Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Silver is currently at 10.50, and the speaker suggests that the price movement is 'ridiculous,' indicating a potential overcorrection. The speaker implies that the price may drop to a lower level, making a short position a viable strategy. The speaker also mentions that there is no upper limit circuit breaker in the front month, suggesting that the market may continue to move in the short-term direction. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the price will revert to a more reasonable level.
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Strategyshorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver is at 10.50
Target / exitsilver drops to a lower level
Invalidation / stopsilver continues to rise
SpeakerTom
Risks- silver could continue to rise
- market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker mentions that silver has experienced a significant move upwards, reaching $10.50, and expresses a desire for it to drop to $80. This indicates a short-term bearish bias. The speaker also references a previous ratio calculation, suggesting that the current price may be overvalued relative to gold. The trade idea is to short silver with a target at $80, given the potential for a correction based on the gold-to-silver ratio.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSilver price is above $10.50
Target / exitSilver price drops to $80
Invalidation / stopIf silver price rises above $110
Speakerunknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The trade may be invalidated if silver continues to rise above $110.
- The short-term nature of the trade requires quick execution and monitoring.
Trade idea
silver short strangle
The current short strangle position is not optimal due to the high risk-to-reward ratio. By re-centering the trade in April, the trader can capture additional premium and reduce the risk of a large adverse move. This strategy is effective when volatility remains high, as it allows for capturing the premium while reducing the risk of a large adverse move. The break-even point is around 92, and the trader needs to make back the lost money on the trade.
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Strategyshort strangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility remains high
Target / exitcapture additional premium
Invalidation / stopif silver does not rally
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- volatility may decrease
- silver may not rally
- transaction costs may eat into profits
Trade idea
Silver strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle on silver, which involves selling both a put and a call option at different strike prices. This strategy is suitable when the market is expected to remain within a certain range, allowing the seller to profit from the premium collected. The speaker also mentions that this trade is less aggressive compared to others, indicating a conservative approach.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is expected to remain within a certain range
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected
Invalidation / stopif the price moves outside the expected range
SpeakerVic
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movements
- slippage in illiquid markets
Trade idea
silver short-term trade
The speaker believes that silver is likely to make new highs by February, based on statistical analysis and market sentiment. The speaker suggests that traders should consider a long position in silver, but also warns of the risks associated with this trade, including the potential for large losses if the market moves against the position. The speaker also notes that the trade should be executed with caution, given the high volatility of the market.
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Strategyshort-term trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term, with the speaker suggesting a potential for a new high within the next hour
Entry / triggerIf silver makes new highs by February
Target / exitNot explicitly stated, but the speaker suggests a potential for a 5% daily move
Invalidation / stopThe speaker warns of the risk of the trade breaking and the potential for large losses if the market moves against the position
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- High volatility
- Potential for large losses if the market moves against the position
- Uncertainty about the timing of the new high
Trade idea
silver short-term bullish trade
The speaker discusses a poll indicating that 64% of respondents believe silver will make a new high, with the results coming in as 64% to 36%. This suggests a bullish sentiment towards silver, and the speaker implies that the market may be on the verge of a new high. The speaker's comment about the results being 'your 2/3 1/3' indicates a strong majority in favor of a new high. This could be interpreted as a bullish trade idea, with the entry condition being the confirmation of a new high in silver.
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Strategyshort-term bullish trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSilver making a new high
Target / exitNew high in silver
Invalidation / stopFailure to make a new high
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal
- Failure to reach the new high
- Volatility in silver prices
Trade idea
silver short calls and puts
The recent sharp move in silver and its subsequent consolidation suggest a potential reversal. By shorting calls and puts, the trader can profit from the price range. This strategy is suitable for short-term traders who can monitor the market closely and adjust positions as needed.
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Strategyshort calls and puts
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price has experienced a sharp move and is consolidating
Target / exitprofit from the price consolidation
Invalidation / stopif silver continues to move in a new direction
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- short calls above
- short puts below
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movement
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
silver meme stock-like trading
The speaker discusses how silver behaved similarly to a meme stock, with price movements that defied expectations. This suggests that traders should consider the possibility of rapid price changes in commodities, similar to meme stocks. The speaker's experience with silver indicates that such assets can be volatile and require a flexible approach. The thesis is that silver's price movement can be unpredictable, and traders should be prepared for sudden changes in direction.
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Strategymeme stock-like trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggersilver price movement upwards
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- volatility
- unexpected market shifts
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
silver spread trading
The speaker suggests that the spread between gold and silver is a false hedge, as it has fluctuated significantly over time. The speaker indicates that the spread was previously $51 but has since dropped to lower levels, suggesting that the hedge is not reliable. The speaker also mentions that trading copper against silver might be a better alternative, but acknowledges that copper is less liquid and has wider options, requiring caution.
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Strategyspread trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the spread between gold and silver is at a high level
Target / exitthe spread reverts to a lower level
Invalidation / stopif the spread continues to widen beyond historical levels
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The spread may continue to widen beyond historical levels
- The liquidity of copper is lower than that of silver
- The options for copper may be wider, increasing the risk of large losses
Trade idea
silver straddle/strangle
The speaker discusses the risks of being long silver during a sharp decline, suggesting that a short position or a straddle/strangle strategy could have been used to protect against downside risk. The strategy involves adjusting delta to ensure net exposure is slightly short, which can help mitigate losses during a downturn. The invalidation level is if silver moves upward or volatility decreases, which would indicate the strategy is no longer effective.
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Strategystraddle/strangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen silver is expected to move significantly downward
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopif silver moves upward or volatility decreases
SpeakerLarry
Risks- volatility risk
- market direction risk
- execution risk
Trade idea
silver shorting silver based on its recent price movement
The speaker sold silver above $76 in the morning, anticipating a price drop. The trade is based on the expectation that silver would move lower, with a target at $73. The invalidation level is set at $78, indicating that if silver rises above this level, the trade would be considered invalid. The trade is part of a broader strategy involving gold and silver pairs, with the speaker noting that the trade is moving all over the place due to the volatility of silver.
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Strategyshorting silver based on its recent price movement
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver traded above $76
Target / exitsilver price drops to $73
Invalidation / stopsilver price rises above $78
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Price could move against the trade if silver rises instead of falling
- Volatility could lead to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
silver trend following
The speaker suggests that following the trend in silver could be a good strategy, as the price has increased significantly from 52 to 85. However, they also note that they do not trade that way and consider the question to be one that should be asked of others. The speaker implies that the trend was a friend in this case, but they do not endorse the strategy themselves.
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Strategytrend following
Assetcommodity
Time horizonnot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerwhen the trend is favorable
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Trend reversal
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
silver call spread
Arthur proposed a $10 wide bull call spread on silver for July 26, with strike prices of 310 to 321. The trade is intended to benefit from management, but the specific management strategy or risk mitigation plan is not detailed in the transcript. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the market will move in a bullish direction, allowing the call spread to profit from the price increase.
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Strategycall spread
Assetcommodity
ExpirationJuly 26
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerbefore management
Target / exitpotential benefit from management
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerArthur
Structure / legs- call option with strike price 310
- call option with strike price 321
Risks- Market volatility
- Inadequate management strategy
- Potential for loss if the market does not move as expected
Trade idea
Silver sell on the open
The speaker suggests that silver had a significant sell-off and a small bounce back, but is now showing no movement. The speaker believes that the price will break back down, and proposes selling on the open. The speaker also mentions that they would love to go short on the open, but acknowledges that it is not possible. The speaker's reasoning is based on the belief that the price will continue to decline, and that the small float of the stock will lead to significant price movements.
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Strategysell on the open
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersell on the open
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- The price may not break back down as expected
- The small float may not lead to significant price movements
- The speaker's personal experience may not be universally applicable
Trade idea
silver short-term trading
The speaker executed a short-term trading strategy on silver, selling at higher price levels and buying at lower ones. They emphasized the importance of timing and market conditions, indicating that traders should be vigilant about price movements and adjust their positions accordingly. The strategy involves active monitoring and quick decision-making to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations.
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Strategyshort-term trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice reaches a specific level (e.g., 93)
Target / exitPrice drops to a lower level (e.g., 87)
Invalidation / stopPrice moves against the trade (e.g., rises above 93)
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Timing errors
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
The speaker expresses a belief that silver is overvalued at its current price level, suggesting a short position as a potential trade. They acknowledge that their previous positions in silver were large and painful, indicating a need for caution. The thesis is based on the idea that price extremes can signal potential reversals, and the speaker is looking for a reversal to $84 as a target.
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Strategyshorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price above $120
Target / exitsilver price reverts to $84
Invalidation / stopsilver price continues to rise above $130
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected demand spikes
- Incorrect price reversal
Trade idea
silver wheel strategy
The wheel strategy can be applied to silver by selling a put below the current market price and then selling calls against the position if the put is exercised. This strategy allows traders to generate income while being long the underlying asset. However, traders must be prepared for the risks associated with being long the underlying and short the corresponding put, which can lead to potential losses if the market moves against the position.
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Strategywheel strategy
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggershort put below market price
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom and Scott
Risks- potential for losses if market moves against position
- complexity of managing multiple positions
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker believes that silver is overvalued and recommends shorting it, citing that the price has dropped from 9575 to 9425. The speaker has been shorting silver since Sunday night, scalping it without touching their core position, and has not made a losing trade. However, their core position has been significantly impacted. The speaker emphasizes that while shorting can be profitable, it requires careful execution and that the market may be overblown.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerOvervaluation of silver
Target / exitPrice drop to 9425 or lower
Invalidation / stopPrice increase above 9575
SpeakerScott
Risks- Price increase above 9575
- Market volatility
- Execution risk in scalping strategy
Q&A
What is the speaker's opinion on the market movement?
The speaker believes the market is moving, and it's a little ugly out there today. He also mentions that gold has been weak and silver has been down.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is indicating that the market is volatile and certain assets like gold and silver are underperforming.
Q&A
Is there an upper limit circuit breaker on silver?
There is an upper limit circuit breaker on silver, but it is not specified in the front month. The speaker mentions that the back month has a limit, but the exact value is not known. The speaker also notes that the current price movement is 'ridiculous,' suggesting that the market may be overcorrecting.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that the current price movement is 'ridiculous,' indicating a potential overcorrection. The speaker also mentions that there is no upper limit circuit breaker in the front month, suggesting that the market may continue to move in the short-term direction.
Q&A
How do you calculate the gold-to-silver ratio?
The gold-to-silver ratio is calculated by dividing the current price of gold by the price of a silver contract. For example, if gold is priced at $50 and a silver contract is priced at $112, the ratio is approximately 47.
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Actionable takeawayThe ratio is a useful tool for assessing the relative value of gold compared to silver.
Q&A
Does it ever make sense to complement listed gold and silver futures with physical exposure purely as a hedge against exchange intervention rather than market movement?
The speaker argues that it does not make sense to complement futures with physical exposure as a hedge against exchange intervention. The speaker explains that physical gold is not a practical hedge in today's world and that it lacks utility in times of economic collapse. Instead, the speaker suggests that physical gold is not a reliable hedge because it cannot be used for everyday transactions during crises.
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Actionable takeawayPhysical gold is not a practical hedge against exchange intervention or market movement. It lacks utility in times of economic collapse and cannot be used for everyday transactions.
Q&A
Did you trade any Russell?
The speaker did not trade any Russell. They mentioned trading NASDAQ and S&Ps, being long gold, short silver, and short micron. They also mentioned buying Netflix premarket and selling it out.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker's trading activity includes specific indices and commodities, with a focus on short positions in certain assets.
Q&A
What is the current state of the market?
The market is experiencing significant volatility, with the S&P 500 down 30 points at the opening, rallying to a 15-point decline, and then falling further to a 65-point decline. Other assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also down, while the VIX is up.
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Actionable takeawayThe market is showing signs of fear and uncertainty, with multiple assets declining and the VIX indicating increased volatility.
Q&A
What are the current market conditions?
The markets are showing minimal movement, with the S&P and NASDAQ unchanged. Gold and silver have shown upward movement, with gold up almost five dollars and silver up 89,000. Bitcoin and Ethereum have also seen some movement, with Bitcoin catching a bid and Ethereum rising above $3,000. Bonds are stuck in a range, with the 114s at 11521. The implied volatility (IV) in the bond market is very low.
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Actionable takeawayTraders should be aware of the low volatility in the bond market and the higher volatility in commodities like gold and silver.
Q&A
What markets have you been trading recently?
The speaker has been trading silver and natural gas, with a focus on strangles. They mention experiencing significant daily moves in natural gas and are considering rolling positions or taking a loss.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is actively trading volatile markets with strangle strategies, indicating a focus on volatility and market moves.
Q&A
Should we follow the trend and get long silver?
The speaker suggests that following the trend in silver could be a good strategy, as the price has increased significantly from 52 to 85. However, they also note that they do not trade that way and consider the question to be one that should be asked of others. The speaker implies that the trend was a friend in this case, but they do not endorse the strategy themselves.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that following the trend in silver could be a good strategy, but they do not endorse it themselves.
Q&A
Will you stop it with your talk about silver?
The speaker refuses to stop discussing silver, indicating a continued interest in the topic.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is open to discussing silver, suggesting it may be a topic of ongoing interest.
Q&A
What is driving big moves in gold, silver, and crude oil?
The speaker notes that despite the dollar strengthening, gold has reached all-time highs in 2025, challenging the usual inverse relationship between the dollar and gold. This suggests that factors beyond traditional economic indicators are influencing commodity prices, such as geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, or shifts in monetary policy.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that the price movements in commodities like gold, silver, and crude oil are influenced by factors beyond traditional economic indicators, such as geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations.
Q&A
Why are Tom and Scott so bearish on gold and silver? Are they in denial?
Eduardo responds that Tom and Scott were bearish on gold and silver during a previous period when silver had a significant run. However, he clarifies that their current positions are short premium on gold and silver, which are working well. He also notes that the positions are not specifically related to gold and silver but are part of a broader market strategy. Eduardo acknowledges that the market could move against their positions, but he believes the current strategy is profitable.
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Actionable takeawayEduardo's current strategy involves short premium on gold and silver, which he believes is working well. However, he acknowledges the risks involved and the potential for market movement against his positions.
Q&A
What is the speaker's position in the S&P and NASDAQ?
The speaker is short S&P futures and NASDAQ options, having covered 10% of their position in the NASDAQ options. They are also short crude oil and gold/silver premium.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is managing their positions by covering a portion of their short positions in response to market movements.