Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Silver is currently at 10.50, and the speaker suggests that the price movement is 'ridiculous,' indicating a potential overcorrection. The speaker implies that the price may drop to a lower level, making a short position a viable strategy. The speaker also mentions that there is no upper limit circuit breaker in the front month, suggesting that the market may continue to move in the short-term direction. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the price will revert to a more reasonable level.
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Strategyshorting silver due to potential overcorrection
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver is at 10.50
Target / exitsilver drops to a lower level
Invalidation / stopsilver continues to rise
SpeakerTom
Risks- silver could continue to rise
- market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker mentions that silver has experienced a significant move upwards, reaching $10.50, and expresses a desire for it to drop to $80. This indicates a short-term bearish bias. The speaker also references a previous ratio calculation, suggesting that the current price may be overvalued relative to gold. The trade idea is to short silver with a target at $80, given the potential for a correction based on the gold-to-silver ratio.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSilver price is above $10.50
Target / exitSilver price drops to $80
Invalidation / stopIf silver price rises above $110
Speakerunknown
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The trade may be invalidated if silver continues to rise above $110.
- The short-term nature of the trade requires quick execution and monitoring.
Trade idea
Oil Strangles
The speaker believes that oil prices will revert to the 70-80 range by midyear due to the resolution of the Iran war. The current volatility is already priced in, so the best play is to short premium by selling strangles. This strategy is based on the expectation that the price will not continue to rise beyond the 125-130 range.
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StrategyStrangles
AssetCommodity
ExpirationNot specified
Time horizonMidyear
Entry / triggerPrice is above the 70-80 range
Target / exitPrice reverts to the 70-80 range
Invalidation / stopIf the price continues to rise above 125 or 130, the trade may be invalidated.
SpeakerTimmer and Scott
Structure / legs- Sell puts at 65 or 70
- Sell calls above 125 or 130
Risks- The price may not revert to the 70-80 range.
- The market may continue to rise beyond the 125-130 range, invalidating the trade.
- Volatility may increase further, making the trade less effective.
Trade idea
gold buying on a perceived bottom
The speaker believes gold has made a bottom and is long gold, indicating a bullish outlook on the commodity. This is based on the observed market behavior and the speaker's assessment of the broader market conditions.
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Strategybuying on a perceived bottom
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerconfirmed bottoming action in gold
Invalidation / stopif gold continues to decline below the identified bottom
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Potential for continued decline if the bottoming action is not confirmed
- Market volatility due to external factors like crude oil prices
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker is in a strangle position on SLV, shorting the 101 call and the 119 put with 18 days to expiration. The position is considered misaligned due to the current price of SLV being $81, which is significantly below the put strike price of 119. The speaker is advised to recenter the trade by buying back the guts and adjusting the position to allow for some upside delta. The rationale is that the position is not aligned with the current market conditions, and the trader needs to adjust the strategy to account for the current price level and volatility.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationMarch 20th
Time horizon18 days
Entry / triggercurrent price of SLV is $81
Target / exitwaiting for IV to flatten
Invalidation / stopposition makes no sense due to misalignment between strike prices and current price
SpeakerDaniel
Structure / legs- short 101 call
- short 119 put
Risks- Misalignment between strike prices and current price
- Volatility may not flatten as expected
- Potential for large losses if the underlying asset moves significantly
Trade idea
silver short strangle
The current short strangle position is not optimal due to the high risk-to-reward ratio. By re-centering the trade in April, the trader can capture additional premium and reduce the risk of a large adverse move. This strategy is effective when volatility remains high, as it allows for capturing the premium while reducing the risk of a large adverse move. The break-even point is around 92, and the trader needs to make back the lost money on the trade.
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Strategyshort strangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggervolatility remains high
Target / exitcapture additional premium
Invalidation / stopif silver does not rally
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- volatility may decrease
- silver may not rally
- transaction costs may eat into profits
Trade idea
Silver strangle
The speaker suggests selling a strangle on silver, which involves selling both a put and a call option at different strike prices. This strategy is suitable when the market is expected to remain within a certain range, allowing the seller to profit from the premium collected. The speaker also mentions that this trade is less aggressive compared to others, indicating a conservative approach.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the market is expected to remain within a certain range
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected
Invalidation / stopif the price moves outside the expected range
SpeakerVic
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movements
- slippage in illiquid markets
Trade idea
Gold Long-term holding with periodic adjustments
The speaker is bullish on gold, suggesting that it could move back to the high end of its range. They note that gold has been rangebound and that the current low end of the range may be a good entry point. However, they caution against being overly optimistic and suggest that traders should be prepared to adjust their positions if the market moves against them.
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StrategyLong-term holding with periodic adjustments
AssetCommodity
Time horizonShort to medium term
Entry / triggerGold trading within a range, with a focus on the low end of the range
Target / exitPotential for a move to the high end of the range
Invalidation / stopIf gold drops below the low end of the range, consider reducing position size or exiting
SpeakerSpeaker 1
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for a reversal in the trend
- Failure to adjust positions in response to changing market conditions
Trade idea
SLV volatility premium
The speaker is short volatility in the silver ETF (SLV) due to the recent sharp move in the price of silver. They are short both puts and calls, expecting the market to rally back $3, which would bring them back to a flat position. The strategy relies on the market moving in a specific direction, and the risk is that the market could move against the short position, leading to losses. The speaker acknowledges the illiquidity of the SI options and prefers SLV for better liquidity and execution.
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Strategyvolatility premium
Assetcommodity
ExpirationMarch
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket rally back $3
Target / exitflat position
Invalidation / stopmarket moves against the short position
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market moves against the short position
- volatility increases
- liquidity issues in the options market
Trade idea
SLV volatility trading
The speaker suggests that silver is experiencing extreme volatility due to retail participation, similar to meme stocks. The market is expected to experience a sell-off, with potential for a significant price drop. The strategy involves shorting silver during this period, with a focus on the potential for a rapid decline. The risks include the possibility of a sudden price reversal or continued rally.
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Strategyvolatility trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term (days to weeks)
Entry / triggerHigh volatility and large price swings in silver
Target / exitPrice drop of $10 per day for a week
Invalidation / stopPrice reversal or sustained rally
SpeakerLarry
Risks- Price reversal
- Sustained rally
- High volatility
Trade idea
silver short-term trade
The speaker believes that silver is likely to make new highs by February, based on statistical analysis and market sentiment. The speaker suggests that traders should consider a long position in silver, but also warns of the risks associated with this trade, including the potential for large losses if the market moves against the position. The speaker also notes that the trade should be executed with caution, given the high volatility of the market.
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Strategyshort-term trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term, with the speaker suggesting a potential for a new high within the next hour
Entry / triggerIf silver makes new highs by February
Target / exitNot explicitly stated, but the speaker suggests a potential for a 5% daily move
Invalidation / stopThe speaker warns of the risk of the trade breaking and the potential for large losses if the market moves against the position
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- High volatility
- Potential for large losses if the market moves against the position
- Uncertainty about the timing of the new high
Trade idea
silver short-term bullish trade
The speaker discusses a poll indicating that 64% of respondents believe silver will make a new high, with the results coming in as 64% to 36%. This suggests a bullish sentiment towards silver, and the speaker implies that the market may be on the verge of a new high. The speaker's comment about the results being 'your 2/3 1/3' indicates a strong majority in favor of a new high. This could be interpreted as a bullish trade idea, with the entry condition being the confirmation of a new high in silver.
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Strategyshort-term bullish trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSilver making a new high
Target / exitNew high in silver
Invalidation / stopFailure to make a new high
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal
- Failure to reach the new high
- Volatility in silver prices
Trade idea
CL calendar spread
The current spread of $9 in crude oil is due to uncertainty in the front month, which is priced higher than the back month. While the spread may narrow, it is not guaranteed, and traders should be cautious about assuming mean reversion. The spread reflects market sentiment and physical deliverables, not arbitrage opportunities. Traders should consider the risk of further widening and the potential for the spread to remain wide.
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Strategycalendar spread
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWide spread due to uncertainty in front month
Target / exitPotential narrowing of the spread
Invalidation / stopSpread widening further
SpeakerScott
Risks- Spread widening further
- Market conditions changing
- Uncertainty in future delivery
Trade idea
Gold strangle
The speaker is short a strangle on gold with a wide range of 1200 points, but the position has narrowed to 800 points. The speaker needs gold to rally another 100 points to roll down calls or adjust the position. The thesis is that gold prices need to stabilize for the next 30 days to allow for position management, with the expectation that the price will eventually decline to the 2000s. The invalidation is if gold prices do not stabilize or move significantly.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril
Time horizon30 days
Entry / triggergold prices stabilize for 30 days
Target / exitroll down calls or close position
Invalidation / stopif gold prices do not stabilize or move significantly
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- market volatility
- failure to stabilize gold prices
- loss on short position
Trade idea
CRUDE OIL put spread
The speaker discusses the impact of high volatility on options strategies, particularly for those who are short a put spread. The speaker explains that in a high volatility environment, the market may not move much in the short term, making it difficult for strategies that rely on directional movement. The speaker suggests that the market is pricing in the expectation of significant movement, which can delay actual price changes. This indicates that the speaker is cautioning traders about the risks of shorting options in a high volatility environment, as the market may not move as expected.
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Strategyput spread
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigh volatility environment
Target / exitno specific target mentioned
Invalidation / stopmarket movement or volatility decrease
SpeakerTom
Risks- market movement
- volatility decrease
- time decay
Trade idea
crude oil call spread
The speaker proposes a call spread strategy on crude oil, selling 64 puts and buying 7476 calls for $229. The trade has no risk to the upside, and the speaker believes the market will stay within the expected range. The trade is considered conservative compared to naked short puts, and the speaker highlights the potential for profit if crude oil remains stable.
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Strategycall spread
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust 17th
Time horizon50 days
Entry / triggercurrent price around 64
Target / exitno risk to the upside
Invalidation / stopif crude oil moves significantly beyond the expected range
SpeakerMichael Sailor
Structure / legs- sell 64 puts
- buy 7476 calls
Risks- significant price movement beyond expected range
- volatility changes
Trade idea
silver short calls and puts
The recent sharp move in silver and its subsequent consolidation suggest a potential reversal. By shorting calls and puts, the trader can profit from the price range. This strategy is suitable for short-term traders who can monitor the market closely and adjust positions as needed.
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Strategyshort calls and puts
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price has experienced a sharp move and is consolidating
Target / exitprofit from the price consolidation
Invalidation / stopif silver continues to move in a new direction
SpeakerTom
Structure / legs- short calls above
- short puts below
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected price movement
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
silver meme stock-like trading
The speaker discusses how silver behaved similarly to a meme stock, with price movements that defied expectations. This suggests that traders should consider the possibility of rapid price changes in commodities, similar to meme stocks. The speaker's experience with silver indicates that such assets can be volatile and require a flexible approach. The thesis is that silver's price movement can be unpredictable, and traders should be prepared for sudden changes in direction.
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Strategymeme stock-like trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggersilver price movement upwards
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerspeaker
Risks- volatility
- unexpected market shifts
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
gold contrarian
The speaker suggests that after a large move in gold, a contrarian approach may be appropriate. They mention selling puts as a strategy, which implies a bullish bias, but also note that the market is volatile and requires careful risk management. The speaker's focus on micro contracts suggests a preference for smaller positions to mitigate risk in such environments.
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Strategycontrarian
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerafter a large move in gold
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
Speakerunknown
Risks- large price movements
- volatility
- market direction reversal
Trade idea
gold straddles
Long straddles on gold and silver have been profitable due to market volatility. The strategy works when there is anticipated price movement, and the trader is willing to accept the risk of a stable market. The market maker's need to hedge the trade influences the execution price, which should be close to the midpoint for liquid markets.
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Strategystraddles
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket volatility or anticipated price movement
Target / exitprofit from price movement
Invalidation / stoploss if price remains stable
SpeakerSteven
Risks- Market remains stable
- Liquidity issues
- Execution price not favorable
Trade idea
HG Hedging
The speaker suggests that copper may offer more upside potential compared to other metals like silver, which are perceived as overbought. However, the speaker cautions that hedging with copper is not a guaranteed strategy and depends on the context of the trade. If the goal is to keep the position open for hedging purposes, copper could be considered, but if the trade can be exited, it's better to do so. The speaker also notes that the relationship between silver, gold, and copper as hedges is not well-defined and may not be reliable.
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StrategyHedging
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerIf the trader is short silver and wants to hedge the position, buying copper contracts could be considered as a hedge.
Target / exitThe speaker suggests that copper has more room to the upside compared to other metals, but the exact target is not specified.
Invalidation / stopThe speaker warns that if the trade can be exited, it's better to do so, implying that the trade may be invalid if the market moves against the hedge.
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- The effectiveness of copper as a hedge is uncertain
- The market conditions are volatile and unpredictable
- The speaker has no personal experience with copper trading
Trade idea
silver spread trading
The speaker suggests that the spread between gold and silver is a false hedge, as it has fluctuated significantly over time. The speaker indicates that the spread was previously $51 but has since dropped to lower levels, suggesting that the hedge is not reliable. The speaker also mentions that trading copper against silver might be a better alternative, but acknowledges that copper is less liquid and has wider options, requiring caution.
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Strategyspread trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the spread between gold and silver is at a high level
Target / exitthe spread reverts to a lower level
Invalidation / stopif the spread continues to widen beyond historical levels
Speakerspeaker
Risks- The spread may continue to widen beyond historical levels
- The liquidity of copper is lower than that of silver
- The options for copper may be wider, increasing the risk of large losses
Trade idea
CL call spread
take advantage of market condition
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Strategycall spread
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercrude oil is up 250
Target / exitcollect between one-third to 25% of the width of strikes
Invalidation / stopcall skew in crude oil
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market reversal
- volatility drop
Trade idea
silver straddle/strangle
The speaker discusses the risks of being long silver during a sharp decline, suggesting that a short position or a straddle/strangle strategy could have been used to protect against downside risk. The strategy involves adjusting delta to ensure net exposure is slightly short, which can help mitigate losses during a downturn. The invalidation level is if silver moves upward or volatility decreases, which would indicate the strategy is no longer effective.
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Strategystraddle/strangle
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen silver is expected to move significantly downward
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopif silver moves upward or volatility decreases
SpeakerLarry
Risks- volatility risk
- market direction risk
- execution risk
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL selling puts
The speaker sells puts on crude oil, expecting the price to remain below the strike price. The speaker notes that the puts have a delta of 23, indicating a moderate sensitivity to price changes. The speaker acknowledges that this trade has been a losing one so far but believes that the market may provide better opportunities in the future. The speaker also mentions that the trade is part of a broader strategy of being short crude oil, which has been a long-term position.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercrude oil price is below a certain level
Target / exitprice increase to a specified level
Invalidation / stopprice drops below a certain level
Speakerspeaker
Risks- the price could drop below the strike price
- the market could move against the position
- the trade could result in a loss
Trade idea
natural gas strangle
The speaker suggests selling strangles with deltas between 16 and 20, placing calls 2.5 times further out of the money than puts. This strategy accounts for the asymmetric risk profile of natural gas, where upside potential is theoretically unlimited while downside is capped. The speaker also mentions that straddles are not suitable for natural gas due to its high volatility and limited downside potential.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerwhen natural gas is trading under three bucks
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopif natural gas moves significantly against the position
SpeakerVince
Risks- significant downside risk if natural gas moves against the position
- limited upside potential if natural gas remains within the strangle range
Trade idea
gold put selling
The speaker mentions buying back gold puts that were sold the previous day, indicating a short position in gold. The puts were sold when the price was around $7 or $8 lower than the previous day's price, which was up $100. The speaker considers this a 'good trade' and suggests that the position was closed or adjusted. The thesis is that the speaker is short gold, and the trade was based on the expectation that the price would not rise significantly, allowing the puts to be profitable.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice at a certain level
Target / exitprice at a lower level
Invalidation / stopprice at a higher level
SpeakerTom Sausnoff
Risks- price increase
- volatility
- time decay
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker suggests maintaining the same strangle or adjusting the strikes up by a buck for SLV, given the stock is up slightly. This trade idea is based on the assumption that the stock will continue to move in a favorable direction, allowing for profit from the strangle. The expected move of $8 is mentioned, indicating a potential for significant price movement. The trade is considered a short-term strategy with a focus on capturing volatility.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expiration215
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock is up small
Target / exitmove the strikes up by a buck
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the trade
Speakerspeaker
Risks- market volatility
- unexpected price movements
- liquidity issues
Trade idea
Gas put selling
The speaker discusses a trade idea involving selling June 250 puts on gas, which is at its lowest level in a long time. The trade has an 88% probability of profit, with a capital requirement of approximately $1,400. The trade is considered a low-risk, high-reward opportunity with a potential return of over 20% within a short time frame. The speaker suggests that this trade is a good example of how to capitalize on a market at its lowest point.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
ExpirationJune
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice at or near all-time low
Target / exit350
Invalidation / stopprice moves significantly higher
SpeakerMax
Risks- Price could move significantly higher
- Market volatility could increase
Trade idea
CL pairs trade
The speaker suggests that while crude oil and gold may show divergence, they are not a classic pair with high correlation. Therefore, a pairs trade between CL and GC is not recommended as a reliable hedge. However, if a trader chooses to proceed, they should focus on micro-level trades and be aware of the low correlation and potential for divergence.
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Strategypairs trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerCrude oil near recent highs
Target / exitGold near recent lows
Invalidation / stopHigh correlation between crude oil and gold is required for the trade to be effective
SpeakerScott
Risks- Low correlation between assets
- Market volatility
- Potential for divergence
Trade idea
GLD strangle
The speaker mentions selling a strangle in gold, indicating a short volatility strategy. The strangle involves selling both a put and a call option at different strike prices, aiming to profit from a range-bound market. The speaker's focus on volatility suggests that the trade is based on the expectation of limited price movement in the near term.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggermarket volatility
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Market moves beyond the strangle's range
- Implied volatility decreases
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL short crude oil
crude oil is more of a seller rather a buyer
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Strategyshort crude oil
Assetcommodity
Entry / triggercurrent price at 85
Target / exitprice jumps back up to 86-88
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Trade idea
silver shorting silver based on its recent price movement
The speaker sold silver above $76 in the morning, anticipating a price drop. The trade is based on the expectation that silver would move lower, with a target at $73. The invalidation level is set at $78, indicating that if silver rises above this level, the trade would be considered invalid. The trade is part of a broader strategy involving gold and silver pairs, with the speaker noting that the trade is moving all over the place due to the volatility of silver.
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Strategyshorting silver based on its recent price movement
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver traded above $76
Target / exitsilver price drops to $73
Invalidation / stopsilver price rises above $78
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Price could move against the trade if silver rises instead of falling
- Volatility could lead to larger-than-expected price swings
Trade idea
gold buying at 4417-4420 range
The speaker bought gold at 4417-4420, indicating a bullish outlook on gold. The speaker's action is based on the recent price movements and the market's reaction to the moves in gold and silver. The trade idea is to capitalize on the upward trend in gold, with the entry point set at the mentioned range. The speaker's strategy is to participate in the market's short-term movements, as they have made multiple trades in the morning.
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Strategybuying at 4417-4420 range
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice above 4417-4420 range
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerBraard
Risks- Market volatility
- Price reversal
- Execution risk
Trade idea
natural_gas strangle
The speaker is long strangles on natural gas, indicating a bullish outlook. They mention experiencing significant daily moves (10% to 50%) and are considering rolling positions or taking a loss. The strategy involves profiting from volatility, with the speaker acknowledging the risks of large moves and the need for a therapist due to the stress involved.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket move
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- Large price swings
- Volatility risk
- Emotional stress from high-risk trades
Trade idea
gold mean reversion
The speaker believes that gold is overbought and may correct from its current level of $4,900. They suggest that the market may be in a state of extreme price, which could lead to a mean reversion. The speaker also mentions that they are short silver and long gold as a hedge, indicating a strategic position based on the relative performance of the two metals.
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Strategymean reversion
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggergold at $4,900
Target / exitgold at $4,650
Invalidation / stopgold at $5,000
SpeakerScott
Risks- Market conditions can change rapidly
- Opinions are subjective and not guaranteed to be accurate
Trade idea
silver trend following
The speaker suggests that following the trend in silver could be a good strategy, as the price has increased significantly from 52 to 85. However, they also note that they do not trade that way and consider the question to be one that should be asked of others. The speaker implies that the trend was a friend in this case, but they do not endorse the strategy themselves.
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Strategytrend following
Assetcommodity
Time horizonnot explicitly stated
Entry / triggerwhen the trend is favorable
Target / exitnot explicitly stated
Invalidation / stopnot explicitly stated
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Trend reversal
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
silver call spread
Arthur proposed a $10 wide bull call spread on silver for July 26, with strike prices of 310 to 321. The trade is intended to benefit from management, but the specific management strategy or risk mitigation plan is not detailed in the transcript. The trade idea is based on the assumption that the market will move in a bullish direction, allowing the call spread to profit from the price increase.
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Strategycall spread
Assetcommodity
ExpirationJuly 26
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerbefore management
Target / exitpotential benefit from management
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerArthur
Structure / legs- call option with strike price 310
- call option with strike price 321
Risks- Market volatility
- Inadequate management strategy
- Potential for loss if the market does not move as expected
Trade idea
CRUDE_OIL sell premium
The speaker suggests that crude oil is rangebound and advises selling premium if necessary. They believe the price is unlikely to hold above 74 and prefer being at 67. They are not willing to go short at 74 but would consider selling premium. If the price approaches 80, they would be more open to selling short. The trade idea is to sell premium in the current range, with a target of 77 to 80 and an invalidation level at 74.
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Strategysell premium
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice above 74
Target / exit77 to 80
Invalidation / stopprice drops below 74
Speakerspeaker
Risks- price drops below 74
- volatility increases
- market sentiment shifts
Trade idea
soybeans strangle
The speaker suggests selling a 1290/1120 strangle on soybeans for a credit of $712. This is a delta-neutral trade with a high IVR of 93, indicating a potential for significant returns. The trade is considered attractive due to the high implied volatility and the potential for a 75% pop. The speaker also mentions that this trade is being considered alongside a Dell trade due to the high IVR observed in soybeans.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggercurrent price level
Target / exitcredit of $712
Invalidation / stopif the price moves beyond the strangle range
SpeakerThe bat
Structure / legs- sell 1290 call
- sell 1120 put
Risks- volatility risk
- time decay
- market movement beyond the strangle range
Trade idea
SLV strangle
The speaker is short strangles on SLV, with the put at 51.48 and the call at 52.49. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock is on its lows and will not move significantly. The speaker mentions that the trade is expected to have a 64% pop and an IVR of 31. The trade is considered a good opportunity due to the current market conditions and the potential for a profit.
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Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock is on its lows
Target / exit1.00
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves significantly against the trade
SpeakerTony
Structure / legs- short put at 51.48
- short call at 52.49
Risks- Significant market movement against the trade
- Time decay reducing the value of the options
Trade idea
Silver sell on the open
The speaker suggests that silver had a significant sell-off and a small bounce back, but is now showing no movement. The speaker believes that the price will break back down, and proposes selling on the open. The speaker also mentions that they would love to go short on the open, but acknowledges that it is not possible. The speaker's reasoning is based on the belief that the price will continue to decline, and that the small float of the stock will lead to significant price movements.
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Strategysell on the open
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersell on the open
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- The price may not break back down as expected
- The small float may not lead to significant price movements
- The speaker's personal experience may not be universally applicable
Trade idea
CRUDE OIL options selling
The speaker believes crude oil is overrated due to excessive buying activity and inflated premium levels in options. They sold calls on crude oil, expecting the premium to revert to more normal levels. The trade is based on the idea that the market has overreacted to bullish sentiment, and the premium will eventually normalize. The risks include continued bullish momentum and unexpected price increases.
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Strategyoptions selling
Assetcommodity
ExpirationApril 16th
Time horizonshort-term (day trading)
Entry / triggermarket opens with elevated premium
Target / exitpremium reverts to previous levels
Invalidation / stoppremium continues to rise beyond initial levels
SpeakerJerry
Risks- continued bullish momentum
- unexpected price increases
- volatility spikes
Trade idea
silver short-term trading
The speaker executed a short-term trading strategy on silver, selling at higher price levels and buying at lower ones. They emphasized the importance of timing and market conditions, indicating that traders should be vigilant about price movements and adjust their positions accordingly. The strategy involves active monitoring and quick decision-making to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations.
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Strategyshort-term trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerPrice reaches a specific level (e.g., 93)
Target / exitPrice drops to a lower level (e.g., 87)
Invalidation / stopPrice moves against the trade (e.g., rises above 93)
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Timing errors
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
oil selling a call option
The trade idea involves selling a call option on oil with the expectation that the price will remain below the strike price, allowing the seller to keep the premium as profit. The strategy is based on the assumption that the market will not move significantly above the strike price within the time frame of the option. This approach is suitable for a short-term horizon and requires monitoring the price movements of oil to ensure the trade remains valid.
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Strategyselling a call option
Assetcommodity
Expirationnext Wednesday the 11th
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerselling a call option on oil
Target / exitprofit from the premium if the price remains below the strike price
Invalidation / stoploss if the price rises above the strike price
SpeakerMark
Structure / legs- 100 call for next Wednesday the 11th
Risks- loss if the price of oil rises above the strike price
- market volatility could impact the outcome
Trade idea
Gold Strangle
The trader sold 10 delta puts in gold to collect premium, expecting the market to remain within a certain range. The trade was based on historical research indicating that the optimal delta range for premium collection is between 16 and 22. The trader noted that the premium collected was significant, and the trade was part of a broader strategy to manage risk and reward effectively.
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StrategyStrangle
AssetCommodity
Time horizonShort-term, with a focus on premium collection.
Entry / triggerWhen the market is expected to remain within a certain range, based on volatility and market sentiment.
Target / exitCollect premium based on the delta range (10 delta in this case).
Invalidation / stopIf the market moves beyond the expected range, the trade may be invalidated.
SpeakerVince
Risks- Market volatility could lead to losses if the price moves beyond the expected range.
- The trader may need to adjust the position if market conditions change unexpectedly.
Trade idea
crude oil selling 245 puts and 3 to 305 call spread for 570
no risk to the upside
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Strategyselling 245 puts and 3 to 305 call spread for 570
Assetcommodity
Entry / triggerno risk to the upside
Target / exitpop of 80%
Invalidation / stopexplosive up moves
Speakerunknown
Trade idea
CL short put
The speaker is bullish on CL (Crude Oil) and is short puts, indicating a belief that the price will not fall significantly. The strategy involves selling out-of-the-money puts to collect premium, with the expectation that the underlying asset will remain above the strike price. The speaker acknowledges that the market may not sharply rise but believes in the continued premium collection through short puts.
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Strategyshort put
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggermarket on close
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom
Risks- If the price of CL falls below the strike price, the short put position could result in losses.
- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements, affecting the effectiveness of the strategy.
Trade idea
NG natural gas trade
The speaker suggests that natural gas (NG) is undervalued and could rebound quickly. The forward contract is at a low level (2.859), and the speaker warns that it can easily go to $4 in 3 days. However, the speaker also notes that it can easily drop back to $2, indicating a high volatility and potential for both upward and downward movement. The trade is based on the expectation of a rebound from the current low level.
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Strategynatural gas trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term (3 days)
Entry / triggernatural gas is at a low level (2.859) and has been down recently
Target / exitcould reach $4 in 3 days
Invalidation / stopcould drop back to $2
Speakerspeaker
Risks- High volatility
- Potential for rapid price drops
- Lack of options equivalent for precise trading
Trade idea
NG low-risk, low-reward
The speaker suggests selling the August 255 puts at a price of 284, which is 30 cents lower than the current price. The trade is considered low-risk due to the low implied volatility and the high probability of success (80%). The maximum profit is capped at $190, and the trade is a pure directional play. The speaker emphasizes that this is a low-risk, low-reward trade with a 10% return on capital over 45 days.
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Strategylow-risk, low-reward
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizon45 days
Entry / triggerPrice at 284, with a delta of 19
Target / exitMaximum profit of $190
Invalidation / stopPrice drops below 255
SpeakerTom
Risks- Unlimited downside risk if the price drops significantly
- Potential for lower-than-expected returns if the price does not move as anticipated
Trade idea
SLV put spread
The speaker sold a put spread on silver (SLV) at a dip, indicating a bullish outlook. The strategy involves buying the 48 put and selling the 51 put, which allows for profit if the price of silver rises above the short put strike price. The trade is considered a good entry point due to the dip in price, and the speaker is looking to capitalize on a potential rebound.
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Strategyput spread
Assetcommodity
Expirationlast week
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerdip in silver price
Target / exitprice increase
Invalidation / stopprice drop below 48
SpeakerTom
Risks- If the price of silver drops below the 48 put strike, the trade could result in a loss.
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the put spread strategy.
Trade idea
1 oz risk management
The speaker advises selling one contract of the 1 oz gold to reduce risk, as the price has dropped significantly from 4834 to 4502. The 1 oz gold contract is described as a dollar tick, indicating minimal price movement. The speaker suggests selling one contract to mitigate losses while keeping the remaining contracts for potential future gains.
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Strategyrisk management
Assetcommodity
Time horizonimmediate
Entry / triggerholding three contracts of 1 oz gold at a price of 4834, now at 4502
Target / exitreduce risk by selling one contract
Invalidation / stopno hedge for the 1 oz gold contract
SpeakerScott
Risks- loss of potential gains from the remaining contracts
- no hedge for the 1 oz gold contract
Trade idea
gold put selling
The speaker discusses selling puts in gold when the price was down $90, indicating a short position. The idea is to profit from a potential recovery in gold prices. The speaker acknowledges the risk of the market continuing to decline, which would invalidate the trade. The trade was executed based on the market's movement and the speaker's awareness of the opportunity.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggergold price drops significantly
Target / exitgold price recovers to a certain level
Invalidation / stopgold price continues to decline beyond expected levels
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market continues to decline
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected market volatility
Trade idea
gold selling puts
The speaker mentions being a buyer at higher prices in gold and silver, indicating a long position. They suggest selling puts as a strategy, which allows for a defined risk. The target is set at 4,200, with a stop at 4,000. The speaker also notes that buying gold outright would have been a losing proposition, suggesting that the put-selling strategy is more effective in this context.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerhigher prices
Target / exit4,200
Invalidation / stopunder 4,000
SpeakerTom Saznoff
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for large losses if the price drops below the stop level
Trade idea
Crude Oil selling puts
The speaker has been selling puts on crude oil, indicating a short bias. They note that crude has been volatile and that the market has been slightly bullish. The speaker suggests that selling puts is a better strategy than selling calls in this environment, as they believe the market is unlikely to move significantly higher. The speaker also mentions that the market has been up every day, suggesting a potential for a pullback.
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Strategyselling puts
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term to medium-term
Entry / triggermarket is in a range-bound or slightly bullish trend
Target / exitmarket reverts to a lower range or shows signs of weakness
Invalidation / stopmarket breaks above a key resistance level or shows strong bullish momentum
SpeakerScott
Risks- market moves against the short position
- volatility increases beyond expected levels
Trade idea
GC short puts
The speaker is short puts in gold (GC) at the 3500 strike price, having sold them a couple of days ago at around 19.5-20 bucks. The trade idea is based on the belief that gold will not trade above 3500, and the speaker is looking to profit from the premium collected. The strategy is considered a short-term trade, with the potential for profit if the price of gold remains below the strike price. The risk is that if gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated, and the speaker may have to buy back the puts at a higher price.
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Strategyshort puts
Assetcommodity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerSold puts at about 19.5-20 bucks
Target / exitProfit from the put selling strategy
Invalidation / stopIf gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- If gold price rises above 3500, the trade may be invalidated and the speaker may have to buy back the puts at a higher price.
Trade idea
Oil shorting during a rapid upward move
The speaker discusses their experience of shorting oil during a rapid upward move, where they sold at a lower price after the price retraced. The strategy involves identifying a rapid upward move and selling at a lower price after the price retraces. The entry condition is a rapid upward move, and the target is to sell at a lower price after the price retraces. The stop or invalidation is if the price continues to rise without retracing. The time horizon is short-term.
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Strategyshorting during a rapid upward move
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerDuring a rapid upward move in oil prices
Target / exitSell at a lower price after the price retraces
Invalidation / stopIf the price continues to rise without retracing
SpeakerBarry
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect timing of the trade
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
silver shorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
The speaker expresses a belief that silver is overvalued at its current price level, suggesting a short position as a potential trade. They acknowledge that their previous positions in silver were large and painful, indicating a need for caution. The thesis is based on the idea that price extremes can signal potential reversals, and the speaker is looking for a reversal to $84 as a target.
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Strategyshorting silver due to perceived overvaluation
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggersilver price above $120
Target / exitsilver price reverts to $84
Invalidation / stopsilver price continues to rise above $130
Speakerspeaker
Risks- Market volatility
- Unexpected demand spikes
- Incorrect price reversal
Trade idea
silver wheel strategy
The wheel strategy can be applied to silver by selling a put below the current market price and then selling calls against the position if the put is exercised. This strategy allows traders to generate income while being long the underlying asset. However, traders must be prepared for the risks associated with being long the underlying and short the corresponding put, which can lead to potential losses if the market moves against the position.
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Strategywheel strategy
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggershort put below market price
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerTom and Scott
Risks- potential for losses if market moves against position
- complexity of managing multiple positions
Trade idea
GC Consistent premium trading
Gold (GC) is recommended as a consistent commodity to trade due to its liquidity and stable price behavior. The speaker suggests that gold offers a reliable premium and is less volatile compared to other commodities like silver or crude oil. The strategy involves identifying and maintaining positions within a stable price range, with the goal of consistent returns. The invalidation level is a significant price deviation from the established range, which would indicate a shift in market conditions.
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StrategyConsistent premium trading
Assetcommodity
Time horizonLong-term
Entry / triggerPrice range stability and consistent premium yield
Target / exitPrice range maintenance
Invalidation / stopSignificant price deviation from the range
SpeakerScott Sheridan
Risks- Price volatility
- Market regime changes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Gold/Silver pair trade
The speaker proposes a short gold, long silver trade based on the gold-silver ratio. The trade is expected to profit from the ratio change, with the speaker noting that the trade has moved $4,000 since Friday. The speaker plans to execute the trade after the show, using micro contracts. The trade is considered a 'widowmaker' due to its potential for significant losses if the ratio moves against the trade.
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Strategypair trade
Assetcommodity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggershort two gold futures, long one silver futures
Target / exitprofit from the ratio change
Invalidation / stopif the ratio moves against the trade
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Significant losses if the gold-silver ratio moves against the trade
- Volatility in the markets could affect the trade's outcome
- The trade is not suitable for all traders due to its high risk profile
Trade idea
CL put selling
The speaker sold 64 puts on crude oil (CL) for $1.71, indicating a bearish outlook. The rationale is that crude oil prices had dropped back down, suggesting a potential for further declines. The trade idea is to profit from the put sale if the price continues to fall. The invalidation level is if crude oil prices rise significantly, which would reduce the value of the put options.
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Strategyput selling
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerCrude oil price drops
Target / exitProfit from the put sale
Invalidation / stopIf crude oil price rises significantly
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- If crude oil prices rise, the value of the put options will decrease, leading to potential losses.
- Market volatility could impact the effectiveness of the trade.
Trade idea
CL strangles
The speaker suggests that crude oil is a range-bound market with high implied volatility, making it suitable for short strangles or iron condors. By selling strangles at 70 and 150, traders can collect premium while profiting from the price range. The strategy relies on the market staying within the defined range, and the high implied volatility supports the potential for significant premium collection.
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Strategystrangles
Assetcommodity
Expirationcurrent
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerprice within the range of 80 to 110
Target / exitprofit from the wide price range and high implied volatility
Invalidation / stopprice breaking out of the range or significant volatility drop
SpeakerTom
Risks- Price breaking out of the range
- Volatility drop
- Market liquidity issues
Trade idea
Oil short put
The speaker discusses their short put position on oil, noting that the market has moved against their position. They mention covering a small portion of the position at $880 to reduce losses, indicating a strategy of limiting downside risk. The speaker acknowledges that the position was initially a disaster but has since been adjusted to cut losses by 60%.
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Strategyshort put
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerMarket movement against the short position
Target / exitPrice level of $880
Invalidation / stopPrice reaching $1250
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected price movements
Trade idea
silver scalping
The speaker believes that silver is overvalued and recommends shorting it, citing that the price has dropped from 9575 to 9425. The speaker has been shorting silver since Sunday night, scalping it without touching their core position, and has not made a losing trade. However, their core position has been significantly impacted. The speaker emphasizes that while shorting can be profitable, it requires careful execution and that the market may be overblown.
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Strategyscalping
Assetcommodity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerOvervaluation of silver
Target / exitPrice drop to 9425 or lower
Invalidation / stopPrice increase above 9575
SpeakerScott
Risks- Price increase above 9575
- Market volatility
- Execution risk in scalping strategy
Q&A
What is the current price of crude oil?
Crude oil is up 256 this morning.
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Actionable takeawayCrude oil has increased significantly this morning.