shorting can be profitable, it requires careful execution and that the market may be overblown.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerOvervaluation of silver
Target / exitPrice drop to 9425 or lower
Invalidation / stopPrice increase above 9575
SpeakerScott
Risks- Price increase above 9575
- Market volatility
- Execution risk in scalping strategy
Trade idea
Trade idea defined risk spreads
The research suggests that widening the strikes in defined risk spreads is more effective than adding more contracts. This approach reduces risk and increases the probability of success, supported by mathematical and statistical reasoning. The thesis is based on the idea that widening the strikes provides a higher probability of success and lower risk compared to adding more contracts.
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Strategydefined risk spreads
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the opportunity to widen the strikes or add contracts is available
Invalidation / stopif the market moves against the spread
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- market movement against the spread
- limited upside potential
Trade idea
VIX selling premium into rich volatility
The speaker prefers selling premium into rich volatility, as it allows traders to get paid for taking risk. This strategy is more effective when volatility is high, as it provides a better risk-reward profile. The speaker expresses caution about low volume stocks during earnings season, suggesting that the strategy should be applied with care in such environments.
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Strategyselling premium into rich volatility
Assetvolatility_index
Expirationnear-term
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility is high
Target / exitvolatility reverts to lower levels
Invalidation / stopvolatility continues to rise
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- short straddle
- short strangle
Risks- volatility continues to rise
- earnings announcements may cause unexpected price movements
- low volume stocks may not provide sufficient liquidity for effective premium selling
Trade idea
SPX iron condor
The trader is setting up an iron condor with a wide range of $50, using 45 delta for the short legs. The strategy aims to collect a credit of around $14.50, with a target of 50% profit. The trader acknowledges that the difference between SPX and XSP is negligible, and the focus is on the speed of profit realization. The trade is considered low risk due to the wide wings, which reduce the chance of max loss.
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Strategyiron condor
Assetindex
ExpirationMay 1st
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket closed
Target / exit50% profit
Invalidation / stopMarket moves beyond the wings
SpeakerPamela
Structure / legs- 6050 6100 put
- 7100 7150 call
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movements
- Time decay
Trade idea
Trade idea volatility trading
During midterm election years, the S&P 500 historically experiences a drawdown of around 17% to 19.4%. The speaker suggests selling out-of-the-money puts as a way to capitalize on increased volatility and premium capture. This strategy allows for exposure to market movements without the need to own the underlying asset. The speaker emphasizes that this approach is safer than buying long shares and involves taking small, incremental steps to manage risk. The strategy is suitable for investors comfortable with contrarian strategies and willing to take calculated risks.
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Strategyvolatility trading
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket drawdown during midterm election years
Target / exitvolatility increase and premium capture
Invalidation / stopmarket rally or failure to capture volatility
SpeakerIsile
Risks- Market rally
- Failure to capture volatility
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Nasdaq short strangles
The speaker believes the Nasdaq will rally at some point today and suggests selling after the rally. They mention being short some wide strangles, indicating a strategy of selling volatility through strangle positions. The thesis is based on the speaker's observation of the market's behavior and their expectation of a rally followed by a sell-off.
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Strategyshort strangles
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket rally
Target / exitsell after rally
Invalidation / stopmarket reversal
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal could lead to losses if the rally does not occur as expected.
- Volatility could increase, affecting the effectiveness of the strangle strategy.
Trade idea
BABA selling puts on a stock trading near its lows
The speaker is short puts on Alibaba (BABA) as it is trading near its lows. The strategy is based on the idea that selling puts on stocks on their lows can be profitable if the stock does not move significantly. The speaker has already short the 120 puts and is planning to sell more puts, expecting the stock to remain near its lows. The risk is that the stock could pull back significantly, invalidating the trade.
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Strategyselling puts on a stock trading near its lows
Assetequity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock trading near its lows
Target / exit80% pop with a 16 delta
Invalidation / stopIf the stock pulls back significantly
SpeakerUnknown
Structure / legs- July 110 puts for $0.70
- July 120 puts for $1.70
Risks- Significant stock movement could lead to losses
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the strategy
Trade idea
SMH broken wing butterfly
The speaker is considering a broken wing butterfly trade on SMH, which is at its highs. The trade involves buying the 700, 710, and 730 strikes for a credit. The speaker notes that the trade has a high probability of profit (87%) and a high implied volatility ratio (IVR) of 93 due to semiconductor stocks. However, the speaker acknowledges that the trade has a high risk-reward ratio, with a potential risk of $930 and a potential reward of $1070. The speaker is cautious about entering the trade due to the stock's current position and the potential for a pullback.
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Strategybroken wing butterfly
Assetstock
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock at its highs
Target / exitcredit for a few pennies more than the initial trade
Invalidation / stopif the stock pulls back significantly
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- The stock could pull back significantly, reducing the trade's profitability.
- The trade has a high risk-reward ratio, which could lead to significant losses if the stock moves against the trade.
Trade idea
TSLA long calls
If a merger between SpaceX and Tesla occurs, Tesla stock is likely to increase in value. Long calls on Tesla stock could be a viable strategy. However, the trade is contingent on the merger happening, and there is a risk that the deal may not go through, which would invalidate the trade. The potential upside is the increase in Tesla's stock price, while the risk is the possibility of the merger failing or the stock price not rising as expected.
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Strategylong calls
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf a merger between SpaceX and Tesla occurs
Target / exitThe price of Tesla stock will increase due to the merger
Invalidation / stopIf the merger does not occur or the deal is not approved
SpeakerJeff
Risks- The merger may not occur
- The deal may not be approved
- Market volatility could impact the stock price