LD Lossdog Research
Symbol timeline

ZN

11 source-linked records across the archive.

Trade idea

ZN Put Selling

The speaker suggests selling 110 puts in ZN for April as a way to play for a bounce in the price of ZN. They note that the delta on the 10 puts is around 29, implying a 70% probability of profit. The break-even point is around 109.5, and the trade is based on the expectation that interest rates will decrease, leading to a rise in ZN prices. The speaker also mentions that the trade is a way to bet on either the end of a war or the continuation of the current status quo.

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StrategyPut Selling
AssetFutures
ExpirationApril
Time horizonShort-term (April expiration)
Entry / triggerZN at 110.27
Target / exitBounce in ZN price
Invalidation / stopIf ZN price falls below 109.5
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs
  • 110 puts in ZN for April
Risks
  • If ZN price falls below 109.5, the trade could result in a loss.
  • Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the trade.
  • The trade is based on the assumption that interest rates will decrease, which may not materialize.
ShortfuturesshortZNput selling
high confidenceVerify in video at 30:29 ↗
Trade idea

ZN selling puts

The speaker is selling June 108 puts in the ZN (10-year Treasury Note) futures contract for approximately 30 ticks. This trade is based on the expectation that the market price will not fall below the strike price of 108, allowing the seller to keep the premium. The trade is considered a short-term opportunity, and the speaker notes that the exact price at the time of writing is not specified, indicating that the trade is based on current market conditions.

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Strategyselling puts
Assetbond
ExpirationJune
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket price at the time of writing
Target / exit30 ticks
Invalidation / stopNot specified
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs
  • June 108 puts
Risks
  • Market price could fall below the strike price, resulting in a loss if the put is exercised.
shortFixed Incomeshortselling putsZNshort-term
medium confidenceVerify in video at 11:14 ↗
Trade idea

ZN selling puts

The speaker is selling June 108 puts in ZN (10-year Treasury Notes) at around 30 ticks. The trade is based on the expectation that the price will not fall below the strike price, allowing the seller to keep the premium. The speaker mentions a pop of 70% and an IVR of 37, indicating a potential profit if the market moves as expected. The trade is considered a good opportunity due to the high IVR and the potential for a significant move.

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Strategyselling puts
Assetfutures
ExpirationJune
Time horizon39 days
Entry / triggerwhen the put price is around 30 ticks
Target / exitpop of 70%
Invalidation / stopif the price moves significantly against the trade
Speakerspeaker
Structure / legs
  • June 108 puts
Risks
  • Market volatility
  • unexpected price movements
  • changes in interest rates affecting the underlying asset
shortfuturesshortselling putsZN39 days
high confidenceVerify in video at 14:00 ↗
Trade idea

ZN selling puts

The speaker is selling puts on the 10-year note (ZN) to gain exposure to a potential decline in interest rates. The strategy is based on the expectation that rates will decrease, which would increase the value of the note. The trade is considered bullish, and the speaker is willing to take on short delta to benefit from the anticipated move. The risk is that if rates do not decline, the put could be exercised, resulting in a loss.

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Strategyselling puts
Assetinterest rate
Expiration10-year note
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerexpecting interest rates to decline
Target / exitinterest rates come down a little
Invalidation / stopif rates do not decline
Speakerunknown
Structure / legs
  • put
Risks
  • Interest rates may not decline as expected
  • Market volatility could impact the note's price
bullishbullishselling putsZNshort-term
high confidenceVerify in video at 19:16 ↗
Trade idea

ZN selling out-of-the-money puts

The speaker is selling out-of-the-money puts on ZN (109 or 108.5) and buying a call spread on 109-110, based on low implied volatility and a directional bias. The trade is expected to profit from the directional movement of the bond market, with a focus on short-term expiration. The strategy is based on the speaker's default approach of using delta ranges and expiration periods.

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Strategyselling out-of-the-money puts
Assetbond
Expiration45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerimplied volatility is low
Target / exitprofit from directional movement
Invalidation / stopif the market moves against the directional bias
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs
  • put on 109 or 108.5
  • call spread on 109-110
Risks
  • Market moves against the directional bias
  • Implied volatility increases
  • Liquidity issues in the options market
shortFixed Incomeshortselling out-of-the-money putsZNshort-term
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:04:00 ↗
Trade idea

ZN contrarian

The speaker expresses a preference for selling puts in ZN, believing it to be a decent risk-reward opportunity. They describe ZN as being on its butt, indicating a potential for a rebound. The speaker also mentions a contrarian approach, suggesting that buying assets that are on their butt is a strategy they favor. The trade idea is based on the belief that ZN is undervalued and may rebound.

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Strategycontrarian
Assetfutures
ExpirationJune
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerZN is on its butt
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks
  • Market may not rebound as expected
  • Volatility could lead to unexpected losses
longfutureslongcontrarianZN
medium confidenceVerify in video at 23:20 ↗
Trade idea

ZN Fade the initial move following a Fed announcement

The speaker suggests selling ZN (10-year Treasury Notes) if bonds move higher on a Fed announcement, as they have been trending higher. The speaker notes that fading the initial spike has not been very successful, but waiting a day or so and then fading the spike has been more effective. The speaker also mentions that they prefer ZN over ZB for shorting due to its lower volatility. The trade is intended to be a quick profit trade, not a long-term holding.

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StrategyFade the initial move following a Fed announcement
AssetFutures
Time horizonShort-term (scalp trade)
Entry / triggerIf bonds move higher on a Fed announcement, sell ZN
Target / exit10 ticks
Invalidation / stopIf the move continues beyond the initial spike
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks
  • The initial move may continue beyond the expected range
  • Market volatility may affect the trade outcome
ShortfuturesshortZN
high confidenceVerify in video at 51:07 ↗
Q&A

What are the differences between trading different futures contracts like ZB, ZN, ZT, ZF, ZD, ZS, and ZW?

The speaker explains that certain futures contracts, such as the 5-year and 2-year Treasury notes, are harder to trade due to their complexity and lower liquidity. In contrast, the 30-year (ZB) and 10-year (ZN) Treasury notes are more liquid and suitable for retail investors. The speaker also mentions that agricultural futures like wheat (ZW), corn (ZC), and soybeans (ZS) are more accessible and liquid, with all contracts trading one tick off the mid price.

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Actionable takeawayRetail investors should focus on more liquid futures contracts like ZB and ZN for Treasury notes and ZW, ZC, and ZS for agricultural commodities.
ZBZNfutures tradingliquidity
high confidenceVerify in video at 25:50 ↗
Q&A

Could you go over the mechanics of your bond trade?

The speaker explains that they are selling puts on ZB (30-year Treasury bonds) with an August expiration, targeting a strike price of 110. The trade is considered a high probability trade with a break-even point at 109. The trader believes that the market is unlikely to reach the break-even level due to the current economic environment. The trade is designed to collect a premium while limiting downside risk. The trader also mentions similar strategies for ZN (10-year Treasury notes), selling puts at a strike price of 108.5 with a break-even point at 108.

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Actionable takeawayThe trader is selling puts on bonds with a high probability of success, collecting a premium while limiting downside risk.
ZBZNOptions
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:10:23 ↗
Q&A

Would you do a credit spread or a debit spread?

The speaker prefers a credit spread in this case, as it is a risk-one-to-make-one trade. The trade is considered a pure 50/50 shot with a 29-tick spread, risking $450 to make $550.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker prefers a credit spread when the expected move is high and the trade is a risk-one-to-make-one.
credit spreadZNrisk management
high confidenceVerify in video at 37:09 ↗
Q&A

What is the speaker's opinion on selling front month strangles in ZB or ZN?

The speaker states that they do not love selling front month strangles in ZB or ZN because they have not paid off in the past, although they acknowledge that this may change with the current Fed announcement. The speaker suggests that if nothing is expected to happen, selling strangles is a viable option.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that selling strangles in ZB or ZN may be a viable option if nothing is expected to happen, but notes that it has not been profitable in the past.
ZBZNOptions
high confidenceVerify in video at 51:30 ↗