LD Lossdog Research
topic

natural gas

7 matching records.

Trade idea

natural gas strangle

The speaker suggests selling strangles with deltas between 16 and 20, placing calls 2.5 times further out of the money than puts. This strategy accounts for the asymmetric risk profile of natural gas, where upside potential is theoretically unlimited while downside is capped. The speaker also mentions that straddles are not suitable for natural gas due to its high volatility and limited downside potential.

View full notes
Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonnot specified
Entry / triggerwhen natural gas is trading under three bucks
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopif natural gas moves significantly against the position
SpeakerVince
Structure / legs
  • call
  • put
Risks
  • significant downside risk if natural gas moves against the position
  • limited upside potential if natural gas remains within the strangle range
shortcommodityshortstranglenatural gas
high confidenceVerify in video at 14:26 ↗
Trade idea

natural_gas strangle

The speaker is long strangles on natural gas, indicating a bullish outlook. They mention experiencing significant daily moves (10% to 50%) and are considering rolling positions or taking a loss. The strategy involves profiting from volatility, with the speaker acknowledging the risks of large moves and the need for a therapist due to the stress involved.

View full notes
Strategystrangle
Assetcommodity
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggermarket move
Target / exitnot specified
Invalidation / stopnot specified
SpeakerScott
Structure / legs
  • call
  • put
Risks
  • Large price swings
  • Volatility risk
  • Emotional stress from high-risk trades
longcommoditylongstrangleshort-termnatural gas
medium confidenceVerify in video at 22:54 ↗
Trade idea

natural_gas strangle

The speaker is short strangles on natural gas, adjusting positions daily by buying the guts and selling them back out. The strategy involves maintaining small positions and adjusting based on IV levels. The thesis is that the price will reverse or the IV will drop, allowing for profit. However, the risk is that the price could continue to rise, invalidating the trade.

View full notes
Strategystrangle
Assetfutures
Expirationcurrent_month
Time horizonshort-term (days to weeks)
Entry / triggerprice near 20-30 delta
Target / exitprice reversal or IV drop to 90
Invalidation / stopprice continues to rise beyond 30 delta or IV remains above 130
Speakertrader
Structure / legs
  • calls
  • puts
Risks
  • High volatility can lead to rapid losses
  • Price could continue to rise beyond expected levels
  • IV may not drop as anticipated
shortfuturesshortstranglenatural gas
medium confidenceVerify in video at 25:17 ↗
Q&A

Why is there a discrepancy between natural gas prices in the UK/Europe and Henry Hub prices?

The speaker suggests that the discrepancy may be due to transportation costs, which make arbitrage unprofitable. They also note that the situation is unusual and that historical examples, such as the negative oil prices five years ago, indicate that market forces should correct such imbalances, but this has not occurred in the current context.

View full notes
Actionable takeawayTransportation costs may be a key factor in the current price discrepancy, making arbitrage unfeasible.
arbitrageMarket Outlooknatural gas
medium confidenceVerify in video at 42:17 ↗
Q&A

Is it wrong to sell a straddle in natural gas?

The speaker suggests that selling straddles is not ideal for natural gas due to its high volatility and limited downside potential. Strangles are preferred as they allow for skew consideration and better risk management.

View full notes
Actionable takeawayStrangles are preferred over straddles in natural gas trading due to the commodity's high volatility and limited downside potential.
natural gasOptions
high confidenceVerify in video at 14:26 ↗
Q&A

What are you thinking about natural gas?

From the long side

View full notes
Actionable takeawayConsider long positions in natural gas
natural gas
medium confidenceVerify in video at 01:40 ↗
Q&A

What markets have you been trading recently?

The speaker has been trading silver and natural gas, with a focus on strangles. They mention experiencing significant daily moves in natural gas and are considering rolling positions or taking a loss.

View full notes
Actionable takeawayThe speaker is actively trading volatile markets with strangle strategies, indicating a focus on volatility and market moves.
Market Outlooknatural gassilverTrading Strategyvolatility
high confidenceVerify in video at 22:40 ↗