Trade idea
MU shorting the Nasdaq
The speaker suggests that shorting the Nasdaq is a better position than trading MU, as the Nasdaq is expected to decline. The speaker is moving into a short position on the Nasdaq, indicating a bearish outlook on the market. The rationale is that the Nasdaq is down while other indices like the S&P 500 and Russell are up, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment. The speaker also mentions that the Nasdaq is expected to have a bigger move than MU, making it a more attractive trade.
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Strategyshorting the Nasdaq
Assetequity
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerMarket conditions where the Nasdaq is expected to decline
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market risk due to potential upward movement in the Nasdaq
- Liquidity risk if the Nasdaq becomes illiquid
- Execution risk if the trade is not executed at the desired price
Trade idea
MU Iron Condor
The speaker recommends selling an iron condor on Micron (MU) due to the stock's recent price movement and high implied volatility. The trade is structured with a wide range and is considered a classic iron condor setup. The speaker emphasizes the potential for profit given the current market conditions and the stock's volatility.
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StrategyIron Condor
AssetEquity
ExpirationJuly
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price at 630
Target / exitProfit from volatility and price range
Invalidation / stopIf stock price moves outside the range
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- Call spread: 1450-1460
- Put spread: 630-640
Risks- Market volatility
- Price movement outside the expected range
Trade idea
MU Sell put options
The trader sold put options at the 800 strike level on Friday, expecting the underlying asset to close above that level. The trader was not at risk if the asset did not drop below the strike price after hours. The trader's exposure was until 5:30 or 6:00 Central Time, depending on the firm. The trader's strategy was to buy back the put options for a few pennies to close the position with minimal risk. The thesis is that the trader's risk was limited to the premium received, and the market movements after the close were not significant enough to affect the trade outcome.
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StrategySell put options
AssetEquity
ExpirationFriday
Time horizonUntil the expiration date
Entry / triggerMarket closes at 967 or higher
Target / exitBuy back the put options for a few pennies
Invalidation / stopIf the underlying asset drops below the strike price after hours
SpeakerPaul
Structure / legs- Put options at the 800 strike level
Risks- Market movements after the close could affect the trade outcome
- The trader's exposure could extend beyond the expected cutoff time
- The trader may have to pay more to buy back the put options if the market moves against them
Trade idea
MU wide strangle
The speaker is short a wide strangle in MU with a $300 width, adjusting it frequently and referring to it as a grinding trade.
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Strategywide strangle
Assetstock
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggernot specified
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakernot specified
Trade idea
MU rolling calls
The trader rolled calls on MU due to uncertainty about the stock's movement, but the stock's unexpected rally to $1050 raised concerns. The trade idea is based on the trader's belief that the stock's movement was not aligned with expectations, leading to a short position. The trader's thesis is that the stock's movement was not in line with the broader market sentiment, which was holding steady.
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Strategyrolling calls
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term, as the trader was rolling calls and monitoring the stock's movement.
Entry / triggerStock price was up 20% but the trader rolled calls due to uncertainty about the stock's movement.
Target / exitNot explicitly stated, but the trader expressed concern about the stock's movement.
Invalidation / stopThe trader's invalidation point was the stock's unexpected rally to $1050, which was not anticipated.
SpeakerTrader
Risks- The stock could continue to rally, leading to losses on the short position
- Market sentiment could shift, affecting the stock's performance
Trade idea
MU short-term trading with small position sizes
Micron (MU) is experiencing significant daily price movements of 5-10%, indicating high volatility. The speaker suggests that traders can capitalize on this by taking small positions (e.g., 25-50 shares) and aiming for a 10-15% return. The key is to manage risk effectively and avoid overexposure, as the market can move rapidly in either direction. The speaker also notes that the stock is currently unchanged, but the potential for movement exists, especially around earnings.
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Strategyshort-term trading with small position sizes
Assetstock
Time horizonShort-term (within 1-2 trading days)
Entry / triggerEarnings report today
Target / exitPotential 10-20% move
Invalidation / stopMarket close or significant news release
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- High volatility can lead to rapid losses
- Earnings report may result in unexpected price swings
- Market conditions can change quickly
Trade idea
MU shorting MU with earnings after market close
The speaker is short MU and believes that the larger move is not priced in. They expect a larger than expected move to the downside, as everything is skewed to the upside. The speaker acknowledges the possibility of a move to the upside but believes the downside is more likely.
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Strategyshorting MU with earnings after market close
Assetequity
Time horizonImmediate
Entry / triggerEarnings after market close
Target / exitAssumed $10 lower or $10 higher on the close
Invalidation / stopIf there's a larger than expected move to the downside
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected earnings report
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
MU earnings trade
The speaker is adjusting the strike prices for a Micron (MU) earnings trade, expecting a move of around 10 to 12%. The speaker believes that the increased volatility today makes earnings trades more favorable, as the pop in volatility can lead to better outcomes. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock will move up by the expected amount, with the strike prices adjusted to reflect this. The risks include the possibility that the stock does not move as expected, which could result in a loss.
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Strategyearnings trade
Assetstock
Expirationtomorrow
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggeradjust everything $100 down
Target / exit100 and 140
Invalidation / stopif the expected move does not materialize
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs- 1405 14 15 call
- 975 965 call
Risks- the stock may not move as expected
- volatility may not continue at the current level
- the earnings report may be disappointing
Trade idea
MU trading vehicle
The speaker views Micron (MU) as a great trading vehicle due to its high volatility and range-bound behavior. The speaker suggests that the market is ignoring risks and may eventually decline significantly, making MU a potential short-term trading opportunity. The speaker also notes that the evaluations of MU and other stocks like SanDisk are considered silly and stupid, indicating a potential overvaluation.
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Strategytrading vehicle
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerMarket is in a range-bound state with high volatility.
Target / exit200 to 210
Invalidation / stopMarket breaks out of the range or shows signs of a sustained trend.
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market may not follow the expected pattern.
- Volatility could lead to significant losses if the trade goes against the position.
Trade idea
MU selling calls
The speaker suggests that selling calls closer to the money is a better approach than the wheel strategy for shorting MU. The rationale is that the stock is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the risk-reward ratio is more favorable with shorter-dated options. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of position sizing and the need to consider the time frame of the trade. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the stock will not continue its upward trend and that the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
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Strategyselling calls
Assetstock
ExpirationMarch
Time horizonshort-term (2 days)
Entry / triggerbefore earnings report
Target / exitprofit from potential downward move
Invalidation / stopif the stock continues its upward trend
SpeakerScott
Risks- The stock could continue its upward trend, leading to a loss
- Shorter-dated options carry higher risk due to limited time to recover from a wrong trade
Trade idea
MU Scalping
The speaker executed a scalping trade on MU, entering at $666 and exiting at $686 for a $20 profit. The trade was based on the expectation of short-term price movements in a highly volatile market. The strategy relies on quick execution and the ability to capitalize on intraday price swings. The speaker later noted that the stock had risen to $736, indicating the potential for further volatility. This trade idea is suitable for traders who can quickly identify and act on short-term price movements in volatile stocks.
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StrategyScalping
AssetEquity
Time horizonIntraday
Entry / triggerIdentify short-term price movements in highly volatile stocks
Target / exitQuick profit from intraday price swings
Invalidation / stopExit if price moves against the trade or if the volatility subsides
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Adverse price movements in short time frames
- Market volatility may not persist
- Execution risk due to fast-moving prices
Trade idea
MU position management
The speaker mentions holding an existing position in Micron (MU) and being prepared to 'go down with the ship.' However, they also indicate adding to the position in a different way, suggesting a strategy of incremental buying. The reasoning is based on the belief that the market may continue to move in a favorable direction, despite short-term volatility. The proposed execution involves maintaining the existing position while selectively adding to it based on market conditions.
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Strategyposition management
Assetequity
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerexisting position
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market reversal could lead to losses.
- The speaker's strategy is not fully detailed, making it difficult to assess risk exposure accurately.
Trade idea
MU buying an inverse index fund to profit from a decline in the market
The speaker discusses buying an inverse index fund (MU) as a cheaper alternative to shorting an $800 stock. The speaker believes that the market is overvalued and that a decline is imminent, making the inverse fund a viable investment. The speaker also mentions that they have bought the fund at around 1850 and 1705, indicating a belief in the market's potential for a decline.
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Strategybuying an inverse index fund to profit from a decline in the market
Assetinverse index fund
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket decline
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further market decline
- Liquidity issues with inverse funds
Trade idea
MU shorting a directional stock with high volatility
MU is a directional stock with high volatility. Shorting it when it is at a new high can be profitable if the price reverts to a previous level or consolidates. However, the risk of a significant upward move must be managed, and the trade should be monitored closely.
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Strategyshorting a directional stock with high volatility
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term, with potential for quick reversal
Entry / triggerStock is at a new high, with high volatility
Target / exitPrice reverts to a previous level or consolidates
Invalidation / stopSignificant upward move beyond expected range
SpeakerTom
Risks- Volatility can lead to larger-than-expected price swings
- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Liquidity issues in the stock
Trade idea
MU sell puts
The speaker suggests selling puts on MU, indicating a bearish outlook. The trade is framed as a way to capitalize on potential market declines, with the speaker expressing a desire to 'miss the top' and 'sell the top.' The trade is described as not being the speaker's worst trade, suggesting a level of confidence in the strategy despite past losses.
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Strategysell puts
Assetequity
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerMarket is in a summer phase
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerTom
Risks- Market could move against the short position
- Volatility could increase, leading to higher risk
Trade idea
MU delta neutralization
The speaker discusses using futures for delta neutralization, specifically mentioning the use of stock for hedging in the case of MU. The strategy involves using futures to hedge against market movements, with a preference for micro futures due to their smaller size and ease of trading. The speaker also mentions the use of ES or NQ futures for hedging delta, indicating a preference for these instruments over stocks for broader market exposure.
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Strategydelta neutralization
Assetstock
Time horizonNot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerIf the market moves against the position
Target / exitNot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated
SpeakerJeff
Risks- Market volatility
- Liquidity issues with specific stocks or futures
- Inability to hedge effectively if the market moves rapidly
Trade idea
MU short position
The speaker and another individual have a short position on Micron (MU) and are discussing the probability of MU trading at $600 by the end of June. The speaker notes that statistically, the probability is likely zero, but they are using the platform to explore the prediction. This indicates a speculative short position based on the belief that the price will not reach $600 by the specified time.
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Strategyshort position
Assetequity
Expirationend of June
Time horizonmonth and a half
Entry / triggercurrent price
Target / exit600
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The price could rise above $600, leading to potential losses
- The prediction platform's accuracy is not guaranteed
Trade idea
MU long-term hold
The speaker has a long position in MU, which was up $3 at one point today. The position is being moved into a long-term hold position, indicating a belief in the stock's potential for continued growth. The speaker is cautious about the market's overall direction, but remains optimistic about MU's prospects.
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Strategylong-term hold
Assetequity
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggercurrent price
Invalidation / stopmarket conditions
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Underlying fundamentals may deteriorate
- Potential for short-term price declines
Q&A
Considering shorting Micron if it rallies. And what are the lessons learned?
The lessons learned are that the speaker did not trade it too big, and it just had such an incredible move.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker did not trade Micron too big and kept the position, which went much further than expected.
Q&A
What are your three favorite stocks to trade and why?
The speaker lists SLV, GLD, and MU as their favorite stocks to trade. They mention that these stocks are popular due to their liquidity and market activity. The speaker also notes that their choice of stocks can vary based on current market conditions and personal trading preferences.
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Actionable takeawayStock selection can vary based on market conditions and personal trading preferences. Liquidity and market activity are important factors in choosing stocks for trading.
Q&A
What is your opinion on MU after the market closes?
The speaker is short MU and believes that the larger move is not priced in. They expect a larger than expected move to the downside, as everything is skewed to the upside. The speaker acknowledges the possibility of a move to the upside but believes the downside is more likely.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is short MU and expects a larger than expected move to the downside.
Q&A
What is the expected move for Micron (MU) based on the earnings trade?
The speaker expects a move of around 10 to 12%, with the strike prices adjusted to reflect this. The expected move is based on the current volatility and the potential for a positive earnings report.
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Actionable takeawayThe expected move for Micron (MU) is around 10 to 12%, with the strike prices adjusted to reflect this. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock will move up by the expected amount.
Q&A
If you see a move like this, do you use wheel strategy or rolling to short it until it's settled on XYZ level, or do you prefer to short, take a profit, and walk away?
The speaker prefers to sell calls or call spreads rather than using the wheel strategy. The speaker believes that the stock is unlikely to continue its upward trend and that the risk-reward ratio is more favorable with shorter-dated options. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of position sizing and the need to consider the time frame of the trade.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that selling calls or call spreads is a better approach than the wheel strategy for shorting MU. The rationale is that the stock is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the risk-reward ratio is more favorable with shorter-dated options.
Q&A
Will Micron Technologies rally to trade over 1,000 by the end of the year 2026?
The speaker believes there is a 75 to 80% chance of yes, while the other participant believes it will be even higher, around 85 or 90%.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker and participant have differing opinions on the likelihood of Micron Technologies reaching a price above 1,000 by the end of 2026.
Q&A
Are you going to sell Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Netflix to buy MU?
The speaker confirms selling Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Netflix to buy MU, indicating a strategic shift in portfolio allocation.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is reallocating assets from tech giants to MU, suggesting a belief in MU's potential relative to the mentioned stocks.
Q&A
What are the chances that Micron (MU) trades at $600 by the end of June?
The speaker and another individual have a short position on Micron (MU) and are discussing the probability of MU trading at $600 by the end of June. The speaker notes that statistically, the probability is likely zero, but they are using the platform to explore the prediction.
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Actionable takeawayThe probability of Micron (MU) trading at $600 by the end of June is considered statistically unlikely, but the speaker is using the platform to explore the prediction.
Q&A
Do you have anything in Nvidia waiting?
The speaker does not have a position in Nvidia but has a position in MU, which is considered fine. The speaker is also long Netflix and short some puts on various strike prices.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is managing multiple positions across different assets, including long and short positions in equities and options.