LD Lossdog Research
Symbol timeline

ZB

12 source-linked records across the archive.

Trade idea

ZB strangle

The speaker suggests selling a strangle when volatility is super high, as seen in ZB due to the recent down move. This strategy is preferred over selling a single put or call when the trader believes the market is oversold. The strangle allows for capturing volatility while skewing the position to benefit from a potential reversal. The speaker also notes that the strangle should be skewed with a closer at-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call to capitalize on the perceived oversold condition.

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Strategystrangle
Assetbond
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility
Invalidation / stopvolatility not reaching super high levels
SpeakerMaria
Structure / legs
  • put
  • call
Risks
  • volatility not reaching expected levels
  • market moving against the strangle
  • execution issues during high volatility
strangleFixed IncomestrangleZBshort-term
medium confidenceVerify in video at 08:00 ↗
Trade idea

ZB buying puts

The speaker is considering buying May 112 puts on ZB (likely U.S. Treasury bonds) due to the belief that the market may reach a new low. The speaker acknowledges that the puts have reached nearly their highest level again, indicating a potential for further decline. The speaker is hesitant to execute the trade immediately but is prepared to act after the show, suggesting a strategic wait for confirmation of market conditions.

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Strategybuying puts
Assetbond
ExpirationMay
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent market conditions
Target / exitnearly this high again
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerThe speaker
Structure / legs
  • May 112 puts
Risks
  • Market may not reach the expected low
  • Volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
  • Liquidity issues in the options market
putFixed IncomeZBshort-term
medium confidenceVerify in video at 1:00:53 ↗
Trade idea

ZB volatility selling

The trader sold volatility on ZB when IVR was high and observed a decrease in IVR, resulting in a profit. The strategy involves selling volatility when IVR is high and buying back when it decreases. This approach is effective in tracking changes in implied volatility and can be applied to other assets with similar volatility patterns.

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Strategyvolatility selling
Assetbond
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerIVR is high
Target / exitIVR decreases
Invalidation / stopIVR increases
SpeakerTP
Risks
  • IVR may increase, leading to losses
  • market conditions may change rapidly
  • trading platform limitations
shortFixed IncomeshortZBshort-term
high confidenceVerify in video at 28:11 ↗
Trade idea

ZB sell bond puts

The speaker suggests that the bond market is signaling a potential policy shift, such as a Trump put, and that the yield curve is wide, indicating a potential for further movement in the market. The speaker proposes selling bond puts as a trade, with a target of 114 and a stop at the low 114s. The trade is based on the idea that the bond market is acting as a 'bond vigilante' pushing yields down in anticipation of policy changes.

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Strategysell bond puts
Assetbond
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif the bond market is signaling a potential policy shift, such as a Trump put, and the yield curve is wide
Target / exit114
Invalidation / stopif the bond market does not signal a policy shift or if the yield curve narrows
SpeakerRyan
Risks
  • The trade is speculative and based on market sentiment rather than concrete data.
  • The bond market may not signal a policy shift, leading to a loss on the trade.
  • The yield curve may narrow, reducing the potential for a trade outcome.
shortFixed IncomeshortZBshort-term
medium confidenceVerify in video at 17:49 ↗
Trade idea

ZB selling puts

The trader is selling puts on ZB (30-year Treasury bonds) with an August expiration, targeting a strike price of 110. The trade is considered a high probability trade with a break-even point at 109. The trader believes that the market is unlikely to reach the break-even level due to the current economic environment. The trade is designed to collect a premium while limiting downside risk. The trader also mentions similar strategies for ZN (10-year Treasury notes), selling puts at a strike price of 108.5 with a break-even point at 108.

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Strategyselling puts
Assetbond
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price around 110 handle
Target / exitbreak-even at 109
Invalidation / stopif bonds fall below 109
SpeakerLisa
Structure / legs
  • August expiration
  • strike price of 110
  • premium collected
Risks
  • Market conditions can change rapidly
  • Potential for unexpected volatility
  • Need for accurate market analysis
shortFixed Incomeshortselling putsZBshort-term
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:10:38 ↗
Trade idea

ZB yield curve trade

The yield curve trade involves buying long-term bonds (ZB) and selling short-term notes (ZN) to capitalize on the expectation that long-term rates will decline more than short-term rates. This strategy reduces risk by 80% and is structured by buying one ZB and selling two ZN. The trade is based on the belief that the yield curve will invert, with long-term rates falling while short-term rates remain stable. The risk is limited to a few hundred dollars per trade, and the potential reward is the spread between the bond and note prices.

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Strategyyield curve trade
Assetbond
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term (within a few weeks)
Entry / triggerBonds are at a certain level, with expectations of long-term rate decline
Target / exitPrice decline in ZB relative to ZN
Invalidation / stopIf short-term rates rise significantly or long-term rates do not decline
SpeakerMitch
Structure / legs
  • buy ZB
  • sell ZN (two contracts)
Risks
  • Market volatility
  • Unexpected rate movements
  • Liquidity issues
longFixed Incomelongyield curve tradeZB
high confidenceVerify in video at 28:12 ↗
Trade idea

ZB sell September 104 put and 112 call

rangebound

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Strategysell September 104 put and 112 call
Assetfutures
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonimmediate
Entry / triggertoday
Target / exit41 ticks ($640)
Invalidation / stopoutside the expected move
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs
  • September 104 put
  • September 112 call
short stranglefuturesshort strangleZBimmediate
high confidenceVerify in video at 42:56 ↗
Trade idea

ZB Yield Curve Trade

This trade is based on the assumption that the yield curve will narrow as long-term rates fall faster than short-term rates. The trade involves buying one ZB contract and selling two ZN contracts, which is a classic yield curve trade. The trade is low risk and low reward, with potential daily movements of a few hundred dollars. The trade requires around $5,000 in capital and is considered a classic yield curve trade.

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StrategyYield Curve Trade
Assetfutures
ExpirationSEP
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerYield curve widening
Target / exitLong-term rates fall faster than short-term rates
Invalidation / stopIf short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs
  • buy ZB
  • sell two ZN
Risks
  • Limited profit potential
  • Capital requirements
  • Market volatility
longfutureslongyield curve tradeZBshort-term
high confidenceVerify in video at 18:45 ↗
Q&A

What are the differences between trading different futures contracts like ZB, ZN, ZT, ZF, ZD, ZS, and ZW?

The speaker explains that certain futures contracts, such as the 5-year and 2-year Treasury notes, are harder to trade due to their complexity and lower liquidity. In contrast, the 30-year (ZB) and 10-year (ZN) Treasury notes are more liquid and suitable for retail investors. The speaker also mentions that agricultural futures like wheat (ZW), corn (ZC), and soybeans (ZS) are more accessible and liquid, with all contracts trading one tick off the mid price.

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Actionable takeawayRetail investors should focus on more liquid futures contracts like ZB and ZN for Treasury notes and ZW, ZC, and ZS for agricultural commodities.
ZBZNfutures tradingliquidity
high confidenceVerify in video at 25:50 ↗
Q&A

What is the correlation between ZB and CL?

The speaker states that there is a strong negative correlation between ZB (U.S. 30-year Treasury bond) and CL (Crude Oil). This correlation is noted as a significant factor in the bond market's movement, with the speaker suggesting that the bond market is acting as a 'bond vigilante' pushing yields down in anticipation of policy changes.

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Actionable takeawayThe strong negative correlation between ZB and CL indicates that movements in crude oil prices can influence bond yields, suggesting that investors should monitor both assets for potential market signals.
CLZBbond marketMarket Outlook
high confidenceVerify in video at 15:18 ↗
Q&A

Could you go over the mechanics of your bond trade?

The speaker explains that they are selling puts on ZB (30-year Treasury bonds) with an August expiration, targeting a strike price of 110. The trade is considered a high probability trade with a break-even point at 109. The trader believes that the market is unlikely to reach the break-even level due to the current economic environment. The trade is designed to collect a premium while limiting downside risk. The trader also mentions similar strategies for ZN (10-year Treasury notes), selling puts at a strike price of 108.5 with a break-even point at 108.

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Actionable takeawayThe trader is selling puts on bonds with a high probability of success, collecting a premium while limiting downside risk.
ZBZNOptions
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:10:23 ↗
Q&A

What is the speaker's opinion on selling front month strangles in ZB or ZN?

The speaker states that they do not love selling front month strangles in ZB or ZN because they have not paid off in the past, although they acknowledge that this may change with the current Fed announcement. The speaker suggests that if nothing is expected to happen, selling strangles is a viable option.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that selling strangles in ZB or ZN may be a viable option if nothing is expected to happen, but notes that it has not been profitable in the past.
ZBZNOptions
high confidenceVerify in video at 51:30 ↗