Trade idea
Trade idea Crypto giveaway
Tom Sosnoff is giving away $1 million in cryptocurrency and 50,000 free subscriptions to Lost Dog to celebrate its debut. This is a marketing strategy to attract new users and promote the platform. The free crypto is available to US residents, and non-US residents can also get a free one-year subscription. The initiative aims to scale the platform, improve its accuracy through user interaction, and create a moat against competition.
View full notes
StrategyCrypto giveaway
Time horizonOne year
Entry / triggerFree crypto giveaway for new users
Target / exitFree subscription to Lost Dog
Invalidation / stopNo specific stop or invalidation mentioned
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Regulatory risks for non-US residents
- Market volatility of crypto assets
Trade idea
SPX selling zero-day options and buying long wings
The speaker suggests that selling zero-day options and buying long wings can be a strategy for managing risk in the SPX. They note that adjustments are necessary due to SPX fluctuations, and the approach involves frequent recentering of long wings. The strategy is based on the idea that frequent adjustments can help capture volatility while managing risk.
View full notes
Strategyselling zero-day options and buying long wings
Assetindex
Expiration3 weeks
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdaily trading with frequent adjustments
Target / exitrecentering long wings based on SPX fluctuations
Invalidation / stopadjustments based on SPX movements
SpeakerSol
Structure / legs- zero-day short
- long wings (3 weeks out)
Risks- volatility in SPX
- need for frequent adjustments
- potential for large losses if SPX moves against the position
Trade idea
SPX strangle
The strategy involves selling a zero-day strangle and buying long wings at the 30-day expected move. Adjustments are only necessary on days with significant price movements (over 1/2%). The speaker emphasizes that the difference in results between staying in the zeros or adjusting is minimal, and the strategy is based on extensive backtesting over 2 years.
View full notes
Strategystrangle
Assetindex
Expirationzero-day
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / trigger30-day expected move levels
Target / exitprofit from volatility compression
Invalidation / stopsignificant price movements (over 1/2%)
SpeakerRaphael
Structure / legs- sell zero-day strangle
- buy long wings at 30-day expected move
Risks- Significant price movements may require adjustments
- Volatility may not compress as expected
- Market conditions may change
Trade idea
MU shorting a directional stock with high volatility
MU is a directional stock with high volatility. Shorting it when it is at a new high can be profitable if the price reverts to a previous level or consolidates. However, the risk of a significant upward move must be managed, and the trade should be monitored closely.
View full notes
Strategyshorting a directional stock with high volatility
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term, with potential for quick reversal
Entry / triggerStock is at a new high, with high volatility
Target / exitPrice reverts to a previous level or consolidates
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward move beyond expected range
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility can lead to larger-than-expected price swings
- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Liquidity issues in the stock
Trade idea
N/A N/A
The speaker discusses the importance of volatility in trading, noting that it affects the expected move of a stock. When volatility increases, the range of potential price movement widens, allowing traders to set more reasonable stops and manage risk effectively. This suggests a potential trade idea where traders can use volatility to set stop-loss levels and manage risk in their positions.
View full notes
StrategyN/A
AssetN/A
ExpirationN/A
Time horizonN/A
Entry / triggerN/A
Target / exitN/A
Invalidation / stopN/A
SpeakerN/A
Risks- Volatility can change rapidly
- Market conditions can shift unexpectedly
N/A
Trade idea
Trade idea selling options
The speaker expresses a strong interest in selling options, particularly weekly futures options, as a potential full-time income source. They mention being a 'numbers guy' and being inspired by YouTube gurus who have transitioned to full-time trading. The speaker is torn between their current job and pursuing options trading full-time, but ultimately encourages taking the risk and following one's passion. The idea is based on the speaker's personal desire and belief in the viability of options trading as a sustainable income source.
View full notes
Strategyselling options
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggertrading options with a 45-day expiration
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Financial risk due to potential losses in options trading
- Emotional risk of leaving a stable job for an uncertain income source
- Market risk due to the volatility of options trading
Insight
Lost Dog's Value Assessment Framework
Lost Dog provides a value assessment framework for professionals by analyzing their professional history, salary history, education, internships, special projects, languages, certifications, and skills. This assessment generates a 'Lost Dog score' that represents the individual's actual value in their current role and suggests the salary they should be realizing in the marketplace. The framework aims to help professionals negotiate better salaries and make informed career decisions.
View full notes
Applicable when- professional career development
- salary negotiation
- career planning
Limitations- The framework relies on accurate and complete data provided by the user
- It may not account for market-specific factors or unique job roles
- The effectiveness depends on the user's ability to interpret and act on the data provided
Insight
Portfolio Optimization Through Data Integration
The transcript discusses a platform that integrates portfolio data with actionable insights to optimize returns. It treats both investment and career aspects similarly, using data from platforms like Schwab, Robinhood, and Tasty. The system provides insights on how to improve portfolio returns by analyzing current allocations and suggesting actionable steps. This approach emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making in both investment and career planning.
View full notes
Applicable when- Data integration for portfolio optimization
- Actionable insights for investment and career decisions
Limitations- Depends on accurate and timely data input
- Requires user engagement with the platform's features
Insight
AI-Powered Platform Benefits from User Interaction
Lost Dog is an AI-powered platform that improves its accuracy and value to users with more input and use. The more users interact with the platform, the smarter the large language models become, enhancing the platform's overall performance and utility for users.
View full notes
Applicable when- User engagement with AI platforms
Limitations- Dependent on user interaction and data input
Insight
Crypto Adoption and Wealth Creation
The speaker highlights that crypto has been one of the best-performing asset classes since 2009, yet only 25% of adult Americans have owned it. This suggests a significant untapped market for crypto adoption. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the 'map behind wealth creation' as a means to build wealth, indicating that financial literacy and strategic investment are key to wealth creation. The platform Lost Dog aims to democratize access to financial markets, career compensation, and portfolio optimization, suggesting a broader vision of financial empowerment.
View full notes
Applicable when- crypto adoption
- wealth creation
- financial literacy
Limitations- The claim is based on the speaker's perspective and not on empirical data.
- The effectiveness of Lost Dog's platform is not independently verified in the transcript.
Insight
Crypto as a Viable Value Play During Equity Crashes
The speaker discusses the possibility of a major equity crash and whether crypto could become the sole viable value play. They argue that crypto is too small and risky, with potential issues like quantum-based technology threats and single points of failure. They also note that a major equity crash would likely harm crypto as well.
View full notes
Applicable when- major equity crash
- crypto market dynamics
Limitations- crypto's volatility and regulatory risks
- uncertainty in market behavior during crashes
Insight
Strangle Strategy with Expected Move
The speaker outlines a strategy for trading strangles by buying long wings at the 30-day expected move, while selling the zero-day. This approach is based on extensive backtesting and research, with the idea that adjustments are only necessary on days with significant price movements (over 1/2%). The strategy emphasizes the importance of expected move levels and the minimal long-term difference between staying in the zeros or adjusting.
View full notes
Applicable when- 30-day expected move levels
- significant price movements (over 1/2%)
Limitations- Adjustments are required on days with significant price movements
- The strategy is not suitable for all market conditions
Insight
Market Liquidity and Derivatives
The speaker emphasizes that futures and options markets, such as ES (S&P 500), crude oil, gold, and silver, offer decent liquidity. They suggest that tokenized markets may offer more derivatives in the future, which could provide additional trading opportunities. This insight highlights the importance of liquidity in trading and the potential for future market expansion.
View full notes
Applicable when- futures markets
- options markets
- tokenized markets
Limitations- The speaker does not provide specific details on the timeline for tokenized markets offering derivatives.
- The recommendation is based on the speaker's opinion rather than empirical data.
Insight
Tax Sheltered Accounts in Canada
In Canada, tax sheltered accounts like TFSA and RRSP have restrictions on short selling strategies, limiting the use of options strategies such as strangles. Long positions, long options, long crypto, and covered calls are permitted. However, the regulatory environment is described as archaic and difficult to navigate, with attempts to change the rules being met with resistance from major banks. The speaker suggests that using inverse ETFs or controlled long short portfolios may be necessary to achieve short deltas, but these strategies are limited in scope due to regulatory constraints.
View full notes
Applicable when- Tax sheltered accounts in Canada
- Regulatory restrictions on short selling
Limitations- Regulatory restrictions limit the range of permissible strategies
- Resistance from major banks to regulatory changes
- Limited availability of brokers licensed in the US for Canadian residents
Insight
Volatility and Expected Move Relationship
Volatility is crucial for predicting expected price moves. If the volatility of a stock increases, the expected move also increases proportionally. For example, if volatility doubles from 20 to 40, the expected move doubles from $10 to $20. This relationship provides traders with ranges and expectations, enhancing predictability in market movements.
View full notes
Applicable when- volatility analysis
- expected price movement
- options trading
Limitations- Volatility is not a guaranteed predictor of exact price movements
- Market conditions can affect the accuracy of expected moves
Insight
Volatility and Expected Move
The speaker emphasizes the importance of volatility in trading, noting that it affects the expected move of a stock. When volatility increases, the range of potential price movement widens, allowing traders to set more reasonable stops and manage risk effectively. This insight highlights the practical application of volatility in setting trade parameters and managing risk.
View full notes
Applicable when- volatility changes
- price range analysis
Limitations- Requires accurate volatility measurement
- Not applicable to all market conditions
Insight
Trading as a Business
Trading can be viewed as a business, but it requires a significant commitment of time and resources. The speaker notes that trading was once a full-time business for half of their life, but it has since become a complementary part of other ventures. The key takeaway is that trading as a standalone business is challenging, and it's often more effective to integrate it with other business activities. This approach allows for a more balanced and sustainable trading career.
View full notes
Applicable when- trading as a business
- time commitment
- integration with other ventures
Limitations- Not all traders may find this approach suitable
- Requires significant capital and experience
Insight
Importance of Education Quality Over Cost
The speaker emphasizes that undergraduate education is the most critical aspect of life, where individuals mature, build confidence, and form important networks. They argue that attending the best possible school, even if it means taking on debt, is more valuable than opting for a cheaper alternative. The rationale is that the environment, friendships, and exposure to top-tier teachers and students significantly influence long-term success and personal development. This insight applies to situations where educational quality directly impacts future opportunities and career trajectories.
View full notes
Applicable when- undergraduate education
- long-term career development
- networking and exposure
Limitations- The argument assumes that the cost of education is manageable and that the benefits of attending a top-tier school outweigh the financial burden. It may not apply to individuals with limited financial means or those who prioritize other non
Insight
Admitting Mistakes as a Path to Growth
The speaker emphasizes the importance of admitting when one is wrong as a crucial step in personal and professional growth. This is framed as a necessary component for learning from mistakes and avoiding the pitfalls of stubbornness and narcissism. The claim is that individuals who cannot admit their errors are often characterized by low self-esteem and a tendency towards irrational behavior.
View full notes
Applicable when- personal growth
- professional development
Limitations- The statement is more philosophical than actionable, and it does not provide specific strategies for admitting mistakes in a trading context.
Q&A
What's the deal with Lost Dog?
Lost Dog is a platform designed to help career professionals assess their value in the job market and negotiate better salaries. It uses data from resumes and LinkedIn profiles to generate a 'Lost Dog score' that indicates the salary a professional should be realizing. The platform also provides guidance on upskilling and career decisions.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayLost Dog offers a data-driven approach to career professionals for salary negotiation and career planning.
Q&A
What's in it for me?
The platform offers benefits for working professionals, retirees with portfolios, and students. It provides actionable insights to improve career decisions and investment returns. For the first 50,000 subscribers, there are rewards including a share of 1 million in crypto, and a waived $100 annual fee for the first year.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayThe platform offers value through actionable insights and rewards for early subscribers.
Q&A
Why are you giving away the million dollars and Lost Dog for free?
The free crypto and Lost Dog subscription are part of a marketing strategy to scale the platform, improve its accuracy through user interaction, and create a moat against competition. The initiative allows users to try the platform for a year and decide whether to continue the subscription at $100 per year.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayThe giveaway is a way to attract new users and promote the platform's value through free access and user interaction.
Q&A
Can stable coins operate similarly to credit cards for daily transactions?
The speaker mentions that stable coins could operate similarly to credit cards for daily transactions, citing PIX in Brazil as a successful example. They also mention that Lost Dog is launching a stable coin and envision it functioning like a credit card for daily transactions.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayStable coins may be used for daily transactions, similar to credit cards, as demonstrated by PIX in Brazil and planned by Lost Dog.
Q&A
How often do long wings need to be readjusted when selling SPX zero-day options?
The speaker explains that long wings need to be readjusted frequently, especially on days with significant SPX movements, such as the 90-point increase mentioned. They suggest that adjustments are necessary to maintain the strategy's effectiveness.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayLong wings should be adjusted frequently based on SPX fluctuations to maintain the strategy's effectiveness.
Q&A
Is it possible to get assigned while a short strangle or straddle position is on?
No, you cannot get assigned intraday. Assignments typically occur after market close.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayAssignments for short strangles or straddles occur after market close, not intraday.
Q&A
What's the best trade you ever saw in the OEX pit?
The speaker recounts a story about two traders in the OEX pit who had a standoff where one said 'Sold' and the other said 'Buy him.' They eventually agreed on a large trade of 5,000 or 10,000 lots, which was considered one of the craziest trades due to the size and the egos involved.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayThe story highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for extreme behavior in high-stakes trading environments.
Q&A
How to grow tax sheltered accounts in Canada as aggressively as possible within the limitations?
The speaker suggests using LEAPS, long options, long stock, long crypto, and covered calls. However, they note that the downside risk during market declines can be significant. They also mention the availability of ETFs that track the downside, but the regulatory environment in Canada is restrictive, limiting the range of permissible strategies.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayUse long options and covered calls to grow tax sheltered accounts in Canada, while being mindful of the regulatory restrictions and potential downside risk.
Q&A
What is the optimal hedging strategy for a delta and Vega neutral options portfolio?
The optimal hedging strategy for a delta and Vega neutral options portfolio is to keep trade size in line and avoid over-adjusting positions. It is not recommended to use futures to offset deltas or to make large adjustments. The focus should be on monitoring trade size and managing risk through position control.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayMaintain trade size and avoid over-adjusting positions to manage risk effectively.
Q&A
Do you trade forex? How do you approach it giving a history of being a premium seller?
The speaker occasionally trades forex, primarily using currency futures and options. They prefer futures over spot forex due to its multidimensional nature, allowing for more strategic trading. They mention that spot forex is one-dimensional and not their preferred method, though they acknowledge its appeal due to leverage and improved platforms.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayThe speaker prefers trading currency futures and options over spot forex due to its multidimensional nature, allowing for more strategic trading.
Q&A
How many hours a day does someone need to put into trading?
The speaker mentions that they spend at least a couple of hours a day on trading, but this can vary depending on the individual's multitasking abilities and how they integrate trading into their daily routine. The speaker also notes that trading can be done during the day or overnight, depending on personal preference and schedule.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayTrading requires a consistent time commitment, but the exact number of hours can vary based on the trader's lifestyle and how they manage their time.
Q&A
What is more important in life: being right as much as possible or admitting when you are wrong?
The speaker believes that the ability to admit when one is wrong is more important than being right as much as possible. They argue that this ability is crucial for personal growth and avoiding the lowest form of life, which they describe as being unable to accept defeat or admit mistakes.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayAdmitting mistakes is a key trait for personal and professional growth, as it allows for learning and improvement.
Q&A
Is it possible to live off of options trading?
The speaker believes it is possible to live off of options trading, particularly by selling options. They express a desire to transition to full-time trading and provide for their family through this method. However, they acknowledge the risks and uncertainties involved in such a transition.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that options trading can be a viable income source, but it requires careful planning and risk management.
Q&A
What is the speaker's intention in the conversation?
The speaker is expressing gratitude for being late and apologizing, then wishing the audience a great day and indicating they will see them tomorrow.
View full notes
Actionable takeawayThe speaker is engaging in a polite exchange, acknowledging their lateness and expressing a positive outlook for the future interaction.