Trade idea
Trade idea Premium selling in AMD and SpaceX
Premium sellers should benefit from the unexpected moves in AMD and SpaceX
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StrategyPremium selling in AMD and SpaceX
Entry / triggerAMD down 31 and SpaceX down 15
SpeakerTom
Trade idea
Trade idea buying the guts, selling the wings, and recentering
Four-legged trades are more efficient due to increased liquidity, reducing theoretical give-up.
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Strategybuying the guts, selling the wings, and recentering
Entry / triggerwhen liquidity is sufficient to justify four-legged trades
Trade idea
Trade idea put
Market may not move significantly, allowing the put position to expire worthless
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Strategyput
Assetoptions
Expiration2023-08-18
Time horizon2 days
Entry / triggerSold 90 puts in August expiring on Friday
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market moves against the position
- Volatility spikes
Trade idea
Trade idea
Taking more risk can lead to higher returns if the opportunity is correctly identified
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Entry / triggerTaking more risk in the market when there is an opportunity
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- The risk may not be reasonable for the return
- The opportunity may not be sustainable
- The market may not behave as expected
Trade idea
Trade idea
The stock rallied back up, and I ultimately made money on the trade.
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Time horizon2 weeks
Entry / triggerIf I was Goldman and I'd loan them the money, I'd be calling them too.
SpeakerUnknown
Trade idea
Trade idea strangle
high implied volatility and call skew
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Time horizon45 days
Entry / triggerpost earnings
Target / exit80% pop
Invalidation / stopmarket makers on
Speakerspeaker
Risks- earnings announcement
- market volatility
Trade idea
QQQ call credit spread
the trade has a 2/3 chance of making money
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Strategycall credit spread
Assetequity
ExpirationSEP
Time horizonshort period of time
Entry / triggerinside of the expected move
Target / exitabout a dollar 70 today
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves beyond the expected move
Speakerspeaker
Risks- if the stock moves beyond the expected move
Trade idea
QQQ strangle
QQQ is a favorite trade
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Strategystrangle
Assetequity
Entry / triggerwhen implied volatility is high
SpeakerShahrukh
Trade idea
PAL options spread
look for a 50% pop
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Strategyoptions spread
Assetstock
Expiration45 days
Time horizon21 days
Entry / triggerpost earnings
Target / exitcredit of two bucks
Invalidation / stopimplied volatility comes down
SpeakerMike
Risks- stock moves against the trade
Trade idea
Trade idea Roll up put spread
Adjust position if close to 21 days
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StrategyRoll up put spread
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf you're 24-28 days out
Target / exitCollect 20-30 cents
Invalidation / stopRisk of whipsawed movement
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- More risk on the downside
Trade idea
Trade idea
You can trade this. If you have If If you happen to know that ABC stock is going in and you're one of the first to catch wind of it, especially in a bull market.
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Entry / triggerIf you happen to know that ABC stock is going in and you're one of the first to catch wind of it, especially in a bull market.
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- If you're wrong, you're going to really be hurt.
Trade idea
Trade idea
The system works as designed, and the system allows for tradeable opportunities when analyzing what's coming in and out of an index.
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Entry / triggerIf you can tell what's going to come out, it can't be bullish.
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- The move might be front-run, and timing the effective date is crucial.
- Whether the better opportunity comes after the forced buying or selling is uncertain.
Trade idea
Trade idea call ratio spread
play a little omnidirectional contrarian play
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Strategycall ratio spread
Entry / triggergold miners breakout up 3 and 1/2%
Target / exit75-80% pop on the trade
Invalidation / stopnot buying the breakout
Trade idea
Trade idea bear call or put credit spreads
A beginner trade that involves bear call or put credit spreads is recommended for all traders.
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Strategybear call or put credit spreads
Entry / triggerEvery trader needs to buy and sell some stock and some micro futures
Q&A
What are the go-to strategies every trader needs to learn?
The go-to strategies include premium selling in AMD and SpaceX, and monitoring market movements for potential trades.
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Actionable takeawayTraders should consider premium selling in stocks that experience unexpected price drops.
Q&A
What do you think of Coinbase offering gold and silver futures? Competition for the CME?
No, it doesn't matter. The board's votes are aligned with management, and passive investors like BlackRock and Vanguard are unlikely to challenge management. The optics of such a move could be disastrous for the company, but it has no real influence on markets.
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Actionable takeawayPassive investors are unlikely to challenge management, and the impact of such moves on markets is minimal.
Q&A
What about a fast gap?
In a fast gap, the first move you can make is if you want to go inverted, just to flatten out your deltas, go right ahead. And then after that, just kind of refix just fix it when you get a chance.
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Actionable takeawayIn a fast gap, consider flattening deltas by inverting positions and refixing them when possible.
Q&A
Are these goals static or do they change under certain market conditions?
Goals change with market conditions, such as high volatility or low volatility. Trading is an art and science, and adjustments are made based on market changes.
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Actionable takeawayAdjust trading goals based on market conditions like volatility and VIX levels.
Q&A
Should I feel good or terrified that I took more risk and made some money in the last 2 weeks?
It should make you feel good, but always be aware of what you're doing. It depends on what you did. Taking the risk, was the risk reasonable for the return that you got and what it might teach you is, you know, what? You're comfortable taking more risk. So, you know, you might have thought you just were stuck in a rut grinding and all of a sudden you go, 'Wow, I like this.' Now, if you think that it just happened and the stars aligned and seven things had to happen which are all unusual and they happen, you might want to pull that back a little bit. What I wouldn't do is keep pressing. I What I wouldn't do So, if you took some more risk, you're comfortable there, say, 'I'm okay keep some of that risk, taking a little bit off, maybe not going back to where you were, but hopefully you'll learn from it.' And I wouldn't be terrified. I'd just keep in the back of your mind, 'Oh, you know what? I'm going to average, you know, um $1,000 or $2,000 or $5,000 or $10,000 a week.' It just doesn't work like that. So, what happened to you here is actually more common and especially most investors, they make a lot of their money, and most investors and most traders make a lot of their money in in
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Actionable takeawayTaking more risk can lead to higher returns if the opportunity is correctly identified, but it's important to assess the risk-reward ratio and ensure it's reasonable.
Q&A
If I have a position that recovered fully from a sell-off and it's back to break even, do you close it and move on?
It depends on how quickly it happened and how much time you have left. If the position was against you and it comes back, you might leave it if you still believe in your original thesis. If it was a quick recovery, you might close it and move on.
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Actionable takeawayEvaluate the time frame and your original thesis before deciding to close a position that has recovered from a sell-off.
Q&A
What is the risk of the trade?
The risk is the market makers on, and the chance of making 50% of the trade is close to 88%.
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Actionable takeawayThe trade has a high probability of success with a 88% chance of making 50%.
Q&A
Do you prefer to run your own business as a private company or a public company? At what stage do you go public?
The speaker prefers private companies as they are easier to operate, especially in regulated spaces. They have never gone public with the intention of selling the company, and it happens naturally when the business is acquired or listed.
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Actionable takeawayPrivate companies are preferred for operational simplicity, especially in regulated industries. Going public is a natural progression, not a planned exit strategy.
Q&A
When do you decide when it's a good time to sell a strangle and how to manage a strangle?
The best time to put on a delta neutral strangle is when implied volatility is really high. Adjust the strangle whenever you get a little bit uncomfortable. If one delta gets to two times the other delta, adjust the position to neutralize it.
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Actionable takeawayAdjust strangles when uncomfortable or when deltas become imbalanced.
Q&A
from the contrarian side, is this an amazing opportunity to sell, to get short, or if you're long, is an amazing opportunity to lighten up on some stuff, or are we going to be at 8,000 in the spoos by, you know, tomorrow or Friday?
The speaker suggests that while the market is experiencing a strong upward move, it's unclear if this is a sustainable trend. They caution that until there are signs of a pullback or a crack, entering the market could be painful.
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Actionable takeawayThe market is in a strong upward trend, but there's uncertainty about its sustainability. Caution is advised until there are signs of a pullback.
Q&A
Would you roll up the untested side of the GDX iron condor?
Roll up the untested side (put spread) with 44 days to expiration. The speaker suggests sitting on the trade unless the thesis changes.
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Actionable takeawayConsider rolling up the put spread if the thesis remains unchanged.
Q&A
Are prediction markets becoming a real financial market or still mostly a novelty wrapped in crypto rails?
Prediction markets are seen as a novelty wrapped in crypto rails, with high fees and primarily used for gambling. They are not considered real financial markets due to their speculative nature and high costs.
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Actionable takeawayPrediction markets are not real financial markets but rather gambling sites with high fees.
Q&A
What is wash trading?
Wash trading is the practice of creating artificial volume by placing trades that cancel each other out, often to inflate the appearance of market activity. It can be incentivized by exchanges to attract market makers and create liquidity.
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Actionable takeawayWash trading is a form of market manipulation that can distort genuine market activity and is often incentivized by exchanges to attract liquidity providers.
Q&A
What are viewers wanting to see right now in financial media?
Viewers want to see the hot product, which creates FOMO and can lead to bad markets.
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Actionable takeawayFinancial media's focus on trending topics can create hype and market distortions.
Q&A
What they can't lose sight of is that they need to maintain fair markets.
Maintaining fair markets is crucial for public trading platforms, as they are responsible for the environment in which trading occurs.
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Actionable takeawayPublic trading platforms must ensure fair markets to avoid responsibility for user actions.
Q&A
What happens when the S&P 500 undergoes a quarterly rebalance?
The S&P 500's quarterly rebalance involves adjusting the index's constituent stocks, which can lead to mechanical buying from index funds that must own the stock regardless of valuation. This can create market movements as funds adjust their holdings.
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Actionable takeawayIndex rebalances can influence market movements due to mechanical buying by index funds.
Q&A
Is index inclusion one of the market's most predictable stock moving events and does knowing that actually help?
The inclusion effect was historically substantial, but it has weakened as hedge funds and Wall Street desks increasingly anticipate likely additions before they are officially announced.
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Actionable takeawayKnowing about index inclusion can be helpful, but its impact has diminished due to market anticipation.
Q&A
You don't trade earnings?
The speaker does not trade earnings, but they have done trades related to specific companies like McDonald's and Intel.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker avoids trading earnings directly but acknowledges the potential for trading after hours or based on market forces.
Q&A
What are the go-to strategies that every trader needs to learn how to use?
Covered calls, selling puts, shorting puts, bear call or put credit spreads, and micro futures.
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Actionable takeawayEvery trader should learn covered calls, selling puts, shorting puts, bear call or put credit spreads, and micro futures.
Q&A
Should they be happy or should they be scared?
They should be happy for trying and learning from the experience.
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Actionable takeawayIt's important to applaud and learn from experiences, even if they involve taking more risk.