Trade idea
Trade idea short strangles in crude oil
The speaker is adjusting their position in crude oil by covering shorts and entering short strangles, which are not performing well due to the unexpected price increase.
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Strategyshort strangles in crude oil
Entry / triggercrude oil moved up $5 overnight
SpeakerScott
Risks- unexpected price movements
- market volatility
Trade idea
Trade idea Iron condor with zero DTS and 30-day wings
Keep the trade open and roll shorts if holding positions
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StrategyIron condor with zero DTS and 30-day wings
Time horizonDaily
Entry / triggerSell zero DTS strangle if expecting movement, buy 30-day wings
Target / exit25% profit
Invalidation / stopClose the entire iron condor at 25% profit or keep wings open for next day
SpeakerScott
Risks- Premium costs
- Market movement
- Trade costs
Trade idea
Trade idea Spreads and iron condors
Trading spreads and iron condors can be more profitable than buying naked calls and puts, especially with smaller account sizes and defined risk.
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StrategySpreads and iron condors
Time horizonShort-term, intraday
Entry / triggerWhen the market moves 100 points to one side of the money
Invalidation / stopClosing the trade every day and adjusting strikes based on the market
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Margin costs
- Market volatility
- Overtrading or holding too many correlated positions
Trade idea
Trade idea strangles
strangles can be effective if the stock price moves within expected range
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Strategystrangles
Assetfutures
Time horizonintraday
Entry / triggerearnings report
Target / exit55 or 60 cents
Invalidation / stopstock price movement
Speakerspeaker
Risks- unexpected volatility
- earnings surprises
Trade idea
coreweave puts
high volatility and potential for large gains
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Strategyputs
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock trading at 55, implied volatility 107
Target / exit235-250
Invalidation / stopstock price movement
Speakerspeaker
Risks- stock price movement
- implied volatility changes
Trade idea
crude oil selling 245 puts and 3 to 305 call spread for 570
no risk to the upside
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Strategyselling 245 puts and 3 to 305 call spread for 570
Assetcommodity
Entry / triggerno risk to the upside
Target / exitpop of 80%
Invalidation / stopexplosive up moves
Speakerunknown
Trade idea
Trade idea
Rotating positions between NASDAQ and S&P based on market performance and risk tolerance.
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Time horizonNot specified
Entry / triggerIf you're short, consider rotating some out of NASDAQ and into S&Ps. If you're long both, consider taking the risk on buying NASDAQ right now because it's been punished.
SpeakerTom
Trade idea
Trade idea selling puts around the earnings trade
selling puts around the earnings trade
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Strategyselling puts around the earnings trade
Entry / triggeraround the earnings trade
SpeakerScott
Trade idea
Trade idea
Trade oil rather than companies that make money due to one-time gains.
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Entry / triggerIf you have an opinion on oil or whatever it is, trade the product rather than trading a company that make money because they made a good trade.
Q&A
What does the decline of SpaceX's value tell us about how the market prices the next big thing versus established businesses?
The decline of SpaceX's value indicates that the market may not price the next big thing as highly as established businesses with proven cash flow. The speaker discusses how the market's reaction to SpaceX's IPO and subsequent drop highlights this contrast.
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Actionable takeawayThe market may not value highly hyped IPOs as much as established businesses with proven cash flow.
Q&A
What do you think about SpaceX earnings next week? Are you going to roll your position?
The speaker plans to roll their SpaceX position this Friday to September and may reenter or roll again. They believe earnings won't significantly impact the stock, given the price drop from the IPO.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is rolling their position and does not expect earnings to have a significant impact.
Q&A
Do you think the future of trading platforms lies less in predicting markets and more in helping traders objectively verify they have a repeatable probabilistic edge before increasing risk?
The speaker believes the future of active trading will involve mechanical edges based on historical data, reducing mechanical mistakes, but traders will still need to be right about market movements.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that future trading platforms will focus on mechanical strategies and historical data to reduce errors, but traders will still need to make correct market predictions.
Q&A
If you're trading zero DTS every day to buy the wings a month out and save on the spread, do you close the entire iron condor let's say at a 25% profit or you keeping the wings open for the next day?
The speaker suggests keeping the trade open and rolling the shorts, but acknowledges that the trade can be closed at 25% profit. They also mention that the trade costs more money due to the back month wings.
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Actionable takeawayKeep the trade open and roll the shorts if holding positions, but be aware of the higher costs associated with the back month wings.
Q&A
Why did you change from buying naked calls and puts to selling premium?
The trader changed strategies due to the limitations of a small account size and the need for defined risk. Selling premium through spreads and iron condors allows for better risk management and profitability.
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Actionable takeawayTraders with small accounts should consider strategies with defined risk, such as spreads and iron condors, to manage risk and improve profitability.
Q&A
What type of liquidity do we need to see on the CME's new single stock futures?
High liquidity is needed before trading, and it's uncertain if any brokerage firms are offering them yet.
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Actionable takeawayHigh liquidity is required before trading CME's new single stock futures.
Q&A
Are you doing anything in Apple for earnings?
The speaker has no Apple position currently and plans to do something in Apple, likely related to earnings, which are expected tomorrow.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is considering a trade in Apple ahead of its earnings, which are scheduled for tomorrow.
Q&A
What is the expected move in crude oil?
The expected move in crude oil is under $12.
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Actionable takeawayExpected move in crude oil is under $12.
Q&A
Do you think with all the Clarity Act drama going on this weekend, it's about time to rotate into crypto?
The speaker believes the Clarity Act chatter has put a lid on crypto, but it might have a slight uptick. However, the speaker does not think it's time to rotate into crypto.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is cautious about rotating into crypto due to the Clarity Act's impact on stable coins and payment rails.
Q&A
Are investors underestimating the structural risk created by trillion dollar listings?
Goldman Sachs suggests that mega cap IPOs could push market concentration limits further, and the speaker agrees that investors may be underestimating the structural risks associated with these large listings.
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Actionable takeawayInvestors should be cautious about the potential structural risks posed by large-scale IPOs, as they may lead to increased market concentration and greater volatility.
Q&A
Was it just me or did it look like he had a special feature on the blow dryer today?
He got a bob. It needs a couple of months to grow in a little bit more.
Q&A
Does this scare you at all?
It has to. What's good for one is good for all. You want to be the stock that overperforms in your group, but you don't want to see anybody have an IPO like what we had in SpaceX.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker acknowledges that the potential for high returns in IPOs like SpaceX's is concerning, as it could lead to market concentration and structural risks.
Q&A
I followed your back ratio trade on BE and subsequently made a lot but then lost a lot on their big moves. My cost is $280 and it's now trading around 185. Suggestions.
The speaker suggests that the trade details should be reviewed, as they don't remember the specific trade. They mention that if the cost is $280 and the stock is now trading around $185, it's a one-lot position that has declined by $95. They acknowledge it as a big move but not a bad trade.
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Actionable takeawayReview the trade details to understand the strategy and consider whether to hold or close the position based on current market conditions.
Q&A
Don't you think the SpaceX day one investor knows to sell a little and wait for a rally? Aren't they smarter than that? If you are a SpaceX day one investor, are you unloading everything at 185? What trade would you suggest?
The speaker suggests selling a small amount and waiting for a rally, but acknowledges that the market is volatile and that the trade idea involves selling puts around the earnings trade.
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Actionable takeawayConsider selling puts around the earnings trade for SpaceX.
Q&A
Why do you think the market's been suffering?
The market has been suffering due to uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and the potential impact of earnings reports that may not reflect sustainable growth.
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Actionable takeawayThe market's performance is influenced by both macroeconomic factors like interest rates and the reliability of corporate earnings reports.
Q&A
What do you need to trade Southwest for?
The speaker is questioning the rationale for trading Southwest, suggesting that the company's performance might not be a reliable indicator for trading decisions.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is questioning the rationale for trading Southwest, suggesting that the company's performance might not be a reliable indicator for trading decisions.
Q&A
What is the current state of the market?
The market is experiencing a pullback, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ down from their all-time highs. The speaker notes that while the NASDAQ has dropped significantly, some stocks like Micron have shown strong performance, and the overall market sentiment is mixed.
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Actionable takeawayThe market is in a pullback phase, with mixed performance across different sectors and stocks.
Q&A
What do I trade? How do I do it?
The speaker discusses trading futures, options, and crypto, emphasizing the importance of understanding market outlook and using micro futures for retail traders due to their lower capital requirements and higher leverage.
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Actionable takeawayMicro futures are recommended for retail traders due to their lower capital requirements and higher leverage compared to mini or full futures.
Q&A
Is SpaceX under $100 attractive to you as either an intermediate term hold or a short-term trade?
60% of respondents found SpaceX under $100 attractive, while 40% did not. The speaker suggests that if the stock had been trading at $180 and dropped to $100, 100% would have been buyers, indicating a strong potential for a short-term trade.
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Actionable takeawayThe poll suggests a strong interest in SpaceX as a short-term trade if it drops to $100, indicating potential for a bullish trade if the stock continues to decline.
Q&A
They're going to close higher than here?
I think I'm going to say they're closing lower from here.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker anticipates a lower closing price than the current level, suggesting a bearish outlook for the market.