LD Lossdog Research
topic

commodities

8 matching records.

Trade idea

gold-silver ratio ratio trade

The speaker suggests buying two gold futures contracts for every one silver futures contract, based on the current gold-silver ratio of approximately 47. The trade is intended to capitalize on the ratio moving towards a more balanced level. The speaker notes that the ratio may need adjustment based on market conditions, and that the trade should be monitored closely due to the high volatility of the micro contracts. The trade is considered a short-term opportunity, with the potential for significant movement in either direction.

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Strategyratio trade
Assetcommodities
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the gold-silver ratio is around 47
Target / exitto capitalize on the ratio moving towards a more balanced level
Invalidation / stopif the ratio moves significantly against the trade
Speakerthe dog pound
Risks
  • High volatility of micro contracts
  • Potential for significant losses if the ratio moves against the trade
  • Need for frequent adjustments based on market conditions
long gold, short silvershort-termcommodities
high confidenceVerify in video at 34:39 ↗
Q&A

Is there an upper limit circuit breaker on silver?

There is an upper limit circuit breaker on silver, but it is not specified in the front month. The speaker mentions that the back month has a limit, but the exact value is not known. The speaker also notes that the current price movement is 'ridiculous,' suggesting that the market may be overcorrecting.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that the current price movement is 'ridiculous,' indicating a potential overcorrection. The speaker also mentions that there is no upper limit circuit breaker in the front month, suggesting that the market may continue to move in the short-term direction.
commoditiesmarket structuresilver
medium confidenceVerify in video at 13:36 ↗
Q&A

Do you think commodities are mean reverting?

The speaker believes that commodities may exhibit more mean reversion compared to stocks, but this is not universally agreed upon. The speaker acknowledges that while historical data may suggest this, validating such claims is challenging. The speaker also notes that certain commodities may have more mean-reverting characteristics than others.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that commodities may have more mean-reverting characteristics than stocks, but this is not definitively supported by data.
commoditiesMarket behavior
medium confidenceVerify in video at 51:35 ↗
Q&A

When is it best to use ETF or ETF options and when is it best to use futures or futures options when trading commodities?

The speaker suggests preferring ETF options for high-level trading but recommends futures for specific commodities like oil (CL) and gold (GC) due to liquidity and tradability. ETFs are preferred for certain assets like silver (SLV) and gold (GC) based on liquidity and tradability. The key factors are liquidity, tradability, contract size, and risk leverage.

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Actionable takeawayPrioritize liquidity and tradability when choosing between ETFs and futures. Use futures for commodities with higher liquidity and tradability, and ETFs for specific assets like silver and gold.
futurescommoditiesETFsTrading Strategy
high confidenceVerify in video at 1:20:38 ↗
Q&A

Does oil come back down?

The speaker believes oil will come down a little but not to cheap levels, as there will be no resolution to the conflict. The expected range is into the low 80s, with higher gas prices likely to persist.

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Actionable takeawayOil prices are expected to remain elevated due to unresolved geopolitical issues, with limited downside potential.
commodities
medium confidenceVerify in video at 57:02 ↗
Q&A

Is this a generational commodity re-rating or is it a crowded trade priced to perfection?

It's a little bit of a crowded trade, but people love their metals.

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Actionable takeawaySilver is a crowded trade, but it's not a go-to product for the speaker.
commoditiesTrading Strategy
medium confidenceVerify in video at 50:47 ↗
Q&A

What is the current market situation?

The market is soft, with the S&P down 78, NASDAQ down $440, gold down $106, oil up $4.73, and the 10-year yield at 4.7.

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Actionable takeawayMarket is in a soft state with mixed performance across asset classes.
commoditiesinterest_ratesMarket Outlook
high confidenceVerify in video at 34:27 ↗
Q&A

What is driving big moves in gold, silver, and crude oil?

The speaker attributes the big moves in gold, silver, and crude oil to retail participation, particularly in silver futures during the January 2026 run. The surge in retail interest is highlighted as a key factor, with micro silver contracts on the CME reaching record volumes. The speaker also notes that these moves are often driven by the 'hot item of the day, week, or month' and advises caution when entering such trades.

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Actionable takeawayRetail participation and the popularity of specific assets can drive significant price movements, but traders should be cautious and consider small positions when entering such trades.
commoditiesMarket Mechanics
high confidenceVerify in video at 30:39 ↗