Trade idea
NVIDIA Call options on NVIDIA
If the stock price is around 310-330, and the IVR is low, the call options could be considered relatively cheap. The strategy is to buy call options on NVIDIA if the stock price is around 310-330, assuming the IVR is low. The target is for the stock price to rise above 320, which would indicate a bullish trend. The stop or invalidation is if the stock price falls below 310, indicating a bearish trend. The time horizon is short-term, as the options are for a one-year expiration.
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StrategyCall options on NVIDIA
Assetstock
Expirationone year
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerStock price around 310-330
Target / exitStock price rising above 320
Invalidation / stopStock price falling below 310
SpeakerTony
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect assumption about IVR
- Liquidity issues in options
Trade idea
Nvidia range breakout
The speaker believes that Nvidia is at the upper end of a range and expects a reversal to the downside. They sold some shares based on this expectation, anticipating a pullback. The speaker also mentions the potential for a gap up on the next day, suggesting a short-term reversal strategy. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will retrace from the upper range boundary.
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Strategyrange breakout
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerPrice at the upper end of a range
Target / exitPrice reversal to the downside
Invalidation / stopPrice continuation above the range
SpeakerJim
Risks- Price continues to the upside
- Volatility may not materialize as expected
- Earnings report could impact sentiment
Trade idea
NVDA call ratio spreads
The speaker executed a call ratio spread by buying the 05s and selling the 10s, expecting a 5% move in Nvidia. The trade was initiated with a small credit or debit, and the speaker acknowledges that the trade could be improved. The thesis is based on the expectation of a limited price movement, with the trade designed to profit from a downward move or a limited upward move.
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Strategycall ratio spreads
Assetequity
Expirationtwo days
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia's current price at 196
Target / exit5% move
Invalidation / stopif the stock moves beyond the 10s strike
SpeakerTom
Risks- If the stock moves beyond the 10s strike, the trade could result in a loss.
- The trade is sensitive to volatility and the accuracy of the expected move.
Trade idea
NVDA sell on a higher print
The speaker is considering selling Nvidia futures if the stock rises, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. The rationale is that a higher print may signal a potential reversal or overbought condition, prompting a sell decision. The trade is based on the expectation that the stock may not sustain the upward movement, and the speaker is prepared to act if the price increases.
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Strategysell on a higher print
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerif Nvidia goes up tonight
Invalidation / stopif the price does not rise
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- Market volatility could lead to unexpected price movements.
- The trade is based on a short-term outlook, which may not account for longer-term trends.
Trade idea
Nvidia selling upside calls
The speaker suggests selling upside calls on Nvidia as a strategy to profit from potential price declines while limiting downside risk. However, the speaker acknowledges that this is not an easy trade and requires precise timing. The speaker also notes that shorting Nvidia has been a poor strategy in the past, indicating the need for careful execution and market analysis.
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Strategyselling upside calls
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen the stock is overvalued and the market is expected to decline
Target / exitprofit from the premium collected if the stock price remains below the strike price
Invalidation / stopif the stock price rises significantly above the strike price, the trade could result in substantial losses
Speakerunknown
Risks- significant losses if the stock price rises
- difficulty in timing the market
- potential for large losses if the stock price moves against the position
Trade idea
Nvidia Shorting calls on Nvidia
The speaker sold 205 puts and 250 calls on Nvidia, expecting limited price movement. The trade is based on the assumption that the stock will not move significantly, allowing the seller to profit from the premium. The speaker plans to cover the position at $1.50 if the price reaches that level, aiming for a 25% return. The trade is considered high-risk due to the potential for significant price movements.
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StrategyShorting calls on Nvidia
AssetEquity
ExpirationFriday
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia closes at 204
Target / exit167
Invalidation / stopIf the price rises above 250
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks- Significant price movement in either direction
- Failure to cover the position at the planned price
- Market volatility leading to unexpected outcomes
Trade idea
Nvidia strangle
The speaker executed a strangle on Nvidia with strikes at 205 and 250, collecting $200 on a one lot. The trade allows for a higher probability of profit and a greater credit compared to a defined risk strategy like an iron condor. The trader is comfortable with the extra risk for the potential higher return, and the trade can be adjusted based on the expected move.
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Strategystrangle
Assetstock
Expirationnot specified
Time horizonNot explicitly stated, but the trade was executed in the morning.
Entry / triggerMarket volatility is high, and the trader is comfortable with undefined risk.
Target / exitNot explicitly stated, but the trader collected $200 on a one lot.
Invalidation / stopNot explicitly stated, but the trader mentions the expected move and the potential for being two times the expected move.
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Higher risk compared to defined risk strategies
- Potential for larger losses if the market moves against the trade
Trade idea
Nvidia Sell Puts
The speaker suggests selling puts on Nvidia as a strategy to collect premium while potentially buying the stock at a lower price. They argue that buying calls is not ideal for Nvidia due to the lack of a clear target and the risk of wasting premium. Instead, selling puts allows the trader to benefit from the premium and potentially own the stock at a discounted price if the stock is below the strike price at expiration. The speaker also notes that the stock is currently at the low end of its range, making it a potential candidate for a short-term trade.
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StrategySell Puts
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term to medium-term
Entry / triggerIf the market is expected to remain stable and the stock is within a range
Target / exitTo collect premium while potentially buying the stock at a lower price
Invalidation / stopIf the stock breaks below the put strike price
SpeakerThe speaker
Risks- The stock could fall below the put strike price, resulting in a loss
- Market volatility could impact the stock price
- The trader may be forced to buy the stock at a higher price than expected
Trade idea
NVDA synthetic strangle
The synthetic strangle is a strategy that allows the trader to collect premium while limiting risk. The trader is bullish on Nvidia and believes that the stock will rally, which would make the put side of the trade profitable. The call spread is expected to be worth around $7 if the stock rallies to $200-$215. The trader is willing to take a risk to the downside if the stock moves significantly against the position.
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Strategysynthetic strangle
Assetequity
ExpirationAugust
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerNvidia is trading around $194
Target / exitCollecting $3.40 to $15 bucks or more
Invalidation / stopIf the put side of the trade is not trading for a buck or two, the trade may not be profitable
SpeakerBat
Structure / legs- Sell 20/15 call spread
- Sell August put
Risks- Risk to the downside if the stock moves significantly against the position
- Risk of the put side of the trade not being profitable
- Risk of the call spread not being worth the expected amount
Trade idea
NVIDIA Strangle
The speaker sold out-of-the-money puts on NVIDIA at the 75 level expiring tomorrow and executed a one-for-two call ratio spread by buying the 205 and selling the 210s. The trade was successful as the puts were bought back for 10 cents and the call spread yielded about 15 cents. The strategy relies on the price remaining within the expected range, and the speaker noted that the trade worked out despite the overall market conditions.
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StrategyStrangle
AssetEquity
ExpirationTomorrow
Time horizonShort-term (within a day)
Entry / triggerPrice opens down $2
Target / exit15 cents profit from the call spread
Invalidation / stopIf the price moves beyond the expected range
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- Sell out-of-the-money puts at the 75 level expiring tomorrow
- Buy a one-for-two call ratio spread with the 205 sold and 210s bought
Risks- Price moves beyond the expected range
- Volatility changes
- Market conditions affecting the trade
Trade idea
NVIDIA sell earnings
The speaker proposed selling NVIDIA futures ahead of the earnings announcement, anticipating a negative market reaction. The trade was executed as a short position on futures, with the expectation that the earnings would lead to a decline in the stock price. The speaker noted that the trade was not successful, indicating that the market reaction did not align with the initial thesis.
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Strategysell earnings
Assetequity
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNVIDIA earnings announcement
Invalidation / stopmarket reaction to earnings
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility around earnings announcements
- Incorrect earnings guidance leading to adverse price movement
- Liquidity issues in futures markets
Trade idea
NVIDIA shorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
The speaker suggests shorting NVIDIA after a significant drop, indicating a belief that the stock may continue to decline. The rationale is based on the idea that the stock has already dropped significantly and that the market may continue to punish it, especially if there are underlying issues such as earnings disappointments or broader market sentiment. The speaker also mentions that the stock is down $10, which is seen as a potential opportunity to short it further.
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Strategyshorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock price down by $10
Target / exitprice drops to $30
Invalidation / stopprice rises above $40
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market reversal
- Liquidity issues
- Unexpected earnings reports
Trade idea
Nvidia call spread
The speaker suggests a call spread strategy for Nvidia, selling the 225 235 call spread and buying the 160 put, with a target of collecting a 265 credit. The trade is based on the belief that the stock is in a range and that a significant upward move is unlikely. The speaker references a similar trade executed in August, indicating a pattern of using this strategy when the stock is in a range and the trader is moderately bullish.
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Strategycall spread
Assetstock
ExpirationAugust 21st
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price around 196
Target / exitCollect a 265 credit
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly higher or lower
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- sell the 225 235 call spread
- buy the 160 put
Risks- Potential for the stock to move beyond the strike prices
- Volatility could impact the trade's profitability
- Market conditions may change rapidly
Trade idea
NVIDIA covered call
The speaker believes that NVIDIA is a strong stock with significant valuation potential, and the covered call strategy allows for capturing upside while limiting downside risk. The trade is considered viable if the stock price moves within a 20-30% range, with the strike price set near the current price of 170. The speaker acknowledges that the stock could move lower, but the trade is still considered favorable due to the potential for a large move.
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Strategycovered call
Assetequity
ExpirationApril
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerStock price near 170
Target / exitPrice movement of 20-30%
Invalidation / stopMarket downturn or significant price drop
SpeakerSpeaker
Structure / legs- strike price: 174
- expiration: April
- credit received: not specified
- probability of profit: not specified
Risks- Market downturn
- Price volatility
- Limited upside potential
Trade idea
Nvidia Strangles
The speaker shorted strangles and a ratio spread call, expecting the stock to move within the expected range. However, the stock did not move significantly, leading to a loss on the premium sold. The thesis was based on the assumption that the stock would move within the expected range, but the actual movement was minimal, resulting in a non-event. The strategy was to capitalize on the expected move, but the lack of movement invalidated the trade.
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StrategyStrangles
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the expected move is higher than the current price movement
Target / exitUncertain, based on market movement
Invalidation / stopIf the stock moves significantly beyond the expected move
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market volatility
- Incorrect expected move prediction
- Liquidity issues
Trade idea
NVIDIA Earnings-driven
The speaker suggests that Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday could be a significant factor influencing the market. The speaker notes that Nvidia's performance is a bigger play than the State of the Union address, indicating that the market is closely watching the company's results. The speaker also mentions that Nvidia and Apple are strong, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock. The speaker does not have a position in Nvidia, but the potential for a positive move following the earnings report is highlighted.
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StrategyEarnings-driven
Assetequity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerEarnings report on Wednesday
Target / exitPrice movement following earnings report
Invalidation / stopMarket downturn or underperformance relative to expectations
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Market volatility
- Underperformance of Nvidia relative to expectations
- Overall market downturn
Trade idea
NVIDIA shorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
The speaker mentions that NVIDIA has dropped $6 and expresses a desire for it to rise. This indicates a short-term trade idea where the speaker is shorting NVIDIA, expecting a reversal or a rise in price. The trade is based on the speaker's personal sentiment and the recent price movement of the stock.
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Strategyshorting a stock that has experienced a significant drop
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerNVIDIA down $6
Target / exitNVIDIA higher
Invalidation / stopNVIDIA continues to decline
SpeakerTom Sosnoff
Risks- Market reversal
- Unexpected news affecting the stock
Q&A
What is the current performance of Google and other stocks?
Google's stock is up nine bucks, making it the strongest stock of the day. AMD is up 42, Nvidia is up almost six bucks, and Apple is up almost two bucks. These gains indicate strong performance in specific stocks, though the overall market volatility is subdued.
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Actionable takeawayCertain stocks are performing well, but the overall market is showing reduced volatility.
Q&A
Is Nvidia's Jensen Hung financing the AOP buildout a sign of something?
It's a sign of potential AI investment, but the speaker is skeptical about it being a bubble.
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Actionable takeawayNvidia's investment in AI may indicate a bubble, but the speaker is uncertain.
Q&A
How big of an event is Nvidia versus the treasury market? Which one's bigger?
The Treasury market is bigger than Nvidia, but on a for traders, Nvidia's huge compared to treasuries.
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Actionable takeawayThe Treasury market is larger than Nvidia, but Nvidia is significant for traders.
Q&A
Will Nvidia be the most valuable company by the end of 2028?
The speaker is unsure and says 'Sure, why not?' but leans towards Apple, suggesting that no one would say yes.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is uncertain about Nvidia's future valuation and suggests that Apple might be a better bet.
Q&A
Strategically how do I best take advantage of getting my best uh
If the call is in the money and the stock is above the strike, the profit is already realized. If the trader wants to keep the stock, they can do nothing and the position will expire. If they want to continue the position, they can buy back the call and sell another one.
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Actionable takeawayIf the call is in the money and the stock is above the strike, the profit is already realized. If the trader wants to keep the stock, they can do nothing and the position will expire.
Q&A
That is the most I want to sell on Nvidia this year for tax purposes.
Roll calls forward to avoid assignment risk and large tax bill.
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Actionable takeawayRoll calls forward to avoid assignment risk and large tax bill.
Q&A
What do you think about Nvidia?
The speaker believes that Nvidia's stock is fully priced, with all the risk concentrated on the downside. They do not expect a crash but note that the stock is vulnerable to further declines.
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Actionable takeawayNvidia's stock is considered overbought with significant downside risk, and the speaker advises caution.
Q&A
What are you guys going to do for Nvidia earnings?
The speaker mentioned selling futures ahead of the earnings announcement, anticipating a negative market reaction. The trade was executed as a short position on futures, with the expectation that the earnings would lead to a decline in the stock price. The speaker noted that the trade was not successful, indicating that the market reaction did not align with the initial thesis.
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Actionable takeawayAnticipating negative market reactions to earnings announcements can lead to short-term trading opportunities, but the success of such strategies depends on accurate market sentiment and timing.
Q&A
What was the expected move for the stock?
The expected move for the stock was initially thought to be around $12, but it fluctuated, ending at $12 again. The speaker noted that the stock did not move significantly, which affected the effectiveness of the premium selling strategy.
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Actionable takeawayThe expected move is a critical factor in premium selling strategies, and its accuracy is essential for the success of such trades.
Q&A
Do you have anything in Nvidia waiting?
The speaker does not have a position in Nvidia but has a position in MU, which is considered fine. The speaker is also long Netflix and short some puts on various strike prices.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is managing multiple positions across different assets, including long and short positions in equities and options.