Trade idea
Trade idea diagonal spreads
short-dated plays are good in ETFs
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Strategydiagonal spreads
Assetoptions
Expirationclosest to 45 days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerlow volatility environment
Target / exitdirectional
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea
Walmart iron condor
Close the position to avoid earnings event and free up capital
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Strategyiron condor
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust 20th
Time horizon32 days
Entry / triggerIVR over 30
Target / exit20% profit
Invalidation / stopEarnings event
SpeakerConstantine
Risks- Earnings event could impact the position negatively
Trade idea
Trade idea Earnings iron condor
Avoid earnings events due to volatility and outlier moves
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StrategyEarnings iron condor
Time horizonWeek
Entry / triggerEarnings event
Target / exitTake 20% profit early in the week
Invalidation / stopVolatility pops late in the week
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Outlier moves
- Volatility spikes
Trade idea
Trade idea calendar spreads
low volatility can be exploited with calendar spreads
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Strategycalendar spreads
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerlow volatility
SpeakerRon
Trade idea
Trade idea unbalanced iron condor
collecting premium with limited risk
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Strategyunbalanced iron condor
Assetoptions
ExpirationSEP
Time horizon39 days
Entry / triggercollecting $4.70
Target / exitcollecting $4.80
Invalidation / stopimplied volatility rank
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- SEP 260 250 put spread
- SEP 90 95 call spread
Risks- volatility changes
- market direction
Trade idea
NEX wide put spread
the biggest risk in natural gas is always upside moves
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Strategywide put spread
Assetoptions
Time horizonimmediate
Entry / triggervolatility is acting at 0.046
Target / exitvolatility to come to 0.47
Invalidation / stopmarkets are bid at 42, but it's 47 right now
SpeakerTom
Risks- volatility acting against the trade
- markets moving in the opposite direction
Trade idea
IVR put
Better than 50/50 and IVR
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Strategyput
Assetequity
Entry / triggerNasdaq futures are up about 150
Target / exit34 bid
SpeakerTom
Trade idea
Trade idea
Silver and gold have enduring value and may experience significant moves, but traders should be cautious and not overexposed.
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Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerHold silver and gold for long-term, as they have historical value and potential for future gains.
Invalidation / stopAvoiding extreme price movements by not standing in front of the 'train' of price increases.
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Extreme price movements
- Market saturation
- Incorrect timing of entries/exit
Trade idea
Trade idea
Silver may reach a price that the speaker did not expect, and they plan to sell at 120.
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Entry / triggerWhen silver makes a move in a direction
Target / exitSell at 120
SpeakerSpeaker
Trade idea
Trade idea Short squeeze on a meme stock
A short squeeze on a meme stock like Wendy's could be a viable trade if the stock drops under eight bucks at seven and a half.
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StrategyShort squeeze on a meme stock
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf the stock drops under eight bucks at seven and a half
Target / exitPotential short squeeze
Invalidation / stopIf the stock doesn't drop under eight bucks
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- The short squeeze may not materialize
- The stock could continue to decline
Trade idea
Trade idea put ratio spread
IBIT is a good play
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Strategyput ratio spread
Entry / triggerif we get a flush like we had the previous two midterms
Target / exit75 cent credit
Trade idea
Trade idea Diversified portfolio with 20 stocks
A diversified portfolio of 20 stocks is a conservative approach for long-term growth
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StrategyDiversified portfolio with 20 stocks
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerUsing $5,000 to spread over 20 stocks
SpeakerMatthew
Q&A
Is the S&P 500's current trend a melt-up or complacency?
The S&P 500's current trend is described as complacency rather than a melt-up.
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Actionable takeawayThe market is showing signs of complacency rather than a melt-up, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics.
Q&A
Most traders are taught never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade.
The speaker argues that this rule would have kicked out nearly every generational winner too early. They suggest that taking profits early is a better strategy, as letting a winning trade continue can lead to losses. The speaker also mentions that most trades have a 50/50 chance of being a winner or a loser, making the rule less effective.
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Actionable takeawayTaking profits early is a better strategy than trying to let a winning trade continue, as it can prevent losses.
Q&A
What are your thoughts on single stock futures?
Single stock futures have been around for decades but haven't taken off. They've been redesigned to be more retail-friendly with a multiplier of 100 shares, offering 6 to 1 leverage compared to 4 to 1 for stocks. The speaker doubts they'll have a significant impact on the stock market, citing better liquidity in stocks.
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Actionable takeawaySingle stock futures are not expected to significantly impact the stock market due to better liquidity in stocks and the small leverage difference between stocks and futures.
Q&A
Is it normal for option traders to do well while stock traders struggle in a range-bound market?
Yes, it is normal. When option traders are successful, stock traders often struggle, and vice versa. This is due to the nature of their strategies and market conditions.
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Actionable takeawayOption traders and stock traders often have conflicting outcomes in range-bound markets due to their strategies.
Q&A
Should you avoid trading options of a stock if you don't have the buying power to hold 100 shares?
No, the ability to hold 100 shares has nothing to do with trading options. You can trade options with smaller capital by using spreads.
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Actionable takeawayTrading options doesn't require holding large quantities of the underlying stock.
Q&A
Will the S&P close above 7,800 this week?
The speaker states that statistically, the answer is 50/50, but the dog pound's survey indicates 56% of people believe it will happen, while 44% think it won't. The speaker acknowledges the uncertainty and suggests that the market's movement is influenced by various factors.
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Actionable takeawayMarket outcomes are uncertain and influenced by multiple factors.
Q&A
Do actual earnings matter to traders?
Earnings results matter to traders if they have a position, but traders often care more about the event itself and the volatility it brings. Earnings results are not always directly correlated with stock price movements due to market expectations and pricing.
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Actionable takeawayTraders should focus on the event and volatility rather than the actual earnings results, as market reactions can be unpredictable.
Q&A
Do you use the same like portfolio allocation percentage based on the VIX range if it's cash secured versus margin?
No. You have to think about things differently. In a IRA account, if you're selling puts in their cash secured, you can go to the entire account balance.
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Actionable takeawayPortfolio allocation strategies differ between cash secured and margin accounts, with cash secured allowing for higher leverage.
Q&A
What is the name of the sandstorm in Arizona?
Haboob
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Actionable takeawayHaboob is a type of sandstorm common in Arizona.
Q&A
any questions with that, uh email Tom at lostdog.com. He'll send it to me so I can answer to you.
email Tom at lostdog.com for questions
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Actionable takeawaycontact Tom for questions
Q&A
Is this a generational commodity re-rating or is it a crowded trade priced to perfection?
It's a little bit of a crowded trade, but people love their metals.
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Actionable takeawaySilver is a crowded trade, but it's not a go-to product for the speaker.
Q&A
Are bonds considered a commodity?
The speaker considers bonds to be a commodity, despite the ability to issue more of them, due to the demand for long-term bonds.
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Actionable takeawayBonds can be viewed as a commodity with long-term demand.
Q&A
What is the size of the micro gold contract?
The micro gold contract (MGC) is 10-oz, while the 1-oz contract is referred to as OZ. The GC (100-oz) is larger.
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Actionable takeawayMGC is 10-oz, GC is 100-oz, and OZ is 1-oz.
Q&A
What's wrong with you?
Nothing. I'm fine.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker denies having any issues, indicating a personal health or well-being discussion.
Q&A
What do you think the VIX one-day volatility is right now?
The VIX one-day volatility is reported as 564, indicating extremely low volatility and a market halt.
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Actionable takeawayThe VIX at 564 suggests a market in a state of near-zero volatility, which is unusual and may indicate a lack of market activity or uncertainty.
Q&A
What is the current state of the market and how does it relate to gamma risk?
The market is experiencing high volatility despite rising interest rates, and there's a discussion about gamma risk. The speaker mentions that most retail investors don't understand the buying power requirements to cover gamma risk, and that volatility is currently cheap, which can lead to gamma risk. However, the speaker also notes that when volatility is low, it usually doesn't get killed, and the VIX futures are up today.
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Actionable takeawayGamma risk is a concern in the current market environment, but it's not a factor for most retail investors due to their buying power requirements. Volatility is cheap, which can lead to unexpected market movements, but the speaker suggests that it's more about the environment than specific gamma risk.
Q&A
Is this a legitimate turnaround story or a Wall Street bets fueled short squeeze waiting to unwind?
It could be a short squeeze, but it's also a meme stock. The speaker is unsure and suggests it's a trade if the stock drops under eight bucks.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests it's a trade if the stock drops under eight bucks, but it's unclear if it's a legitimate turnaround or a short squeeze.
Q&A
Does weekly daily or monthly expirations quarterly whatever it is now that we have daily expirations matter any longer?
It doesn't matter anymore because they roll all of their longer dated put on a 45 days to the next month when there's around 21 days to expiration.
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Actionable takeawayDaily expirations don't matter as they roll longer dated options.
Q&A
Would you agree with the dog pound if you had to pick one, Wendy's, McDonald's or Burger King?
The speaker prefers Wendy's over McDonald's and Burger King, but acknowledges that the choice is subjective and others may have different preferences.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker's preference for Wendy's over other fast food chains is mentioned, but the discussion is more about personal taste than trading or market insights.
Q&A
Sa'd, before we get going, your thoughts on SMCI going back to all-time highs.
SMCI is not expected to return to all-time highs. It has lost 75% of its value from its high and is unlikely to reach those levels soon.
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Actionable takeawaySMCI is not expected to return to all-time highs due to significant value loss.
Q&A
Did you forget for a minute?
No.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker denies forgetting.