Trade idea
Bitcoin buying at a perceived bottom
The speaker suggests that Bitcoin is at a bottom and is a good value at 60K, despite its volatility. They recommend buying Bitcoin at this price, but emphasize the importance of diversification and not putting all funds into a single asset. The speaker also mentions a personal strategy of holding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with a long-term bullish outlook.
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Strategybuying at a perceived bottom
Assetcryptocurrency
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggerprice at 60K
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerDan
Risks- volatility
- market downturn
- overexposure to a single asset
Trade idea
Bitcoin buying during corrections and selling during rallies
The speaker believes that Bitcoin could trade into the 60s and 50s, which would allow for shorting the asset as some longs start to puke. The speaker wants Bitcoin to trade lower to create opportunities for shorting, as they believe the asset is non-levered and will be around for a long time. The strategy involves nibbling during corrections and selling during rallies.
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Strategybuying during corrections and selling during rallies
Assetcrypto
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerBitcoin trading into the 60s and 50s
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Risks- market volatility
- potential for further price drops
Trade idea
Bitcoin long-term holding
The speaker expresses a preference for trading Microsoft over Bitcoin, citing the latter's limited utility for retail traders. However, the speaker is long Bitcoin, indicating a belief in its long-term potential. The rationale is that Bitcoin's price movement and options market provide more trading opportunities compared to SOFR futures, which are not suitable for retail investors. The trade idea is based on the speaker's personal position and market sentiment, with the target price of 65,000 as a reference point.
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Strategylong-term holding
Assetcryptocurrency
Time horizonlong-term
Entry / triggercurrent market levels
Target / exit65,000
Invalidation / stopmarket downturn or significant volatility
SpeakerTom Styles
Risks- Market volatility
- Regulatory changes
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Bitcoin buying on the move
The speaker notes that Bitcoin has been moving up significantly, with a price increase of over 5,000 to almost 74,000. This indicates a strong upward trend, and the speaker suggests that this is a positive move for traders. The thesis is that the upward movement is a result of perceived opportunity, and traders should consider buying on the move. The entry condition is the price increase, and the target is the current price level. The stop or invalidation is a reversal in the trend or a significant market downturn.
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Strategybuying on the move
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerBitcoin catching a bid and moving up
Target / exit74,000
Invalidation / stopMarket conditions or a reversal in price trend
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential reversal in price trend
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
Bitcoin contrarian
If Michael Sailor is forced to liquidate Bitcoin, it could create a significant buying opportunity. The speaker suggests buying Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana at the bottom of such a crash, citing historical examples like the LTCM blow-up in 1998 and the 2020 market crash as precedents for contrarian buying opportunities. The speaker believes that a drop to 30,000 would be a buying opportunity, though they acknowledge it as a 'nasty' scenario.
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Strategycontrarian
Assetcrypto
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerforced liquidation event
Target / exit30,000
Invalidation / stopmarket crash
SpeakerAnton
Risks- Market volatility
- Potential for further declines
- Liquidity issues during a crash
Q&A
Has there been any research done on correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ as being a potential pairs trade or Bitcoin being a leading indicator for tech risk on markets?
The speaker suggests that while there is a correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, and NASDAQ also correlates with the S&P 500, the relationship between Bitcoin and NASDAQ is not well-defined. They mention that figuring out the ratio for a pairs trade is challenging and that using micro futures contracts could help determine the ratio. However, they do not explicitly recommend a trade.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker discusses the potential for a pairs trade between Bitcoin and NASDAQ but does not provide a concrete recommendation or execution strategy.
Q&A
Is Bitcoin a wise investment to continue to hold and what percentage of your portfolio do you recommend allocating to Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is considered a wise investment as long as it remains a small portion of the portfolio. The speaker recommends holding less than 1% of their portfolio in digital assets, with Bitcoin being a long-term holding. The rationale is that digital assets have shown positive returns and can add alpha to a portfolio, but they should be held in small quantities to manage risk.
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Actionable takeawayBitcoin should be held in small percentages of a portfolio due to its volatility and potential for long-term growth.
Q&A
What would you have thought the percentage of people holding Bitcoin was?
The speaker initially thought the percentage would be around 10%, but the poll results showed 37% of the audience holding Bitcoin.
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Actionable takeawayThe poll results indicate a higher percentage of audience members holding Bitcoin than the speaker anticipated.
Q&A
What is the current state of the market?
The market is experiencing mixed performance, with some indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 showing declines, while others like Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising. The speaker notes that the market is in a rotation phase, with certain stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft performing well while others like AMD and Microsoft are underperforming.
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Actionable takeawayThe market is in a rotation phase, with certain stocks outperforming others. Investors should be aware of the mixed performance and consider the rotation in their trading strategies.
Q&A
What are the tickers that are always on Tom and Scott's watch list?
Tom and Scott's watch list includes SPX, IWM, Qs, Bitcoin, oil, ES, micro gold, Nasdaq, micro silver, VIX future, bonds, Apple, AMD, and Amazon. They emphasize the importance of monitoring futures as leading indicators.
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Actionable takeawayTraders should monitor futures as leading indicators and include them in their watch lists.
Q&A
Are you dabbling in Bitcoin?
The speaker confirms they are dabbling in Bitcoin, having bought it at around $595. They also mention buying Ethereum and Salana at lower prices, but note that Salana has dropped significantly.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is actively involved in crypto trading, with specific entries and price points mentioned.
Q&A
What price level in Bitcoin would you consider a buy?
The speaker is willing to buy Bitcoin at price levels as low as $20, with the goal of holding it for 10 years. The speaker believes that Bitcoin could recover from its current price decline, similar to how gold has historically rebounded. The speaker also mentions that they would buy Ethereum at similar price levels.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is a long-term buyer of digital assets, willing to purchase at lower price levels with the expectation of long-term value appreciation.
Q&A
Do you think Bitcoin orders are helping to keep Bitcoin from dropping further, or does the fact that most futures are cash settled mean orders can't keep the floor on it?
The speaker believes that Bitcoin futures do not play a significant role in keeping the floor on Bitcoin's price. They argue that Bitcoin futures are largely hedged off and not a speculator's market. The speaker also notes that Bitcoin is classified as 'dead freaking money,' meaning it is held long-term with little intention of selling, regardless of price fluctuations.
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Actionable takeawayBitcoin futures are not a significant factor in maintaining price floors, and the market is characterized by long-term holding rather than active trading.
Q&A
What is the current state of the market?
The market is experiencing significant volatility, with the S&P 500 down 30 points at the opening, rallying to a 15-point decline, and then falling further to a 65-point decline. Other assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also down, while the VIX is up.
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Actionable takeawayThe market is showing signs of fear and uncertainty, with multiple assets declining and the VIX indicating increased volatility.
Q&A
What is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin?
The speaker acknowledges that the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is unclear and that it is difficult to determine. They suggest that the market's perception of value is more relevant than traditional fundamentals for digital assets.
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Actionable takeawayInvestors should consider market perception rather than traditional fundamentals when evaluating the value of digital assets like Bitcoin.
Q&A
Is this a sustainable breakout?
The speaker is questioning whether the recent Bitcoin price increase is a sustainable breakout.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is uncertain about the sustainability of Bitcoin's recent price increase.
Q&A
What are the current market conditions?
The markets are showing minimal movement, with the S&P and NASDAQ unchanged. Gold and silver have shown upward movement, with gold up almost five dollars and silver up 89,000. Bitcoin and Ethereum have also seen some movement, with Bitcoin catching a bid and Ethereum rising above $3,000. Bonds are stuck in a range, with the 114s at 11521. The implied volatility (IV) in the bond market is very low.
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Actionable takeawayTraders should be aware of the low volatility in the bond market and the higher volatility in commodities like gold and silver.
Q&A
What are the best ETFs to use for BTC and ETH?
The speaker recommends ETHA for Ethereum and BTO for Bitcoin. They note that ETHA has high volatility and is the primary ETF for Ethereum, while BTO has the most option volume for Bitcoin. The speaker also mentions trading IBIT and BITO, but prefers BTO for its volume and liquidity.
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Actionable takeawayFor Ethereum, ETHA is recommended due to its high volume and liquidity. For Bitcoin, BTO is suggested due to its high option volume and liquidity.
Q&A
What's the biggest story of the last two days?
The biggest story of the last two days is the rally in Bitcoin.
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Actionable takeawayBitcoin experienced a significant rally, which is highlighted as the biggest story.