Trade idea
SPY Covered Call
Investing in SPY directly offers greater control over the underlying assets and allows for more flexibility in trading strategies, such as selling calls against the position. This approach is more advantageous than holding the money in a mutual fund like Vanguard, as it provides the trader with direct control over the investment and the ability to implement active strategies.
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StrategyCovered Call
AssetEquity
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerHaving $70,000 to $80,000 in a passive global stock bond mutual fund, and taking the money out to invest in SPY.
Target / exitLong-term hold with selling calls against it.
Invalidation / stopIf the strategy is not aligned with the trader's goals or if the market conditions change significantly.
SpeakerSteve
Risks- Market risk
- Volatility risk
- Liquidity risk
Trade idea
Trade idea Volatility trading using the VIX 3-month minus VIX
The speaker suggests that the VIX 3-month minus VIX being inverted is a good time to buy, as volatility is a mean-reverting index that must return to its mean over time. This strategy leverages the mathematical nature of volatility as a reliable measure, contrasting with price, which is not mean-reverting. The front month of volatility is sensitive to current events, while the back month is less affected, necessitating normalization over time.
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StrategyVolatility trading using the VIX 3-month minus VIX
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerWhen the VIX 3-month minus VIX is inverted and shows a good time to buy
Invalidation / stopVolatility normalization over time
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Volatility normalization may not occur as expected
- Timing the mean reversion is inherently uncertain
- Market conditions may change rapidly
Trade idea
BTC Holding Bitcoin as a small portion of the portfolio
Bitcoin is considered a wise investment as long as it remains a small portion of the portfolio. The speaker recommends holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin being a particular focus. The speaker personally holds less than 1% of their portfolio in digital assets, with Bitcoin being a long-term holding. The rationale is that digital assets have shown positive returns and can add alpha to a portfolio, but they should be held in small quantities to manage risk.
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StrategyHolding Bitcoin as a small portion of the portfolio
Assetcryptocurrency
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerBitcoin is held as a small percentage of the portfolio
Target / exitPotential for long-term growth
Invalidation / stopIf Bitcoin's value significantly declines or if the market regime changes
SpeakerTimothy
Risks- Market volatility
- Regulatory changes
- Security risks
Trade idea
Bitcoin buying at a perceived bottom
The speaker suggests that Bitcoin is at a bottom and is a good value at 60K, despite its volatility. They recommend buying Bitcoin at this price, but emphasize the importance of diversification and not putting all funds into a single asset. The speaker also mentions a personal strategy of holding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with a long-term bullish outlook.
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Strategybuying at a perceived bottom
Assetcryptocurrency
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerprice at 60K
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerDan
Risks- volatility
- market downturn
- overexposure to a single asset
Trade idea
UNH rolling put down and selling calls
The speaker suggests rolling the short Jan 300 puts down to the March 290s or 290s calls to convert the position into a longer-term trade. This strategy aims to capitalize on potential price movements while managing risk through the credit or even money generated from the call sale. The speaker also mentions the stock's recent price movements and stabilization as a basis for the trade.
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Strategyrolling put down and selling calls
Assetequity
ExpirationMarch
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerStock price stabilizing around 284
Target / exitPotential for long-term trade with credit or even money
Invalidation / stopLoss of 50 cents on the initial trade
SpeakerKeith
Structure / legs- short Jan 300 puts
- sell March 290s or 290s calls
Risks- Market volatility could lead to losses if the stock price moves against the position.
- The roll-down may not result in a favorable outcome if the stock price does not stabilize as expected.
Trade idea
Trade idea covered call
The speaker suggests selling 300 calls against a long stock position to convert it into a longer-term trade. This adjustment is recommended to capture potential upside while limiting risk, even if the initial position was entered with a small credit or debit. The speaker emphasizes the importance of flexibility in trade execution and the need to roll the position to strike prices in the range of 280s, 285s, and 290s. The strategy is based on the assumption that the market will move in a direction that justifies the adjustment.
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Strategycovered call
Assetequity
ExpirationMarch
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerLong stock position
Target / exitRolling to strike prices in the range of 280s, 285s, and 290s
Invalidation / stopMarket movement that negates the trade's potential upside
SpeakerJustin
Risks- Market movement that negates the trade's potential upside
- The need for market movement to justify the adjustment
Trade idea
ES Jade Lizard
The Jade Lizard strategy involves selling naked puts and selling call spreads above the market to hedge and capitalize on bullish expectations. This strategy is capital efficient and has historically performed well over the last 20 years. It is suitable for traders who are bullish on the underlying asset and willing to manage the risk associated with naked puts.
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StrategyJade Lizard
Assetindex
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggersell out-of-the-money naked puts
Target / exitprofit from premium and potential upside
Invalidation / stopif the market moves significantly against the short put
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- significant risk if the market moves against the short put
- capital requirements for the short put
Trade idea
6J short puts
The speaker has been short puts on the Japanese yen (6J) for 4 or 5 years, with the 64, 65, and 66 puts currently in the money. The premium has been coming in nicely, and the speaker believes this has been one of the best trades on the board. The strategy is to wait for a rally in the Japanese yen, with the August 7th 62.5 puts sold for 450, equivalent to $562. The speaker is also short a 70-75 call spread in Micron and a strangle in Netflix, indicating a diversified approach to short positions.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetcurrency
ExpirationAugust 7th
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggercurrent price in the money
Target / exitwaiting for a rally in the Japanese yen
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
SpeakerScott
Risks- Potential for further price declines in the Japanese yen
- Risk of the rally not occurring
- Market volatility affecting the premium
Trade idea
Trade idea long-term holding
digital assets have potential for recovery and can be long-term investments
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Strategylong-term holding
Assetdigital_assets
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerbeing long during a potential bottom
Target / exitpotential future price increase
Invalidation / stopchasing next time
Speakerunknown
Risks- price volatility
- market sentiment shifts
Trade idea
Bitcoin long-term holding
The speaker expresses a preference for trading Microsoft over Bitcoin, citing the latter's limited utility for retail traders. However, the speaker is long Bitcoin, indicating a belief in its long-term potential. The rationale is that Bitcoin's price movement and options market provide more trading opportunities compared to SOFR futures, which are not suitable for retail investors. The trade idea is based on the speaker's personal position and market sentiment, with the target price of 65,000 as a reference point.
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Strategylong-term holding
Assetcryptocurrency
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggercurrent market levels
Target / exit65,000
Invalidation / stopmarket downturn or significant volatility
SpeakerTom Styles
Risks- Market volatility
- Regulatory changes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
SOXS Writing calls against underlying stocks to benefit from option decay
Writing calls against SOXS (a bear three times semiconductor ETF) can benefit from a bull market and option decay. The strategy involves writing calls to capitalize on the decay of the premium, which naturally decreases over time. The goal is to approach a zero basis, which indicates that the cost basis of the position is effectively eliminated. This strategy is suitable in a bull market where the underlying asset is expected to appreciate, allowing the premium to decay while the position remains profitable.
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StrategyWriting calls against underlying stocks to benefit from option decay
AssetETF
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerBull market with positive option decay
Target / exitBasis approaching zero
Invalidation / stopMarket reversal or significant volatility
SpeakerNeil
Risks- Market reversal
- Significant volatility
- Liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
XLU Mean Reversion
The speaker has consistently lost money on XLU over a 10-year period, with every year showing a negative P&L. This indicates a mean reversion opportunity, as the ETF has not moved significantly despite long-term trading. The strategy is to short the ETF, expecting a reversal to a more neutral or positive trend. The invalidation is if the ETF shows a sustained upward trend or significant volume increase, indicating a potential reversal.
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StrategyMean Reversion
AssetETF
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerWhen the ETF is in a prolonged downtrend with no signs of reversal
Target / exitBreak even on initial investment
Invalidation / stopIf the ETF shows signs of a sustained upward trend or significant volume increase
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues
- Potential for extended downtrend
Trade idea
PYPL long position
The speaker has decided to go long on PayPal (PYPL) after a series of unsuccessful trades, including a naked put sale that resulted in a loss. The decision is based on the belief that the stock is at a low level following its spin-off and that the company's recent stable coin initiative was a positive development. The speaker acknowledges the company's spam practices but is willing to take a long position due to the potential for future growth.
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Strategylong position
Assetequity
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerStock is at a low level after spinning off
Target / exitLong-term hold into 2027
Invalidation / stopIf the stock continues to underperform or if the company's spam practices persist
SpeakerSaul
Risks- Company's spam practices may continue
- Market volatility could impact the stock price
- Potential for continued underperformance
Trade idea
Trade idea Investing in alternative assets
The speaker suggests that alternative assets like vintage scotch, baseball cards, and fossils may offer opportunities for investment, though they caution against high fees and potential fraud. They emphasize the need for professional management and tokenization in the future. The speaker also highlights the potential for growth in the alternative asset space starting in 2026.
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StrategyInvesting in alternative assets
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerInvesting in alternative assets such as vintage scotch, baseball cards, or fossils
Target / exitPotential appreciation in value
Invalidation / stopHigh fees, fraud, and regulatory risks
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- High fees
- Fraud
- Regulatory risks
- Uncertain returns
Trade idea
yen futures sell puts
The yen is trading at a 5-year low, and the speaker has been long yen futures for three years while shorting puts. The strategy involves selling puts to collect premium while being prepared for downside risk. The yen's historical performance and current low suggest a potential long-term bullish trend, making this strategy viable. However, the speaker notes that the yen has not moved significantly in three to four years, indicating the need for careful position management.
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Strategysell puts
Assetcurrency
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggeryen trading at a 5-year low
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- downside risk if the yen declines
- limited liquidity in certain options
- volatility risk
Trade idea
Micron buying at a low price with a long-term horizon
The speaker discusses their experience with Micron stock, where they bought it at a low price and held it for a long time, eventually seeing significant appreciation. The trade idea is to identify undervalued stocks and hold them for a long period, allowing for potential appreciation. The risk is that the stock may continue to decline, leading to losses if the trader is unable to recover. The thesis is based on the idea that patience and long-term holding can lead to significant gains, as demonstrated by the speaker's experience.
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Strategybuying at a low price with a long-term horizon
Assetstock
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerbuying at a low price when the stock is undervalued
Target / exitsignificant appreciation over time
Invalidation / stoploss if the stock continues to decline and the trader is unable to recover
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market risk
- liquidity risk
- time risk
Trade idea
BTC buy on dips
The speaker is a buyer on any dip in Bitcoin, holding positions in the 60s and 70s, and considers selling when the price reaches the 90s or hundreds. The reasoning is based on the belief that Bitcoin's long-term value is tied to the development of digital payment rails and tokenization, which will drive its adoption over the next several decades. The speaker also mentions owning digital assets as a general investment strategy.
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Strategybuy on dips
Assetcrypto
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerwhen price dips below 60s
Target / exit90s or hundreds
Invalidation / stopsell on rallies above 90s or hundreds
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further price declines
Trade idea
yen selling puts
The speaker has been long yen for two and a half years and has been selling puts to collect premium. The rationale is that the yen has not had an uptick but still makes money because it doesn't go down enough to lose. The strategy is to sell puts to collect premium while maintaining a long position, which is effective in a range-bound market.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcurrency
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggermarket is open and yen is being traded
Target / exitprofit from premium collected
Invalidation / stopif yen moves significantly against the position
Speakerspeaker
Risks- significant loss if yen moves against the position
- market volatility
Trade idea
Blue Owl buy the stock and sell calls
The speaker believes that Blue Owl is undervalued and that it is not too early to nibble, given the potential for recovery and the thesis that the company is too big to fail. The strategy involves buying the stock and selling calls to generate income while limiting downside risk.
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Strategybuy the stock and sell calls
Assetstock
ExpirationMay
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggercurrent price of $8.65
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
SpeakerArthur
Risks- Volatility in the stock price
- Potential for the company to fail despite the thesis
- Market conditions affecting the effectiveness of the strategy
Trade idea
Trade idea Defined risk spreads
The speaker suggests that defined risk trades can be used to achieve a 20% return on a $250,000 account without constant monitoring. This approach involves selling premium (e.g., shorting options) and avoiding directional trades with profit caps. The speaker also notes that the VIX being elevated above 20 while IVR is not elevated below 30 may indicate a no-trade condition, as the market is volatile but the individual ticker's implied volatility is not elevated.
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StrategyDefined risk spreads
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerWhen the VIX is elevated above 20 but IVR is not elevated below 30
Target / exit20% return on a $250,000 account over time
Invalidation / stopSignificant market moves that invalidate the trade premise
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for significant losses if the trade premise is invalidated
Trade idea
Trade idea tail hedge
A tail hedge using out-of-the-money puts can protect against extreme downside risk in the SPX or SPDRs. The strategy involves buying options that are less than five deltas, which are associated with fat tails in the distribution of price movements. This is a long-term strategy that aims to cover the account if the index drops to a level that is considered a fat tail event. The entry condition is when the index is at a level that is less than five deltas, and the target is to cover the account if the index drops to that level. The stop or invalidation is if the index does not reach the level, the trade is considered invalid. The time horizon is long-term, as the strategy is designed to protect against extreme market events.
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Strategytail hedge
Assetoptions
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerwhen the index is at a level that is less than five deltas
Target / exitcover the account if the index drops to that level
Invalidation / stopif the index does not reach the level, the trade is considered invalid
SpeakerTom
Risks- The cost of the options may be high if the index moves significantly
- The strategy may not be effective if the index does not reach the level
- The strategy may not be effective if the market is not volatile enough
Trade idea
Trade idea
Silver and gold have enduring value and may experience significant moves, but traders should be cautious and not overexposed.
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Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerHold silver and gold for long-term, as they have historical value and potential for future gains.
Invalidation / stopAvoiding extreme price movements by not standing in front of the 'train' of price increases.
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Extreme price movements
- Market saturation
- Incorrect timing of entries/exit
Trade idea
Trade idea Diversified portfolio with 20 stocks
A diversified portfolio of 20 stocks is a conservative approach for long-term growth
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StrategyDiversified portfolio with 20 stocks
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerUsing $5,000 to spread over 20 stocks
SpeakerMatthew
Trade idea
Trade idea perpetual put selling
Rolling put positions to the next month with at least 21 days to expiration (DTE) is statistically optimal for maximizing returns over long periods. This timing allows for capturing the most credit with the least risk, as it aligns with the decay curve where the probability of profit is highest. The strategy is particularly effective for perpetual put selling strategies, such as those involving the S&P 500 index. The rationale is that by rolling positions early, traders can take a ton of risk off the table and optimize their return over long periods of time.
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Strategyperpetual put selling
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerRolling put positions to the next month with at least 21 days to expiration (DTE) when managing perpetual put selling strategies.
Invalidation / stopIf the market moves too quickly and the trade is 'crushed', the position may need to be adjusted or closed.
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility may reduce the effectiveness of the strategy
- Rolling positions may require additional capital or time
- The strategy may not perform well in extreme market conditions
Trade idea
BTC buying long-term bullish positions
The speaker predicts that Bitcoin will make a new high by the end of 2027 with an 80% probability, based on aggregated data from various sources. The recommendation includes buying long-term bullish positions in Bitcoin-related assets such as IBIT, coin, and MSTR. This trade idea is based on the speaker's confidence in the predictive model's ability to analyze market trends and generate actionable insights.
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Strategybuying long-term bullish positions
Assetcrypto
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerBitcoin making a new high by the end of 2027
Target / exit80% probability of success
Invalidation / stopIf Bitcoin fails to make a new high by the end of 2027
SpeakerPeter
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for incorrect predictions
- Liquidity issues in crypto markets
Trade idea
Trade idea Options strategies (selling calls/puts) for long-term
Long-term strategies can benefit from positive drift, and options strategies like selling calls or puts can reduce basis. This approach requires a commitment to the strategy and diversification. The key is to focus on the underlying asset's performance and manage risk through options.
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StrategyOptions strategies (selling calls/puts) for long-term
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerPositive drift in the underlying asset
Target / exitProfit from positive drift and premium income
Invalidation / stopNegative drift or significant market volatility
SpeakerTony
Risks- Market volatility
- Negative drift
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
GC Consistent premium trading
Gold (GC) is recommended as a consistent commodity to trade due to its liquidity and stable price behavior. The speaker suggests that gold offers a reliable premium and is less volatile compared to other commodities like silver or crude oil. The strategy involves identifying and maintaining positions within a stable price range, with the goal of consistent returns. The invalidation level is a significant price deviation from the established range, which would indicate a shift in market conditions.
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StrategyConsistent premium trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerPrice range stability and consistent premium yield
Target / exitPrice range maintenance
Invalidation / stopSignificant price deviation from the range
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Price volatility
- Market regime changes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
BTC regulatory environment improvement
Bitcoin and other digital currencies have historically benefited from regulatory clarity. The current regulatory environment is considered a significant barrier to adoption, and improvements in this area could lead to a substantial price increase. The market has already seen a significant price drop following regulatory uncertainty, suggesting that a positive regulatory shift could result in a strong rebound.
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Strategyregulatory environment improvement
Assetcryptocurrency
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerregulatory environment improves
Target / exitprice increase following regulatory clarity
Invalidation / stopfurther regulatory deterioration or price decline
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Regulatory changes could be negative
- Market volatility remains high
- Adoption rates may not meet expectations
Trade idea
MU long-term hold
The speaker has a long position in MU, which was up $3 at one point today. The position is being moved into a long-term hold position, indicating a belief in the stock's potential for continued growth. The speaker is cautious about the market's overall direction, but remains optimistic about MU's prospects.
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Strategylong-term hold
Assetequity
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggercurrent price
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Underlying fundamentals may deteriorate
- Potential for short-term price declines
Trade idea
MES tracking and monitoring
The speaker suggests that buying power requirements for MES will increase as the market moves upward. This is due to the percentage-based calculation of buying power requirements, which adjust with price movements. The speaker also notes that volatility (IV) could lead to higher requirements, but days to expiration (DTE) are unlikely to impact the model. The speaker concludes that while MES can experience large moves, the requirements for MES are not expected to change significantly, and traders should not worry about it as it is rare.
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Strategytracking and monitoring
Assetfutures
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerMES continues to go up
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopif MES comes down
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility could increase requirements
- Potential for unexpected price movements